Try that again. [Patrick Barron]

Fee Fi Foe Film: Notre Dame Defense 2019 Comment Count

Seth October 25th, 2019 at 9:51 AM

Previously: The Offense

Resources: My charting, ND game notes, ND roster with oddly specific heights, CFBstats

Those who lost track of Notre Dame back when we were on hiatus missed the Brian VanGorder defense. Those who didn't grow up in football in Michigan in the 1980s shouldn't be surprised when those that did all have VanGorder stories. Bowling Green's 119th-ranked defense is generating them now. I've got one I might share one day too. But ping a Notre Dame fan and you'll get all you need. Remember the year they went 4-8 (and Michigan State was 3-9?) That team was 82nd against the pass.

In 2017 they hired Mike Elko, who instituted a 4-2-5 under with tiny linebackers and a safety at the hybrid "Rover" position. In 2018 Elko left ND to his able assistant Clark Lea, the former LBs coach, who moved the rover inside for even tinier linebackers. This year they had to replace their best player at every level, and both of the linebackers. Again they moved the latest Rover to the weakside LB spot and drew in the next safety-like object. They also returned both All-If You Belonged to a Conference safeties, and a pair of defensive ends PFF thought were the best in the league, plus a Uche-like edge rushing specialist whose season unfortunately ended a few weeks ago. They've also somehow gotten even smaller across the middle, and make up for it by flinging them all at the line of scrimmage every snap.

The film: Georgia again because USC runs an Air Raid and we're going to be playing in a rainstorm unless the powers that be tell TV to go screw and move the game to noon for the safety and well-being of 113,000 people.

Personnel: My diagram:

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PDF Version, full-size version (or click on the image)

Again, take all scores in context. Notre Dame plays balls out with their linebackers to make up for their and the DTs' size issues, and that puts a lot of pressure on the secondary to make tackles and the ends to compress the line of scrimmage and get to the quarterback. We'll start with the DEs. Starting with the ends, SDE Khalid Kareem (+9.5/-5.5) is a Wormley-type tight end destroyer whom Georgia edged successfully a few times on read plays, and "Drop End" (WDE) Julian Okwara (+6.5/-3, –2 in coverage) is a standup DE/OLB hybrid except he's useless in coverage and extremely scary as a pass rusher. Inside they roll with most a three-man group of NG Kurt Hinish (+9.5/-3.5) who's solid, 3-Tech Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa (+10/-6) who's variable, and true freshman (composite #172) NT Jacob Lacey, with 3-tech/5-tech swingman Jayson Ademilola (composite #172) preferable to the available ends when someone else needs a spell.

I think they're lying about weights at linebacker. Maybe not for MLB Drew White (+6.5/-9.5 run, +0/-3 cov), a burst of acceleration who will get to the right hole if you point him straight at it. But former hybrid space player WLB Asmar Bilal (+3/-2 run, +1/-1 cov) still looks and plays like a defensive back, and has to shoot things aggressively or risk getting manhandled. The new "Rover" (HSP) Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (+9.5/-4 run, +0/-2 cov) mostly impressed me—he's the defense's wild child and used more or less how you would want a guy like him to be. The main backup is WLB Jack Lamb (+1/-1 run, +0/-1 cov) who spells Bilal on passing downs (mostly so he can pass rush), and a few snaps here and there for the true sophomores, old fashioned Pennsylvanian linebacker Bo Bauer (DNC), top-100 athlete Shayne Simon (DNC), and backup Rover Paul Moala (+1/-1).

The secondary features a lot of guys Michigan fought for, starting with speedster FCB Troy Pride Jr. (+0/-1 run, +2/-2 cov), an excellent Cover 2 cornerback who's got the size and speed but perhaps not the oomf to play as strongly in man on Georgia's well-endowed group of wideouts. BCB TaRiq Bracy (+0/-0 run, +2/-3 cov) is a widdle guy with some fight in him, and split time with a more extreme version of himself, forever-eligible starting nickel/former Brady Hoke commit Nk Shaun Crawford (+1/-3 run, +5/-2 cov), who's expected back this week from his latest foray onto the DL. Crawford's YMRMFSPA Blake Countess that Brian never got to write nonetheless still holds.

I do like the safeties a lot. FS Alohi Gilman (+6/-3.5 run, +0/-0 cov) is the Navy transfer ball-hawk who reminded you of Kovacs last year and will do so another ten times this year even though he's faster than Kovacs ever was. He's also not nearly as strong—UGA still has D'Andre Swift, who took Gilman for some piggy-back rides in this game. SS Jalen Elliott (+7/-2 run, +0/-1 cov) is very fast, especially when coming up in run support, and mostly mistake-free. He does fine on slot receivers. FS Kyle Hamilton (+0.5/-1 run, +0/-0 cov) joins them as a rangy middle-1/3rd coverage safety on passing downs.

[After THE JUMP: BLITZBALLLLLLLLL]

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Base Set: They're a committed 4-2-5 Under.

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That is until passing downs, when they brought out a 3-2-6 dime package with an Okie front and one more DB than receivers back on the line to gain.

The personnel on these was a 3-tech (Tagovailoa-Amosa), two DEs (Kareem & Okwara or Hayes), the regular secondary plus Crawford and Hamilton, Jack Lamb, and either both HSPs or Owusu-Koramoah and an extra pass rushing specialist. So no nose guard, and both regular ILBs come off the field.

ND vs UGA Personnel   LBs vs Run or PA   Safeties   Rushers
Down Type 4-2-5 3-2-6 Sorta Hard Balls Out 0-high 1-high 2-high 3 4 5 6+
Standard (36) 97% 3% 13% 87% 11% 38% 51% - 46% 19% 35%
Passing (16) 70% 30% 30% 70% 4% 26% 70% 4% 78% 13% 4%
Total (52) 52 8 7 34 5 20 35 1 35 10 14

They like to blitz you see. They were also 95% under-shifted on standard downs; I charted just three plays, not counting the 3-2-6 stuff, when they used and over or even front. If they want to change it up they slant instead. And bring linebackers.

What Shall We Call the Hybrid Today?: Rover. It's comparable to the viper, although he doesn't ever take on true safety roles like Khaleke sometimes has to. The rover relates to the tight end and holds the edge most plays.

Man or zone coverage: Cover 2 with plenty of Cover 1 and even some Cover Zero because....

Pressure: GERG or GREG: More like TENUTAAAAA!

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Here I remind you that I add a lot of half rushes when the linebackers start with a blitz but hold up if the offensive player they relate to goes out in a pattern. We'll talk more about why they do this and how they pull it off in the overview.

Dangerman: I found a lot of them. Let's just work our way from the top of the beef chain:

PFF thinks drop end Julian Okwara and strongside end Khalid Kareem were the best edge duo in the nation:

Kareem was named by PFF’s lead draft analyst, Mike Renner, as the most versatile edge defender in the 2020 draft class. Whether he is lined up at 3-tech, 5-tech, or 6/7-tech, Kareem thrived and often beat the opposition. He spent a majority of his time at 6/7-tech and finished 10th in pass-rush grade and 20th in win rate at that alignment. Overall, Kareem beat his defender but didn’t record a pressure (due to a quick release by the quarterback) the second-most times among edge rushers last season, but he also had five batted passes (fifth-most).

It's hard to argue, having seen what they did to Runyan and JBB in their debut last year. Kareem especially grates because he's from Farmington Hills Harrison, and grew up on my (and Matt from Endless Motor's) street. I pass by the damn Notre Dame flag all the time. He's a pure Anchor type, and the guy most likely to get a double or at least a chip. He also picked up a zillion +0.5s (I started just writing "K" in the chart) in the run game for having his gap shut or shoving a lineman back inside. He's probably a Day 2 prospect in the NFL because he doesn't have the pure speed they look for out of ends and he's not big enough for tackle. I don't remember complaining when we had Chris Wormley. However UGA did find a way to punish Kareem's edge speed by making him the zone read guy and getting a shuffle.

Please forward to your nearest Shea Patterson along with your weekly "KEEP ON THE SHUFFLE SHEA!" gift basket.

Drop End Julian Okwara is a step above Uche as a pure pass rusher. PFF:

Okwara comes into the season as a top-three edge defender and the 14th overall prospect in the 2020 class according to the PFF Draft Guide. With ranking fourth in pass-rush win rate (23.9%) and second in pressure rate (20.5%) among returning edge defenders, there’s no question Okwara has proven his dominance. Okwara spent most of his 2018 season lined up at outside linebacker where he recorded the fifth-highest PFF grade, 56 total pressures (most by five), the second-highest pressure rate and the second-highest pass-rush win rate. Furthermore, Okwara’s play certainly did not falter when facing only Power Five programs, as he ranked first in pressure rate, second in win rate and sixth in overall grade, with his teammate Khalid Kareem being not too far behind at 13th.

Georgia boosters invested a lot of money into offensive tackles and it paid dividends in this game, barely. I don't look forward to seeing what happens when #42 goes against Jon Runyan and Jalen Mayfield. Or Taylor Decker and Ricky Wagner for that matter.

The thing Okwara is not, despite technically playing a linebacker/DE hybrid position, is a linebacker:

Drop-backs were rare and all went like this. His run defense was also suspect because he's so keen on getting upfield. He's 240-something, slippery, but not huge. If you get a kick on him he'll give ground. If you try to edge him he'll chase you down with safety speed.

Getting to the edge on Kareem's side is difficult because they've got a perfect hybrid space player in Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, whom we're calling JOK from now on so I don't have to keep copy-pasting those letters (for the record the Bentley now has the Opong-Owusus fixed but it took over a decade). JOK is a harpoon.

Is he flawed in coverage? Certainly. He also generates fumbles, has crazy long arms to keep tight ends from blocking him, and goes fast in a single direction, which would be plenty. Sometimes though he makes a play where you're just…where'd he come from?

Also they already have plenty in the way of safeties. Again, PFF put out charts that said Elite.

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That list has a lot of pattern-matching guys who faced a lot of bad offenses but Georgia avoided all passing at these guys unless it was quite a bit under them. Jalen Elliott, the strong safety, is another guy on this team who keeps a stack of mushrooms on his mario kart.

#21 safety on the top

And Alohi Gilman, the Navy transfer, is a ball magnet who's leading the team in tackles because…

#11 safety on the bottom

Finally the very fast cornerback, Troy Pride Jr. is very very fast. PFF went bonkers over this in the offseason:

When in zone coverage and targeted 10-plus yards downfield, Pride may be the best in the game as he put up an impressive 86.7 coverage grade in that scenario, the second-highest among all returning FBS cornerbacks last season. On those targets, he allowed just three catches on 18 targets (16.7% catch rate) and a 17.1 passer rating. Unsurprisingly, he also had 10 forced incompletions on those targets, tying for third-most among returning cornerbacks. Over his time in South Bend, Pride Jr.’s coverage play on deep targets of 20-plus yards has reached elite status. Allowing just four receptions on 24 targets, he is the 10th-highest-graded cornerback on deep targets all-time and has the highest deep forced incompletion rate in the PFF College era (since 2014).

I think I caught a bad game from him, though it's noteworthy the other cornerbacks, who split snaps, both had more targets their way than Pride. He's not Julian Love, but he was a good compliment to the star boundary corner who's since moved on, and has that Jourdan Lewis thing where he makes you think your receiver is open before dashing back into phase once the ball's out. If he has a weakness it's big receivers can body him, but he's not small.

OVERVIEW:

I was trying to remember where I've seen a defense playing like this: blitzing the linebackers on every down and pulling the string if the guy they're on goes elsewhere, bringing the safeties down to replace them, and daring you to find a gap in a sea of bodies or chuck it down the sideline. And then it hit me: the other team that had a Tranquill playing linebacker:

This is the WMU defense, with far better talent, and the linebackers don't go in the wrong holes. It's a hell of a way to play football because the long run is always one guy's bad fit away from breaking. Notre Dame manages to not break, so it works. Or at least it makes it hard:

The preseason concerns at DT probably don't apply to the starters. Both battled to well into the positive late, outlasting Georgia's linemen in endurance despite rarely subbing out and playing 20 or so pounds under 300.

The preseason concerns at LB were well-founded—whenever those guys had to read something it was an adventure. That was maybe five times because the other times they were doing this:

Watch #6 as he gets past the tight end and sets an edge. What does it matter if he was sitting back where Khaleke sets up or inside like an old fashioned SAM if he's going to do the same Viper stuff anyway? And how do you get #40 to the wrong side of a block or take advantage of #22's size when they're running right at run game from the snap?

That takes some athleticism to pull off and not get pass-in-the-flatted to death, but Notre Dame manages it by making their safeties deal with underneath stuff too. The downside of this is sometimes it's a safety making contact with the back's mass times his acceleration.

Georgia got a lot of yards with three- and four-verts, both by chucking it to a receiver in single coverage and underneath when a linebacker bit and then got turned around trying to get back to his zone. Linebackers in trail coverage is a thing. Speed at the linebacker position is the reason they do it; better to bring them down to their gaps early and trust them to bail quickly if needed rather than deal with what occurs when a lineman gets out on these guys.

This style is great against RPOs. Those safeties are playing the slants so the read is always give, and then the read has given those linebackers time to hit their gaps and worm into them. The speed and all the reactions to the backs makes the latest Gattis stuff obsolete. So what do you do with this? We could just put it up to Nico Collins. Here are back-to-back plays with the two wee boundary corners versus a Nico-like:

Maybe not in a rainstorm? Okay if it's really bad I'd be fine with just eight or ten of these shots.

But I also believe you can and should puncture holes in that front, because once they've all run at the line there isn't anybody until the safety level to stop you (which is why the safeties play so low). It's times like these I miss 2015 Harbaugh. That fullback counter trap against these guys…whew Just making your reads against the shuffle could turn into big yards on the ground too, because the blitzball linebackers tend to get buried in the line and have to chase those down from behind. What I'd love to see however is some Ben Mason/Ben Van Sumeren stuff. Keep adding gaps, and make them appear in weird places, and suddenly the defense is running out of guys they can insert without first reading to see where the hell they're supposed to be inserting.

And bring back Down G, maybe with frippery. With Okwara flinging upfield, and the linebackers burying themselves into the backside of the line because the backside looks like zone blocking, the linebackers almost take care of themselves. And if you meet a safety, well, Charbonnet and Haskins ain't small dudes. I won't lie: this is a good defense. They know how to fling the pawns at you so you'll have to maneuver against the various stronger pieces. It's going to take beating those guys, getting a TE/WR block on JOK, breaking a tackle from Elliott, giving Alohi Gilman a piggy back ride to the 1st down marker, or catching contested shots over 5'9"/170 gnats who know how to interfere without interfering. It's a cold wet night in a game that doesn't really matter except for "winningest" purposes. We might not get to play it again for a long time. We've had a year and change to figure out what to do about the edges. Run your stuff. Ball out. Michigan can beat these guys.

Comments

Pelini's Cat

October 25th, 2019 at 10:15 AM ^

Seth, SP+ as this as the 35th (!) ranked defense, which seems real bad. It feels like this style of defense should be able to stomp out bad opponents and inflate that efficiency rating like ours does (not saying our D isn’t good but it does get boosts by holding Rutgers to lol total yards). Any theory on the discrepancy between your scouting and based god Bill Connelly’s nerd math? 

Seth

October 25th, 2019 at 10:48 AM ^

  • They faced Louisville when they still had Jawon Pass, who's out for the season, and RB Hassan Hall has missed time too.
  • Georgia's offense has fallen back to near Michigan's level after their awful performance against SoCar makes ND's defensive performance in this game look more impressive.
  • Since most of Bill C's nerd stats aren't being published anymore I can't drill down but I suspect they're giving up a lot in IsoPPP.

Drew Henson's Backup

October 25th, 2019 at 11:39 AM ^

Seth, didn't you listen to the Roundtable? Why did you even bother with this post?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5U1-OmAICpU

 

Mongo

October 25th, 2019 at 11:58 AM ^

Down G with Ben Mason at H-back ... pound the rock on these shit-small LBs and DEs.  Body blow after body blow.  Let's see how long they like coming downhill on Ol' Murderface, Ruiz and Onwenu meeting them in "their gap".

Go Blue !!!

RJWolvie

October 25th, 2019 at 12:06 PM ^

Love these FFFF analyses: thank you Seth. A quibble though:

"...in a game that doesn't really matter except for "winningest" purposes." I would beg to differ: this game, and the rest of the season, especially the next two rivalry games, matter TONS. If Michigan builds on what started to appear last weekend, turns season around, and runs off a string, including these next 3 rivalry wins. That's enormous! If somehow that all comes together and unfolds, the outlook is all optimism. It has to start tomorrow night. If that or anything at all like it doesn't unfold, we're back to mediocre (8-4) or worse (7-5 or...shudder), going into a bowl game no one will play in. This game matters for EVERYTHING, except the Big title of course.

MGoBlue96

October 25th, 2019 at 12:41 PM ^

So a smallish front and rain forecast, seems like mashing should be the gameplan. O-line hasn't really been able to mash all year though against a good defense, tommorrow would be a nice day to start.

BlueHills

October 25th, 2019 at 1:45 PM ^

Great read! 

I guess I need to be reminded how the team can revert to 2015 Harbaugh plays and fullback stuff, when all they’ve practiced since the spring are 2019 Gattis plays? Seems like kind of a disaster recipe due to lack of game experience this year, but then, spread offenses haven’t exactly been championship offenses at Michigan, so maybe it pays to try a few old-style plays out and see how it goes.