Unverified Voracity Remembers, Ominously
Quote of the year. Mike Sainristil on prepping for MSU:
“Coach Harbaugh says: ‘A faithful man forgives; a smart man forgets; the Harbaughs remember,’’ Mike Sainristil quipped.
This does not put the Harbaughs in the "smart man" category, admittedly.
Don't get cocky, kids. The Athletic has an Anonymous Coach Quote article about this weekend's OSU-PSU game that touches on Michigan towards the end, and well, neato:
“Michigan is above both of them,” said a staffer who faced Penn State. “Ohio State and Penn State are 2-a and 2-b in some order, but Michigan is well above both of them.”
Also:
“Michigan brought the fight to them in my mind,” said an assistant coach who faced Ohio State. “We really won’t know about this year’s team until we see them play against Michigan. That game is going to come down to the line of scrimmage. I don’t know how physical they are. Notre Dame was a fairly physical game, and they struggled to move the ball. That’s the only team they’ve played that can really match them up front so far.”
It seems like the coaches surveyed for this article give PSU the edge this weekend. We're going to learn a lot about how far the OSU OL has come since they got overwhelmed by their own defensive ends in their spring game:
“Their defensive ends, they have three that are elite P5 players, and they may have the best collective group of linebackers in the country,” said one head coach who faced the Nittany Lions. “They have two NFL Draft picks at corner who can play man; one’s a first rounder, the other is probably a third- or fourth-rounder. Their third-down package is good, but they don’t have to do anything crazy. (Defensive coordinator Manny Diaz) likes to be creative, but they don’t have to do a ton to get to the quarterback.”
Against Michigan last year Diaz got creative to the detriment of his own team; it's possible they can play Michigan more straight up this year and not get thrown into the ocean by Michigan's ground game.
[After THE JUMP: a tale too toxic to tell]
Also in Penn State. But you might have to throw the ball somewhere in the vicinity of "downfield". Yeesh:
Drew Allar's 6.9 yards per attempt ranks 83rd nationally among 113 qualified passers. His 6.3 air yards per attempt ranks 108th.
PSU has been able to grind out wins against the meek and lovelorn; probably going to take some explosives to beat OSU since I don't think the PSU ground game is likely do do much.
Something interesting from Yet Another NIL Hearing. Yesterday Congress had its tenth(!) opportunity to rabble about college football players getting rights literally everyone else in the country has; I'll spare you the counter-rabbling… most of the counter-rabbling. I will allow myself one counter-rabble:
https://t.co/NPLP6JM4gi pic.twitter.com/6JdJZnhCms
— mgoblog (@mgoblog) October 17, 2023
There.
Anyway, the most newsworthy thing coming out of this hearing was outgoing ND athletic director Jack Swarbrick talking to reporters after his testimony:
“It’s a fairly radical notion, but if we could find a way to reach binding agreements with our student-athletes, most of this goes away,” the Notre Dame athletic director said, referring to what industry leaders say is a chaotic compensation system around name, image and likeness (NIL).
“We don’t have a mechanism to [collectively bargain] without them becoming employees. It would require a new mechanism that would recognize the rights of student-athletes to negotiate for the terms and conditions of their participation as athletes without being employees. I think it’s worth considering.”
Swarbrick is still holding on to the "they're not employees" fig leaf but once you have collectively bargained with your Not Employees you're 99.9% of the way to making them employees.
"Thanks, Alejandro" – Seth. Michigan's odd-looking interception at the end of the first drive against Indiana, as explained by Sainristil:
“It was kind of a zone between me, Rod and Junior. Will was out there locked man-to-man. And when three sits, I sit. So he sat and I went to make a play on the ball. I’m not 6-3. My arms aren’t long enough to pick it myself. But I batted it up to him. I could have dove for it, but I saw he was in position.”
So it was probably Rod Moore who needed to get over the top of the #2 guy going to the endzone.
Prediction: overblown. Austin Meek has an article on the "toxic" Michigan-Michigan State rivalry in the Athletic, but the only things cited other than the tunnel incident are light press conference sparring, Michigan State dysfunction that doesn't have anything to do with one specific football game on the schedule*, and the State News quitting the annual flag football game because they always lose. The specter of fan violence is brought up:
As the teams prepare to meet for the first time since the tunnel altercation, fans are understandably wary of another incident. In July, a Detroit radio host cautioned Michigan fans to stay away from Spartan Stadium or risk “eating a battery.” The game will be played at night, which tends to encourage a rowdier crowd. It also will be the first Michigan-Michigan State game since the passage of a state law that allows schools to serve alcohol at sporting events.
We are fortunate that circumstances have conspired to lower the temperature in the MSU fanbase. Instead of hoping against hope that Coach Sunk Cost Fallacy can turn it around by going 3-1 against Michigan, MSU fans are looking at a potential 2-10 season headed by an interim coach. Judging by the Red Cedar Message board, anyone who actually attends the game is going to pull the ripcord if Michigan gets up a couple scores. The game will likely pass without much incident unless one of MSU's periodic attempts to injure a Michigan player works, and I'm not even sure MSU has enough GAF left in them to try it.
Meanwhile, this guy is so close to getting it:
Why does the number of calls the fire department got matter? In a piece about a toxic rivalry where many things from one side are included and the only thing from the other side is from 1949? Which is just linked, not explained out.
— Sean Deere (@SDwyer_21) October 18, 2023
Cogitate just a little further.
*[Except insofar as everything wrong with the MSU athletic department is about one specific football game on the schedule; in any case none of the Tucker/BOT stuff has anything to do with Michigan.]
Etc.: Step 1: complete. Step 2: Samuel L Jackson commencement speech. Bill Connelly names Jaylen Harrell Michigan's midseason MVP, which is bold. The Chronicle on Santa Ono's tenure to date. NIL has not led to a collapse in ratings. Inside Washington and Oregon's move to the Big Ten. Michigan –156 against Fitchburg State. If A&M axes Jimbo you can probably eliminate Mike Elko from the MSU search.
October 18th, 2023 at 1:20 PM ^
On the broadcast last week, Gus Johnson made a point of saying it's pronounced "Mikey" Sainristil, is that right? Spelled Mike but pronounced Mikey? Or is Mikey the nickname?
October 18th, 2023 at 1:50 PM ^
Spelled Mike, pronounced Mikey. It is not a nickname.
October 18th, 2023 at 3:02 PM ^
Someone should tell FOX about the spelling.
October 22nd, 2023 at 12:17 PM ^
Someone should tell Sainristil himself, since he wears his "blue collar" jacket around with the name 'Mikey' affixed to the front.
October 18th, 2023 at 1:56 PM ^
Seth said in one of his pieces that it’s Mike pronounced Mikey. I for one look forward to Gus’s nickname for him when he takes and interception to the house against OSU.
October 18th, 2023 at 3:18 PM ^
I will still pronounce it "Magic Mike"
October 18th, 2023 at 3:15 PM ^
I thoroughly enjoyed the differences of pronunciation for Keon Sabb's last name between Johnson and Klatt after his INT. I forget between the two who said it but one pronounced it incorrectly as Saab and no more than 10 seconds later the other was correct with Sabb. So... that was as entertaining as anything IU did for most of the game.
October 18th, 2023 at 5:03 PM ^
It was Gus. And I think it happened once in the Minnesota game too. As a Saab enthusiast, I hope he formally changes the pronunciation.
October 18th, 2023 at 7:39 PM ^
I keep thinking that they should nickname Keon, "Turbo" in honor of the Saab Turbo.
October 19th, 2023 at 8:07 AM ^
I wonder why they just did not name him Mikey then?
I don’t think it is “pronounced” Mikey. I think people just always called him that so it became his name. Adverse possession so to speak.
October 18th, 2023 at 1:22 PM ^
‘A faithful man forgives; a smart man forgets; the Harbaughs remember,’’
This quote needs to go on a Game of Thrones-style shirt ASAP!
October 18th, 2023 at 1:29 PM ^
A Michigan Man always pays his debts.
October 18th, 2023 at 3:09 PM ^
Pepperidge Farm, The North, and The Harbaughs remember.
October 18th, 2023 at 3:45 PM ^
Someone with an AI image account, please get a pic of Jack, Jim and John eating some tasty PF bread or bagel or cupcakes while manning the wall at the service of Queen Sansa.
October 18th, 2023 at 3:16 PM ^
...and we have a lot of old scores to settle.
October 18th, 2023 at 5:50 PM ^
That reminded me of this all-timer from Spencer Hall and co.
October 18th, 2023 at 3:28 PM ^
Yeah but can you verify to me the meaning? Is it not forgetting the crap MSU pulled over the years, like the practice field incident and tunnel.incident?
October 18th, 2023 at 3:51 PM ^
Always with: An enthusiasm unknown to mankind who has it better than us. Nobody!
October 18th, 2023 at 7:53 PM ^
Will buy for my whole family.
October 18th, 2023 at 1:23 PM ^
LOL, I saw Michigan -156 against Fitchburg State, figured that must have been a basketball opponent I'd forgotten, and thought "oh crap, it's really going to be an awful season if the money line to beat Fitchburg State is only -156."
I like it a lot better as a point spread. :)
October 18th, 2023 at 1:27 PM ^
Love the picture at the top of the post.
Seems to have become Jim's default facial expression.
My wife and I enjoy making fun of it during the games we watch on TV. (Most of the time, we are watching in Michigan Stadium!)
October 18th, 2023 at 1:33 PM ^
Penn State defense versus Michigan offensive tackles might be a make-or-break factor on November 11.
Then again, Drew Allar versus "throwing the ball further than 7 yards down field" might also be the make-or-break factor on November 11.
October 18th, 2023 at 1:58 PM ^
PSU DEs vs. overpursuing JJ could be a factor. JJ is one of the better QBs in the country when flushed from the pocket. I think an open question will be: will opposing defenses who may be capable of pressuring JJ opt to do so? Or will they opt to "contain" him in the pocket? I think the PSU DEs are sufficiently better than our OTs to have that choice.
I think containing him is the smarter move. He's created too many explosives and TDs when flushed.
October 18th, 2023 at 7:33 PM ^
I don't disagree with any of this. Michigan has enough options and JJ has shown he can extend and make plays. I also don't think UM's tackles are awful.
However, Penn State's defense is legit. It will easily be the best defense Michigan has faced to that point by a pretty wide margin, and you can probably take that statement back through to include last season as well. They have some dudes all over the place, so while I expect Michigan to make some plays and JJ to navigate his way out of some potentially perilous situations, the Nittany Lions are going to get home and make some plays on the back end that Michigan nor JJ will likely have had to deal to that point. I think it's going to be a very interesting matchup that probably won't be as lopsided as it was last season.
October 18th, 2023 at 2:40 PM ^
Michigan OTs are not *that* bad. I think PSU defense will definitely get past them a number of times and disrupt some offense, but not enough to make up for PSU's own inept offense getting shutdown.
October 18th, 2023 at 6:26 PM ^
Their offense is far from inept. They just lack a down field passing game.
October 18th, 2023 at 7:14 PM ^
I mean maybe not inept but they have also struggled to run the ball against defenses with a pulse so that doesn't leave them many options against a defense like UM's.
October 18th, 2023 at 4:24 PM ^
I predict a rock fight score like 13-10 until OSU closes with 10 unanswered late to win 23-10.
October 18th, 2023 at 5:33 PM ^
Sort of with you. Feels like explosives by OSU make a difference, to the point where PSU fans will have convinced themselves Michigan won't be able to do the same.
October 19th, 2023 at 9:27 AM ^
I don't think OSU can run the ball enough to set up explosives unless Manny Diaz does something stupid like "single coverage on MHJR on the outside". OSU's o-line is mid at best. They won't be able to run, and McCord gets happy feet when there's pressure.
Definitely a rock fight, but I just don't see OSU landing a bunch of haymakers unless Frames shows up and/or Manny Diaz over-thinks it.
October 18th, 2023 at 5:57 PM ^
23-13. If it’s a two-score game, Frames Janklin will kick a FG with 2:30 left in the 4th quarter.
October 19th, 2023 at 10:39 AM ^
I'm not sold on PSU's defensive ends just yet. They played almost as bad of a schedule as we have so they could just be beating up on bad tackles. Even Iowa's tackles are not good. I think our tackles, while maybe not elite this year, will be the best they face all year. OSU's tackles are not good.
October 18th, 2023 at 1:35 PM ^
Wow, those stats of Drew Allar's tendency to throw short are even more stark than I expected. Frames made a point during his weekly presser yesterday to emphasize how Drew has learned to take the checkdowns--and how! My sense is that since Jim Knowles has moved his safeties back further in order to (successfully) limit opponent explosive plays, Allar will continue throwing short and safe passes on Saturday.
So if Brian is right that PSU's running game will have difficulty against OSU's front seven then that means Penn St. will have to earn their way down the field using short-ish passes. Tough to do consistently on the road, especially for a young first time starting QB.
What's interesting is that OSU's running game might be no more effective against PSU's defense. So it's going to be a close game where turnovers and special teams play matter even more than usual. I think PSU's probably the better team, even playing at OSU, and I suspect Allar is the better of the 2 QBs even though McCord is more 'battle tested' since they won at ND.
A blowout by either side seems <10% likely and if I were a betting man--which I'm definitely not--I'd take PSU and the points. But in real life I think OSU ends up winning the game by a slim margin. They have Marvin Harrison Jr. and Ryan Day is a better in-game coach than Frames Janklin.
October 18th, 2023 at 3:26 PM ^
I really have no clue which way it's gonna go. Both offenses have looked a little shaky against better competition. I think both D-lines are going to manhandle the other's O-line. Might come down to which QB makes more mistakes and honestly thats probably McCord?
If this was in Happy Valley I would be thinking PSU could pull it off. In Columbus I dunno
October 18th, 2023 at 4:57 PM ^
PSU is gonna body blow OSU to death, and Franklin will include multiple references in his post game interview to his team's toughness.
And then 11/11 will be 1997 all over again. It'll be glorious.
October 20th, 2023 at 3:04 PM ^
Alan Branch approves this message
October 18th, 2023 at 1:36 PM ^
Full-page ads that cover all of the content. Nice.
October 19th, 2023 at 8:57 AM ^
This 100%.
Please, please, please @Seth and @Brian:
Yes, I could block all the ads on the site. Yes, on PC I can hit "refresh" and most of the time skip the stupid full-screen ad that can't be scrolled past. But if the ads are the revenue model for this excellent site, why would I deprive MGoBlog of revenue?
Please: offer a subscriber "no ads" option. Other sites do: for example, https://crm.timesofisrael.com/sign-in.
I would sign up in a heartbeat, and I'm sure many of your other devoted fans would, too.
October 18th, 2023 at 1:52 PM ^
Harbaughs remember:
Final score Michigan 77 MSU 0
October 18th, 2023 at 2:46 PM ^
I would love to see it be 78-0, when we successfully go for two after the 11th touchdown.
October 18th, 2023 at 3:29 PM ^
I'd like to see 79-0, only to best the Rutgers score.
October 18th, 2023 at 1:53 PM ^
"Coach Sunk Cost Fallacy" is excellent.
October 18th, 2023 at 2:29 PM ^
Doesn't "sunk cost" refer to situations where the money was spent in the past (i.e., is not recoverable and not to be spent in the future), which is why considering it in decisionmaking is a fallacy? If so, Mel's contract tying up money in the future isn't a sunk cost and shouldn't be considered a fallacy.
That's my wet blanket moment of the day; please continue dumping on MSU.
October 18th, 2023 at 2:36 PM ^
I think it applies here. They had already invested him, past tense. Also, while it is true they had not yet paid his future salary, they were committed to do so, and would have had to pay it in full to get rid of him. So it was at least a tied up cost.
Recent circumstances have changed the equation.
October 18th, 2023 at 6:00 PM ^
They weren’t trying to keep him around to justify the money already spent tho. They were hoping to get rid of him.
October 18th, 2023 at 11:46 PM ^
This.
October 18th, 2023 at 2:58 PM ^
There is most definitely a chance they recover some of this money. So I agree, not really applicable.
If I'm MSU I'm finding my next coach from the MWC or some such place. Rebuild from the ground up. What worked before cannot work again.
October 18th, 2023 at 6:15 PM ^
The sunk cost fallacy is an emotional and psychological phenomenon, it doesn't have to be confined to a balance sheet definition. But in terms of your "cash vs. accrual" distinction, if I take out a mortgage on a shitty house that is overpriced and I can't really afford, and then I refuse to move from that shitty house because I will lose my deposit despite the mortgage payment accounting for almost all of my monthly income and there being better houses out there that win more football games, that is the sunk cost fallacy. I don't get credit when that house lights itself on fire and bails me out of everything, even if I have someone from the board of trustees turn off the smoke alarms.
Comments