Fee Fi Foe Film: Rutgers Defense 2023
Previously: Rutgers Offense
We're back for the defense half of FFFF, focusing on the side of the ball that our opponents for this weekend specialize in. Rutgers has started the season 3-0 largely on the back of its offense so it's time to ask: how scared should we be of Sir Henry's finest defenders this weekend?
The Film: We're going with Virginia Tech again for reasons previously stated in the offense piece, recency and the likelihood that the Hokies are indeed better than Northwestern and Temple (not assured, but likely).
Personnel: Don't get mad, Seth is testing the powers of the Michigan Cyan Circle Positive Jinx [click for big]:
Rutgers' EDGEs are familiar to those who read this column last season, or Michigan recruiting news dating back four years. Old Friend Aaron Lewis is still around, his chops against the run still up for debate (they seemed fine in the game I charted) but his overall importance to this Rutgers defense is not. The one-time Michigan commit is currently off to a blazing start to the season, PFF's 3rd-highest graded EDGE player to play at least 50% of his team's snaps. He gets the star for it.
The other EDGE is still Wesley Bailey, the one who gets to drop into coverage from time to time. He's fine, but not the impact piece of Lewis. Bailey is the spot on the line that rotates out more frequently, where you can see the likes of Kenny Fletcher and Jordan Thompson get involved. Sometimes you'll see Rutgers go 3-3-5 with their passrushing SLB coming on in Bailey's place, who I'll get to in a moment.
DT in my estimation is still the biggest weakness on the Rutgers defense. Mayan Ahanotu is starting after being in the rotation a year ago, while Isaiah Iton, a journeyman transfer joins him in the lineup. Both of these players were liable to being shoved around, Iton especially, earning the diagram's lone starter cyan circle. As most teams do, Rutgers rotates their tackles pretty heavily, Rene Konga, Kyonte Hamilton, and Troy Rainey all in the mix and all of them unspectacular. There is no Dude at this position.
There is at LB though, MLB Tyreem Powell. A real good player, Powell earns the Dangerman designation this week and is the 12th-highest graded ILB in PFF's grading among players at the position to play at least 50% of his team's snaps. WLB Deion Jennings isn't as good but is still a solid starter and then their third LB is the aforementioned SAM, Mohamed Toure. Though Toure's main skill is his pass-rush ability, he is plenty capable of performing ILB duties and did so in the place of one of the MIKE/WILL starters in the VT game from time to time.
Rutgers typically goes with five DBs, though sometimes they're in a 4-3 with the SLB out there. The nickel who gets lifted when they shift is Desmond Igbinosun, who seemed decent to me. Like a lot of team's nickels, he has responsibility in the blitzing department. The outside corners are longtime Scarlet Knight Max Melton and Robert Longerbeam, both of whom are familiar with the program and these roles. They are decent B1G starters but showed vulnerability to vertical passing in the VT game. At safety, Minnesota transfer Flip Dixon has had a tremendous start to the season and just missed star status. Shaquan Loyal starts as a ho-hum safety next to him. Eric Rogers is the first corner off the bench, Joe Lusardi the first safety.
[AFTER THE JUMP: clips]
Base set: Rutgers was again mostly running a 4-2-5 like last season:
But they used 4-3 personnel with the SLB Toure in the game quite a bit more than last season. Most of the time when they bring him out, they line everybody up at the line and look like they'll go for it:
Something to note I guess.
Man or zone coverage: Rutgers is still running a base quarters, putting them in the zone category for the generic defense. Cover 1 shell appears to facilitate their blitz packages but at heart, this is a zone defense, as it always is under Schiano.
Pressure: Not a ton has changed here, either Rutgers clocking in pretty high on the blitz-ball scale. This season they check in at 45.5% of snaps with greater than four rushers, a tick higher than last season's 39.6%. That 2022 number was the second highest number I charted last season behind only Indiana. Last season I attributed the blitziness to Rutgers' need to get to CJ Stroud (I charted OSU/Rutgers), whereas this year I think it's probably the result of facing a run-heavy offense that mobilizes the QB often, where you're not worrying about the pass as much. Unlike last year, they did rush fewer than four players on at least one play... two plays! As a percentage, that's 2.6% of the time. This isn't a "drop eight and make you pick us a part" defense.
Dangerman: Last year's Dangerman, S Avery Young, has departed the Rutgers program so this year the designation goes to MLB Tyreem Powell. Powell has been a Swiss Army Knife piece for Schiano's defense this season, with the ability to do so many different things. He can slice into the backfield and help stuff a run:
On a team that I did think had some tackling problems in the VT game, Powell was sure-handed and cleaned plays up, sideline-to-sideline:
He is Rutgers' highest graded tackling defender this season in PFF's data and the nation's second-best tackling ILB by grade behind Alabama's Deontae Lawson. Another nice tackle:
Rutgers also blitzes him plenty, much more so than their other standard ILB Deion Jennings. I didn't have any particularly great clips of his blitzes in this game, but you will see it in the background of other clips I show. Be it in his nose for run defense, surehanded tackling, ability to drop into coverage or blitz, Powell is a stand-out middle linebacker for this Rutgers team and a pretty good testament to Schiano's ability to coach linebackers.
Overview
Like with the offense, let's look over the performances of the Rutgers defense holistically to start this section off:
- Northwestern: 201 total yards, 3.2 YPP; 24/41, 3.3 Y/A, 1 TD, 2 INT; 22 rushes, 12 yards, 0.5 YPC
- Temple: 310 total yards, 4.4 YPP; 20/48, 4.8 Y/A, 1 TD, 2 INT; 24 rushes, 84 yards, 3.5 YPC
- Virginia Tech: 319 yards, 4.5 YPP; 19/32, 5.9 Y/A, 1 TD, 1 INT; 39 rushes, 129 yards, 3.3 YPC
From a thousand-foot view, pretty good! Rutgers has muzzled the opposing passing games and has intercepted more passes than passing touchdowns allowed. No one has rushed for more than 3.5 YPC against Rutgers, including sacks. There aren't a ton of holes to poke in this performance. Unfortunately, the teams that they played are uniformly terrible and it's tough to do any fair comparison between those teams and what Michigan boasts on offense.
An easier way to do this analysis is to compare Rutgers to their defense from a year ago. A lot of pieces have changed but some remain from a unit that finished 57th in SP+ a year ago.
So how do you feel about Rutgers 2023 on D vs. Rutgers 2022?
Mostly the same? I think the some of the returning pieces, like the linebackers and the EDGE guys, are better than last season. Their safeties, particularly Flip Dixon, seem to have replaced the impact safeties they had last year surprisingly well. But I still have a negative feeling on the defensive tackles, which was a weak spot last season, and their corners are merely "decent"- not star players. This is a sturdy, well-coached defense that Greg Schiano should be proud of given the talent level on the roster. That doesn't mean they have the chops to be able to bottle up the Michigan offense when it's on its game. There are enough vulnerabilities for the Wolverines to exploit.
But let's start with the good stuff. Erstwhile Michigan commit Aaron Lewis has continued to improve at EDGE and popped frequently in the VT game tape. He got a sack, but that was more a highlight for a different player. I'll show it to you later. What I liked the most about Lewis was his ability to get off his block and chase the QB around in space. Against a mobile QB like Virginia Tech's Kyron Drones, this was essential to stop plays like this 2 point try:
He had some good rush moments too, including this one where he and the blitzing LB Deion Jennings force Drones to get the ball out and he throws to a guy who isn't open:
I'm not going to comment on Aaron Lewis' run defense because I didn't see enough instances to really assess. He got drilled by doubles a few times but that's expected when you're a 260 lb. EDGE. The bigger concern for Rutgers EDGEs and the run was the inability to defend the zone read effectively. I know we're not big on the "run JJ against Rutgers" thing but if you have a chance to read Wesley Bailey, go for it. Pull the football and he will crash down hard every time:
They don't get the first down here because it was 3rd & 11, but this sort of thing was going on all day. And against Northwestern:
Bailey isn't a bad player, it's just a weak spot. VT also had success reading Kenny Fletcher as well, while Lewis did the most against it. I'd pepper a few in just to exploit this exposed underbelly and pick up some free yards.
As we noted earlier, Rutgers is very blitzy. A lot of the clips I show you will have blitzes in them, sometimes from the LB level, sometimes from the corners. They also still throw in some stunts from their old stunt 4-3 playbook and bring SLB Mohamed Toure on to rush the passer. He does most of the heavy lifting here to flush the QB right into Aaron Lewis:
A problem that popped up for the Scarlet Knights was when they dialed up the blitz and it didn't get home. The natural result of blitzing is you are forced to man up your corners to facilitate the extra bodies you're throwing at the QB and the corners got toasted a few too many times for my liking. Here's one:
That's NB Desmond Igbinosun who gets cooked, with S Flip Dixon coming over to help and triggering the DPI flag. On this one, it's outside CB Max Melton who is tossed in the toaster:
Virginia Tech didn't throw down the field a ton early in the game, but once they did, they started being able to get some huge gains against the Rutgers' corners. The big passing TD they got was another blitz that didn't get home but in this case it was a zone coverage that has a giant hole ripped open in it:
I didn't see many zone coverage busts so I think that one was a one off. They're generally well-drilled in their base defense. But I had to include it because it was a big play in this game. These bad clips I showed you are not an indictment of the whole secondary of Rutgers, instead it's just an indicator that they are vulnerable down the field. For the most part, they're still pretty good though. I showed you the one pressure clip where Igbinosun covered the fade very well and the ball landed out of bounds. Flip Dixon's interception was a highlight-reel play:
Unfortunately, a handful of the five interceptions Rutgers have forced this season are clearly the result of terrible throws by terrible QBs:
They're a respectable pass defense, not a great one. To this point they've faced pass offenses that look more like Bowling Green with their walk-on third string QB than pass offenses that look like Michigan's.
As for the rushing game, I continue to see vulnerabilities with their defensive tackles. This was a problem last year during my evaluation of Rutgers and it hasn't gone away in my view. Rutgers has had success stopping the run this season because their LBs are pretty good and they blitz a lot, which has given them extra numbers in the box. Also, their opponents aren't any good. But the defensive tackles have mostly been riding in the sidecar and been at fault for some issues in short yardage. The two starters, Isaiah Iton and Mayan Ahanotu were shoved around when VT wanted to:
And another a few plays later:
The PANCAKING that Iton receives there was one of the plays that earned him the cyan circle. Their run stuffs as a team in short yardage looked like this, great plays from the EDGEs/LBs/DBs helping out while the tackles are still being moved:
That's the starting duo again. None of the backups showed me any indication that they will be better. I know Michigan doesn't have Olu at center anymore but the guards are the same and so I think they should be able to have some success against those tackles, and force Rutgers to commit resources to stopping the run between the tackles which will leave them weaker elsewhere on defense.
What does this mean for Michigan?
This is the best defense the Wolverines will have faced this season without question, but they ain't exactly the 1985 Bears, like I've seen some try to say. Rutgers is an okay team; they aren't the Chris Ash Cable Subscribers anymore. They're not a good team and we need to remember that. In terms of Michigan's offense vs. Rutgers' defense, the Wolverines should have a clear advantage in the IOL vs. DT matchup and I love the possibility of what Roman Wilson could do against this defense when Rutgers blitzes and he gets opportunities to go one-on-one with a corner. That should be JJ's first read in those situations. Otherwise, give JJ a few reads to attack the EDGEs on the ground, roll him out a little bit, and then take what the zone gives you elsewhere. Play sound offense, don't turn it over, and you'll be fine in this game.
September 22nd, 2023 at 9:07 AM ^
I feel a little bad- you put a ton of work into this and I couldn't get past Cyan-J.J. Well done, sir.
(Schiano should get a star for his defensive coaching)
September 22nd, 2023 at 9:35 AM ^
No doubt. Alex is a tough critic. JJ has all of what, 7 int's in 2.xx seasons?
September 22nd, 2023 at 10:18 AM ^
Alex is trying to start some shit with that cyan around JJ. For sure. lol
September 22nd, 2023 at 11:07 AM ^
To be fair, Cyan JJ is Seth's doing--a stunt to which Brian put Seth up on the podcast. Don't blame poor Alex for the diagram Seth gave him! LOL
September 22nd, 2023 at 11:30 AM ^
This is just Voo Doo stuff to get JJ back on track.
Its a mix of changing your luck with a bit of slap in the face snap out of it.
Maybe we should have included the OTs to keep people off JJs ass.
September 22nd, 2023 at 1:28 PM ^
Like you UMQuadz, once I saw a cyan on JJ, the rest is somewhat hard to keep reading. (But if it works as reverse mojo, so be it.)
Question for Alex, if Corum fumbles a couple times this week, does he get a cyan around his shield and star?
September 22nd, 2023 at 9:25 AM ^
Since another commenter brought up the disparity in stars between offense and defense, has Loveland really done enough to deserve a star at this point? He's the third receiving option and at best he's a good blocker.
September 22nd, 2023 at 6:59 PM ^
Yeah, if Loveland is a star, so is Colson
September 22nd, 2023 at 9:28 AM ^
The cyan will never work if you still star him. Now you're just asking for an average of mediocrity! Gotta kill the star if you are testing the cyan effect!
September 22nd, 2023 at 10:19 AM ^
I took it to mean JJ is a boom or bust kind of guy from Alex's perspective. Nothing in-between.
September 22nd, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
I also doubt it works ironically. Seth has to believe in the cyan for it to work its magic.
September 22nd, 2023 at 9:36 AM ^
There's no way Cyan JJ could possibly turn things around and embark on a Heisman worthy season.
September 22nd, 2023 at 11:18 AM ^
We’ll probably not live to see a UM QB win a Heisman the way things are designed in AA.
September 22nd, 2023 at 11:57 AM ^
(I see what you're doing there)
Yep, Cyan JJ is doomed now. All picks, no TDs. Not even a touch of Zen under the goal post.
"Yea, I say unto thee, there is no peace for the Cyan." --Seth 45:23.
September 22nd, 2023 at 9:44 AM ^
A cyan-JJ, much like a craps table, lets hope he gets all these craps rolls (INTs) out of his system before the points are established. In this case, PSU, OSU, B1G Champ, SemiFinal and Final being the points.
September 22nd, 2023 at 9:50 AM ^
Hey hey Hey! Roman Wilson gets a STAR!
September 22nd, 2023 at 9:53 AM ^
Sounds like a good day for the OL to work on their blitz pickups, and for Michigan to hit some big plays when those blitzers don't get home.
September 22nd, 2023 at 10:15 AM ^
Apologies if I missed it elsewhere, is it confirmed that Henderson is starting at LT tomorrow?
September 22nd, 2023 at 12:01 PM ^
Might be wishful thinking, although I tend to agree that The Hinton Experience should probably go on the redshirt shelf at this point until 2024.
I'm really hoping we see Rod Moore soon. Maybe not this week. But soon.
September 22nd, 2023 at 2:23 PM ^
It confirmed, but Sam Webb was told that Henderson will get major play. Then Seth put together that he got put in front of the media, which is usually a signal that the player is starter.
September 22nd, 2023 at 10:17 AM ^
On the busted zone VT TD, isn’t that WR in the endzone blocking like an hour before the ball arrives. That was really awful, blatant offensive PI, no? Ridiculous. Made me laugh,
September 22nd, 2023 at 10:32 AM ^
Look for Roman!
September 22nd, 2023 at 10:40 AM ^
In bigger news, Roman Wilson FINALLY with the star I've been begging for for over a year now.
September 22nd, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^
I haven’t been shy about saying that Greg Schiano is one of the best game planners in the conference. Fully expect Rutgers to have something ready for us.
Given Jim Harbaugh’s return to the sidelines, the narrative of this game is going to be how much we insist on running even if the opponent stacks the box and leaves Roman Wilson 1-on-1 with a safety.
I would not be surprised if the first quarter ends with a 0-0 tie.
September 22nd, 2023 at 11:04 AM ^
Fully agree with you here. I dread the idea that we come out with the low variance, impose-your-will gameplan. To me, that approach is like taking the Ferrari to the grocery store.
September 22nd, 2023 at 11:24 AM ^
I wrote the Harbaughffense diaries a couple months ago, and I made the comment that Harbaugh deploys a passing game that’s remarkable only in its consistency. It is consistently mediocre, and had only really been above average one time, with Andrew Luck.
If Harbaugh doesn’t unleash the passing offense with JJ…I don’t think he ever will. We already know that the Harbaughffense lives and dies with the running game and kicking game, but dammit it shouldn’t take “NFL talent at every position” in order to cross the “eh, we’re decent” line.
September 22nd, 2023 at 11:46 AM ^
the Harbaughffense lives and dies with the running game and kicking game
Boy, that brings back memories of Tresselball.
September 22nd, 2023 at 2:24 PM ^
Yeah, but it got you a national title so…
September 22nd, 2023 at 3:49 PM ^
Yea...and a lot of closer-than-needed-to-be games, a lot of underutilized offensive skill players, a lot of 3s instead of 7s, a lot of frustrations of not taking care of business when they really could have...and a few times that resulted in losses that didn't need to be a loss.
But yea, there's always the good with the not-as-good.
September 22nd, 2023 at 12:46 PM ^
Came here to say this...Schiano should get the Star-Up Dangerman. Hate that guy but is he the 2nd best Xs & Os guy in the B10?
September 22nd, 2023 at 11:08 AM ^
Looks like a typo: "Rutgers has started the season 3-0 largely on the back of its offense"
September 22nd, 2023 at 11:09 AM ^
Important bounce-back game for JJ. Lots of opportunities for precision throws against quarters.
RBs missed a couple blocks last week; they'll need to be sharp against all those blitzers. Maybe some chip and release to Donovan on short routes that turn into big chunks?
If JJ is back to 80+% with NFL precision, does he go from "cyan" to shield in one week?
September 22nd, 2023 at 11:27 AM ^
Maybe he can be both???
Anyone remember Jamarcus Russell? If he had been part of FFFF, he would have deserved both.
I think Joe Milton could also be a cyan-and-shield QB.
JJ is probably not a cyan player going forward. But it’s fun to think about who - on any team - could be BOTH a trouble spot AND NFL-bound!
September 22nd, 2023 at 2:06 PM ^
Harbaugh's predicting 20 NFL-bound on this team. I have a heard time wrapping my mind around a "trouble-spot" who is an All American.
September 22nd, 2023 at 11:20 AM ^
JJ is both a danger man and a trouble spot per the graphic.
September 22nd, 2023 at 1:12 PM ^
I am amazed that people cannot get past the Cyan. Everyone agrees last game was an aberration and Seth simply added the cyan as a "reverse-jinx" so we can get back the old (games 1-2) JJ this week. Nothing beyond that people.
September 22nd, 2023 at 11:25 AM ^
What I'm more curious about is if Michigan plays Iowa in the B1G Championship, will Seth cyan Cade?
September 22nd, 2023 at 11:36 AM ^
Cade’s play so far has been uninspiring…but I’m pretty sure that this week he’s going to tie Petras’ entire last season’s worth of TD passes.
He’s also coming back from an entire year of injury rehab, reportedly semi-injured already, and playing in a new “system” where “ignoring your OC and calling the plays yourself” is a strategy he probably considers more and more seriously each passing day.
Tune into Iowatch! to track his progress (shameless plug for my diary series)
September 22nd, 2023 at 1:02 PM ^
Cade has 4 TDs, 3 INTs, and 6 sacks. That seems about where I'd expect him. When we had tight games or big games, he always seemed to make critical errors -- but the team was good enough to still steamrolled most opponents. Iowa isn't good enough to steamroll opponents, so his production in every game has been about a 50/50 mix of good and bad as they lean on him to make plays.
September 22nd, 2023 at 1:18 PM ^
I agree he's underwhelmed somewhat but I'd argue 2 of his 3 picks weren't particularly bad. One against ISU I happened to catch and was just the ISU defender pulling the Iowa receiver down and picking it off. It was a bit underthrown but I'm surprised that wasn't called. And the first pick against WMU was just an amazing one-handed pick by their LB. It wasn't a great throw but that turning into a pick and not just a PBU is mostly a great effort by the defender.
He's an average college QB but he's playing on a bad Iowa team and probably is scratching the ceiling of what a good QB can do with that talent and coaching.
September 22nd, 2023 at 11:46 AM ^
Colonel Henry, he fought against the aristocratic Brits.
September 22nd, 2023 at 1:10 PM ^
Yeah, their defense looks solid but the type of "solid" that gets worn down as the game progresses and they have to start chasing from behind. I suspect Michigan's tackles will struggle somewhat especially against Lewis and running will be more limited but I just don't buy Rutgers coming into Ann Arbor and really styming Michigan's offense to a significant degree provided UM doesn't turn the ball over a bunch or otherwise plays down to them.
September 22nd, 2023 at 2:00 PM ^
Embrace the Cyan
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