Michigan Gets Oklahoma State In Indy
[Paul Sherman]
Michigan's a seven seed in Indianapolis for the first round of the NCAA tournament, drawing 10-seed Oklahoma State. Okie State is a lot like Michigan: they're the #1 offense in the country on Kenpom... and the #133 defense. They're either really hot or not so hot depending on how you look at it:
- Okie State has won 10 of their last 14, but...
- They've lost their last three.
They're #23 overall on Kenpom.
Should Michigan advance they're highly likely to take on #2 Louisville, which is basically the same kind of team Louisville usually is: high pressure defense, big trees who block stuff on the inside, buckets of OREBs. Kenpom has them #6 in the country, so they're not an unfair draw for a 2. Unfortunate, perhaps.
Good news: it's a Friday/Sunday session.
Northwestern gets an 8 and a first round against 15-loss Vandy. What the fudge.
Oh well. Bet the over against OSU (NNTOSU).
Kinda disapointed with the 7 seed in a super tough division, but all the excitement of the day makes me forget quickly!
bet Oklahoma State and Louisville are more disappointed. When a team gets underseeded, it's not the underseeded team that is getting screwed, it's the teams that they play that are getting screwed.
was more underseeded than were are though. I don't mind being a 7 seed, but man, we're a pickem as a 7 seed facing the 24th ranked team in kenpom that has the best offense in the country.
We should have been a 6 and they should have been an 8 probably. I would much prefer every single one of the 8s and 9s to Oklahoma State. Vandernbilt with 15 losses is a 9! Michigan State is a 9! Seton Hall who is 53rd in kenpom is a 9! And we get the 24th ranked team? Brutal draw.
But again, get past them and it's not a horrible path. Not necessarily favorable, but fair at least.
Just win the games.
mostly because of where Minnie landed as a 5. It's unbelievable to me that their considered 2 seeds better.
And I thought Wisconsin got screwed too. An 8? For the #2 seed in the conference? How bad was their SOS?
is not a good defensive unit. I think they are 133rd on Kenpom.
March 13th, 2017 at 12:52 AM ^
they're very good at shooting threes (40.3 percent for 8th best in the country) but they only take the 181st most threes in the country. They're the 6th best offensive rebounding team in the country. They're a very good FT shooting team, but don't necessarily get to the line much.
Weird team statistically. The OREBs scare me. That's been a bit of our problem spot. Teams like OSU and Minnesota rode OREBs to wins despite being bad at shooting. But OSU is also good at shooting. They have a little 6'1 guard that has a high FT rate and the 3rd (!!!) best assist rate in the country which is a nightmare matchup for us. He's going to dribble drive all over our guards and kick to their shooters. Sounds like Nate Mason but a better passer with better shooters to pass to.
They're the best offense in the country and live off doing what we struggle most with (offensive rebounds and dribble penetration).
They're very bad at defense but it looks like it's because they foul a lot. We don't run an offense that lends itself to getting fouled so that might not be good. They're small so if they're able to defend the perimeter (the allow a relatively low number of threes), they could have success against us.
Very unfortunate matchup. Probably would have rather taken any other team on the 8, 9 or 10 lines. Even Wichita State who Ok St beat by 17 (!!) at WSU.
But we're a really good team, so it's a coin flip. Let's get it done.
I live in Big 12 country, and I'm pretty sure Oklahoma State is pissed about this slot. Beat the Cowboys!
And I can't wait for the games this weekend! Really makes up for the Big Ten tournament not being in town this year.
March 13th, 2017 at 12:54 AM ^
they completely ignored the last three days. Wisconsin as an 8?! Minnesota still as a 5?!?!
wait, what?
Minnesota a 5 and Wisconsin an 8.
I don't understand how they came up with the Big Ten's seedings. At all.
That said, it's stupid. Anyone with a pulse knows Minnesota is not 3 seeds better than Wisconsin.
but they beat MSU in the Big ten tournament, so they must be awesome, right Mark Hollis?
/s
but were given a seed indicative of a top 36 team. Northwestern is 51st but supposedly top 32? Maryland was 34th in RPI but a top 24 team? I'm sorry but the committee seems to have ignored the entire BTT. Not sure how in the world those teams can justify being 12-15 spots ahead of their RPI if that's supposed to be so heavily weighted.
forget that Maryland and Minnesota are 6 seeds. Wisconsin is an 8 seed, which is a pretty major screw job for Villanova.
I was just going to add an edit.
Michigan clearly best in B1G by year end.
I just wanted the B1G tourney this year. Anything beyond this is gravy.
is furious at the #8.
Better than expected seeds:
Purdue, Minnesota (perhaps 2 slots), Michigan State, Northwestern. maybe Maryland (6-1/2 seed?)
Worse than expected:
Wisconsin, Michigan
My Wisconsin family is LIVID too.
They swept Minnesota head to head, had a better Big Ten regular season record, and went farther in the tournament. Minnesota is ranked 3 spots higher.
They beat Maryland the only time they played, had the same Big Ten record and went father in the tournament by 2 rounds. Maryland is ranked 2 spots higher.
What the fuck.
was 23rd before our game was updated in Kenpom so maybe that's what Brian pulled. After our game was updated we moved ahead of Ok St to 21st and bumped them down to 24th.
So looking at our region, let's assume we get beyond Louisville somehow. Sweet Sixteen would be against a depleted but still talented Oregon team that KenPom doesn't like very much. Kansas is wildly inconsistent and rarely plays to their talent it seems. Also over there is Purdue and an Iowa State team I think is really hot and playing well.
We could make it out of there... if we beat Louisville, which I'm not sure we can.
Our pod looks to be the toughest part of the region, relative to seeding. Iowa State is a tough 5 seed but between them, Purdue and Kansas, there isn't anyone that is super scary that will come out of that side of the bracket compared to other regions.
Location (read: attendance) was clearly a huge factor this year with 3 Big 12 teams, 3 Big ten teams plus Louisville and Creighton in our region.
Kenpom is not the end all as shown by our rankings in Dec Jan when we played like shit and favored by 9 and 10 vs teams way below us in Kenpom only to lose.
Looking at Ok State scores the past month they look like we did in Nov/Dec - score a lot, don't play a lick of defense. Now we play defense, so I'll take that matchup - 2 good offenses, 1 team doesn't give a damn about defense. We are the other team.
We're 25 in the RPI
and vegas and any other model can't predict teams to make all their three pointers like they did for a stretch of 6-8 games there. We didn't play as bas as the optics.
The data saw this run coming all along.
I'm surprised Louisville is a #2, but Im also surprised Oregon is not a #2. (Maybe the latter due to the injury?). So, I think it's a wash / slight benefit.
Committee takes into account injuries; Oregon suffered a big one.
But not for Minnesota, apparently. Their SG is out for the year and yet they're somehow a 5 seed.
So did a very thin Minnesota team
They only played 6 against us, that doesn't bode well in the big dance.
and with some Walton magic, make the final four. Carolina, Duke, Kentucky all would be tougher for us. Not sure about Nova or Gonzaga.
right now we are the team they don't want to play. Not the other way around!
Cards Chronicle is not pleased about the potential of playing us, FWIW.
March 13th, 2017 at 11:40 AM ^
They're guaranteed a team that is underseeded vs most power rating rankings. And even those might underestimate how well both OSU and Michigan have played over the last 6+ weeks. I'd be perturbed if I were them too.
...we're the ones who knock?
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