CFP initial rankings predictions

If they're going by resume, I assume it's
1) OSU 2) UW 3) FSU 4) UGA 5) M 6) UO 7) OU 8) UT 9) Bama

If by quality of play/game control type, it's
1) M 2) UGA 3) OSU 4) FSU 5) UW 6) UO same 789 - caveat that 2-5 are much closer here

in both cases i'm assuming the P5 undefeateds will come before any of the P5 1 loss teams, even tho UO and UT have good losses and UO has looked as good as M outside of that and OU and UT have the 2nd and 3rd best wins of the season. Also assuming the H2H will keep OU ahead of UT.

We have to be 1 or 2, if they have not lost their minds

Wouldn’t be surprised to see Ohio State ranked over Michigan given that they have two wins over teams that were in the Top 10 at the time. Can’t say I’d mind it either, honestly. I’d love to see Michigan beat a higher ranked Ohio State team again!

Annual reminder: the only rankings that matter are the last one.  These weekly rankings in November primarily exist to get ESPN eyeballs and ratings

(ESPN - the same network that literally faked a Damian Lillard interview just last week.  So take their motivations for what they are) 

Anyway, where I'm going.  Tennessee was ranked #1 in the first one of these "TV shows" last year.  They were then undefeated and had wins over Alabama & LSU (both then-Top 15 teams by all advanced metrics), along with Kentucky, Florida & Pittsburgh (all Top 30 or above).

If the committee applies the same logic this year (which is far from a guarantee - their "logic" often changes at random), OSU is likely #1 on tomorrow's "TV show."

It doesn't really matter where we're ranked right now, but it would be hilarious if they put us above OSU and they all flip their shit for the 10th straight day

Yes, who you've beaten is a big factor for the CFP rankings, but so to is the "eye test". Michigan wins the eye test easily out of all the top 10 teams. Their weak schedule will hurt them though... but in the end, it doesn't matter as long as they keep winning. So, given all that, here's my prediction:

1. Ohio State (due to wins over Notre Dame and Penn St)

2. Florida State (due to wins over LSU and Duke)

3. Georgia (due to SEC bias and the committee not separating this year from their championship teams of last 2 years)

4. Michigan (most dominant team in CFB)

5. Washington (due to win over Oregon)

6. Oregon

If Michigan ends up ranked only 4th or 5th, that just serves to fuel our team even more. 

Play the games. Go, Blue!

I'd be really surprised if they left out UM, but not surprised of osu is ranked higher than UM to give them a boost for beating two top 10 teams. I mean...that is something so there's that. 

There is part of me that wants osu higher. It feels like we are getting that 2021 mojo fight combined with extreme talent.

1. GA

2. OSU

3. UM

4. FSU

Seems the team has converted over to being fueled by disrespect.   I welcome not being ranked.  

G,M,O,F

1. Michigan

2. UNLV

3. Michigan State

4. ECU
 

Finally someone will recognize our quality wins!

I'm assuming this:

1. Michigan

2. Georgia

3. Washington

4. Florida State

5. Ohio State

6. Oregon, but maybe Alabama

The lower they rank Michigan the more pissed off they are going to be so I’m good with any ranking other than 2 if that’s what they want to do. If they are 1 or 2, then it’s deserved and the team will go back to business as usual, so I’m good either way. That said I think it’ll be 1) Georgia 2) Michigan 3) FSU and 4) Ohio St 5) Washington and 6) Oregon 

1.  Ball State

2.  Colorado School of Mines

3.  Kansas

4.  West Texas A&M

First four out:

5.  Grand Valley State

6.  Georgia

7.  Miami (NTM)

8.  Even Numbered Games Georgia Tech

1) Georgia - they’ll get the benefit of the doubt because they’re back to back title winners, and when they’re bringing their A-game, they look as dominant as Michigan has. 

2) OSU - they don’t look the part, but the resume is there, and they have the best non-QB in the country playing for them. 

3) Michigan - Like Georgia, they look the part, but they’ve been having to wait for November to show everyone if they can do this against better competition. 

4) FSU - Had a couple close calls but when they’re on their game they look tough to beat. 

First two out:

5) Washington - I’m tempted to put Oregon higher because Oregon has looked better, but Washington has the head to head.

6) Oregon - no shame in their one loss, by my estimation, and I think they’re playing as well as anyone. That win at Utah was really stinking impressive. I’d bet they win out from here and grab the 3 or 4 spot in the CFP. 

Given the history, I would say:

1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. Florida State
4. Michigan

5. Washington
6. Oregon
7. Alabama
8. Penn State
9. Texas
10. Olahoma

I agree I think they're gonna stick us at #5 for now to make a point about how SOS and who you beat matters. Even if they really don't think we're 5, they're going to look at resumes and have trouble justifying us being higher than that.

Although OSU at #1 is laughable. There's resume ranking, and then there's just ignoring what you're seeing on the field.

Last year we started 5th in the rankings with Clemson ahead of us.  Similar circumstances with Michigan mostly dominating but playing a weak schedule.  The difference is that this year we are dominating much more (no games like Maryland last year), but our schedule is even worse than last year's.   

Last year we at least had a road win over Iowa (was 4-4 at CFP release but had a top 10 defense and I believe top 35 SP+) and a win over Maryland (who was top 25 in SP+ metrics).  This year our top SP+ win is somewhere in the mid-50's I believe.  But outside of the first half and change of the Rutgers game we've destroyed our opponents from start to finish.

All this to say, Ohio State, Georgia, Florida State and Washington all have multiple wins better than our best win.  They have not nearly been as dominant as Michigan, even against teams similar to the teams Michigan has destroyed.  I am going to predict UM is 5th in the first CFP rankings with the same justification that committee gave last year, that they need to prove themselves against good competition.   It will have nothing to do with the "scandal", just simply how the CFP does things.

Honestly, while it will be annoying in the moment it's fine, just keep winning and we'll be good.

Edit: Some schedule analysis using SP+...here are the SP+ rankings of the opponents of top 5 teams.  The number at the end is the average opponent.  For FCS teams I just counted them as 134 for averaging, 1 beyond the 133 FBS teams.  Not sure how much that skews things but whatever.

Washington - 55, 112, @74, 66, @32, 6, 79, @102 - 66
Ohio State - @95, FCS, 87, @9, 31, @82, 10, 27 - 59 
Florida St - n12, 120, @81, @21, 59, 65, 29, @70 - 57
Georgia    - FCS, 125, 60, 109, @43, 25, @100, n35 - 79
Michigan   - 117, 83, 113, 50, @51, @49, 95, @74 - 79

Michigan's toughest opponent was Minnesota, a road game against number 49.  Washington has played 2 "tougher" games, OSU has played 4, Florida State 3, Georgia 3. 

My guess is 1. Ohio State, 2. Florida State, 3. Georgia, 4. Washington, 5. Michigan.  I could definitely be wrong and hope I am.

Prediction:

1. Georgia

2. Michigan

3. Ohio State

4. Washington

Why would anyone think UM wont be in the top 4?  Sure, UM's schedule has been light, but so have many other teams.  UM is defeating their opponents in such a way that no other school can come even close to matching Michigan's dominance so far this season.

Oh sure, you're gonna write "but the scandal will affect the CFP voters."  Not as much as you might think.  Michigan hasnt even been accused of anything yet from the official NCAA, let alone been found guilty of anything.  The voters will also have "innocent before guilty" in the back of their minds when/if they consider to the scandal and where to rank Michigan.

#GoBlue

This broad still has something personal against Michigan and Harbaugh. The beautiful thing about our team is that we are in the driver seat from here on out.

Beat Purdue.

1.) OSU

2.) Georgia

3.) Washington

4.) Colorado

5.) Michigan

6.) FSU

7.) Oregon

If UM isn't in the top 4 then the committee hasn't watched college football this year.

1. Georgia

2. OSU

3. FSU

4. Nefarious Sign-Stealers

I'm a Connor Stalions-level Michigan superfan, and even I can wait 24 hours to find out for real. 

Doesn't matter right now, but to those who know ball - they eye test doesn't lie.

UGA and UM have separated themselves.  Lots of parity below that.  

OSU, PSU, Washington, FSU all pretty mid tbh.  Good, not great football teams.

Alabama is starting to play better and would not be surprised, if they Milroe continues to improve, to see them win the SEC and make the playoff along with UGA. 

OSU building their program around a passing offense and then having a meh QB is death.  Go watch film of Barrett and Stroud and then McCord and you'll understand how much worse this OSU team really is than years past.

I also believe that the only 2 teams with the lines and physicality to challenge UM this year are UGA and Bama - but for once, we finally have the better QB.

If they’re gonna ding us for a weak schedule, then they have to ding Georgia too.

More interesting to me will be the amount air time devoted to the "scandal" in Ann Arbor and how it's presented on air.  I'm guessing the term "integrity of the game" will be used multiple times and they'll spend more than a few minutes talking about the "looming potential suspension", "upcoming penalties", "fleeing to the NFL" and lastly "potential NCAA violations".

This will be an excellent canary in the coal mine is gauging how this kerfuffle is really being viewed outside of Columbus & East Lansing.

Good, keep Michigan out of the initial rankings.  Give them even more hate juice to go off of to prove the doubters wrong.  

My rankings

1-Georgia

2-Michigan

3-Florida State

4-Ohio State 

5-Washington 

6-Oregon

CFP prediction

1-Georgia

2-Ohio State

3-Florida State 

4-Washington 

5-Oregon 

6-Michigan 

I mean, I get the OSU resume point.  But, they only beat ND because they ND decided to see if they could score style points by running 10 guys on defense, and a couple of other pretty bad coaching calls.  And they've scuffed along in several games.  We haven't done so past the first quarter of any game.  And, Georgia can't seriously claim the Florida win was quality.

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Florida State
4. Ohio State
5. Washington
6. Oregon