PROGRAMMING NOTE: We are planning to do a watch-along on Thursday night during Michigan vs. Illinois! We did one such event for the Michigan/MSU hockey game a few weeks back and got good reviews on it, so we're trying it out for basketball, with the added bonus of being a national game on ESPN, so everyone should be able to watch-along if they so choose. I'll advertise it again a couple more times before Thursday just to give everyone notice, and the link to the stream will be posted on the site on Thursday before we go live at 7 pm EST. Join us if you want! 

After being buried by this very site just 5.5 weeks ago, your Michigan Wolverines men's basketball team is back in the NCAA Tournament hunt after three straight big wins, beating MSU and Wisconsin at home and Rutgers on the road last Thursday. The NCAA Tournament, while still not likely yet, is very much in the conversation as we enter the final week of the regular season. The Big Ten Tournament picture is also extremely unsettled, with a pile up of teams from the two through ten spot in the conference, Michigan included. Today we'll be looking at where Michigan sits in terms of their hopes of making the NCAA Tournament, what they need to do to get in and who to cheer for/against nationally, as well as a quick look at the final week of jostling for BTT seeding, with a brief rooting guide there too: 

 

Michigan's Bubble Profile 

The Wolverines enter this week as one of the most bubbly teams in the country (bubblicious??), either one of the very last teams in or the very first teams out, depending on who you look at. Among the big brand bracketologists, Jerry Palm of CBS has Michigan the first team out and Joe Lunardi of ESPN has Michigan the fourth team out. 1-3-1 Sports, one of the Bracket Matrix's best bracketologists over the last four seasons, has Michigan as the third team out. In the Matrix's most recent bracket update, Michigan appeared in six of 97 brackets, indicating that the team still has work to do to be in the tournament field, but they are within striking distance of doing so. 

As for Michigan's credentials, Torvik presents their team sheet as the following: 55th in NET, 48th in KPI and 53rd in strength of record (SOR) for an average of 50.5 among the resume metrics, and 54th in BPI, 41st in KenPom, and 31st in Sagarin for an average of 42nd among the efficiency metrics. In terms of their wins, Michigan is 3-10 in Q1 games (1-4 in Q1A), 6-1 in Q2 games, 4-0 in Q3 games, and 4-1 in Q4 games. The biggest impediment to Michigan's resume at this point in time may well be that anchor of a loss to Central Michigan in late December, as the Chips are a dreadful team that no good MAC team should be losing to, let alone an at-large tournament contender. CMU is 10-19 on the season and 5-11 in MAC play, tied for 3rd worst in the league. They rank 318th in NET and 326th in KenPom. It was a disastrous loss no matter how you slice it. 

Among the eight teams in CBS' last four in/first four out bucket, Michigan and ASU are the only teams with a Q4 loss (ASU lost to Texas Southern on the road). It's something that seriously hurts bubble teams and it's a major issue right now. On the flip side, though, the Wolverines can argue that they are tied for 2nd in the B1G, a conference poised to put up to nine teams in the NCAA Tournament. If that spot in the conference can be maintained when the regular season is over, it will be hard to keep the Maize & Blue out. Of course, the flip side of this argument is that while Michigan has been good in B1G play (second best in net efficiency in conference games!), their non-conference showing was a big fat goose egg. In some ways it reminds me of the 2019 and 2020 Michigan Hockey teams under Mel Pearson who would play terribly the first few months of the season and then catch fire in conference play in January/February, but would still be a fringe bubble team because they're having to dig themselves out of a giant hole created in the first half of the season. 

This one still hurts [Bill Rapai]

Michigan's Q1 record of 3-10 is not good, but playing 13 Q1 games does show how competitive Michigan's schedule was and how deep the B1G is. When you consider the 6-1 record against Q2, a 9-11 record in Q1/Q2 games isn't too shabby and not far off from other bubble squads (Wisconsin = 10-11, OKST = 8-13, WVU = 10-13, Boise St. = 9-5, ASU = 9-8, UNC = 7-11). At this point you can say that Michigan can shore themselves up if they can add a couple more Q1 wins to that bucket, so that their Q1/Q2 record isn't just off the backs of Q2 wins. Thankfully, the schedule sets up rather favorably for that the rest of the way, with two Q1-A road games this week and then the BTT looming. 

Looking at the remaining schedule, Michigan would feel good about itself if it can win one of those two games this week. Doing so would add another "signature" win to the resume, bump all the metrics up further, and keep your Q1/Q2 record in check, as opposed to sliding to 9-13. Winning none of the games this week puts the Wolverines in a brutal spot entering the BTT, with Torvik's Teamcast at that point giving them 3% odds of making it in as an at-large. Winning one of the two bumps the odds up to 45.8% if the win is against Illinois, and 56.4% if it's against Indiana. Make-it-or-break-it time.

Let's say they beat Illinois and lose to Indiana. In that case the first BTT opponent is likely someone like Iowa. What if you win that game? At that point Torvik has it at 66% for an at-large bid and you're feeling pretty decent going into Selection Sunday. In other words, that's the formula: go at least 1-1 this week, win your first BTT game, and the odds are more likely than not that Michigan can make it in. It'd also be nice to get some help... 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Rooting and seeding scenarios that will make your head spin!]

 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Bubble Rooting Guide 

How about the other teams on the bubble? As a Michigan partisan, you want to see those teams SUFFER and clear up spots on the bubble for Juwan Howard's squad to jump in the picture. The last teams in (and the other bubble out teams) via the Matrix are: 

- Boise St.: The Broncos are the only team on the 10 line that I included, but it's not out of the question they could slip as the last team on that line in the Matrix. Boise is 2nd in the MWC behind a very good San Diego State team, in the mix with Nevada who's just above the bubble and Utah State down at the bottom of this list of teams. Boise St. plays a HUGE game tonight against SDSU at home, and then they go on the road to Utah State. It could be a week that sees BSU shore up their position or tumble down the board. For rooting sake, I think we'd prefer to see them lose to SDSU but beat Utah State because catching the Broncos is less important than keeping Utah State down. 

- Memphis: Memphis is 2nd in the AAC with a 12-4 record in conference play behind national #1 Houston, and they are the first team on the 11 line to the Bracket Matrix, in decent position but still with plenty of basketball to play. In a league like the AAC, you're trying to avoid pitfall games and Memphis will be doing that on Thursday when they play @SMU. Michigan should be hoping the Tigers fall into that trap, in addition to hoping they do not beat Houston at home on Sunday. A win there for the Tigers should all but lock up their at-large berth.

- USC: The Trojans are tied with Arizona for 2nd in the PAC-12 but are still not securely in. They currently sit in the second rung on the 11 line, at the end of the "last four byes" grouping. They finish up with two games against notable teams, a home game Thursday against #8 Arizona and then a Saturday home game against fellow bubble team ASU. For Michigan's sake, I think we want USC to lose to Arizona (denying them a marquee win) but to beat ASU, as Michigan is closer to ASU than USC. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

- Mississippi St.: MSU is square on the bubble, somewhere between last four in and last four byes according to most bracketologists, in good shape but with work to do. They are only 7-9 in the SEC, bolstered by a stronger non-conference, and have two SEC games remaining. They host a bad South Carolina team tonight (obviously cheering for an upset) and then go on the road to a decent Vanderbilt team. The Commodores are outside the bubble picture, so we are safe to cheer for the Bulldogs to lose here, too. 

- West Virginia: WVU is another firm bubble team, typically ranked in the "last four in" category. They are a rough 6-11 in Big XII play, but bracketologists are cutting them some slack playing in a hard league and with a strong non-conference resume. Unfortunately for Michigan, WVU solidified their position in winning a legit Q1 game against a good Iowa State squad last night. The Mounties play one more game on Saturday, a home game against #11 K-State, so Michigan fans ought to be rooting for the 'Cats to deny WVU a second Q1 win this week. 

- Oklahoma St.: The Pokes are just about at the cut line entering the week and Michigan got a boost last night when OKST lost to Baylor at home 74-68, robbing them of a chance for a pivotal Q1 win. Their lone remaining regular season game is @Texas Tech on Saturday, who are buried at the bottom of the Big XII standings. Thus, a Cowboy loss in that game would likely toss them off the bubble entirely and therefore is the optimal outcome for Michigan. 

- Wisconsin: The first B1G team to appear is Wisconsin, who is the Matrix's final team in the field after their loss Sunday to Michigan. At 16-12, the situation is extremely precarious for Wisconsin, but they've got a chance to change that on Thursday night with a home game for Purdue. We are #BoilerUp all the way in that game. The Badgers finish @Minnesota on Sunday; cheer for a Gopher win but keep your expectations very low. 

[David Wilcomes]

- Arizona St.: You may recall Michigan getting blasted by ASU in the non-conference. Well, funny enough, both teams find themselves nearly at the cut line as we hit the regular season's final week, both slightly bubble out at this time. ASU did wonders for itself by knocking off Arizona on Saturday on a miraculous half-court shot, which is a bummer for Michigan but oh well. The 20-9 Sun Devils still have work to do and get two more chances to do that work, a road game at #4 UCLA on Thursday and then a road game against USC, who is just above the bubble, on Saturday. A win in either game has ASU sitting pretty going into the conference tournaments. Losses in both has them slip sliding away. We want the latter. 

- North Carolina: Another one of Michigan's non-conference opponents, UNC's season has been defined by their fall from preseason #1 to bubble team, ranked as the second team out of the picture by the Matrix, with work still to do. UNC sits at 19-11 overall and 11-8 in the ACC. They beat a sad FSU team last night and then have the usual end of season finale against Duke on Saturday in Chapel Hill. Duke is a solid 7 seed and not on the bubble, so the rooting interest here is for the Blue Devils to win on the road. 

- Penn St.: These guys got bucked from the last four in category to the first four out after losing at home to Rutgers on Sunday, a game that saw them blow a 20 point second half lead. That was good news for Michigan's at-large hopes, but more help would be a plus. The Nittany Lions have two games remaining, a road game at Northwestern on Wednesday and then a home game against Maryland on Sunday. Both of those teams are solidly in the tournament, so Michigan fans should cheer for both to beat the Lions.  

- Clemson: The Clemson Tigers find themselves a couple spots lower on the bubble than UNC, despite being a couple spots higher than the Tar Heels in the ACC standings. Like Michigan, Clemson is using a strong conference record (13-5, tied for third) to drive their bubble bid, but are currently in the first four out group. Tonight the Tigers get a huge opportunity to propel themselves into the tourney picture when they go to Charlottesville to take on UVA. Michigan fans should be cheering like hell for Virginia. Clemson finishes their regular season at home on Saturday against 10-19 Notre Dame so while Michigan should be cheering for the Irish (yuck), don't get too excited. Ensuring Clemson doesn't get that win tonight is far more important, though. 

- Utah St.: As mentioned briefly in the Boise State section, the Aggies are in the thick of things in the Mountain West but they have lots of ground to make up. They go on the road to UNLV in a Q2 game and then host Boise State. For Michigan's sake, we would like to see the Aggies lose both (and go out quickly in the MWC Tournament). 

 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Big Ten Tournament Rooting Guide

The Wolverines enter the week in a pile up of B1G teams clustered in the middle of the standings. Here're the current standings: 

Record			NET				KP/Torvik Avg			OFFENSE			DEFENSE
Team	OVR		B1G	RK	Q1		Q2	Nat Rk (chg)		Proj. B1G Rec.	KP		BT	KP	BT
PUR	24-5		13-5	5th	9-4		5-1	5.5		15-5	10th		12th	19th	14th
IU	20-9		11-7	18th	5-8		6-1	22.5		12-8	21th		24th	40th	47th
MD	20-9		11-7	21st	3-8		7-1	21.5		12-8	26th		32nd	30th	42nd
NW	20-9		11-7	41st	7-5		4-4	43		12-8	92nd		80th	25th	23rd
M	17-12		11-7	55th	3-10		6-1	43.5		12-8	41st		45th	60th	64th
ILL	19-10		10-8	34th	3-9		6-1	39.5		11-9	69th		85th	24th	30th
IA	18-11		10-8	43rd	4-8		8-2	47		11-9	5th		6th	171th	195th
RUT	18-11		10-8	32nd	6-6		3-2	30.5		12-8	170th		174th	3rd	3rd
MSU	17-11		9-8	33rd	6-9		4-1	27.5		10-9	52nd		48th	33rd	29th
PSU	17-12		8-10	59th	3-7		4-5	49		9-11	14th		14th	137th	148th
WIS	16-12		8-10	72nd	6-6		4-5	68		9-11	153rd		154th	21st	22nd
NEB	15-14		8-10	52nd	3-10		4-4	100.5		9-11	166th		173rd	58th	69th
OSU	12-17		4-14	63rd	1-11		5-5	66.5		5-15	28th		36th	118th	126th
MINN	7-20		1-16	237th	1-11		0-7	228.5		1-18	272nd		285th	168th	166th

The Torvik projected B1G records here are playing the odds, saying everyone is going to go finish 1-1 except Purdue and Rutgers going 2-0 and Minnesota finishing 0-2. If the season finished with those projected records, and Michigan were in a five-way tie for second at 12-8, the seeding would be determined by the cumulative record of each team against the other teams in the grouping. Another way to look at the projected records and standings before we get into seeding scenarios is this handy matrix from Reddit's r/CollegeBasketball forum: 

It's a mess! 

What we know about seeding to this point is pretty straightforward. Minnesota is locked into #14 and Ohio State into #13. Purdue needs one win to lock up the #1 seed and that seems very likely, even if the Boilers have been slumping recently. As for Michigan, they cannot finish below 9th, meaning that they have at least ensured that no game involving Michigan will be played on Wednesday of next week. One win this week guarantees that Michigan will finish ahead of MSU and would require Illinois, Rutgers, or Iowa to sweep their games in order to tie with Michigan, while forcing the teams they're tied with to sweep to finish ahead. I know that's a mouthful and may be a bit to wrap your head around. Here's the remaining schedules: 

- Purdue: @Wisconsin, ILL 

- Indiana: Iowa, Michigan 

- Maryland: @OSU, @PSU 

- Northwestern: PSU, @Rutgers 

- Michigan: @ILL, @IU 

- Illinois: Michigan, @Purdue 

- Iowa: @IU, Nebraska 

- Rutgers: @Minn, NW 

- MSU: @Nebraska, OSU 

- PSU: @NW, MD 

- Wisconsin: Purdue, @Minn. 

- Nebraska: MSU, @Iowa 

I omitted Minnesota and Ohio State because their seeds are locked in and irrelevant from this section. If the goal is for Michigan to get a top four bye in the BTT, and we assume the reasonable scenario of Michigan going 1-1 this week, then what needs to happen? Well, like I said, by winning one game you can't finish lower than 8th, so there's four teams you have to be above or win tiebreakers with. Illinois, Iowa, and Rutgers can't be tied with you if they also go 1-1 (or 0-2). Beating Illinois knocks them out right there, guaranteeing at least a 7th place finish, though Illinois' road trip to Purdue also likely gets the job done. In a perfect world, you'd rather win the IU game than the Illinois game if you can only pick one, but that won't affect my rooting on Thursday obviously. Iowa goes to Indiana as well as hosting Nebraska. Michigan should be cheering for Indiana against the Hawkeyes. Rutgers goes to Minnesota and hosts Northwestern... you're hoping for a Miracle against Minnesota but probably cheering for the Knights against the 'Cats. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

The reason is because Michigan is comfortable finishing tied with Rutgers (1-0 H2H record) and Northwestern (2-0 H2H record). Northwestern plays PSU (we want NW for bubble-sake), so a loss by the 'Cats against Rutgers gets them an identical 1-1 finish to Michigan. Looking at Maryland, we want the Buckeyes to do us a solid and upset the Terps, while we'd prefer Maryland to beat Penn State (also for bubble reasons). That ensures the 1-1 finish. Finally, Indiana has Iowa and Michigan, both at home. As I stated previously, the optimum outcome here is Indiana beating Iowa and then losing to Michigan. 

I felt like a codebreaker trying to come up with the perfect set of outcomes using the assumption of Michigan going 1-1, but this is what the standings would look like as a result: 

Purdue (15-5), Indiana (12-8)/Northwestern (12-8)/Maryland (12-8)/Michigan (12-8)/Rutgers (12-8)

Of those five teams, Michigan would be 5-2 against the group, the best record, while Rutgers would be 4-2, followed by Maryland 3-2, Northwestern and Indiana 2-5. So, the BTT seeding would be Purdue 1, Michigan 2, Rutgers 3, Maryland 4, Northwestern 5, Indiana 6. Iowa and Illinois would be tied at 11-9, with the Hawkeyes having the tiebreaker, so they would be the 7, in-line to play Michigan in the quarterfinals. That's a draw I'd overall be very happy with and would be the best case scenario here, under the parameters I set out in this exercise.

Of course, if Michigan simply goes 2-0 this week then they would be in great position for a top four bye. But if they don't, the general principles for rooting I've laid out are this: cheer against PSU and Wisconsin for bubble purposes, cheer for the teams Michigan is tied with currently to all go 1-1 because Michigan fairs well in the tiebreaker, and it's okay if Rutgers goes 2-0 to close, also for tiebreaker reasons.

That's my best advice for following this hectic as hell final week of college basketball.