For the second straight year, we get B1G Championship Game Fee Fi Foe Film. Rejoice!! And unlike last year, the offense portion of B1G Championship Game FFFF does not have to be censored for children. That's because our Michigan Wolverines draw the Purdue Boilermakers and head coach Jeff Brohm, a coach long known for his offenses, first at Western Kentucky and now at Purdue. They have one of the B1G's top WRs and TEs, as well as a veteran QB with multiple years of starting experience. Nothing to scoff at this year.

The Film: Picking a game for B1G West opponents is easy thanks to Bert Bielema and his Walking Dollar Store Clone of Michigan known as the Illinois Fighting Illini. It's doubly easy considering that Purdue and Illinois played rather recently, the most recent game that the Boilermakers played against an opponent with a pulse (sorry Indiana and Northwestern). Checking both the recency and comparable boxes, the Illinois game was the no-doubt pick, but I also integrated some tape from the week one Purdue-PSU battle, because that's the other time Purdue has played a team that is remotely in Michigan's ballpark. 

Personnel: Click for big or here for PDF: 

Purdue has two-year starting QB Aidan O'Connell at the helm for what will be his final game in the B1G. The sixth-year(!) QB is one of the rare players on either team who was on the roster for the last meeting between these two teams, way back in 2017 when Wilton Speight's Michigan career was ended when his neck got crunched on that fateful afternoon in the hot Indiana sun. O'Connell was a walk-on freshman that season and slowly worked his way up the depth chart, passing Jack Plummer for the starting QB role last season and feeling comfortable in Jeff Brohm's pass-happy system. He was named 2nd Team All-B1G a year ago and was re-upped for that honor this season by the coaches. In a league bereft of even semi-competent QBs, O'Connell is a darling by comparison, even if his overall level of play is a bit below star-caliber in my book. 

The RB spot has also been seized by a walk-on, one Devin Mockobee. A 2* in-state recruit who was also a track athlete in HS, Mockobee walked on last season and after an injury to King Doerue opened the door back in the early months of this campaign, Mockobee eventually weaseled his way to the top of the depth chart. Mockobee did not even get a carry in the first game against PSU but by mid-October, he was rushing 30 times for 178 yards against Nebraska. Mockobee also plays a role in the receiving game as well- he may not have elite traits, but I came away from my viewing of Mockobee thoroughly impressed and had him bordering on star status. Dylan Downing and CMU transfer Kobe Lewis round out this positional group as depth options, with Lewis getting carries as a burlier short-yardage back. 

At WR Purdue has seen the explosion of Iowa transfer Charlie Jones. Freed from the shackles of Brian Ferentz and Spencer Petras, Jones led the B1G in receiving yards in the regular season, scoring the same number of receiving TDs as Marvin Harrison Jr.(!). He's not a particularly remarkable player size-wise (6'0", 188 lbs.), but Jones knows how to run routes and get open, and the production speaks for itself. There's a massive drop-off down to the #2 WR (the 2nd-leading receiver is a TE) who is TJ Sheffield, a solid option but not particularly exciting. After Sheffield, there's another gap down to a mix of Mershawn Rice, Tyrone Tracy Jr. (also an Iowa transfer), and Deion Burks, who all have between 15 and 26 catches on the season. Aaron Sowinski doesn't have nearly as many catches but is now the nominal starter in the slot. This positional group is really Jones, (gap), Sheffield, (another gap), everyone else. 

Purdue likes to use its TEs and they have a good one in Payne Durham. We gave him the half-star because his blocking is nothing particularly great but his receiving ability is high-end and a crucial part of what makes the Purdue offense go. Durham was named 2nd team All-B1G and sat second in TE receiving yards in the conference behind only Sam LaPorta of Iowa. The second TE, who comes on in 12 personnel looks, is Paul Piferi. He's mostly just a guy. The third TE is Drew Biber, but he has just one catch and 17 total snaps this season. 

The offensive line for Purdue is adequate to facilitate a passing game, but not great overall. The interior OL is stronger than the tackles, with LG Spencer Holstege impressing me the most against Illinois. He was the closest OL to getting a star but it was a unit-wide decision not to give any out. Marcus Mbow rotates some with Sione Finau at RG, which is a bit confusing because Mbow is definitely better- Finau received a cyan. He also plays when Purdue goes with 6 OL from time to time. The center was Gus Hartwig, who was PFF's best-graded Purdue OL, but unfortunately he sustained an injury against Northwestern and has been ruled out for the season. The replacement is Josh Kaltenberger. I don't have much to say about him, as he has only scant snaps both on the season (one real game to go off of against Indiana) and in his career. The tackles are Mahamane Moussa on the left side and Eric Miller on the right. Moussa was fine, while Miller is the weak-point of the starting five and received the cyan. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: We like to pass]

Spread, pro-style, or hybrid: Purdue is a fully spread offense operating almost exclusively out of the shotgun. They love to spread the receivers out and give the QB a lot of options: 

The other thing about Purdue is they are pass-heavy. They run a decent amount on first down but the complexion of their playcalls skews heavily towards the pass, which should not be surprising for those who are familiar with Jeff Brohm: 

There are a number of similarities between Purdue and Ohio State, the team Michigan just played. Neither team believes they can consistently convert on the ground in 3rd & short. 

Base Set: The base set for Purdue is having four or five receivers lined up outside, with the personnel package varying substantially. This is what it looks like: 

The catch is that of those four or five receivers, it's anyone's guess what kinds of players they'll be. Typically there are always at least 3 WRs and 1 TE, but sometimes it's 3 WRs + 2 TEs and no RBs. Sometimes it's 4 WRs + 1 RB out wide. Sometimes it's 2 WRs + 2 TE and an RB in the backfield. The players lining up outside change, but that base look is used a majority of the time. 

The only other formation of note I wanted to put out there is this one: 

There are different variations of this that appear, but 2 WRs out wide, 1 TE in-line, and then 2 backs in the backfield, one of which lined up a bit in front of the QB and offset, as if to be a FB. 

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL: Purdue has one of the more balanced splits between gap and zone running schemes that we've seen this season, not really fitting into either category neatly. Zone still comprises the majority of plays I charted, tilting Purdue to the Basketball on Grass category, but they do plenty of MANBALL stuff, much more than I was expecting. I charted Power, Counter, and Down G, multiple times each, so pulling linemen is something to anticipate and be aware of. 

Hurry it up or grind it out: Purdue is in line with the average CFB team in terms of pace, hiking it with between 15 and 25 on the playclock on a lot of plays. Nothing too interesting to report that I saw against Illinois. 

Quarterback Dilithium Rating (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Aidan O'Connell is not a running QB. He has 37 total carries this season for -45 yards, meaning there's a healthy dose of sacks in there. Purdue has allowed 20 sacks this season and the vast majority of those were with O'Connell at QB, so you're looking at ~1.5 non-sack carries per week from O'Connell. Again, very little to speak of here. HOWEVER, I will note that in a huge game against Illinois (one that ultimately decided the B1G West), Jeff Brohm tossed out the option to keep the Illini off-guard. Illinois and its meaty defensive front was giving Purdue trouble running the football between the tackles, so Purdue decided to target the edge to get some rushing success, using the surprise of O'Connell's legs to get some wins. It worked: 

That play was a pitch to Mockobee, now here's one where O'Connell kept it: 

Those were two of the three instances in which Purdue called the option in this game and I'd assume they'll go with it once against Michigan because A) it's been successful and B) I anticipate them struggling in the same way on the ground between the tackles against the Wolverines. But outside of that? O'Connell is not a rushing threat in anyway, lacking speed and scrambling intuition generally speaking. We'll peg him at a 3. 

Dangerman: Today we're going with WR Charlie Jones, or as Gus Johnson calls him, "Chuck Sizzle". Jones transferred from Iowa in the offseason for obvious reasons and has fit in perfectly to Jeff Brohm's offense, becoming one of the top five receivers in the conference. His stats, 97 catches for 1,199 yards and 12 TDs, show off his status as Aidan O'Connell's top target and why he must be at the top of any Purdue scouting report. 

Jones introduced himself to the CFB world with a primetime performance in Purdue's Thursday night week one clash with Penn State, with 12 catches(!) for 153 yards. He was all over the place in that game and showed off the sort of role he'd have this season, as a crisp route-runner who is very difficult to cover. Here's his TD from that game, getting loose in the end zone: 

Jones showcased an ability to go up and get balls as well despite his modest 6'0" height. Here he goes up and plucks one out of the air: 

He was not nearly as dominant against Illinois, but still had a solid showing, 4 catches for 66 yards and a TD. Even dueling with Illinois star CB Devin Witherspoon, Jones had his wins. This one was not against Witherspoon but Quan Martin, and it is a beauty: 

Also a terrific throw from O'Connell. Jones had his most success running either out routes or crossing routes off mesh concepts. Example: 

Not flashy here, but quietly effective. Jones' ability to get himself open with consistency is why O'Connell favors him, and it makes sense. If there's one plus for Michigan, it's that Jones is not really a contested catch demon who can jump ball them like Keon Coleman, or haul in tough ones like Marvin Harrison Jr. which has been basically their only vulnerability this season in the secondary. 

HenneChart: Let's take a look at Aidan O'Connell, who I will sometimes refer to by his initials AOC (I know, I know, it's an unfortunate set of initials for distraction purposes but better than spelling out "Aidan O'Connell" every time). O'Connell is a good college QB but he is not an NFL QB, lacking the mobility, consistent accuracy, and arm strength to play at the next level or be in the conversation with guys like CJ Stroud or JJ McCarthy at the top of the league. That does not mean, however, that he is a bum, or that he isn't good. For what a team like Purdue needs to win the West and be an 8-9 win team, AOC is perfectly acceptable. 

His positive traits are best seen in comparison to his fellow B1G West QBs which I know is a low bar but it bears pointing out: O'Connell knows who to throw to, is capable of leading a solid offense and shouldering 38 attempts per game, and can get the football there pretty consistently, so long as his arm strength doesn't get in the way. There are limitations, but his body is pointed in the right direction and the ball usually lands in the vicinity of the receiver, and the coach does not grit his teeth when O'Connell throws. That is an upgrade over Gavin Wimsatt, Spencer Petras, Graham Mertz, [Insert Northwestern QB here], and Athan Kaliakmanis. Chart:  

This chart is rather illustrative for the sort of QB that O'Connell is, with one of the highest marginal scores I've recorded in two years of charting. AOC throws a lot and because his arm is what it is, not all of those are going to be pinpoint precise. He leaves a lot behind the receivers or in places that could be PBU'd. Example: 

Here's one that causes his receiver to fall over to make the catch, robbing him of YAC opportunities, which is big when it's a screen!: 

Sometimes his arm just misfires altogether, not giving his receiver a chance: 

The combination of five inaccurate balls and seven marginal ones show how O'Connell's arm is pretty wobbly and lacks NFL upside. That said, most of his throws are good. A 67% DSR is nothing to laugh about, and there were several very nice throws. Here he hits the hole shot: 

And the fade to Jones I showed in the Dangerman section deserves to be shown again from AOC's perspective: 

Pin-point perfect ball. Purdue's offense makes a living on slants/hitches/crossing routes, so most of the balls Brohm asks O'Connell to throw are not terribly high degree of difficulty balls. He's generally pretty sharp on those, routine throws like this: 

Aidan O'Connell is not the sort of QB who is going to win you a game against a very good defense. He's not a gunslinger or a Heisman candidate, he's just a steady signal-caller who gets it done most of the time. Nothing wrong with that... a bit below what I considered star-worthy for the diagram because those arm talent limitations and general dearth of mobility don't make him truly dangerous in the factual definition of the word, but he's still in my top five QBs in the conference. He doesn't showcase the meteroic highs of a Payton Thorne, but the flip side is he rarely runs as cold as Thorne either. That steady hand week-in and week-out is a key reason why Purdue is in Indianapolis for the B1G Championship Game. 

Overview 

Let's get this out of the way and state the obvious: Purdue's offense is a major step down from Ohio State's. However, there are some similarities between the two. Both teams are pass-first spread offenses with offensive lines built more for pass protection than run blocking. They both feature veteran QBs with a good feel for the offense and both teams have a Dangerman at WR. The units diverge when we get into the level of talent, where there is a massive gulf, and how good they are at executing what they want to do. Purdue lacks the blue chip talent and the ability to achieve the workman like efficiency that OSU frequently operates with. The limitations that talent places on Purdue means they most focus more on shorter throws compared to the vertical passing game of Ohio State that is enabled by Stroud's NFL arm and having explosive athletes at WR. Purdue doesn't get that luxury. 

Another difference? Tight end. Cade Stover of OSU was just a guy. Payne Durham of Purdue can play. When you scout Purdue there are really only two weapons you need to talk about, the aforementioned Jones and then Durham. So much of Purdue's offense revolves around having a checkdown option in Durham who can move the sticks and be a threat in the red zone. With 550 receiving yards and 8 TDs, Durham is one of the conference's best TEs. He scored two TDs against Illinois, both of which I clipped back when I was previewing the Illinois defense. Here he is dunking on a corner in the end zone, with a great toe-tap: 

And here he is dragging a safety into the end zone: 

Durham is a big boy and his size allows him to box out defenders and become a safety valve option for O'Connell when he faces pressure (like in the clip above) or Purdue needs to move the sticks. They targeted Durham on 4th down once against Illinois and once against PSU, with the latter being successful: 

With Durham you're less concerned about him burning down the seam as you are him posting up an undersized LB like Michael Barrett and making catch after catch for 5-8 yards a pop. Durham is not the world's best blocker and he got a half-star on our diagram as a result, but as a receiver, he's the only other player on the field for the Boilermakers (besides Jones) who requires consistent attention from Michigan's gameplan. 

Jones and Durham were the two players to receive stars but if I'd have given out a third, it would have been to RB Devin Mockobee. The unheralded walk-on wasn't just the lead back for Purdue: I felt he had legit talent. Mockobee is not given a ton of help from his offensive line (see below), so he provides an adequate ground game mostly all on his own. This run stood out to me, with Mockobee creating the first down all on his own, powering through contact: 

Mockobee is forced to bounce his runs an awful lot and though he's not a burner, he can pull some moves in space. This pops up when you see him get screen passes, as he pulls a first down out of his rear end here: 

Not great tackling from Illinois, but several nice cuts from Mockobee as well. His best game of the season came against Nebraska and I'm going to leave the YouTube highlight reel from the game below, beginning with a pair of plays that highlight a lot of what Mockobee is: 

First you see him dancing around tacklers on another screen reception, followed by a long run outside the tackles. That's where he did the vast majority of his damage against the Huskers and it was successful, 178 yards on 30 carries and 1 TD. There is some lacking athleticism, but in terms of a nose for running with the football in his hand, Mockobee has it. You can't teach natural football IQ or heart and Mockobee is chock full of those attributes. 

Now let's get into why Mockobee has to do most of his work bouncing/targeting the edge: this offensive line is not very good in run blocking. As pass blockers, they're fine. Not incredible, and Purdue's quick-strike passing offense is a heavy weight off their shoulders, but the traditional numbers (sacks allowed) and advanced numbers (sack rate/passing down sack rate) both put the Boilermakers in the upper third to quarter of CFB teams in protecting the QB. But creating running lanes? Oof. Football Outsiders has Purdue 98th in average line yards, 122nd in standard downs line yards, 85th in passing down line yards, and 74th in power success rate. They cannot move anyone when it comes time to run the ball. 

Against Illinois' tough defensive front, this mostly was the case. There were actually a few drives where Purdue did better than I was expecting getting push from the OL, but for the most part, not much was there on the ground between the tackles. Runs like this were pretty common: 

Stretch, no push. The lack of consistent push is why Mockobee is so ready to bounce at a moment's notice, often salvaging a few yards on the run as a result: 

That's a four yard gain on a run where the available line yards between the tackles was essentially zero. If push comes from anywhere on the line, it will probably be from LG Spencer Holstege: 

There it's he and the LT Mahamane Moussa plowing a lane for Mockabee on what was the best OL play of the game for the Boilermakers.

In pass protection, again, they're fine. But if there is a weak spot, RT Eric Miller would be it for my money. PSU's Chop Robinson got around him for a game-ending pressure in the opener: 

Let's finish this up by getting to the other receivers. There's not a ton to talk about here in the way of major impact players, but the one who does deserve mention outright is TJ Sheffield. An outside receiver, he's nearly identical to Charlie Jones in terms of size. Sheffield is the recipient of a number of screens and slants, in addition to a couple jet sweeps (Purdue's offense features loads of pre-snap motion overall), but my favorite clip of him is this move to toast the DB and get open for a sizable gain against Illinois: 

Sheffield is not a player who warrants top-of-the-scouting report attention, but he's worthy of a shoutout and now he's received it. 

What does this mean for Michigan?

Purdue is a decent offense because it is generally well coordinated, has a solid QB, and a couple good weapons to his disposal. It is not a great offense because it lacks premium talent across the field and has no semblance of a running game outside of whatever Devin Mockobee is able to produce on his own. We saw this against Penn State, as Purdue had the ball up three points *twice* in the fourth quarter with under seven minutes to go and were unable to consistently run the football and grind down the clock. It was such a problem that they didn't even bother most of the time, passing in many of those situations, just like they do in 3rd & 4th down situations. This is an offense built entirely around the pass, and the gap between it and Ohio State comes down to having a walk-on QB and receivers who were well outside the top 500 of the composite. Brohm and his crew should be praised for their player development, but recruiting is the Achilles heel. They don't have the sorts of players needed to blow the top off a defense or do something truly dynamic. 

As I look towards the B1G Championship Game clash with Michigan, I struggle to see a way in which Purdue is going to be able to generate enough offense (and offensive points) to win this football game. The running game will have some weird stuff ready for a big game (RPS wins to target the perimeter), but on a down-to-down basis it will likely be completely muzzled, as it was against Illinois and Penn State. Purdue will then be leaning on the pass. Michigan can honestly afford to bracket Charlie Jones if they wanted to- there aren't enough other weapons. Coming up with a plan to deal with Durham is the other main task for Jesse Minter, but this is a secondary that just slowed down the mighty OSU passing attack for the second straight year. Against a vastly diminished Purdue outfit, I don't see a ton of reason for concern, even if Brohm's smartly schemed and well-run offense will move the ball through the air from time to time.