About Last Week

I said, “where’d he go?” And Hollywood says, “where’d whoooo gooooooo.” [Fuller]

The Road Ahead

Maryland (3-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat SMU, 34-27

Recap: We said we would discuss Maryland when they beat a real team. And SMU is a real team. Not a great team. Probably not a good team. But a real team. So here we go:

I still have no idea what to make of Maryland.

They outplayed SMU statistically to the point where SP+ had this game more like a 3-touchdown blowout than a 7-point nailbiter. They allowed 369 passing yards, but on 54 attempts (6.8 YPA) and picked off Tanner Mordecai twice. More importantly, they held SMU to a very respectable 4.2 yards per carry (sack-adjusted) with a long rush of 13 yards, and held them to a total of 5.4 yards per play overall. They DID allow a 52 yard touchdown to a guy named R.J. Maryland, which, buddy how did you not see THAT coming, but still. A respectable outing.

Offensively, Roman Hemby has taken over the lead in the backfield; he’s averaging nearly 10 yards per touch on 32 carries and 7 receptions. The passing game looks about as expected, but they still haven’t played a decent defense, as SMU’s defense was ranked #64 in SP+ entering Saturday.

This team is as frightening as: Grandma’s Macaroni and Cheese. Apparently. Fear Level = 6

Michigan should worry about: The “September Maryland” myth has been largely debunked, but only largely.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Maryland cheatin’. They are second to last in the country with 10.3 penalties per game and dead last at 90.3 penalty yards per game. Michigan is #1 in the country at 2.7 penalties per game and #3 at 23.0 penalty yards per game. Maryland had 15 penalties against SMU. Not sure they can afford to give Michigan that much of a head start.

When they play Michigan: They are good at something, which will be new.

This week: @ Michigan, noon, FOX (Maryland +17)

 

[AFTER THE JUMP: this is the last week we can keep Iowa below the jump, so enjoy it while you can]

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Iowa (2-1, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Nevada, 27-0

Recap: Progress!

I know a 14 of 26 for 175 yards (6.7 YPA) may not SOUND like a lot. And I know it came against a defense that allowed 406 yards passing at 16.2 YPA the week before to Incarnate Word. And sure, their only passing touchdown came on a coverage bust that Spencer Petras almost overthrew. But compared to the first two weeks, this was the Spurrier Fun ‘n’ Gun on bath salts.

They got Nico Ragaini and Keagan Johnson back from injury, and as a result, Petras completed eight passes to wide receivers on the day, more than doubling their total from the previous two games. They even got their first explosive passing play of the year, a 46 yarder to Ragaini (sure, it was into double coverage, but shut up).

Defensively, the Hawkeyes are #1 in the nation at 2.8 yards per play allowed, #2 at 3.8 yards per pass attempt allowed (And Michigan’s #1 ranking of 3.6 YPA is… uh… not eligible to be discussed at this time), and #6 at 2.1 yards per carry allowed.

This team is as frightening as:

Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: This game took seven hours to play because of lightning delays. Seven hours. Of Iowa Football. They were playing Iowa Football at 1:30 a.m. local time. Can you imagine the depravity? That’s some “the ACLU has grave concerns” shit. Amnesty International is sending observers. UN Security Council Resolutions are being drafted, though they will be vetoed by the Russians.

Do you deny, Mr. Ferentz, that Iowa has placed and is placing short- and very-short range Petrases in the American Midwest? Yes or no? Don’t wait for the translation, Mr. Ferentz: yes or no?

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Okay, snark aside, this performance may have been as troubling as the first two. Petras’s long completions were either wide, wiiiiide open, or into coverage that he clearly didn’t see. He didn’t seem to know, or care, where the safety was on several of his throws, and he should have had a couple of interceptions. And the running game busted two long gains thanks primarily to some terrible back seven play by Nevada, and outside of those they averaged about 3.1 yards per carry from their backs.

When they play Michigan: Man up the outside receivers, bracket LaPorta, send everyone else at the big glowing “hit me” sign with the mustache.

This week: @ Rutgers, 7:00 p.m., FS1 (Iowa -7.5)

 

Indiana (3-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Western Kentucky, 33-30 (OT)

Indiana!

Recap: Stadiums put that big glowing rectangle with the numbers up there for a reason, and 3-0 is 3-0.

Indiana has been living a charmed existence of sorts; through three weeks, they have 1.4 expected wins based on how their games have gone, yet they have 3 actual win wins. They had an 11% post-game win expectancy against WKU, getting outgained by the Hilltoppers by nearly a yard and a half per play and needing a missed 44-yard field goal at the end of regulation to get to OT. But, as the youths say, scoreboard.

Connor Bazelak put up 364 yards passing, but he needed 55 attempts to get there, and that 6.6 YPA is even less impressive when you remember WKU gave up 6.0 YPA to Joey Yellen and Hawaii last week. Meanwhile, last week’s running game renaissance did not continue, as the Hoosiers were held to 3.4 YPC. Still, this win means that bowl eligibility remains vaguely on the table, with IU probably needing to beat Nebraska, Rutgers, and Maryland to get there.

This team is as frightening as: When the person at the counter says “enjoy your meal” and you say, “thanks, you too” and you’re stuck with that feeling for 10 minutes. Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: If Cade McNamara can’t get healthy, and JJ McCarthy gets abducted by aliens, and Davis Warren is indicted for RICO violations, and Alan Bowman gets on the wrong plane in a series of Home Alone-style hijinks and ends up in Barbados, and Alex Orji is on an absolute heater at the blackjack table and can’t leave, and Jayden Denegal is struck by an asteroid and is unharmed but the whole thing REALLY makes him reconsider his life and he quits football to pursue a career in musical theater, and Brandon Mann straps himself to an ACME rocket in an ill-fated roadrunner hunting situation gone wrong, and Andy Maddox gets stuck in the blood pressure machine at Walgreens, then Michigan is going to have to rely on the running game more than they would like.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan gets Indiana the week after Indiana plays Nebraska, which… more about that later.

When they play Michigan: If you consider the first three games as the preseason and Maryland, Iowa, and Indiana as the non-conference schedule, things don’t seem as laughable.

This week: @ Cincinnati, 3:30 p.m., ESPN2 (IU +15.5)

 

 

Penn State (3-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Auburn, 41-12

 

Dude is gonna be a problem. [Joe Hermitt/PennLive]

Recap: A very, very nice performance by Penn State. Almost TOO nice.

There comes a point in a blowout where you start to worry that this isn’t about your team being awesome so much as the other team being a tire fire (think about Michigan/Minnesota in 2017, where Michigan ran the same three running plays and brought the same edge pressure with Khaleke Hudson on every snap, and everything kept working). This is especially true when the most questionable parts of your team look awesome. And it is especially especially true when your opponent has been dealing with “are they about to literally and figuratively collapse” questions for months. And it is especially especially especially true when that team is a traditional Chaos Engine like, say, Auburn University.

In light of the above, the good news and the bad news for Penn State is that their offensive line MASHED. 6.3 yards per carry, with an average of 4.3 yards per carry BEFORE CONTACT. Nick Singleton rushed for 124 yards and 2 TDs on only 10 carries, and both Kaytron Allen and Devin Ford cracked 5.4 YPC. And Sean Clifford wasn’t sacked ONCE.

“Massive leap between the second and third weeks of Year 8” is plausible. It is not necessarily likely.

The most reasonable way to view this game is the middle case, which is basically where the teams were at halftime. Penn State had generally outplayed Auburn, but the line was struggling a bit (the running backs were at 3.8 yards per carry and Auburn was getting a lot of pressure on Clifford). Clifford, though, was 9 of 13 for 9.0 YPA. In other words, Penn State was leading an equally talented opponent despite their traditional offensive line struggles, which is a very good sign. You don’t even need to ask how much it mattered that Auburn handed the remote to their 6-year-old cousin for the entire second half.

This team is as frightening as: Same old Penn State… with a NEW HAT! Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: Penn State has had good running backs for years, but they haven’t had anyone good enough to make a real meal out of the scraps provided by the Penn State OL since Saquon left. Singleton might be that good.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Never forget that James Franklin lost to the worst Michigan team Brady Hoke ever fielded.

When they play Michigan: Penn State’s secondary, and especially their big, physical corners, seem uniquely suited to deal with Michigan’s wide receiver screen game and outside running game, even moreso than Iowa. Michigan is going to need to run the ball between the tackles and attack the middle of the field.

This week: vs. Central Michigan, noon, BTN (PSU -26)

 

Michigan State (2-1, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Washington, 39-28

Recap: So, if I am Michigan State, I’m a little concerned. I’m not necessarily concerned about my secondary getting ripped to shreds by Michael Penix, who threw for almost 400 yards at 10 yards per attempt, because we kinda already assumed my secondary was gonna be iffy again this year. I’m not concerned that we couldn’t generate anything in the running game, averaging 1.8 yards per running back carry and -0.5 yards (yes, negative 18 inches) before contact, because we kinda already assumed my offensive line was going to continue to struggle and neither of the new guys was likely to be Kenneth Walker. I’m not even concerned that my offensive coordinator continued to light downs on fire by running the ball between the tackles, or that my defensive coordinator was content to repeatedly rush 4 and drop 7 despite the fact that those 7 could have been 13 and it probably wouldn’t have mattered. I’m not even concerned that Michigan State allowed Washington to gain 99% of their available yards in the first six drives, and didn’t force a punt until Penix missed this throw to go up by 29:

Okay, sure, those things are concerning. But here’s my REAL concern: the case for Sparty being a contender this year was that last year’s “luck” wasn’t luck. It was about MSU generating those breaks and earning those extra inches. The premise was that maybe MSU was the embodiment of the Al Pacino speech from Any Given Sunday. And this game provided plenty of support for that theory. MSU converted their first four 4th down attempts (not gimmies, either; they were with 5, 3, 6, and 7 yards to go), including two touchdowns on what many would call low-percentage plays, and one of which was a do-over after MSU fumbled the snap on 4th and 2 but got called for an illegal snap. MSU turned Washington over on downs at the goal line TWICE, when Kalen DeBoer just forgot how to call plays. Washington even took their foot off the gas with a full quarter to go and gave MSU a chance to mount a comeback, which they did. The inches they needed were everywhere.

And they still lost by 11 points.

So what if those extra inches are no longer the difference between winning and losing, but are instead the difference between losing by 11 and losing by 21? What does that mean for State this year? And beyond?

This is our concern, Dude.

This team is as frightening as: Worrying that you aren’t worrying enough. Like that feeling like you forgot to do something important. Fear Level = 7.5

Michigan should worry about: Despite UW’s questionable playcalling, those two goal line stands weren’t a fluke. MSU’s defensive interior can be stout when they need to be (and when they don't need to worry about defending eligible receivers more than 12 yards downfield).

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Some people ⁠— myself included ⁠— drew parallels between Tucker’s 2021 season and Brady Hoke’s 2011 season; both were good teams that won more games than they probably should have. Lots of teams fit that description, though, so we needed more information before we could tell for sure. And yes, MSU looked rough in their first real test of the following season, but that happens to good teams, too. But, uh…

Serious Hoke vibes pic.twitter.com/yiX8RPlxTN

— Scott Bell (@sbell021) September 18, 2022

This all has me thinking: what would Brady Hoke NFTs have looked like? You can’t tell me you wouldn’t have wanted to be there when one of Dave Brandon’s marketing staffers walked into Brady Hoke’s office and had to explain what NFTs were, and then trying to convince Hoke that he needed to get involved in the creation, promotion, and sale of these things.

When they play Michigan: Unleash the full McCarthy.

This week: vs. Minnesota, 3:30 p.m., BTN (MSU +2)

 

Rutgers (3-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Temple, 16-14

Recap: Rutgers is 3-0 for the first time since… 2021? That can’t possibly be right. Check that again.

Huh. Will wonders never cease?

The Scarlet Knights pulled a Hawkeye Special, winning this game without an offensive touchdown. They got a 43-yard interception return on a batted ball in addition to three field goals. That, combined with three turnovers on downs, was enough to overcome only putting up 201 yards of offense at under 3.5 yards per play.

Quarterbacking is, as always, Rutgers’ biggest issue. Evan Simon is emphatically Just A Guy; he completed 9 of 15 passes for 52 yards (3.5 YPA) against Temple, and is sitting at 4.1 YPA against FBS teams. Noah Vedral still hasn’t played due to injury, and now Gavin Wimsatt is also banged up. Once the defense starts running up against more talented teams ⁠— which means at least 7, and probably 8, of their remaining 9 opponents ⁠— its hard to see these guys keeping Rutgers in many games.

This team is as frightening as: The prospect of Iowa and Rutgers meet at midfield before Saturday’s game like the Irish troops at Falkirk in the movie Braveheart. With their powers combined, they could plunge the Big Ten into darkness that would last a thousand years. Fear Level = 4.5

Michigan should worry about: Maybe Rutgers has been sandbagging for the last seven and a half years, and is secretly really good at this.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: If Rutgers is relying on “maybe we get Noah Vedral back,” that’s not a great place to be.

When they play Michigan: Even considering the talent differential, this feels like a really good matchup for Michigan. Offensively they’re a Rich Man’s Iowa. Defensively, they’re a Poor Man’s Illinois. We can work with that.

This week: vs. Iowa, 7:00 p.m., FS1 (Rutgers +7.5, O/U 34.5. Yep, 34.5. For a real actual FBS college football game)

 

Nebraska (1-3, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Oklahoma, 49-14

Recap: The result was unsurprising. The aftermath, though, was moderately unexpected; Interim Head Coach Mickey Joseph took full responsibility for the loss to Oklahoma… and then promptly fired defensive coordinator Erik Chinander.

Personally, I like this approach. Mickey Joseph should fire someone new every week until morale improves:

• Week 3: OC Mark Whipple (“offense not performing to potential”)
• Week 4: DL Coach Mike Dawson (“DL low-key kinda sucks”)
• Week 5: OL Coach Donovan Raiola (“not enough pukin’ in recent weeks”)
• Week 6: Lil' Red (“creepy AF”)
• Week 7: Scott Frost again (“maybe the first one didn’t take”)
• Week 8: Brian Ferentz (“for the best for all involved”)
• Week 9: University President Ted Carter (“can… can I do that?”)
• Week 10: Mike Riley (“still a really good dude tho”)
• Week 11: the players (“I think I’ve identified the issue”)
• Week 12: Mickey Joseph (“my work here is done”)

“We’re going to go in a different direction. That direction is, ‘the hell away from you, as fast as possible’.”

This team is as frightening as:

I met a traveller from an featureless land,
Who said—“Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the cornfield. . . . Near them, in the dirt,
Half sunk a shattered playsheet lies, whose rips,
And scribbled notes, and stains of tears,
Tell that its author well those fuckups understood
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless sheets,
The hands that signaled them, and the mouth that swore;
And on the clipboard, these words appear:
My name is ScottyFrostias, Husker of Huskers;
Look on my Program, ye Mighty, and despair!
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level farm roads stretch far away. Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: Is Nebraska cursed? Or contagious?

Let’s look at the evidence:

• Northwestern beat Nebraska in Week 0. Since then, Northwestern is 0-2 with losses to Duke (okay) and Southern Illinois (very not okay).
• North Dakota played Nebraska in Week 1 and came within a quarter of pulling the upset. Since then, they barely snuck by Northern Iowa and Northern Arizona by a combined 5 points and were outgained in both games.
• Georgia Southern opened the year with a 52-point win over Morgan State. Then they beat Nebraska in Week 2. This week they lost by 14 points to UAB.

Oklahoma gets Kansas State this week. The Sooners are a 13-point favorite. Let’s see where this goes.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: This was the first real defense Nebraska played, and they only managed 4.3 yards per play, and only 3.5 yards per play after their opening scripted touchdown drive.

When they play Michigan: The idea of Nebraska remaining a remotely coherent entity on November 12 is not a given. This thing could continue on its current aimless wander, or it could absolutely crater.

This week: Bye. Sweet, merciful bye.

 

Illinois (2-1, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Bye

Recap: No recap. Bye.

This team is as frightening as: Texting while driving. Everyone understands the theoretical risk but assumes THEY can do it safely. It still manages to kill people every year in completely preventable tragedies. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Illinois is not the best team in the Big Ten West right now… but is Illinois the most stable, most structurally competent team in the Big Ten West right now? Because it’s not Purdue, and it’s definitely not Iowa, and it’s very definitely not Nebraska, and OH SWEET MERCIFUL GOD Northwestern put the scissors down. So it’s Illinois, Minnesota, or Wisconsin. Wisconsin fans seem to think they’re going in a bad direction (which will likely be hastened by Ohio State this weekend), and Minnesota is led by PJ Fleck and could therefore implode at any moment… so, it’s Bert?

2022 has weird vibes, man.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Sure, they got robbed against Indiana, but the more information we get about Indiana, the less comfort that statement provides.

When they play Michigan: Eyes on the road, man.

This week: vs. Chattanooga, 7:30 p.m. tonight, BTN

 

Ohio State (3-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Toledo, 77-21

Toledo hasn’t lost this badly since they got stuck with Ohio 186 years ago.

Recap: Seen a murder.

This team is as frightening as: Clearing out the garbage disposal with your bare hands. Fear Level = 10

Michigan can sleep soundly about: They allowed 21 points, including 14 points in the first half.

Michigan should worry about: Touchdown, Touchdown, Touchdown, Touchdown, Touchdown, Touchdown, Touchdown, Punt (!), Touchdown, Touchdown, Touchdown, Touchdown, End of Game.

That seems excessive.

When they play Michigan: Michigan will NOT allow 77 points. Probably.

This week: vs. Wisconsin, 7:30 p.m., ABC (OSU -17.5)

 

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Colorado State (0-3, 0-0 MWC)

Last week: lost at Washington State, 38-7

Recap: Colorado State was outgained 447-249, and their offensive problem remains the same: they just cannot protect Clay Millen. The Rams allowed another 7 sacks in this game bringing their three-game total to 23 sacks allowed. This pace would shatter anything from at least the last decade, and I’d be willing to bet it would be the most since the NCAA started counting sacks as an official stat in 2000. To give you an idea how much this is hurting Colorado State’s offense, they are averaging 3.3 yards per carry without sacks included… and 1.0 yards per carry when you include sacks.

Defensively, Colorado State allowed touchdowns on their first 4 drives, with those drives averaging over 9.0 yards per play.

Yes, things are bleak in Colorado State City right now. But here’s the fever dream scenario: they beat Sacramento State on Saturday. Then they steal one from Nevada, who gave up 27 points to Iowa and is therefore by definition very very bad on defense. Then they beat Utah State, who barely squeaked by UConn and got blasted by Weber State. Then they have Hawai’i, which, yeah we’ll get to them shortly.

Four Win Colorado State. Mark it down.

(Please, please beat Sacramento State.)

This week: vs. Sacramento State, 4:00 p.m. (if you or someone you know is considering gambling on this game, please do not.)

 

 

Hawai’i (1-3, 0-0 MWC)

Last week: Beat Duquesne, 24-14

Unsurprisingly, a Google Image Search for “sad hawaii” doesn’t return much

Recap: Sigh.

We will not disparage Timmy Chang. This space is very Timmy Chang-positive, if for no other reason than “college football would be better if we had more guys who threw for 17,000 yards, 117 touchdowns, and 80 interceptions.” And while we won’t know for a while whether Timmy Chang is the answer, this current mess is not Timmy Chang’s fault. But boy howdy is it a mess.

Duquesne nearly doubled up Hawai’i in total yards, 364 to 184. Joey Yellen threw for 4.3 yards per attempt, and finished with a QBR of 4.8. Hawai’i got their points off (a) a 35-yard touchdown drive after a long kickoff return, (b) a 14-yard touchdown drive off of a blocked punt, (c) a pick-six on a screen pass, and (d) a 10-play, 33 yard field goal drive. Duquesne, on the other hand, reached Hawai’i territory on 9 of their 11 drives, but threw three picks.

If they don’t beat NMSU this weekend, Hawai’i may not win another game all year.

This week: @ New Mexico State, 8:00 p.m. (Hawai’i +2.5)