About Last Week

Poor damn Connor Bazelak.

The Road Ahead

Penn State (5-0, 2-0 B1G)

Last week: Bye

Recap: No recap. Bye.

So now, we just wander into this game with no real sense of who Penn State is. On the bright side, Penn State blogs are almost certainly saying the same exact thing about Michigan right now.

This team is as frightening as: A wet paint sign. Maybe the sign means “this bench is covered in wet paint.” But it could also mean, “this bench was covered in wet paint twelve hours ago.” Of course, the solution is obvious: just don’t touch the bench, right? But you HAVE to touch the bench. You need to know whether the sign is lying to you.

Yep. We’re gonna touch the bench. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: Nick Singleton has 5 carries of 40+ yards this season. No one else in the country has more than 3.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan has had great success against Penn State in Ann Arbor in recent years. Hell, James Franklin lost to Brady Hoke in Ann Arbor. And not just any Brady Hoke team. Brady Hoke’s worst team. And not just any game. He lost a chess match to Brady Hoke.

That is as clear of a Jones the Fencemaker statement as you’ll see in college football.

When they play Michigan: The season has two possible paths. One leads to Football Armageddon III. The other leads to “pretty good, I guess.” Penn State is the fork in the road.

This week: @ Michigan, Big Noon Kickoff, FOX (PSU +7)

[AFTER THE JUMP: Some games. Then The Game.]

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Michigan State (2-4, 0-3 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Ohio State, 49-20

It’s just a little 0-4 against Power 5 teams. It’s still good… It’s still good…

Recap: Typically, being the preseason #15 team in the country and losing at home by 29 points to drop to 2-4 would be seen as “bad news.” However, to the Graham Couches of the world, the final score of this qualified as moral victory. Apparently Michigan State “escaped with its dignity,” they “actually played some good football at times” while the “defense had its moments, including a pick-six.”

Out of morbid curiosity (with an admitted dash of schadenfreude), I’ve looked around MSU Internets, and Graham is out on this limb alone. No one who watched this game, or who looked at the box score of this game, or whose best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl who saw the ESPN highlight package of this game, saw this as anything other than it was: an unmitigated, comprehensive, and relentless hamblasting.

Ohio State tripled up Michigan State 614 to 202 in total yardage. And even that includes some favorable garbage time production, as Ohio State mercifully called off the dogs late in the third quarter, putting in their backups and going to a rudimentary run-run-pass (or run-run-run) offense.

While Ohio State was still trying to score, they outgained MSU 564 to 110. They outgained MSU on a per-play basis 9.7 to 3.0. They scored 7 touchdowns on 8 drives, with MSU having VERY little to do with that one non-scoring drive. They punted zero times. They faced 7 total third downs. CJ Stroud was 21 of 26 for 361 yards (13.9 YPA) and 6 touchdowns. During that same period, in 9 drives, Michigan State picked up 9 total first downs (3 by penalty) and rushed for -8 yards, and their only touchdown drive was powered by such brilliant offensive schemes as “tackled for a loss to bring up 3rd and 17, but with a horsecollar” and “thundersacked to bring up 4th and 15, but with a personal foul penalty.”

No one has ever really taken Graham Couch seriously. I genuinely wonder sometimes whether Graham Couch takes Graham Couch seriously. Couch has always struck me as a guy who desperately wants to get in on the #HotTakes game, but he never really learned the rules or the scoring system. A guy reaching for the low-hanging fruit but who is unable to identify which part of the tree is the fruit part and which is, like, twigs or pine cones or squirrels. It’s as if you ran Skip Bayless through Google Hot Take Translate a few times, so while you can recognize some of the elements of a Hot Take, the overwhelming takeaway is one of bewilderment. But in the event you still, for some reason, felt some sentimental attachment to “guy who has never been right, but whose name I have seen for many years,” please consider yourselves released from any further obligation.

This team is as frightening as: A wounded geriatric badger. It’s still dangerous, but it’s done being all loud and aggressive and trying to claim territory. At this point, it’s just trying to stay quiet and hidden in the hopes that everyone will leave them alone. They’re just hoping this season will be allowed to crawl off and die of its own accord, rather than being publicly mauled to death. Fear Level = 6.5 is as low as I feel comfortable going, given *waves arms towards last dozen-ish years*

Michigan should worry about: Jayden Reed is still banged up, but he’s back in the lineup and is the best thing MSU has going for them offensively by a couple of orders of magnitude. Payton Thorne completed 4 passes on 6 targets to Reed for 67 yards (11.2 YPT), including a couple of Bazelakian gems. His other 12 passes went for 46 yards (3.8 YPA). When you include sack yardage, Thorne’s 16 non-Reed-target dropbacks netted 15 yards.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Updating some numbers from last week, in MSU’s four Power 5 games this year:

• They are allowing 528 yards per game at >7.0 yards per play
• They’re allowing >10.0 yards per pass and a passer rating of 192.7
• They’re rushing for 2.2 yards per carry for a total of just under 47 yards per game
• Of the 240 minutes of game time, they have trailed for 214:31. They have trailed by multiple scores for 158:21.

When they play Michigan: Both teams will hate this. It is rather unlikely that Michigan State will win OR that Michigan will squish Michigan State the way the numbers and our inner Adam Driver GIF say they should. It’ll be a long, cold, unsatisfying 11 point Michigan win, and Michigan will lose at least one player to a 4th quarter shiving.

This week: vs. Wisconsin, 4:00 p.m., FOX (MSU +7)
 

Rutgers (3-3, 0-3 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Nebraska, 14-13

Recap: Rutgers had this one. They scored a quick touchdown to take a 7-0 lead, and then blocked a punt to start first and goal at the Nebraska 7. They were held to a field goal, but they still managed to hold a 13-0 lead at halftime and looked like the better team. But, this being Rutgers, things are never quite that simple, and Rutgers farted around long enough for Nebraska to grab a 14-13 lead in the 4th quarter.

Still, Rutgers forced a stop with just over 4 minutes left, with a chance to get the ball back for a game-winning drive, but they got dinged for a very, very questionable late hit penalty. But, this being Nebraska, things are never quite that simple, and Rutgers eventually got the ball back with just over a minute left. But, this being Rutgers… yeah you get the picture.

The good news for Rutgers was that Noah Vedral returned from what was apparently a throwing hand injury and played about half of Rutgers’ snaps. And while he only completed 6 of 15 passes, he did manage to gain 133 yards on those 6 completions. Evan Simon was also 6 of 15, but for only 100 yards and three brutal interceptions.

This team is as frightening as: The 17th hole at TPC Sawgrass.

It’s not an especially hard hole. In fact, it’s one of the shortest holes you’ll see on the PGA Tour; it’s only 137 yards for the pros and 128 yards for the best non-pros. That’s a pitching wedge into a relatively large green. But everyone is going to watch you hit that shot, and no one watching is hoping you hit the middle of the green. No pressure. Don’t mess up. Fear Level = 3.5

 

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Rutgers is averaging 11 points per conference game. Eleven. One one. That’s the worst in the conference… and THINK ABOUT WHAT ELSE IS IN THIS CONFERENCE. In their last 4 games combined (totaling 49 drives) they have scored 3 offensive touchdowns and 42 total points.

Michigan should worry about: Rutgers fired offensive coordinator Sean Gleason after the game, and named Nunzio Campanile as the interim OC. And sure, Campanile’s previous stint as interim OC (and interim Head Coach) at Rutgers in 2019 generated an 0-7 record in conference play to the tune of 3.8 yards per play and 7.3 points per game… but everyone knows your second stint as interim OC is when you really get your feet under you. And with a suddenly not-fully-injured Noah Vedral at his disposal, things are sure to start cooking for Rutgers soon.

When they play Michigan: Meet the new Rutgers. Same as the old Rutgers.

This week: Bye
 

Nebraska (3-3, 2-1 B1G)

Last week: Won at Rutgers, 14-13

Recap: Nebraska was bested in total yards and yards per play and yards per passing play and yards per running play and % of available yards gained and success rate and explosive plays.

By Rutgers.

That’s not great.

This team is as frightening as: Fancy Bizarro Iowa. The primary difference is that Nebraska was willing to fire their obviously failing fail-son.  Fear Level = 3.5

Michigan should worry about: Interim Head Coach Mickey Joseph has now won consecutive Big Ten games the same number of times as Scott Frost did in 4 full conference seasons. And even more amazingly, Nebraska won a one-score game ⁠— a one POINT game, no less ⁠— for the first time since [404 memory not found]. They still aren’t GOOD. But they’re at least differently bad.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: …by Rutgers.

When they play Michigan: Three weeks ago, we posed an epidemiological question based primarily on Northwestern losing two straight games and Georgia Southern’s loss to UAB. Many refused to heed the warning. And now look where we are.

Northwestern, Georgia Southern, Oklahoma, and Indiana are now a combined 1-12 after their exposure to Nebraska. Oklahoma has underperformed the Vegas spread by a combined 98 points in their three games. 98! Four-and-a-half touchdowns per game! Northwestern ⁠— losers of FIVE in a row, including games against a MAC team and an FCS team ⁠— has underperformed the spread by a combined 58.5 points in their five post-Nebraska games, with their only cover coming in a literal actual hurricane against Penn State.

Statistically speaking, we are quickly running out of other plausible explanations.

This week: @ Purdue, 7:30 p.m., BTN (Nebraska +14)
 

Illinois (5-1, 2-1 B1G)

Last week: Beat Iowa, 9-6

Recap: We learned three things on Saturday:

1. Brian Ferentz is the reason the International Criminal Court exists.
2. Illinois is absolutely a contender for the Big Ten West title.
3. Illinois will not win the Big Ten West if Tommy DeVito gets hurt.

As usual, Chase Brown did the heavy lifting, but the lifting was even heavier this week as DeVito left the game with a first quarter ankle injury. His replacement, Art Sitkowski ⁠— yes, the Art Sitkowski who threw for 4.2 yards per pass for Rutgers in 2018 ⁠— threw for 4.1 yards per pass. At one point, he had thrown 15 passes for 16 yards.

Suddenly relevant again. Somehow. [Barron, from like 20 years ago]

Illinois has a 2-1 record, they get Minnesota and Purdue at home, and their crossover game against Michigan State looks… uh… slightly more tractable than it did a month ago.

This team is as frightening as: Walking into an hour-long meeting with your boss’s boss and immediately realizing, “uh oh, I have a moderate urge to pass gas.” You SHOULD be fine. It’s not an emergency situation. But given the stakes, you know you’re in for 60 minutes of clenching. Fear Level = 6.5

Michigan should worry about: what the hell is that little number next to Illinois’ name?

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Wisconsin is the only team Illinois has faced that is ranked higher than #94 in the country in yards per play, and the only team in the top 100 in yards per pass attempt or passer rating. And they got Wisconsin squarely at the bottom a program death spiral that saw them firing their head coach for the first time in a generation. There is a good chance that, at least defensively, they still ain’t played nobody.

When they play Michigan: Oh please give us one more shot at Art Sitkowski. We’ve been such good boys and girls this year. We deserve this.

This week: vs. Minnesota, noon, BTN (Illinois +6.5?)
 

Ohio State (6-0, 3-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Michigan State, 49-20

the original thicc king

Recap: This was like watching Godzilla absolutely wreck your asshole neighbor’s house. Yes, you are aware of the implications for your near future. It would, all things considered, probably be better for you if the whole Godzilla threat had been overblown. But Doug had that shit coming. I guess you won’t have to worry about whether I mowed exactly on property line now that your side of the property line has been STOMPED INTO THE CORE OF THE EARTH, eh Doug? Go ahead and complain on NextDoor again about people who need to paint their shutters. WHERE ARE YOUR SHUTTERS NOW, DOUG?

As discussed at length in the MSU section, this was never a game. Over the last two MSU games totaling about 5 quarters of play, CJ Stroud has been 53 of 61 for 793 yards (13.0 YPA) and 12 touchdowns. SP+ had it more like a 29 point game. @statsowar had it as literally the most lopsided game in college football this week. They could have played this game a hundred more times, and

One thing to note, though, is that Ohio State has started to accumulate some significant injuries. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Miyan Williams missed this game with injury, and TreVeyon Henderson limped off the field and didn’t return. Just something to keep an eye on.

This team is as frightening as: Defusing a bomb with your boss, your parents, your favorite elementary school teacher, Tom Hanks, and your high school crush watching. There is no ‘middle case’ here. Things will either be SUPER AWESOME or SUPER NOT AWESOME. Fear Level = 10

Michigan should worry about: did you see that thing they did to Doug

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Maybe Godzilla just specifically hated Doug, and will now return to the ocean from whence he came? After all, it’s not like you’ve spent the last 10 months actively antagonizing Godzilla. Godzilla has no beef with us. Just Doug.

When they play Michigan: I mean, we’ll probably have a good sense in the next 53 hours whether this will be Football Armageddon III. Do… do we want that?

This week: Nobody. Wimps.
 

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Colorado State (1-4, 1-0 MWC)

Last week: Won at Nevada, 17-14

Recap: COLORADO STATE WINS!

Now, friend, you may be tempted to ask me, “how did Colorado State win?” or “did Colorado State look good while doing so?” or “does this mean Colorado State is improving?” or “did Colorado State score two defensive touchdowns and get outgained by 170 yards and throw for 3.3 yards per play and miss a game-winning field goal only to get a do-over because of a running-into-the-kicker penalty?” To which I would say, sir/ma’am, it is not your job to ask *how* I acquired these tickets, and whether such acquisition was within the posted rules of this particular Chuck E. Cheese. That’s between me and Charles Entertainment Cheese, and you asking me is a violation of my HIPPA rights. Your job is to turn these tickets into prizes, and I would like that plush rhinoceros and seven Laffy Taffys please.

This week: vs. Utah State, 7:00 p.m., CBSSN (CSU +11.5)
 

Hawaii (1-5, 0-1 MWC)

Last week: Lost at San Diego State, 16-14

Recap: We were oh so close to a 3-0 weekend for Michigan’s much-maligned non-conference schedule, as Hawai’i took a 14-13 lead with 1:19 to play, but they could not hold off a last-minute drive by the Aztecs. Still, we’ll take any sign of progress in Honolulu, no matter how fleeting, and the Rainbow Warriors put up a season-high 5.9 yards per play while allowing a season low (excluding FCS Duquesne) 5.9 yards per play. And after allowing 63, 49, 56, and 45 points in their first four FBS games, holding a conference opponent ⁠— even one as offensively incompetent as Brady Hoke’s crew ⁠— to 16 points is cause for celebration.

Now they get Nevada, who just lost to Colorado State.

This week: vs. Nevada, midnight (Hawai’i +5.5)
 

UConn (3-4)

Last week: Won at Florida International, 33-12

Pup is living his best life

Recap: On the one hand, UConn was slightly outgained in both total yards and yards per play, and the score was largely the result of three FIU turnovers that weren’t “forced” so much as “requested” or “politely suggested.” But on the other hand, they did rush for 295 yards at 6.4 yards per carry, so this wasn’t all FIU being more terribler than UConn.

Can UConn make a bowl game? I mean… maybe? They will probably be favorites in remaining games against UMass and Army, which means they would have to grab one from Ball State, Boston College, or Liberty. I wouldn’t put money on it, but primarily because putting money on UConn football is a sign of problem gambling.

This week: @ Ball State, 2:00 p.m., ESPN3 (UConn +9.5)
 

Maryland (4-3, 1-2 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Purdue, 31-29

Recap: I am well aware that this week is a very tough week to defend Big Ten refs. They had some struggly struggles in Michigan/Indiana, in Nebraska/Rutgers, in Illinois/Iowa… and, indeed, in this game. Yes, these are not full-time officials, but they need to be better at this particular hobby.

However, I kinda think they are taking a bad rap for a call that they might have gotten right?

Maryland scored a touchdown to go up 23-17 midway through the fourth quarter, but the extra point was blocked. And if you watch at full speed, it looks for all the world like the Boilermaker who blocked the kick was wildly offside. But I Zapruder’d this, and while he’s moving forward at the snap, I don’t know that he’d crossed the line. The ball is already moving in this frame:

Is this dude offside? I dunno. It’s close. But I don’t think so, and in any case, that’s certainly not a slam dunk.

Maryland also scored a late touchdown to pull within 2 points, and converted the two-point conversion, but that was called back on an illegal man downfield. There was discussion about whether you can call that penalty in that situation ⁠— it’s in the category of “you can call that twenty times per game,” after all ⁠— but this is what they saw when they threw the flag:

That’s Maryland’s RT 6 yards downfield, but more than that, he’s blocking back into a rollout flood concept. He catches a linebacker who is trying to carry a tight end down the line. You HAVE to call that. You can’t be mad just because they’ve gotten away with it all year.

Outside of the late game controversy, Maryland played reasonably well, though once again they committed too many penalties (9 for 76 yards). This was the 5th time in 6 games that Maryland committed at least 8 penalties, with the one exception being the Michigan game, where they committed an I-will-field-no-additional-questions-on-this-topic total of 1 penalty.

This week: @ Indiana, 3:30 p.m., ESPN2 (Maryland -11)
 

Iowa (3-3, 1-2 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Illinois, 9-6

Recap: I normally don’t feel bad for Iowa fans, because they very willingly wandered down into this particular basement searching for this particular cask of amontillado. They have willingly, forcefully, and even gleefully supported the notion of the modern (for a specific definition of that word) version of Iowa football for literally decades. They’ve been accomplices in Kirk Ferentz’s “no one else makes hot dogs entirely out of snout, so there is profit to be made here” attempts to take advantage of market inefficiencies. They were cool with the idea that, rather than being about who could score more points than their opponent, football could be about who could not not score fewer points; that offense, rather than a co-equal branch, was simply there to put the defense in position to succeed and to mop up some points here and there when necessary. And for two decades, Iowa has made the rest of the Big Ten endure some of the least enjoyable games known to sporting man as a result, and Iowa fans have probably enjoyed (again, for a VERY specific definition of that word) more success than they might otherwise have enjoyed.

But right now I feel bad for Iowa fans.

The assumption baked into Ferentz’s program of mutual pain has always been, “this isn’t necessarily what you want to watch, but in the end, I have the best interests of this program at heart.” But you can’t look at this shit with a straight face and say that there aren’t hundreds of people more qualified to be doing what Brian Ferentz is supposed to be doing right now.

Saturday was the perfect example. This was the quintessential Iowa game. They held Illinois to 9 points on 11 drives. They forced 3 turnovers. And at one point they recovered a muffed punt at the Illinoi 35, had to punt from the Illinois 41, and recovered a fumble at the Illinois 5… and they still lost a game in which they gave up 9 points because the offense couldn’t convert the FIVE YARDS between where Iowa’s defense left them and the goal line.

Iowa Football is designed to drag teams into ⁠— to borrow a phrase from someone who is clearly not using it at the moment — the deep end. To make them play a style they’re better at than you are, because it’s how they’re built to operate. But Michigan was better at it than Iowa. So was Iowa State. And Illinois. Hell, South Dakota State was their equal. Because Kirk has chosen his kid over his job. And there’s nothing Iowa fans can do about it.

In short:

This week: Bye