Well folks, we’ve reached the end of our journey for this season. We don’t post an Opponent Watch on Thanksgiving due to both common decency and repeated court rulings. Therefore, alas, our time together comes to an end.

As is custom (I think, who knows, we make this all up as we go), we’re going to take an extra look back at our initial thoughts on the Opponents that we Watched and see how dumb we were 11 weeks ago (and therefore how very very smart we are now). Some we nailed. Some we Hoosier’d.

Thank you all for bearing with me this year. Finding words has been a struggle from time to time. I don’t know why, and it’s odd experiencing Impostor Syndrome when doing something as dumb as this, but here we are. May you all have a happy Thanksgiving. Don’t overcook the turkey. Too late, you already overcooked the turkey.

About Last Week

The big strong man just wants a hug. Give the man a hug. 

[Fuller]

The Road Ahead

Maryland (5-5, 2-5 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Michigan State, 40-21

Recap: It was there to be had. But, like a Taulia Tagovialoa pass, it was on a shelf too high for Maryland to reach.

Despite racking up 350 passing yards and 6.2 yards per play, Maryland reached the MSU 5, 16, 24, 34, and 40 on drives that scored zero points. Much of the blame will fall on Tagovialoa, but he got Sean Clifford levels of protection on anything resembling a passing down. Sometimes his linemen were beaten, but often he just had a free rusher in his face. He was only sacked four times, but he was running for his life all afternoon.

Defensively, Maryland’s back seven is in shambles. They have surrendered more than 7.0 yards per pass attempt in each of their last eight games, which includes games against Illinois, Iowa, and post-apocalypse Indiana. They’re surrendering 8.8 yards per attempt in conference play, allowing 17 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions.

Original Fear Level: 3.5

This team is as frightening as: Once more, with feeling.

West African Mud Turtle has SEEN some things, man.

Current Fear Level = 3.5

Michigan should worry about: Maryland has beaten five real actual college football teams this year, three of whom play football in power conferences.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Those five teams are a combined 17-33 this year. And the only team they’ve beaten in their last six games was post-apocalypse Indiana by 3.

When they play Michigan: People worry about Michigan looking ahead to Ohio State, but it might be Maryland

Next game: vs. Michigan, 3:30 p.m., BTN (Maryland +14.5)

[AFTER THE JUMP: WE never claimed to be smart.]

Ohio State (9-1, 7-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Purdue, 59-31

Recap: Much win. So points.

Original Fear Level: 10

This team is as frightening as:

Current Fear Level = 10

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Maryland, Penn State, Nebraska and Purdue have all had success in the air against them in their last four real* games.

*excluding post-apocalypse Indiana

**this is where we point out that post-apocalypse Indiana DID have passing success against Maryland, which bodes well for this weekend.

Michigan should worry about: Ohio State leads the conference in points, total yards, yards per play, passing yards, yards per pass attempt, passer rating, yards per carry, 3rd down conversion rate, red zone conversion rate, first downs, turnovers lost, and most plays from scrimmage of 10+ yards, 20+ yards, 30+ yards, 40+ yards, and 50+ yards. So, offense. They lead in offense.

When they play Michigan: Michigan is going to win.

Yeah, I said it.

Next game: vs. Michigan State, noon, ABC (OSU -19)

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Western Michigan (6-5, 3-4 MAC)

Last week: Lost at Eastern Michigan, 22-21

Recap: Western had a 21-9 lead late in the 3rd quarter, but they surrendered 13 straight points and lost to Eastern for the third straight season. Skyy Moore caught 12 passes for 181 yards, including a 74 yard touchdown. Moore is now #4 in the nation (tied with Jahan Dotson) with 80 catches and is #10 with 1051 receiving yards.

Original Fear Level: 4.

Hindsight Fear Level: 3. They’re okay for a MAC team, but the looming poop emoji-shaped shadow of 2020 Michigan Football probably made us overrate the scariness of “okay for a MAC team.”

Next game: @ Northern Illinois, 7:00 p.m. Tuesday, ESPNU

Washington (4-6, 3-4 Pac-12)

Last week: Lost to Arizona State, 35-30

Recap: Washington scored a touchdown to go ahead 24-14 at the beginning of the fourth quarter. But immediately following that score, they gave up an Ishtar-style 20 play, 81 yard touchdown drive that lasted 9:09 and broke the back of the Jimmy Lake era. Despite leading by 3 points with under 6 minutes left, the game was basically over. Washington went 3-and-out, Arizona State scored, Washington threw a pick-6, and a 10-point lead became an 11-point deficit. Washington scored a cosmetic touchdown with 0:03 left, and actually recovered the resulting onside kick, but the Hail Mary was knocked down.

Sorry, did I say “Hail Mary?” I meant “the drag route thrown seven yards past the line of scrimmage and 46 yards short of the end zone was knocked down.” I know Jimmy Lake and John Donovan weren’t there, but their spirit was certainly in the building.

Original Fear Level: 7

Hindsight Fear Level: 4.

Only Indiana keeps this from being the wrongest we’ve been about anyone this year.

Jimmy Lake lasted thirteen games as Washington’s head coach. Thirteen. With a 7-7 record (and a 6-5 record in conference play). Without a major scandal. And with Washington agreeing to eat a nearly $10 Million buyout to shoo him out the door. Even in this day and age, that is astounding.

Was it the right move? I have no earthly idea. The product on the field was bad, but not cataclysmic; after a reeeeeally rough start against Montana and Michigan, they improved to “mediocre,” with three conference wins and three competitive losses to UCLA, Oregon, and Arizona State. The off-field stuff ⁠— at least the stuff we know about publicly ⁠— wasn’t great, but again, it wasn’t shitcanned-after-13-games bad. He booped a player on the sidelines, and he apparently maybe possibly allegedly shoved a player into a locker in 2019 (i.e. before they give him the Big Chair), but he wasn’t Art Briles or DJ Durkin or even fellow shit-canned Apple Stater Nick Rolovich. Recruiting wasn’t going gangbusters, but again, being in the middle of the Pac-12 with months left in the cycle is a red flag but not a ‘pull the ripcord’ event.

Ultimately, I think it just boils down to “we realized he’s just not the dude.” It’s the opposite of the Clay Helton or Randy Edsell, where you wait for his pants to completely fall off so its easier for him to walk away.

Next game: @ Colorado, 3:00 p.m., Pac-12 Network (UW -6)

Northern Illinois (8-3, 6-1 MAC)

Last week: Won at Buffalo, 33-27 (OT)

Recap: Against all odds and most logic, Northern Illinois locked up the MAC West by beating Buffalo in overtime. NIU put up 505 yards of total offense, including 308 yards and 4 TDs on the ground. Buffalo fumbled on the one yard line in overtime, and NIU responded with a 25 yard touchdown on their first play. Chaos, I tell you.

Original Fear Level: 2.

Hindsight Fear Level: 3.

This is tough. On the one hand, they were much better than we were expecting; their preseason Vegas over-under was 3.5 wins. No one would have expected Rocky Lombardi to put up a better passer rating than Graham Mertz, Dylan Morris, or Spencer Petras, or for more yards per attempt than Spencer Rattler or Sean Clifford.

On the other hand:

Next game: vs. Western Michigan, 7:00 p.m. Tuesday, ESPNU

Rutgers (5-5, 2-5 B1G)

Last week: Won at Indiana, 38-3

Recap: Yes, Indiana is bad and injured and bad and very bad. But Rutgers won a conference game by 35 points, their largest ever margin of victory in a Big Ten game. This was only the second time they have ever beaten a Big Ten team by more than 11 points. The other? In 2014 against… Indiana.

Statistically, the game was pretty close if you just look at the counting stats. But if you look at the super-advanced analytics, you will notice that Indiana turned the ball over six times, plus two additional turnovers on downs and a missed field goal. Lots of fans would overlook the impact of giving away nine possessions in a single football game… but not this website. Not on my watch.

This win sets up a massive showdown. Assuming Michigan beats Maryland and Penn State beats Rutgers, next week's Maryland/Rutgers game will be for ALL THE QUICK LANES BOWL. 

So. Close. 

Original Fear Level: 4.

Hindsight Fear Level: 3.

There’s no getting around the fact that they’re still bad. But they’re one win away from bowl eligibility, and they’ve won multiple Big Ten games in back-to-back years for the first time since joining the Big Ten.

Next game: @ Penn State, noon, BTN (Rutgers +17)

Wisconsin (7-3, 5-2 B1G)

Last week: Beat Northwestern, 35-7

Recap: Just a good old fashioned ass-whoopin.’

Original Fear Level: 8.

Hindsight Fear Level: 8.

This one took a little while to come back around, but Wisconsin is probably who we thought they were going to be. Were they that when Michigan played them? It’s hard to say, but… maybe?

They probably should have beaten a fully healthy Penn State ⁠— remember, they ran 44 more plays than Penn State and had a 1st and goal at the 1 yard line to take the lead with 2 minutes left before a Graham Mertz fumble ⁠— and they were leading Notre Dame in the 4th quarter before a kick return and 2 pick-sixes made the score all crooked. The defense has been elite all season. The only ral difference is that Wisconsin has found a running game in the interim, especially with the emergence of freshman Braelon Allen

Fancy stats have their limits, but Wisconsin is #4 is SP+. They are very good. And the game was in Madison. I wouldn’t want to play that game again tomorrow.

Next game: vs. Nebraska, 3:30 p.m., ABC (UW -10)

Nebraska (3-7, 1-6 B1G)

Last week: Bye

Recap: The dream is still alive.

Not Nebraska’s dream, of course. That shit died in Week 0, and has become progressively deader ever since then (with a brief zombie revival against Northwestern). No, the dream that lives is my dream of a statistical feat so impressive it would thaw even the coldest of Big Ten enthusiasts’ cynical hearts.

Nebraska has two games left: at Wisconsin this week, then home against Iowa. If they can lose both games by a combined 13 points or fewer, they will have outscored their Big Ten opponents while also going 1-8 in conference play.

Original Fear Level: 4

Hindsight Fear Level: I mean… 7?

Nebraska is bright but unmotivated kid in class who aces the tests but doesn’t do any of his homework. Is he smarter than plenty of B- and C-students? Sure. But on the first day of class, the teacher made very clear how grades were going to be calculated.

Nebraska gets some credit for being a pretty good football team. In the abstract, if you had to choose a team to successfully execute a play, there are about a hundred teams who are worse than Nebraska. Hell, they are a Top-25 team to SP+. But what does it say about a program if “being good at football” isn’t enough to allow you to accomplish the one goal of football, which is, despite what we tell our children, TO WIN THE GODDANG GAME.

Next game: @ Wisconsin, 3:30 p.m., ABC (Nebraska +9.5)

Northwestern (3-7, 1-6 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Wisconsin, 35-7

Recap: I love the Big Ten Network.

I didn’t see much of this game because (a) it was on at the same time as Michigan/Penn State, and (b) it consisted entirely of Wisconsin and Northwestern. But I happened to flip over at one point early in the second half and the announcers were talking about how this could have been a much different game if Northwestern hadn’t come up empty on their opening drive (which went 82 yards in 19 plays but ended in a pick). And I chuckled, because no it wouldn’t have. But I then switched back late in the fourth quarter, and they were TALKING ABOUT IT AGAIN. When the score was 35-7. And Northwestern had scored zero offensive points. And Wisconsin was literally outgaining Northwestern by 4 yards per play.

It’s sometimes hard for me to write about Northwestern football (or Northwestern basketball, for that matter) in a way that makes it seem interesting. I cant imagine if my job was to try to make Northwestern football seem interesting, LIVE, and in a way that doesn’t make it sound like you’re laughing at them.

Original Fear Level: 5.

Hindsight Fear Level: 2.

If you made me pick a Big Ten team to play right now, I genuinely don’t know if I would pick Northwestern or Indiana. But at least Indiana got this way through injury. This was what 2021 Northwestern was DESIGNED to be. This is how they drew it up.

Next game: vs. Purdue, noon, BTN (NW +12)

Michigan State (9-1, 6-1 B1G)

Last week: Beat Maryland, 40-21

Recap: Another day, another 350 passing yards allowed, another comfortable win. But now they play Ohio State, and Ohio State is very, very much not Maryland.

Vegas has Michigan State as a 19-point dog. Bill Connelly is more optimistic at MSU +17. Prove me wrong, Sparty.

Original Fear Level: 7.

Hindsight Fear Level: 8.

Admittedly, the initial “7” did not represent our expectations of the team as a whole, but rather the expectation that MSU would marshal all of its resources for one extremely stupid Thermopylae. We certainly did not see Michigan State being in the Big Ten East conversation, let alone the College Football conversation.

That said, Michigan State is #22 in SP+ (#36 on offense, #16 on defense). Their post-game win expectancies suggest they should have about 7.7 wins, not 9. And they have largely ridden one transformative player to paper over some significant issues, especially on defense. So I don’t think it’s TOO disrespectful to suggest that MSU, while having a fine season that exceeds all expectations, miiiiiight be living a bit of a charmed life, and that maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe giving Mel Tucker one of the largest contracts in the history of professional sports is perhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaps a bit premature.

Next game: @ Ohio State, noon, ABC (MSU +19)

Indiana (2-8, 0-7 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Rutgers 38-3

Recap: We haven’t had cause for a Rutgers-style ‘Reading The Box Score As If It Were a Dis Track” event in a while, but:

• Donaven McCulley, Grant Gremel, and Jack Tuttle combined to go 18 of 42 (42.8%) for 177 yards (2.6 YPA), 0 TDs, and 2 INTs. That’s a combined quarterback rating of 68.7. For comparison purposes, in 2018 when Art Sitkowski finished the season with 4 TD’s, 18 INT’s, and a 4.2 YPA average for Rutgers, his passer rating was 76.4
• Jack Tuttle was Indiana’s leading rusher with 16 yards on 3 carries.
• Indiana lost the turnover battle 6-0.
• Indiana averaged 3.5 yards per play.
• Indiana ran 74 plays, and only one of those plays went for more than 16 yards.
• Indiana had more total punting yards (265) than total yards (262)… and again, this is in the context of losing 9 punting opportunities to turnovers and turnovers on downs.
• Raiqwon O’Neal outscored Indiana 6-3 on the strength of one 7-yard carry (a throwback lateral) for a touchdown.

On the bright side, this happened:

Indiana fans are going shirtless.pic.twitter.com/uJAmUP2xWu

— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) November 13, 2021

Good to see spirits remain high.

Original Fear Level: 8

Hindsight Fear Level: Listen,,,

Next game: vs. Minnesota, 3:30 p.m., BTN (IU +7)