Previously: Podcast 14.0A, 14.0B, 14.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Offensive Tackle. Interior OL. Defensive Interior. Edge. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams.

1. We demand a quarterback prognostication.

Well, here's Harbaugh breaking it down:

The way I've been evaluating them is them being able to be a passer. By passer: arm talent, who can make all the throws. Both of them have the arm talent to make all the throws and it comes down to accuracy, timing, decision making, taking what the defense gives you as a passer. Cade is a little bit ahead there at this point.

Then the next category is playmaker. The guy that can turn water into wine, using his athleticism, his speed, arm talent. Runner, scrambler, plays smart, makes a play when there's no play to be made. Running ability, moves the chains as a runner. Augments the running game. Risk/reward, turn a one-yard loss into a positive play, but doesn't make the bad play worse, avoids the fumbles, the interceptions, the sacks. I have JJ ahead in that category.

And then field general — coach on the field, facilitator to the other playmakers and the offensive line. You trust them to handle the ball and every play. Is a ball protector, fix the calls, the formation, the protections, gets the checks right. Leads the unit drive-by-drive and points per possession really is what you're looking for. They're both pretty even there in that category. Maybe Cade the slight advantage there.

You can read this any way you want: McNamara wins 2/3 categories: McNamara. McCarthy is clearly ahead in playmaking while McNamara is only a "little bit ahead" or has a "slight advantage" in the other two. Meanwhile chatter from inside the program has been a muddle, with one guy ahead one day and the other ahead the next day. Alex's summary from early in camp:

What we're hearing: Right now Cade McNamara and JJ McCarthy are locked in an extremely tight duel, according to just about anyone who has offered insight. We've heard all kinds of phrases to describe it, "50-50", "a battle", "reps split down the middle". That appears to be the most factual description, while different insiders have consulted their own sources to try and interpret what it means, with Balas' source trotting out the ole "Cade will start the year, but JJ will pull through mid-season" theory ($). Those who have gone through the hassle of trying to describe individual practices are mostly rehashing what we know, that Cade has limitations with his arm and (occasionally) accuracy, while JJ makes the back-breaking naive error trying to do too much in between stretches of brilliance.

And from later in camp:

Let's start with McNamara. In his corner, we have an insider on the record flat out saying that Cade is the starter ($). Every update on the QB battle, no matter who the author is, has the same points about McNamara: 1.) he has made real improvements to his game, 2.) he protects the ball and has a good feel for the offense, and 3.) he "leads scoring drives" ($). Dependability and consistency also get brought up in reference to Cade.

As for JJ McCarthy, we hear a lot about the boom or bust moments. We hear that he's improved from last season and is on track to be an All-American during his Michigan career ($) but that right now he still has too many moments where he tries to do too much ($). Where Cade is talked about in reference to his consistency, JJ is described with the term "upside". This is all more of the same, but what is new in JJ's corner is a take from Sam Webb, claiming that McCarthy had an excellent scrimmage over the weekend, one that has left the QB room far from settled ($). Sam describes how McCarthy started fall camp with rust from his injured spring and has needed time to catch up.

In all my many years of trying to decipher camp chatter I don't think I've ever come across a situation like this where things are genuinely up in the air. I believe that the two quarterbacks are neck-and-neck to the point where nobody from Jim Harbaugh on down knows who the starting quarterback is going to be.

Our inside baseball says this is because both guys are doing well—really well. The main dynamic is that McCarthy continually threatens to push past McNamara by doing absurd things and then throws an interception. McNamara has "come very far" and the ball rarely hits the turf when either guy is throwing. So… I mean… I don't know. I genuinely do not have an assertion to make here. I put a gun to my own head for the Stupid Predictions below and ended up changing my prediction from one guy to the other, complete with explanations, four times.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

2. Does losing Gattis matter?

Matt Weiss: eh, fine [Patrick Barron]

TL;DR: no. Not when J.Uche is on the case.

Collaboration and evolution will be two keys to our continued offensive success pic.twitter.com/PjsQmIbJgW

— Michigan Football (@UMichFootball) August 10, 2022

Josh Gattis won the Broyles award last year and then immediately flitted off to Miami, leaving Matt Weiss as Michigan's nominal offensive coordinator. I say "nominal" because in the past it's been Harbaugh running the show with a bunch of people chipping in, and one dollar says that's what Michigan does in 2022.

Losing coordinators is generally bad for recruiting and continuity purposes. It could also be bad if Gattis really is a Joe Moorhead sort. I believe that there's been a recruiting hit. The rest of it… ehhhhhhh. Gattis bailing on Michigan for a Miami program that's finished the season ranked all of four times since 2005 says something about something. That's not a lateral move, and if Michigan really wanted to keep him they have all the money. They didn't care to.

Your author saw far too many flat-out dumbass gameplans from Gattis to believe he was really all that, most infamously the 2019 Army game:

Michigan ignored the other half of the arc package. The third and three before the second disastrous fourth down is a scrape exchange, which split zone is great on because the crashing DE gets kicked and the LB runs himself out of the play. Bredeson puts a DT on his ass, but Eubanks runs past the DE on the arc:

Split zone wins here; split zone is great against exchanges; split zone is literally the play you are faking when you run arc. Split zone was a success all three times it was run in this game. Where the hell were the other 10 instances of it?

I do not believe Jim Harbaugh would ever have done that himself. Jim Harbaugh knows and has run every single running play in the history of college football. He would not have run an arc package without running the base play the arc package is built off of. Things got better from there, but it was always my contention that Harbaugh exerted high level influence over what was an option and then ceded actual playcalling to Gattis, giving him a platform to work from that was not the above. And… how much better did they get?

There were many strenuous disagreements on WTKA over the past few years about just how involved Harbaugh and other folks were with the gameplans and how much was Gattis running the show himself. I can't tell you with any certainty what the playcalling situation was, but last year Michigan was an exceptionally diverse rush-forward offense that basically never ran any "Speed in Space" stuff. Even if that was all Gattis—something his petulant departure from the program implies was not the case—I'm pretty sure Jim Freakin' Harbaugh can pick up where Gattis left off.

Meanwhile, that departure. For the bulk of his tenure Gattis came off like a… let's just say he was messy. Let's revisit that departure text:

I sacrificed so much personally to stand in the fight with each of you which i would never take back. Unfortunately the past few weeks has told a different story to me about the very little appreciation i have here from administration. In life i would never advise anyone to be where they are not wanted and i owe that to my family and my integrity to hold myself to this standard!

1) You didn't sacrifice anything, you got paid high six figures to coach football, 2) you just won the Broyles award despite having an offense that ranked 10th in SP+, 3) if you thought the University of Michigan was going to say "hey, offensive coordinator with no head coaching experience you can have this head coaching job if Harbaugh leaves," you are nuts. Then there's the Locksley stuff, the continual drama about who was in charge of what, and rumors about off-field malfeasance that were quite persistent. Locker-room harmony will be improved now that he's gone.

Meanwhile, Matt Weiss was literally the Madden Kid for the Ravens:

One thing Harbaugh has taken a close look at is how he can best give the Ravens an edge with his in-game decision-making. For years, he’s had a staffer in the booth communicating win probabilities to him during games. First, it was Matt Weiss, who has since become the running backs coach. This season, it’s football analyst (that’s his official title) Daniel Stern, a 25-year-old behavioral economics major who grew up in Baltimore, got his degree from Yale and is in his fourth season with the Ravens.

John Harbaugh's Lend-Lease Act continues unabated. I'm on board. Mike McDonald exceeded all reasonable expectations in his solitary year here, and if John Harbaugh thought Matt Weiss should be the Madden Kid and then promoted him after being good at Madden Kidding this seems like a very strong endorsement. NFL coaches who hang around for extended periods of time are relentlessly disciplined and analytical and their hiring decisions are almost always excellent.

If this reverts to Harbaugh with a guy whispering in his ear about EPA, I'm delighted by that. You can't go 100% stat nerd, you need footbaw men with footbaw knowledge, but sprinkling in some stat nerd makes the tomato that is a metaphor for constructing an offense… I mean… you know… I think it's good.

3. What about short yardage?

I remember complaining about short yardage over and over again last year…

Short yardage is a problem. Rinse, repeat. Haskins got lit up by penetration on yet another short yardage zone play on which Michigan was suddenly asking a guy to block someone lined up inside of him and slanting away. My kingdom for a fullback named "Thonk Johnson" who's 5'9", 260.

…but the overall numbers aren't actually bad. Football Outsider's advanced OL stats have Michigan 29th in power success rate at 75%. Not ideal but neither a disaster. But the elephant is no longer in the room, as it were.

We've dedicated a lot of virtual ink to fretting about who the short yardage back is going to be, and since it seems like Kalel Mullings is going to start at linebacker against Colorado State the site's fave-rave is maybe not an option. But it is at least distantly possible that we've been so focused on this because it's something to fret about. We're Michigan fans, after all. This morning on WTKA Craig was fretting that Michigan had two good quarterbacks instead of one. It's what we do, and it is exceptionally hard to poke holes in this offense.

But let's say whoever the short yardage back is pretty meh at the job. It's Corum and he doesn't move piles, or it's Dunlap and he's just a guy. Even in that scenario Michigan probably treads water. No offense to Andrew Vastardis, but Oluwatimi should be an upgrade:

Michigan's Andrew Vastardis was the starting center for the nation's top OL this season. He had a 80.3 run blocking grade and a 68.6 pass blocking grade via @PFF.

He'll be replaced next season by UVA transfer Olu Oluwatimi, who had a 90.2 run blocking/73.4 pass blocking grade.

— Scott Bell (@sbell021) December 27, 2021

Meanwhile the interior OL is a year more experienced and Zak Zinter won't have a club on his hand. Zinter in particular is going from a second- to a third-year player. Increased facecrushing from the interior OL should go some distance towards mitigating the loss of Haskins. Michigan should also get incrementally better blocking from the TEs and Ryan Hayes; only the switch from Stueber to Trente Jones is a potential downgrade.

This space still pines for a real fullback—third and short with BEN MASON was automatic. Even without one this should be at least okay, and there have been some rumbles that an Alex Orji wildcat package is being explored. He's 235? He's a quarterback? He gives you an extra blocker? I am listening.

4. Do you have any flatly unreasonable demands?

ONE FLEA FLICKER EVERY GAME

ONE DOUBLE PASS EVERY GAME

I'm not sure I'm joking about this.

5. Well?

How does one slow their roll here? I am looking for holes. I cannot find them. There are two QBs to be optimistic about, an elite RB, a WR corps that goes five deep with guys who should perform, an OL that lost two guys from a really good line and replaced one of them with a Rimington finalist, and two established very good tight ends.

In these situations it's better to look at how it could all go wrong. Three possibilities:

• QUARTERBACK SNAKEYES. Michigan has an enviable QB situation but it does not have CJ Stroud: an established elite guy who the NFL will be picking in the first round. McNamara was up and down; McCarthy was a true freshman. It is possible both disappoint.
• OL INJURIES. Seth did not grade Karsen Barnhart well last year and it's possible Michigan's offense is blunted by OL issues that crop up when an interior guy goes out. Oluwatimi is likely the most irreplaceable.
• I'M ENTIRELY WRONG ABOUT GATTIS. He was a genius, Michigan misses him badly, and none of this comes together.

Ah, hell. That didn't blunt anything at all. My best devil's advocate came up with going 0/2 on young QB development, two OL injuries, and Gattis being a real thing.

I do think Michigan's offense is a little variable here because you need one of the two QBs to make a big leap forward. That does not always happen. Other than that… this old cynic doesn't have anything. LFG.

BETTER

• QBs one year older >> QBs one year younger
• Ronnie Bell >> no Ronnie Bell
• Cornelius Johnson, Roman Wilson, Andrel Anthony > Younger versions
• Olu Oluwatimi > Andrew Vastardis
• Ryan Hayes > younger Ryan Hayes
• Trevor Keegan, Zak Zinter >> younger, injured versions of self
• Karsen Barnhart > younger Barnhart

PUSH

• Corum + Edwards == Corum + Haskins
• Erick All, Luke Schoonmaker == Erick All, Luke Schoonmaker
• AJ Henning == AJ Henning
• Trente Jones == Andrew Stueber
• Not Gattis == Gattis

WORSE

• Third back < Donovan Edwards
• Whatever << Haskins short yardage
• #7 OL < Chuck Filiaga

LAST YEAR'S STUPID PREDICTIONS

These are Seth's, FWIW.

McNamara is an opponent-variant (kills bad teams, struggles vs good secondaries) QB who matches Patterson’s 8.0 YPC but with a completion % much closer to 70 than 50. He starts every game that he isn’t injured.

Completely correct (7.9 YPA, 64% completion rate). One point.

We still see J.J. McCarthy in a competitive situation. He makes at least one throw that’s bonkers and at least two things that are only excusable for a freshman.

Okay this was a gimme but one point.

Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins get about equal carries, suppressing each others’ bids for all-conference, and we think that is unfair.

Injury interfered with this, and Haskins was first team all conference. Half-point.

Corum sees an uptick in his target rate, but it’s still not enough because Michigan doesn’t throw a lot of RB screens.

Corum was not a real part of the passing offense and this was fine. Zero.

Ronnie Bell remains the clear leader in targets and finishes the year just under 1,000 yards. Cornelius Johnson has more targets, yards, and TDs than Daylen Baldwin, but Baldwin leads the team in yards per target.

Bell got hurt, incomplete. Johnson did lead the team in targets and yards without him; Roman Wilson led in yards per target. Half point.

The running game is right-handed. Their favorite plays are Pin & Pull and split zone behind Stueber/Zinter.

Pin and pull was not a heavily featured play; split zone was, but the ground game wasn't heavily right-handed. Maybe a little. Half point.

The offensive line does some 2019-style face-mashing but has too many 2016-style interior protection breakdowns that prevent it from being more than B+ unit. PFF grades Stueber higher than Zinter; MGoBlog is the reverse. Vastardis grades out the lowest to both.

This was excessively pessimistic about the pass protection and Vastardis, but correct about the face-mashing. Half point.

Erick All is a secret weapon as a blocker and his drops go away, but he’s not the contested catch maven we hoped he would be.

One point.

Josh Gattis isn’t back next year. Mike Hart is.

One point.

THIS YEAR'S STUPID PREDICTIONS

• I do not want to make a QB prediction.
• Leave me alone.
• Fine: McNamara keeps his nose in front because he's less prone to mistakes and he improves his ability to see and hit shots downfield; with the talent around him he does not need to be the all-singing, all-dancing beating heart of the offense.
• No wide receiver is the clear #1. Johnson, Bell, and Anthony all are in a dead heat for catches and yards, with Wilson, All, and Edwards in a secondary group some distance behind.
• Two Michigan skill players are picked on Days 1-2 of the NFL draft.
• Zak Zinter blows up into a PFF fave-rave and is on NFL lips going into 2023 if Michigan's able to hang onto him.
• Trente Jones at least replicates Andrew Stueber's 2021 grading; he's better in pass pro and worse as a run blocker.
• The offense balances out almost 50/50 between runs and passes.
• Michigan's season RPS grade is better in 2022 than it was in 2021.
• Michigan finishes 4th in SP+ offense.