Attrition Watch: August, 2013 Edition
I keep mentioning Michigan's disastrous 2010 class and how Michigan's attrition has slowed considerably since Brady Hoke was made head coach, so I thought I'd lay that out in pixels.
It'll be interesting to see what happens over the next few years—Hoke's attrition rate will go up as certain guys find themselves buried on the depth chart and his classes have more time to pick up career-ending injuries, but so far so good.
Starter-level contributors are in italics.
[UPDATE: I corrected some errors. Hopkins left football, Teric Jones was injured, Hayes was an RR recruit, italicized Raymon Taylor.]
2009
This was a Rodriguez class, his first full one. Only redshirt seniors are still around from it.
Jeremy Gallon, Justin Turner, Taylor Lewan
Enrolled: Jeremy Gallon, Taylor Lewan, Quinton Washington, Michael Schofield, Cam Gordon, Fitz Toussaint, Mike Jones, Thomas Gordon, Brendan Gibbons
Played Out Eligibility: Will Campbell, Craig Roh, Denard Robinson, Vincent Smith, Brandin Hawthorne.
Transferred for PT (3): Vlad Emilien, Je'Ron Stokes, Isaiah Bell
Academics/Not Being Nice (3): Justin Turner, Tate Forcier, Adrian Witty
Injury (1): Teric Jones
Left Football: N/A
This is actually a high-quality outfit with 17 of 24 kids completing their eligibility or about to do so. Michigan got ten starter-level contributors with the prospect of adding an eleventh in Cam Gordon this year, and there should be four to six NFL draft picks out of this group when it's all said and done.
The biggest bummers here are Justin Turner's inability to scale depth charts that were below sea level for most of his time here, and Tate Forcier's spectacular flameout. That's not too bad for a large class.
2010
All Rodriguez, during his under fire period.
Dorsey, Gardner, Vinopal
Enrolled (9): Richard Ash, Courtney Avery, Jibreel Black, Drew Dileo, Devin Gardner, Jordan Paskorz, Jake Ryan, Jeremy Jackson, Will Hagerup(?)
Transferred for PT (6): Ricardo Miller, Cullen Christian, Marvin Robinson, Carvin Johnson, Jerald Robinson, Ray Vinopal
Academics/Not Being Nice (5): Demar Dorsey, Antonio Kinard, Austin White, Davion Rogers, Conelius Jones
Injury (3): Terry Talbott, Terrance Talbott, Christian Pace
Left Football (3): Ken Wilkins, DJ Williamson, Stephen Hopkins
The disaster class. Four kids never showed up on campus because of academic issues—which is four more than Hoke has had in two and a half recruiting classes. A fifth, Austin White, was immediately a problem child and didn't make it to fall after enrolling early. While Rodriguez can't be faulted for losing the Talbotts or Christian Pace, he can be faulted for making Pace the only(!) offensive lineman in this class.
Michigan also brought in an assortment of guys who busted almost immediately. Cullen Christian was out the door after one year, as was Ray Vinopal. DJ Williamson quit to go run track at Akron. Ricardo Miller hung on a little longer but was moved to tight end quickly, which was pretty much the death knell.
Finally, hanging over this class is the bizarre specter of guys who were getting playing time but left anyway: Christian, Vinopal, Johnson, and Hopkins were all seeing snaps—though Hopkins did seem to lose his job after moving to fullback—early, and then left.
Meanwhile the few guys who are still around are Jake Ryan, Devin Gardner, Jibreel Black, and some role players. Three starters out of 27 players, and 8 or 9 guys who are even here right now, depending on how you want to classify Hagerup.
2011
Frank Clark 50 pounds ago, Chris Barnett, Tony Posada
This was the hybrid RR/Hoke class in which Hoke found himself with three weeks to pile ten guys in. Late Hoke pickups are denoted with H.
Enrolled (13): Justice Hayes, Brennen Beyer, Raymon Taylor(H), Chris Bryant*, Blake Countess, Delonte Hollowell, Frank Clark(H), Thomas Rawls(H), Desmond Morgan, Russell Bellomy(H), Keith Heitzman (H), Jack Miller, Matt Wile(H)
*[Bryant actually committed after Hoke was hired but had been favoring Michigan so long that Rodriguez deserves the credit there.]
Transferred for PT (1): Tamani Carter(H)
Academics/Not Being Nice (2): Chris Barnett(H), Kellen Jones
Injury (1): Antonio Poole(H)
Left Football (3): Chris Rock (basically: is walk-on at OSU now), Greg Brown, Tony Posada.
Beset on all sides, Rodriguez struggled again in 2011. He locked down Brennen Beyer and Blake Countess and found an excellent sleeper in Desmond Morgan, but that's about it. He recruited three guys who didn't make it through year one at Michigan—Posada in particular showed up for a cup of coffee only—and missed out on Lawrence Thomas, DeAnthony Arnett, and Anthony Zettel in-state. He did put Michigan in a good spot for Chris Bryant, who technically committed after Hoke was hired.
By the time Hoke came in he had ten spots to fill in three weeks and he was swinging wildly. He found some hits: Wile, Clark, looking like Taylor and Heitzman. He also brought in Chris Barnett, a tight end who'd had more high schools than years in high school. He immediately flamed out and took Kellen Jones with him; Jones would later flame out at Oklahoma as well. Minnesota decommit Tamani Carter also couldn't hack it quickly and departed; Antonio Poole was hewed down by injury.
13 of the 20 guys enter their true junior or redshirt sophomore seasons, and while there's significant attrition already almost all of it can be attributed to Rodriguez recruiting some guys who saw the (depressed) talent level at Michigan and said "noooope" and Hoke having to cram ten guys in his recruiting class in three weeks time.
2012
Redshirt freshmen and sophomores.
Enrolled: 24 of the 25 guys have made it to the beginning of year two.
Injury(1): Kaleb Ringer.
Hey look, everyone qualified and nobody was so patently out of their depth that they transferred out after one year.
I am filing Ringer as an injury issue, since I have it that he underwent serious knee surgery that robbed him of his athleticism. He chose to stick it out at a lower level instead of retire.
2013
All are qualified and enrolled. None have committed to the University of Awful Rap.
August 14th, 2013 at 12:27 PM ^
Do you mean "Turner's inability to keep up with Rodriguez on the stairclimber?"
August 14th, 2013 at 6:01 PM ^
Justin Turner and Jerald Robinson are both planning to play at DII Walsh University, in North Canton Ohio. Don't know/can't say anything about any pending issues, academic or otherwise.
Walsh's new coach is Ted Karras, nephew of Lions' great (and Webster Dad) Alex Karras
August 14th, 2013 at 7:59 PM ^
The horse slayer.
August 14th, 2013 at 12:32 PM ^
Wow. When you put the names/reasons on paper (in this case on the internetz) it really stands out.
August 14th, 2013 at 12:38 PM ^
But wouldn't Raymon Taylor be counted as a starter too? He started 12 games last year; but I might not be properly interpreting the italics.
August 14th, 2013 at 12:38 PM ^
This is pretty amazing. Notably, RR recruited a decent class in 2009 that produced some fantastic players. And there were a couple of the classic "sleepers" in the 2010 class that are the types of guys he supposedly wanted to recruit (which is interesting, since Michigan doesn't have to go after sleepers). But overall the 2010 class, recruited on the back of the promising/disappointing 2009 season that should have been building momentum, was a total and complete disaster.
And we're still suffering from it.
Not that anybody thinks this way anymore, but I know I had some lingering thoughts about what would've happened if Michigan hadn't melted down so completely at the end of 2010 and RR had been able to shoehorn a quality DC to accompany the offense. The results from his last two classes pretty much answers that question in the negative; things would be very bad.
This helps me contextualize the struggles from last season and any struggles this season--Hoke and co really did start with an empty cupboard. Amazing how well we've done with that.
August 14th, 2013 at 1:20 PM ^
I always thought Rodriguez's biggest problem was his inability to retain players. When you're a head coach with a multi-million dollar contract, your job is to convince recalcitrant kids to get with the program rather than running them off. Sure, some kids are just jerks, but Rodriguez pushed way too many out for that to be the problem--unless he sucked at evaluating character.
August 14th, 2013 at 2:06 PM ^
was the baffling selection of players he brought in. Look at the lack of offensive and defensive linemen that put us in a hole when Hoke took over. Also, the completely undersized linebackers for playing in the Big Ten. Finally, his unwillingness to spend much effort recruiting Michigan and Ohio was a huge mistake. It led to MSU bringing in a lot of talent that we would have at least gotten a good share of under Carr or Hoke, not to mention Ohio having free reign of all the best players down there.
August 14th, 2013 at 4:12 PM ^
It's funny you say that. I was just thinking about that the other day relative to the 2015 class when Campbell committed. I'm not saying Michigan should have or should not have offered him--I only follow recruiting on this site and rarely watch the highlight tapes, but Michigan apparently getting ALL THE FIVE STARS does leave really good local kids for MSU, PSU, and uh Northwestern.
August 15th, 2013 at 12:46 AM ^
August 14th, 2013 at 2:37 PM ^
August 14th, 2013 at 2:51 PM ^
I still bitching because RR either couldn't or didn't try to retain Ryan Mallett. Either way it is his fault Steven Threat was his best option at QB.
August 14th, 2013 at 2:57 PM ^
Ah, no.
August 14th, 2013 at 2:57 PM ^
Mallett was, apparently, a problem from the moment he stepped on campus. He was a cancer on the team and seemed to be a good departure threat even if Carr had never left; I don't think we can hold his departure against RR that much. Given that Rodriguez brought in a Manziel-type talent in Forcier and a transcendant player in Denard the next season, his handling of the QB situation was actually pretty good relative to the rest of the roster.
August 15th, 2013 at 9:26 AM ^
Just a slight correction: he brought them in the same season. Forcier started their freshman season because he already had coaching. Denard took over as a sophomore once he got some coaching.
August 14th, 2013 at 12:39 PM ^
August 14th, 2013 at 12:42 PM ^
According to rivals, Countess committed in December of 2010.
August 14th, 2013 at 12:48 PM ^
...tenure, but Mattison had to seal the deal after the coaching change. See this WolverineNation piece by Chantel. Mattison's Ravens DC stint clearly made a difference to Good Counsel's Countess.
In the late winter of 2011, newly hired Michigan defensive coordinator Greg Mattison sat in the Countess' home in Owings Mills, Md.Future Michigan cornerback Blake Countess and his father, Wendell, were worried Blake would be overlooked by Mattison and Michigan coach Brady Hoke once he got to Ann Arbor. Because of that fear, Blake already had taken an official visit to Penn State.
"My dad asked, 'Is my child going to get an equal shot?' Because I was committed to Michigan, but I wasn't Hoke's commitment, I was [Rich Rodriguez's] commitment," Blake said. "But Mattison made it very clear that he would play the best player, and that he needed players who would play to the expectation of the position.
August 14th, 2013 at 1:04 PM ^
Thank you. Now I don't feel so bad.
August 14th, 2013 at 1:45 PM ^
As I recall, Mattison stopped there on the way to Ann Arbor immediately after accepting the job. If the family needed assurance that Countess was wanted, that must have helped.
August 14th, 2013 at 12:40 PM ^
Bare cupboard! Bare cupboard!
August 14th, 2013 at 12:42 PM ^
...he's now at UMass as a graduate student. He earned his Michigan degree this past spring. Perhaps a subcategory of transferred for playing time? Same thing Blake McLimans has done with his final year of MBB eligibility (now enrolled as a grad student at Miami (NTM)). Only difference is that Miller wasn't redshirted and graduated in 3 years.
August 14th, 2013 at 12:42 PM ^
I'm pretty sure Teric Jones had a serious knee injury that forced him to give up football, not transfer for PT.
August 14th, 2013 at 12:50 PM ^
Was gonna post the same thing, but I think maybe the OP is trying to say he transferred for physical therapy. /s
August 14th, 2013 at 12:43 PM ^
You guys do an awesome thorough analysis that can not be found anywhere else and thank you for that. Since I am a math teacher I would ask that you include at least one graph with each article! Thanks again.
August 14th, 2013 at 12:47 PM ^
Great article Brian. Please do this annually. I'd also like to see in any future editions when the kids leave the program - i.e. I am curious how much of the attrition was immediate (within 12-18 months) versus long term (i.e. injury / playing time). There were a lot of "not being a nice guy" blow ups there which from memory happened in relatively short periods of time for most of these kids. 2010 had so many leave for "playing time" it sort of smells wrong - think something else was behind some of those departures. As for 2012 class too soon to tell really what will happen but at least most made it through the first period of 12 months. A year from now we should have a better handle on what the 2012 class is.
August 14th, 2013 at 12:47 PM ^
They played as true freshman (granted, on a terrible terrible though injury-ravaged defense) and then transferred to Pitt during the coaching transition. They both play at Pitt now and have 2 more season of eligibility.
Christian can be considered a bust because he was a big-time recruit but he's playing and contributing to high level (well, Big East) college football. Vinopal was a GrittyMcGrit 2-star who appeared maybe a little underrated, if anything.
August 14th, 2013 at 1:00 PM ^
August 14th, 2013 at 2:01 PM ^
Take this for what it's worth, but I have it on good authority that Christian left because he felt he wasn't getting a fair shake with the new staff and wouldn't see the field.
August 14th, 2013 at 12:48 PM ^
I wonder where Stephen Hopkins goes now. I liked the kid. I tried to look online and saw that the Twitter he still uses he has a pic of him vs ND as his background and his bio says he plays football at Michigan. I'm guessing no love lost against Michigan.
August 14th, 2013 at 12:51 PM ^
Just not playing football. Focusing on school and getting his degree
August 14th, 2013 at 12:55 PM ^
...see this. I think he fits better in the left football category although it's possible he could end up somewhere next year as a grad student with one year of eligibility.
Ready to finish this degree at the best university in the world ! #blessed
— Stephen Hopkins (@younghopkins) August 7, 2013
August 14th, 2013 at 1:00 PM ^
I'm not sure it's entirely applicable to the nature of the article, but it would probably be more fair to Rodriguez to mention those who decommitted from the 2011 class after he was fired. Off the top of my head...Dallas Crawford, a different kicker named Matt (edit: Goudis), and that QB, Kevin Sousa? (edit: and of course Jake Fisher - this article helped jog my memory: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/tvh-weekly-kickers-decommits-new-offers and as Hannibal points out bellow, Dee Hart. That would be the, you know, obvious big name).
Ok, maybe that doesn't help Rodriguez, but the class very well would have had other names in it had he stayed.
August 14th, 2013 at 1:20 PM ^
ahhhh! lapsus! sorry
August 14th, 2013 at 1:55 PM ^
We'd also get to look forward to Rhett Rodriguez in 2017. What were fools we were to miss that boat.
August 14th, 2013 at 12:51 PM ^
No mention of The Pattern (tm) ?
August 14th, 2013 at 12:54 PM ^
The "what-if" hall of fame with Kelly Baraka.
August 14th, 2013 at 12:56 PM ^
Minor quibble -- Justice Hayes was a RichRod recruit.
Also, I think that the loss of Anthony Zettel can be squarely blamed upon "the process". I might throw Jake Fisher and Dee Hart in that category too, since the current staff has been so excellent at recruiting, I wonder if they could have kept those guys in it.
August 14th, 2013 at 12:57 PM ^
...he switched his commitment from ND to Michigan in Nov 2010. Here's the Hello post.
August 14th, 2013 at 2:10 PM ^
Blame The Process if you must, given Hoke was hired late. But he did get a chance at Fisher, and I believe more than one in-home. But by that point I think it was too late, Fisher went to Oregon on signing day.
Zettel, no - he announced earlier, and a big part of the problem I believe was the 3-3-5. I thought his HS coach hated it, thought Zettel would do better at PSU. Given Zettel was at multiple Michigan games throughout his senior season (I saw him constantly, just walking up to the stadium), it was a collosal failure on RR's part.
August 14th, 2013 at 4:25 PM ^
Zettel was a Michigan fan his whole life...my fiance is from WB and even his parents said they were going to be surprised if he picked anyone else...I think the 3-3-5 and the writing on the wall that Rich was not long for AA was enough to move him elsewhere.
August 14th, 2013 at 1:12 PM ^
All the criticism of RR's OL recruiting ignores some key considerations.
1. RR had to take 6 OL in the '08 class to fill out the void left by Carr. The '08 line was the worst thing ever.
2. Most of the guys Rodriguez recruited panned out for his system -- Barnum, Omameh, Lewan, Schofield were a strong core group of spread OL players.
3. Taking only one OL in the '10 class was idiotic, but he was (rightfully) focused on trying to fix the D. It's a semi-ratinal excuse. RR knew he could make up for it in '11 and probably would have with Jake Fisher and presumably others.
4. You can't judge the '11 class (for either Hoke or RR) because of the process. Rodriguez was under a massive cloud of uncertainty and Hoke had no time to rectify things.
August 14th, 2013 at 2:00 PM ^
Let's compare your comments to reality:
You say that RR had to take 6 OL in '08 to fill the void left by Carr...BUT...RR entered A2 with 19 OL on the roster. Let's compare that to what he left for Hoke - 14 OL. But at least he left Hoke with 13 WR's.
All the other stuff in your post...eh, we've been over it a million times. I can't wait to watch Michigan football this fall. Lemme know how Arizona does; I heard there's a new sheriff in town.
August 14th, 2013 at 2:21 PM ^
THank You Dahblue...I hated and continue to hate RR...please point out his country bumpkiness!!!
August 14th, 2013 at 2:33 PM ^
I don't hate RR, but I do hate his performance here and his refusal to take responsibility for...pretty much anything. I also don't really care if he came from WV, A2 or NYC...the guy seemed to feel that he was bigger than the program and that didn't work out so well.
August 14th, 2013 at 5:28 PM ^
It is notable that Carr left Molk and Huyge for RR. Ortmann and Dorrestein were older guys too, but who was the next best guy? Moosman, Nowicki (a walk-on)? You're talking about 2 or 3 Michigan-caliber starters at best.
Compare to what Hoke inherited from RR: 3 years of Lewan and Schofield, 2 years of Omameh, Barnum and Mealer, plus Miller, Bryant and a year of Huyge and Molk (from Carr). The inherited OL is a big reason why the 2011 team was so successful. Compare that to 2008. You do remember how awful the '08 OL was right?
Hoke inherited a far better situation along the OL than Rodriguez. I'm amazed anyone is even trying to make this an argument.
August 14th, 2013 at 6:22 PM ^
I'm amazed that anyone could continue to babble on about poor, poor RR and his bare cupboard, but you exist it seems. Hoke inherited 8 scholarship linemen. That's it. A good coach makes players better and doesn't whine about things like your boy. I'm gonna let you go now, cause I'm sure the bin only gives you limited access to the internet.
August 14th, 2013 at 7:08 PM ^
I'm not formulating a defense of Rodriguez as Michigan coach or rehashing the tired bare cupboard arguments. I'm describing what went down with OL recruiting and why we are in a situation where Hoke had to take 4 OL in '12 and 6 OL in '13...and I actually think he could have taken more.
I'll take 8 quality linemen over a dozen crappy ones any day of the week. Rodriguez had to resort to starting walk-ons, Hoke did not (although one injury could have changed that.) Neither coach inherited any sort of functional depth, no matter how many scholarship guys they had.
That one guy had a better OL situation than the other doesn't change the fact that Rodriguez's incompetance when it came to managing our defense is best described as epic.
August 14th, 2013 at 5:35 PM ^
August 14th, 2013 at 12:59 PM ^
He is at Clemson now and apparently doing well. When the Clemson D was being discussed on Bill King's show on Sirius, he mentioned the many highly touted LB's that were probably ready to step up. The Clemson 247 guy said, "you know, the guy I keep hearing about is Kellen Jones, a transfer from Oklahoma."
http://www.clemsontigers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=28500&ATCLID=205564208
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