[Paul Sherman]

Michigan 69, Maryland 62 Comment Count

Alex Cook March 3rd, 2019 at 7:48 PM

As the regular season winds down, Michigan kept its chances at a conference title alive with a gritty road win at Maryland. The Wolverines were without Charles Matthews for the second straight game, but Zavier Simpson had a fantastic performance on both ends of the floor, and Ignas Brazdeikis was the aggressive scorer Michigan needed him to be (he finished with an efficient, game-high 21 points). It was an unusual game for Michigan — both teams shot 6-20 from three and rebounded over a third of their misses — and in the end, the Wolverines recorded one of their most impressive wins of the season.

It took Michigan a few possessions to get on the scoreboard, and Maryland started the game with two threes. Iggy seemed to relish the physical style of the game and attacked the Terrapin defense: before the first TV timeout, he’d drawn a foul on Jalen Smith on an offensive rebound, drawn a shooting foul on Bruno Fernando, drove on Darryl Morsell to draw a foul, and grabbed an offensive rebound. A short while later, he bullied Aaron Wiggins for another foul (and two more points). Later in the half, Iggy made the only Michigan three before the break, a contested shot from the corner. The first half was tight, tense, and low-scoring — and Michigan’s star freshman confronted Maryland’s size, strength, and athleticism head-on.

The ball screen game with Simpson and Teske was Michigan’s main source of offense, especially in the first half. Simpson had six points at halftime, including two hook shots over Fernando — one came late in the shot clock, the other broke a short Maryland run. He also had six assists, most of which went to the rolling big man; Michigan’s shooters, particularly Teske and Isaiah Livers, got open looks, but missed. Michigan stole some minutes with Colin Castleton when Fernando went to the bench (Smith was already there, as he picked up two early fouls), and he fared well. Castleton did spell Teske for a couple high-leverage minutes in the second half and Fernando didn’t score on him.

Fernando, who certainly looks like he will be heading to the NBA after this season, was mostly neutralized by Teske. He scored 12 points on 14 shooting possessions, and had 3 turnovers to one assist; he also had 10 rebounds (4 offensive) and 6 blocks, several of which came as the help defender on Michigan floaters around the basket. Fernando was an imposing presence at the rim, but Teske was able exploit his lack of mobility to get open jumpers. Fortunately for Maryland, Teske kept on missing: his first seven mid-range or three-point shots were off the mark, some badly, but — like in the first matchup — he did knock down a big three late in the game, this one out of the under-four timeout.

[Sherman]

Simpson’s stellar first half ended with him slicing through the defense to sneak a layup past Fernando before the buzzer and give Michigan a four-point lead; his second half started with two fouls on Maryland’s first three possessions (the second of which came as Anthony Cowan caught the ball 30 feet from the basket), and he was banished to the bench for seven and a half minutes. Michigan survived with him out of the game — they led by five when he exited and trailed by two when he returned — but struggled offensively. Neither Eli Brooks nor David DeJulius (who played a combined 16 minutes) scored. As Smith made his mark on the game putting back Terrapin misses and Maryland pulled back into the lead, Michigan’s offense labored for good looks.

Michigan had a few empty possessions after Simpson returned, but then the Wolverines went on a run. Isaiah Livers hit a corner three out of a Poole - Teske ball screen; Simpson got a step on Aaron Wiggins and made a hook layup (which elicited a timeout from Mark Turgeon); Poole got a layup out in transition — and Michigan led by five. After two missed jumpers by Poole, Iggy nailed a wing three; on the next possession, Iggy airballed a wide open corner three, but Teske got to the floor, Livers came up with the loose ball, and Simpson made yet another hook shot to beat the shot clock and push Michigan’s lead to eight ahead of the under-four timeout.

Down the stretch, Maryland’s offense finally woke up. Aaron Wiggins got an open look and hit a three, Cowan — who had a rough game — made a tough shot over Simpson, and then he hit a deep spot-up three. Michigan was able to stay a step ahead though, and the two teams traded buckets down the stretch after had mostly been a defensive battle. Teske made a pick and pop three; Simpson blew by Eric Ayala for a layup; Simpson found Iggy on a nice cut for a layup; the dagger came when Michigan — after passing up open looks in an obvious effort to burn clock — was bailed out by a contested Livers three to beat the buzzer. Steady free throw shooting sealed the win.

Without Matthews, Michigan’s new starting lineup stepped up — and all five finished with double digit points. Simpson outplayed Cowan by a wide margin and would have had more than his 10 assists with better shooting from his teammates. Iggy matched Maryland’s toughness, drew fouls, made a couple threes, and responded to heckling from the Terrapin fans with a 21-point performance. Livers was cold for a while, but warmed up in the second half; Poole had a tough time with Fernando around the rim, but made a few nice plays. Teske made Fernando work hard (and miss frequently) in the post, got a couple of easy buckets, and spaced the floor, even if he was missing. Until Matthews returns, Michigan’s lack of depth will only be magnified, but the remaining members of the Wolverine core were good enough to get a late-season road win over a ranked team.

[Box score after the JUMP]

Comments

RobM_24

March 3rd, 2019 at 8:33 PM ^

So if Purdue and Michigan are tied at end of the season, does Michigan win outright bc of the head to head win, or is it a co-champ situation?

bklein09

March 3rd, 2019 at 9:16 PM ^

I hope you’re right. But I think the committee might stick us with a 3 if we lose the next two. They claim that conference and conference standings don’t matter, but if we finish third and then lose out early in Chicago they may try to slot MSU and Purdue ahead of us. 

Of course, a lot will depend on what other teams do as well. Who wins the BTT? What if UNC wins the ACCT? How does the SEC seeding shake out with Tennessee and Kentucky?

TrueBlue2003

March 3rd, 2019 at 9:34 PM ^

Michigan definitely could drop to a 3 if they lose their next two and teams lurking on the 3 line like Houston, Texas Tech go on runs to win their conference titles.

But if Michigan wins their quarter final BTT game, that'll be almost certainly be enough to stay on the two line.

Beat MSU and go to the BTT finals and they're likely a one seed.

cletus318

March 3rd, 2019 at 9:29 PM ^

Bracket Matrix had Michigan as the last 2 seed coming into today. Coincidentally enough, every individual bracket has us as a 2 or a 3. I'd say this game solidified a 3 seed as the floor and keeps alive some faint hope to get to the one line. There's still some potential depending on how the MSU game and BTT go for Michigan to get leapfrogged by some teams behind it such as a surging LSU squad or even Purdue if it wins both the regular season and tournament titles.

cletus318

March 3rd, 2019 at 11:48 PM ^

Even money seems overly optimistic given that Michigan needs to pass three other teams even if it wins out through the BTT. Gonzaga is going to steamroll its conference tournament to a 1 seed, and UVA hasn't lost to a team not named Duke all year. That's almost certainly 2 spot gone right there. Unless Zion shuts it down, Duke probably gets a one seed as well. That would still leave Michigan battling it out for the last one seed with Kentucky, Tennessee and UNC, all of which will have their own opportunities to win a conference tournament and all of which are at present ahead of Michigan in NET. It's true that a one seed remains a possibility, but a ton outside of Michigan's control has to go right.

TrueBlue2003

March 4th, 2019 at 1:19 AM ^

I agree that there's probably only one spot up for grabs.  Two if Zion doesn't come back, but I'm even assuming he does come back.

Given M wins over MSU, I'm not that worried about UNC given their minefields remaining and the head-to-head domination between the teams earlier in the year.

And after todays win, Michigan is probably already in a dead heat with the two SEC schools, Michigan is better than both of them, and those teams each have multiple losable games remaining.  Tennessee hosts Miss St and then plays at a Auburn. Torvik gives them only 39% chance to win both of those.  UK has at Ole Miss and Florida which is 50/50 that they drop one.

Hence Michigan would be expected to be in that four spot going into the conference tournaments with a win over MSU.  And yes, they'd have to hold off the field and it's likely one of Tennessee or UK wins the SEC tourney so maybe they wouldn't quite be even money vs the field but they have the highest individual likelihood amongst those four teams.

northernmich

March 3rd, 2019 at 9:03 PM ^

Teske couldn’t shoot a lick today, but man that 3 he hit was clutch. I get so excited when Castleton comes in, he is a star in the making. That dunk he had was so patient and awesome. They responded so well to the 6-0 run to start the game too, Saturday night will be fun.

Bob_Timberlake

March 3rd, 2019 at 9:14 PM ^

So the crowd was calling Iggy ugly, until Turgeon had the PA announcer tell them to chill. Then, they just booed him. Pretty sure all this just pumped Iggy up. Thanks, fans.

Harlans Haze

March 4th, 2019 at 9:32 AM ^

You're making two incorrect assumptions about maryland fans, one, that they are capable of trying harder and, two, that they would actually feel shame. What's most surprising is that they actually heeded Turgeon's appeal to stop the chant. That actually showed some class. It's too bad their fans aren't as creative as some other fan bases, because xfinity center is a great atmosphere and their student section has the potential to be one of the best.

Richard75

March 3rd, 2019 at 9:16 PM ^

Since M can lose no more than 3 more games, it will finish the season with its fewest losses since Fab Five year 2 (92-93). Pretty impressive

Yooper

March 3rd, 2019 at 9:35 PM ^

Great win. 

Free throw shooting was the difference. It’s now a strength not a weakness. Who would have thought?

Great point guard + good free throw shooting are both keys to success in the tournament when your shooting is inconsistent 

Go Blue 80

March 3rd, 2019 at 9:46 PM ^

I'm not saying we're better without Matthews by any means, but sometimes it seems the offense flows better with Livers in Matthews spot.  Matthews is a ball stopper on offense, while Livers is our best 3 point shooter and opens up more space for X and Teske to run pick and roll.

TrueBlue2003

March 3rd, 2019 at 10:09 PM ^

Completely agree. The offense is definitely better with Livers in for him . That's why Michigan has had two of their best offensive games of the season with Matthews out by raw and opponent adjusted efficiency (and that's despite missing a ton of open threes today!).  His shaky three point shooting doesn't spread the floor and his drives to spin move to signature fade away are just bad offense.  As you say, he's a ball stopper.

And it's just so obvious - as it has been all year - that Livers needs to be playing more than the twenty minutes he was averaging before Matthews went out.  He's probably the best spot up shooter on the team, he's the teams most versatile defender, and he knows his role and his limitations and doesn't try to do too much.

Swapping Livers for Matthews, the offense all runs through Simpson, Poole and Iggy as it should, and Livers ability to stretch the floor and hit threes allows more room for those three to operate along with Teske on the pick and roll.

I don't think Matthews should be benched or anything, he's a very important piece.  There are plenty of minutes to go around.  But the rotation should be more like 30 minutes each for Poole, Matthews, Iggy and Livers with Matthews getting a little less time when there are two low usage wings for Poole and Iggy to guard (like against MSU with Henry and McQuaid where Matthews defense doesn't even get tested) and Matthews getting a little more time when there's a high usage wing player like a Langford from IU that you want Matthews to shut down.

northernmich

March 3rd, 2019 at 10:20 PM ^

This is completely true. Our ceiling is much higher with Livers playing a bigger role on this team. These last two games have been fun to watch. The offense looks good. Yeah we missed some open looks but they were in rhythm and not forced fade away, turn around jumpers or head down drives to the basket (iggy did have one bad one I do recall). Give this starting group with some Castleton and DDJ sprinkled in (maybe some Johns too) and we beat Sparty in EL and I’ll believe this is Final Four team.

stephenrjking

March 3rd, 2019 at 10:22 PM ^

Matthews has been decent at 3s this year; the problem is he almost never takes them. 

With Livers now fully liberated from the 5 by Castleton's emergence, I wonder if there is an opening to park Matthews at the 2 when Poole needs rest, obviating the need to kludge through with Brooks or DDJ. Kinda depends on how much that was happening before, I guess--Beilein has tried to avoid him at the 5 lately anyway. 

bronxblue

March 3rd, 2019 at 10:29 PM ^

Matthews gives you that defensive force at the wings you don't have from anyone else, but I agree the offense is a bit more fluid with him not a large portion of the offense.  I did look at Matthews's last 5 games before the MSU one (where he got hurt), and he was actually on a roll.  Solid offensive rating, decent shooting, good help rebounder, etc.  He actually seemed to be breaking out of that mid-season slump and rounding into form.  Hopefully he can return in the tournament to give them a lift.

TrueBlue2003

March 4th, 2019 at 1:34 AM ^

He did have three good games in a row.  That second half against Wisconsin was stellar.

But in his last two games he was terrible: 3-11 against Minnesota and 1-8 against MSU.

His offense, and particularly that mid-range jumper, is like an old lady hitting up the slot machines every week.  It's a losing proposition in the long run, and the odds are against, but they go on good streaks often enough to keep them coming back for more and more.

ak47

March 3rd, 2019 at 10:25 PM ^

It depends on what we need. Against top defenses that have switched on us our offense has completely bogged down and having Matthews willing to create his own shot has been crucial. If livers isn’t getting his shot created he is a zero on offense so in some games he can get completely taken even with a poor defender on him. He provides fantastic flexibility but I think people on this site don’t really appreciate how much higher the ceiling of this team is with good Matthews 

bronxblue

March 3rd, 2019 at 10:35 PM ^

I don't disagree, but that's always been the balancing act with Matthews.  He's not MAAR in his ability to generate offense off the dribble (his handle's not quite as good, nor his FT shooting), so he can sometimes bounce the air out of the ball and bog down your offense if he tries to shoot 17-foot jumpers all day.  At the same time, as you noted, he's the guy who can make said 17-footers when the offense is bogged down late in the shot clock, especially if Poole or Iggy (or both) are off their games.  And he's probably the most dynamic defender on the team, which is saying something for a squad featuring Simpson and Teske.

I really like Jordan Poole and think he can be a really good player at Michigan, but he's definitely struggled at times this year offensively as the load has increased.  When Matthews comes back, I'd like to see him split time with Poole and see what they can do with Livers at the 3.  That's a lineup that gives you some favorable matchups against teams without giving up a ton of shooting, plus it means you can run Poole or Matthews out there as your lead offensive weapon when guys like Simpson and Iggy get breathers, which is going to be crucial for them because they don't have even an average bench and, as we saw today, guys like Castleton and DDJ aren't quite ready to carry significant offensive loads yet.

Reggie Dunlop

March 4th, 2019 at 1:19 PM ^

I disagree with the higher ceiling. Our offense is better when a guy who can't really create isn't being asked to create. It's better when the ball handlers are handling the ball and finding the open shooters.

Matthews would make us better if he'd be more like Livers on offense. Sure, there have been times when he got hot and he did his individual thing and hit impossible fades and long twos, or turned the corner on an unsuspecting defender. That was great. But if those got shut down by a double team or traffic or a mishandled dribble, there was nothing else left because the offense has to stop to let Charles Matthews go find his shot.

Just my take. I'm not a basketball expert. But Michigan's offense is most dangerous when there is movement and the defense is constantly rotating and switching trying to keep up. That's how we lose defenders for wide open spot up threes. That's how we find Bruno Fernando overplaying the Jon Teske pick and pop and Zavier Simpson gets a free layup in crunch time. That's the ceiling of this offense - not give the ball to one guy and watch him shoot a 15-foot fadeaway. That's stagnant and easily defended, regardless of whether it goes in.

Matthews is our best defender. So he offsets a lesser offense with a better defense. I call it a wash. But I wholeheartedly disagree that Matthews makes us better offensively.

outsidethebox

March 4th, 2019 at 9:03 AM ^

 I believe y'all are missing the major difference-making point between these players. With Livers and Poole both on the floor the defense has to account for two significant deep threats. This opens the driving and passing lanes for Simpson and Brazdeikis. If it were Brazdeikis who was out the same point  would apply-to Matthews benefit. Good offense is dependent upon good spacing-and in today's game you had better have multiple deep threats on the floor or you're going to have efficiency problems. 

Poole continues to be the object of fan criticism-which, frankly, is deeply flawed. For the opposition, Poole is the clear "enemy #1". I give you Livers' huge three at the end as "exhibit A". Poole is about 10 feet away from Livers-35 feet away from the basket and is being denied the ball not only by his defender but by a second defender who is hedging in his direction-which gives Livers the window to drain that three. This is what Poole has to contend with every possession...why Livers being on the floor is so important...why his teammates have to step up...the opposition is betting that the other four cannot beat them when he is the only clear deep threat.

The poise and execution with which Michigan closed out this game was a thing of beauty...except for them allowing Maryland to roll the ball to damn near half-court on the inbounds-good grief...make them pick it up and start the clock!!!