Washington Defense vs Michigan's Other Opponents

Bill C

Washington has made a habit of defying the numbers of late, but the Huskies are going to have to do it one more time. While ESPN BET lists Michigan as a 4.5-point favorite at the moment, SP+ sees a pretty different game: It gives the Wolverines a 12.3-point advantage. 

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.

Shocking to see OSU offense - curious what it was before the Mizzou game.

I think the Michigan special teams ranking there isn't correct. I believe the correct ranking is "wait, what happened to all of my fingernails."

thanks for sharing - after watching how Washington played Oregon in the PAC-12 title game it just reinforces that you never know.  I saw lots of comments talking about how Bama would roll us (no pun intended but I guess it is there) and how we hadn't played anyone and all sorts of logic to discount why Michigan would lose.  Washington is in the title game after winning all their games and beating Oregon 2x and Texas.  I will be rooting for a Michigan win but assume we'll get UWs best game of their season.

Only defense worse than UW on that list is the comically bad LSU defense. 

I like SP+ but that would put Washington's defense in between Minnesota (31) and MSU (45). I find that hard to believe frankly, but clearly they're going to be a step down from PSU, OSU, and Bama

I think the difference will be Penix vs. Minter and the secondary. If Penix is dealing like he was at times vs Texas, it's going to be hard to beat, but I think after Michigan totally crushed Bama's pass offense this week that Michigan pass defense should be getting a lot more respect nationally

You don't even need fancystats. YPG is not a helpful stay, especially considering Washington is very explosive. Quicker drives for them means more drives for the opponent to rack up yards. Yards per play is a much better stat. Simple and more informative than YPG.

I agree. No setting downs on fire running into stacked boxes when it doesn't work

This is a pretty good comparison with TCU.  Penix is definitely a better QB than TCU's but their defenses seem pretty similar.  This game needs to be controlled from both of our lines O and D and not turn into a shootout.  We need to stay aggressive though because Washington can score points in a hurry.  It did shock me that Texas got minimal pressure on Penix, so I hope our DLine can do better.

Except it's ok to tackle the Washington return man inside the 15 on kickoffs.

I don't think deBoer calls the plays. I think it's the o-coordinator that Alabama tried to hire before they turned to Rees. Regardless, whoever is calling the plays is terrific.

Much better WRs than Maryland. Much better OL.  Much better QB.

Playing Washington will be a little like an NFL game. When an NFL QB like Mahomes or Allen is dealing, it is nearly impossible to stop them. If Penix wants to drop inch perfect dimes on his receivers like he did to Texas last night it's going to be really hard. Hopefully Minter has enough confusing looks to throw Penix off his game

Washington will score on short drives (time-wise) then Michigan will march the field and eat up clock. By the 4th quarter they will be gassed and the psychopath will finally drown the ferret. 

If a defense backed up 5 yards away from the line of scrimmage only about 10% of offensive coordinators would run it on every down. There are just so dang smart. 

They do have the Joe Moore Award winning offensive line. I'd assume that's much better than Bama's OL, but cross-conference comparisons are tough to feel confident about.