Essentials

WHAT	Michigan vs Maryland
WHERE	HoegLaw Field at Maryland Stadium College Park, MD
WHEN	Noon Eastern
THE LINE	Michigan -21
TELEVISION	ABC
TICKETS	exist
WEATHER	sunny, 50-ish negligible wind

Overview

Maryland thought it had something under new coach Mike Locksley when the season opened with a blowout over FCS Howard and a 63-20 stomping of then-ranked Syracuse. That was a platform, but only for a belly flop.

The Terps immediately lost to Temple and then suffered a 59-0 humiliation at home against Penn State; only Rutgers stands between them and a six-game losing streak that also includes blowout Ls against Minnesota and the shattered remnants of Purdue. Meanwhile Syracuse is still looking for its first P5 win of the season.

Maybe hiring the guy who went 2-26 at New Mexico wasn't the best idea.

[Hit THE JUMP for PIGGY… is injured]

Run Offense vs Maryland

Michigan's offense clicked against Notre Dame by putting Irish linebackers on a one-way flight to hell. Except when they ran stretch plays, when the one-way tickets were to the running back. But when they weren't doing that, Irish LBs had their heads spinning and Michigan more than doubled its season total of explosive runs.

Now: keep doing that. The combination of pin and pull, split zone, and arc zone is a framework that is robust in and of itself and now you can hang frippery on it. No, don't ask why it took this long to run the former two. No. Shh. You'll spook it.

This week they meet a run defense that started off solid and has been going the wrong direction. Early return may have been more about opposition than anything, but Maryland did hold four of their first five FBS opponents under 4 yards a carry, with Penn State a notable but not awful exception (41 carries, 198 yards, 4.8 per). The last two weeks have been a collapse: 32 carries, 186 yards, 5.8 YPC against Indiana. Then the big one: 54 carries, 321 yards, 5.9 YPC against Minnesota.

This feels like a team that should be vulnerable to Michigan's pin and pull, because it's the Wisconsin defense again…

…but with mostly castaways from other teams. Also Michigan ended up running one (1) pin and pull against Wisconsin, in part because of the game situation and in part because this was the game where Michigan abandoned the run pretty much the instant Ben Mason fumbled it on the first drive. The OLB there is 220; the "jack" is 250; neither LB is exactly a beef machine. TEs should have an advantage stapling guys inside and paving the way for edge runs.

It should be noted that those edge guys are both highly touted recruits who are refugees from Clemson and OSU, but for every Byron Cowart (a fifth round pick last year after washing out at Auburn and finding himself at Maryland) there are two guys who make it clear why they didn't break through at their first stop.

As Seth said, "they are shrimps."

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN'S OL vs STEAMROLLER TIME. It's steamy steamy steamy time.

Pass Offense vs Maryland

Brooks is the only Maryland defender in half of last year's photos [Eric Upchurch]

Maryland's pass defense is so bad it gave up 6.5 yards an attempt to Rutgers. This Rutgers:

Guys, they did it. Rutgers finished today’s game with one single passing yard. A remarkable achievement. pic.twitter.com/A50MZ9psD8

— Matt Lindner (@mattlindner) October 12, 2019

Need I continue? I needns't.

But I shall. The battered shell of Purdue completed 81% of its attempts for 10 yards an attempt; PSU went for ten yards an attempt; Indiana, Syracuse, and Minnesota went over 8. This will be an opportunity to get things done.

The Terps are down two projected starters in the secondary. S Antwaine Richardson tore his ACL in spring practice; CB Tino Ellis got knocked out for the year against Purdue. A third, CB Marcus Lewis, has been in and out of the lineup and will attempt to go this weekend. Past Lewis it's true freshmen. At least one of Lavonte Gater, who's listed at 168, or Deonte Banks will start, and if Lewis can't go it's possible both will. Neither of these guys was a big-time recruit—Banks was in the 800s on the composite, Gater in the 1500s—and Michigan's WRs should eat them alive if given the opportunity.

Maryland also does not get to the quarterback, though this has been disguised by 15 sacks against Howard, Rutgers, and Syracuse. (If Syracuse doesn't sound like they belong in that bin, well, they do: they're dead last nationally with 42(!) sacks allowed.) Against the rest of the schedule: three sacks in five games.

It'll be sunny, warm-ish, and calm. The pocket will be a great unbroken expanse of land with cattle grazing on it. The defensive backs will be true freshman on stepstools. This is the kind of game where Patterson lights it up.

Antoine Brooks is good, though. Don't throw it at him; you don't need to risk it.

KEY MATCHUP: ANTOINE BROOKS vs THE DESIRE TO WANDER OFF INTO THE SEA. Poor damn Antoine Brooks.

Run Defense vs Maryland

touchdown or nothin' still applies [Upchurch]

Matt Canada is off roaming the wilderness after his interim year as head coach, but Maryland has maintained the spirit of his run game even if it comes in different packaging. Are you Rutgers, Syracuse, or the battered husk of Purdue? Please eat 7+ YPC. Are you Penn State or uh it says Minnesota here? We have a lovely 2.4 YPC appetizer for you today.

Opponent Watch has lovingly detailed the wildly oscillating Maryland offense for a year and change now, and there was no game more Maryland than Rutgers:

Offensively the Terps put up 7.9 yards per play, though that was a combination of massively explosive plays and turtle-on-its-back flailing. On the positive side, they turned in:

• Four one-play TD drives of 80, 80, 42, and 2 yards;
• One 3-play 74 yard TD drive;
• One 13-play, 90 yard TD drive; and
• One 17-play, 72 yard drive that yielded no points

They also tacked on a 100-yard kickoff return. On the other, less dexterous hand, they also did this:

• Six 3-and-outs, totaling zero total yards
• One 5 play, -4 yard drive
• One 7 play, 14 yard drive

The Turtlecoaster has broken containment, and is now vacillating wildly WITHIN the game.

Maryland's offense has been hammered by injuries but has a nigh-infinite supply of scatbacks the Terps have lost Lorenzo Harrison for the season; Anthony McFarland has been limited with a high ankle sprain. So let's just throw Javon Leake out there:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkyiGf3-fkU

That's last year against Illinois; this year Leake has been ripping off giant runs as part of the Maryland platoon and when McFarland sat out against Indiana he got workhorse-level touches, putting up 158 yards on 23 carries. He's averaging 8.2 yards a pop; only PSU was able to corral him.

McFarland did return last week for 10 carries. If he's healthy—an open question—you remember him from the last N Maryland games, although you might get him confused with any number of other Maryland jetpack squirrels. If he's not healthy he'll be like that except bad.

The Maryland OL is a little like the junior varsity version of Michigan's. They've got two good guards. The tackles… uh. Seth:

LT Jaelyn Duncan (+6/-8, –8(!!!) pass pro) was a top-150 prospect because of his hugeness. When he makes contact people move. When he doesn't, it's the norm because his feet are made of lead. The other side is top-250 guy RT Marcus Minor (+0.5/-8, –11.5 pass pro), who shouldn't be on the field, especially at tackle where his exaggerated 6'4"/298 size gets picked on every time he engages somebody. The UFR of this game is a week away but I'm giving you a heads up now that Aiden, Kwity, Uche, and Danna's scores need a Minor disclaimer.

Michigan's dual SDE approach is going to whip these guys—there's nowhere to hide. Combine that with Michigan's sideline to sideline linebacking corps and the general shape of the defenses Maryland has given it to and this looks like it'll be the Penn State game or previous Michigan-Maryland outings where the exciting scatback guys try to get the edge and get buried.

Unless, of course, Michigan does something goofy and Maryland ruthlessly exploits it for the Maryland Touchdown Drive: one 80-yard TD surrounded by four three-and-outs.

KEY MATCHUP: MCGRONE and GLASGOW vs SCAT SCAT SCAT SCAT. Missed tackles are likely to be real bad. Michigan's LB corps has been good about not missing tackles, except for some Glasgow blips against Rutgers.

Pass Defense vs Maryland

Demus is also Chase Claypool

Also like previous Maryland-Michigan games, this will only be entertaining for sadists. Start with the tackles above versus Josh Uche, add in the usual level of Maryland quarterback injury, and remove Maryland's annual inexplicable NFL receiver, and the results here will be gruesome.

I mean: there is a solid chance Michigan gets to Max Bortenschlager. Yes, he's still around. Yes, he's a quarterback. Yes, technically. Michigan can get to him because 1) starter Justin Jackson missed two games with a high ankle sprain and got just one series last week, 2) backup Piggy "Piggy" Pigrome left the Minnesota game with an injured knee and was "on a limited schedule" as of Tuesday, and 3) third-stringer Tyler DeSue is very bad and also small.

Here is a Locksley quote on why Jackson got yanked against Minnesota, and keep in mind that DeSue was 4/13 in relief:

"We put him in there and planned to play him, but I just didn’t have the confidence after he came off the field and missed a throw. My gut instinct was that he probably wasn’t as ready as he needs to be. I didn’t have the confidence that he was prepared."

Maryland is going to go with Jackson, but that doesn't sound like a guy Locksley actually wants to play. And that's understandable. In games not against Howard or Rutgers, Jackson is completing 46% of his passes for 5.5 YPA, and most of those attempts came against Syracuse (the #53 D in SP+) and Temple (#40), not world-beaters. Penn State was hideous—Jackson averaged 3 yards an attempt and threw two picks in 21 attempts. His FFFF charting was horrendous: 57% DSR against Syracuse and 36% against PSU with a bunch of asterisks for very bad plays.

The Maryland WR corps is basically Notre Dame's. They've got 6'3" downfield threat Dontay Demus Jr., who's got 31 catches and is averaging almost 16 yards a catch. Four of the next five guys are tight ends and running backs. The #2 WR, Darryl Jones, has one catch since the Temple game in week three. Get ready for some more fades to a tall fast-ish guy that will either be spectacularly caught or not.

Also: screens. All the screens.

KEY MATCHUP: DEMUS vs WHOEVER'S ON FADE DUTY. Hopefully Gray can improve this week.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Slot DJ Turner had a touchdown against Howard aand a 55-yard return against Temple but is now redshirting for the rest of the season after a DUI. The other guys who have tried their hand at it have –1 yard on four attempts. Leake is the kick returner; he has TDs against Illinois and Rutgers over the past couple years.

Joseph Petrino returns at kicker. After making 12 of 14 last year he's 1 of 3 on the season. That is a very Maryland offense stat, BTW: three FGAs in eight games. Maryland has rotated between two freshman punters who seem about the same.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS

INTANGIBLES

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXuq8HwzQ8A

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• There is a small Maryland person running in the open field.
• Fumble catastrophe resumes.
• Gattis gets so mad about Locksley that he runs an all flea-flicker offense.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• Maryland uses more QBs than RBs.
• The new/old run game keeps putting linebackers in the spin cycle.
• It's one of those Patterson days.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 3 (Baseline: 5; –1 for Bortenschlager Is On The Table, –1 for Transitive PSU Score, –1 for All Previous Michigan-Maryland Games, +1 for Piggy Beat Texas, –1 for But Piggy's Probably Not Playing, +1 for I Just Wanted To Mention Piggy Beat Texas)

Desperate need to win level: 8 (Baseline: 5; +1 for The Great Feud, +1 for They Shouldn't Even Be In This League, +1 for Don't Harsh My ND Vibes Please, –1 for Conference Goals Are Gone, +1 for A Narrative Of Progress Would Be Nice)

Loss will cause me to… find the I Like Turtles kid and tell him to go to hell.

Win will cause me to… continue searching Big Ten contracts for an exit clause.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

This is the kind of day and the kind of team that Patterson has a field day with. Couple that with a re-focused run game that's hit its stride and Michigan should move the ball all day, with self-derp the biggest obstacle between M and the endzone.

On the other side of the ball, Maryland is a threat to break off some huge plays. They're not a threat to sustain more than a couple drives, and things could get ugly in a hurry if Jackson can't go at QB.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Michigan runs a ton of stack in an effort to confirm or disconfirm how viable it is as a run D.
• Shea Patterson has 10 YPA.
• Michigan 40, Maryland 11