otter status: intrigued [Patrick Barron]

Covid Report: Return To Play Likely Comment Count

Brian September 14th, 2020 at 10:12 AM

Big Ten officials met over the weekend and, per about every college football reporter on Twitter, it's likely that the league will reinstate the season in short order.

October 17th is not set in stone but is the most likely date for a restart. That would apparently allow an eight-game schedule and a conference title game on December 19th, the day before the playoff field is announced. (How the playoff is going to deal with a conference that has played zero nonconference games is unknown.)

Rumors that some schools would choose to sit out are unfounded; all fourteen Big Ten schools will resume if any do.

[After THE JUMP: rapid testing]

The advent of rapid point-of-contact testing is the key:

The presidents and chancellors — all 14 of whom make up the ruling body of the Big Ten — heard presentations about medical advances, especially in the area of testing that have taken place since the league voted 11-3 to indefinitely delay the fall football season and other fall sports Aug. 11. The availability of rapid response tests has increased since the Big Ten voted to close the season down. That, sources said, is a key mover towards a restart.

The ability to quickly identify infected players and quarantine them—and only them—would allow an only slightly farcical season to go forward.

Without it you're looking at what's going on across college football, plotting campus case rates, and ruefully shaking your head. Virginia Tech has already seen season openers against first North Carolina State and then Virginia postponed. Oklahoma was missing several starters for its season opener against Missouri State. OU's coronavirus outbreak prompted Lincoln Riley to say his school would no longer release test results because doing so was a "competitive disadvantage." Memphis halted football activities after quarantining much of the team. A party bus is rumored to be involved. In the Big Ten, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Maryland have paused football workouts.

Rapid testing wouldn't prevent covid cases from knocking out key players. It would prevent the current situation where a few positive tests force teams to quarantine large swaths of a team or entirely shut down activity. Big Ten athletes would still be at risk for myocarditis, which may knock out 10-20% of players who come down with covid. The season is still going to be massively compromised.

But it'll exist.

Comments

TrueBlue2003

September 14th, 2020 at 1:47 PM ^

They're down an OL and their best CB, which is the same as M.  So that only levels them up with our opt outs and at best is a push.  Which brings us back to them probably being heavy favorites.  The only positive is that they won't have a full stadium?  Maybe less of a home field advantage? I'm going with that.  I'm always overly optimistic about The Game though.  Michigan can win that game.  So we'll see.  Hopefully it happens.

username03

September 14th, 2020 at 10:43 AM ^

The big ten always had the option to get test results back fairly rapidly. They could have quite easily set up on campus and gotten 384 test results in around 3 hours.

Carpetbagger

September 14th, 2020 at 4:35 PM ^

I've assumed they could get this done if they wanted, the lab tests aren't that time consuming, and most (not all) of these schools probably have their own labs. 

I also assume whatever reasoning they come up with is just handwavium bullcrap to cover their butts. With no evidence whatsover other than human nature, I'll bet they assumed all the conferences would cancel so their decision would never really be questioned. I'm sure in the wealthy elite educators bubble world they inhabit there was little discussion of whether to play, but only as to when to cancel.

Now that the other stakeholders have weighed in, they just have to find the proper excuses to get this going again, so it doesn't look any worse than it already is. I'm sure most of you will buy their explanation.

WGoNerd

September 14th, 2020 at 10:44 AM ^

On the one hand I miss Michigan Football desperately, on the other hand it seems like a generally bad idea to play football, or any sport, or have school open, etc right now.

mgokev

September 14th, 2020 at 10:45 AM ^

I feel like postponing games isn't setting the right incentive for teams to be healthy. If you can't (or refuse) to keep your team healthy through good protocols or responsible behavior, you should forfeit to the team that did the right thing and had the right protocols. Or, play with covid-free replacements or out-of-position players (e.g. move a FB to the DL) and get obliterated. 

Today, there's no punishment for having a loose protocol, it's just, like, "oopsies we haz too much covidz, we can play later?"

And, I recognize that this would motivate coaches to hide positive tests...this could be solved by an independent rapid tester pre-game. If you test positive, you can't play. If you can't field a team, you forfeit. This would lock shit up real quick, IMO. 

bklein09

September 14th, 2020 at 12:03 PM ^

What do you mean, you wonder what he is thinking now? He announced this morning. Like just a few hours ago. All the news about the vote today was already available to him when he posted his statement this morning. 

Are you implying that he didn't know of reports about an October start when he decided to opt out this morning??

mgobaran

September 14th, 2020 at 11:05 AM ^

Protecting my feels with a believe it when I see it attitude. Such a mix of emotions though

  • I want Michigan football. Other college football doesn't do it for me, and the Lions proved yesterday only pain lies ahead there.
  • Michigan/B1G made a smart choice to not have a fall season. Waiting till spring may still end up as the smart choice.
  • Michigan made a horrible decision to bring students to campus.
  • There is no reason that students can be on campus AND Michigan isn't playing football, so why cancel football at all?

johacket

September 14th, 2020 at 11:25 AM ^

I'm so conflicted.

Michigan football is really the only sport I'm emotionally invested in, and I want to see these kids have the opportunity to play something they've worked their entire lives for, in the safest way possible.

I already watch these games with a "please God don't let anyone get hurt" mentality, so with this added COVID-related element, these games are going to be stressful to watch.

I'm sure a lot of these kids have mixed emotions right now, wanting to showcase their talents, along with not wanting to possibly contract a lifelong cardiac condition, on top of all the physical risks that come along with playing football at this level.

My heart goes out to them and their families during these most uncertain times.

M Ascending

September 14th, 2020 at 11:35 AM ^

Quit feeling so sorry for football players.  What about the violinist at the UM School of Music who has dreams of playing for a major symphony orchestra, but is currently unable to play at Hill Auditorium or practice with the University orchestras? Same impact on their careers, but you don't see them and their parents pissing and moaning.  I am so over these coddled athletes and their sense of entitlement.

Brodie

September 14th, 2020 at 1:21 PM ^

Because doing what you suggest would require being intellectually honest about the weird, paternalistic way alumni and schools treat athletes and we'd all maybe question the foundations of this sport if we pursued this line of logic. Like it's only a small step from asking the question to having the realization that it's because, on some level, a lot of fans don't think the athletes belong at Michigan otherwise. 

AirForceBlue

September 14th, 2020 at 4:21 PM ^

Not a denier. Close family friend passed away from it unfortunately. I just believe in the freedom of choice and don’t need other people protecting me like I’m an incapable child. If you feel like you need that, then stay home. Players that want to play don’t need people that live In perpetual fear like you telling them they can’t.  If they want to opt out they have that ability.

AirForceBlue

September 14th, 2020 at 6:15 PM ^

That’s why you wear a mask and social distance when possible and reasonable. If we shouldn’t play football because it’s not safe should we not drive because people die? Where does the line get drawn. If you don’t want to go to games or play that’s fine I don’t begrudge you. If reasonable people look at the data and decide they want to live their lives let them. Stop trying to control everybody and make them live by your world views. 

lilpenny1316

September 14th, 2020 at 12:06 PM ^

Isn't the SEC going with a conference-only schedule? That will be less of an issue for the committee than dealing with a conference champ that plays fewer games than the other conferences.

uminks

September 14th, 2020 at 12:18 PM ^

If the season was going to be cancelled would we have had muppets instead of Henri? At least it gives Harbaugh a reason to keep practice going, testing and monitoring and keep the footbal players more isolated from the general student population. I wonder if the helmets can have full face shields attached? 

MGoStrength

September 14th, 2020 at 12:46 PM ^

Will be interesting to see how the schedule is created, but chances are UM has one of the more difficult schedules of potential contenders with likely games against OSU, PSU, Wiscy, & Minnesota.  But, at least Wade & Davis aren't playing.  Now if we can only convince Fields to sit out we may get somewhere.

bklein09

September 14th, 2020 at 1:16 PM ^

I'm pretty sure that's a large part of the reason. You don't see the Pac12 talking about a mid-October start right? 

The presidents voted 11-3 not to play one month ago. Yes, there have been some testing improvements, but the biggest driver of this is clearly OSU throwing their weight around. They want their Natty and Heisman, and they'll have a very good chance to get at least one of them if they start in October. (The Heisman seems unlikely with Fields playing a truncated season, but who are the other top candidates really?). 

So it sounds like 6 presidents were convinced to flip their vote so that we can watch OSU go 9-0, while racking up as many points as possible to ensure their playoff spot. Going to be a blast!