Covid Report: Return To Play Likely
Big Ten officials met over the weekend and, per about every college football reporter on Twitter, it's likely that the league will reinstate the season in short order.
Sources: Big Ten meeting has been productive in terms of medical plan and maintaining momentum toward playing this fall. Vote has not taken place yet; could still happen tonight or tomorrow. Some schools already setting practice schedules in preparation for October kickoff.
— Pat Forde (@ByPatForde) September 13, 2020
October 17th is not set in stone but is the most likely date for a restart. That would apparently allow an eight-game schedule and a conference title game on December 19th, the day before the playoff field is announced. (How the playoff is going to deal with a conference that has played zero nonconference games is unknown.)
Rumors that some schools would choose to sit out are unfounded; all fourteen Big Ten schools will resume if any do.
[After THE JUMP: rapid testing]
The advent of rapid point-of-contact testing is the key:
The presidents and chancellors — all 14 of whom make up the ruling body of the Big Ten — heard presentations about medical advances, especially in the area of testing that have taken place since the league voted 11-3 to indefinitely delay the fall football season and other fall sports Aug. 11. The availability of rapid response tests has increased since the Big Ten voted to close the season down. That, sources said, is a key mover towards a restart.
The ability to quickly identify infected players and quarantine them—and only them—would allow an only slightly farcical season to go forward.
Without it you're looking at what's going on across college football, plotting campus case rates, and ruefully shaking your head. Virginia Tech has already seen season openers against first North Carolina State and then Virginia postponed. Oklahoma was missing several starters for its season opener against Missouri State. OU's coronavirus outbreak prompted Lincoln Riley to say his school would no longer release test results because doing so was a "competitive disadvantage." Memphis halted football activities after quarantining much of the team. A party bus is rumored to be involved. In the Big Ten, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Maryland have paused football workouts.
Rapid testing wouldn't prevent covid cases from knocking out key players. It would prevent the current situation where a few positive tests force teams to quarantine large swaths of a team or entirely shut down activity. Big Ten athletes would still be at risk for myocarditis, which may knock out 10-20% of players who come down with covid. The season is still going to be massively compromised.
But it'll exist.
September 14th, 2020 at 10:40 AM ^
God, I don't know if it's my claustrophobia or what, but this gif always gives me severe diabetes and anxiety!
September 14th, 2020 at 10:49 AM ^
Perfect gif usage, end of thread...Bake Him Away Toys!
September 14th, 2020 at 12:45 PM ^
Mic drop
September 14th, 2020 at 1:44 PM ^
So THAT'S where Kevin Warren's been!
September 15th, 2020 at 10:54 AM ^
What a perfect gif for the moment. Well done sir!
September 14th, 2020 at 10:30 AM ^
Did they say if they're allowing spectators? Given the relatively low positivity rates in most of the B1G footprint, I don't think there's a huge public health risk to having football especially if this rapid contact testing is legit. You still have risk for the players and coaches, but I'm more inclined to let those people make the decision for themselves. If we let people into the stadiums, even at reduced capacity, I think that's a recipe for big outbreaks and super-spreader events.
September 14th, 2020 at 10:45 AM ^
Seeing the photos from FSU over the weekend, they absolutely should not allow fans.
September 14th, 2020 at 12:30 PM ^
The contrast between the Notre Dame and FSU crowds couldn't have been more stark. Some people want to take this seriously and hopefully preserve a season of some kind. Some don't.
September 14th, 2020 at 3:11 PM ^
I’m shocked by FSU fan behavior, especially with their reputation as the Harvard of the Panhandle....
September 14th, 2020 at 4:42 PM ^
Ask Myron Rolle!
September 14th, 2020 at 5:21 PM ^
I mean, Myron Rolle won a Rhodes Scholarship and is now a resident at Mass General. He got essentially everything he wanted out of FSU, good on the kid.
September 14th, 2020 at 10:16 PM ^
Woosh!
September 14th, 2020 at 6:41 PM ^
I live in the panhandle. They ain't no Havaad.
September 14th, 2020 at 10:55 AM ^
I hope none of the schools allow fans. It's luxury enough to get to play. I see no reason to put fans in the stands and introduce that much unnecessary risk. We can all watch on TV this year
September 14th, 2020 at 11:51 AM ^
Same - I want them to do it right and come back safely. Rates are starting to go down now in a few spots (even where I live in IA, but it's still high) but allowing fans is just pointless. I'm surprised the conferences left these decisions to the schools. It would be a silly and stupid risk to implement all these protocols and then allow tailgating fans into the games to create super-spreading events.
I agree that this season already feels 'massively compromised'. But,it's worth a cautious try and that emphatically means no fans.
September 14th, 2020 at 1:19 PM ^
While I understand the point lhglrkwg is making, I think allowing a percentage of fans along the lines of the "ND model" to attend would not introduce much risk to equation. If the goal is "zero risk" then yes, no fans. But nominal risk would be OK in my book - meaning I would personally be willing to go and cheer on the team. This coming from a person who tends towards the more cautious side of the COVID avoidance bell-shaped curve. Sitting in a cavernous stadium with plenty of social-distancing, masks(!), no bands and tubs of hand-sanitizer would not create a COVID hot-spot. Ingress and egress would clearly be a thing to resolve.
If fans follow the FSU model in disregarding the rules of attendance, then unfortunately they will need to be removed from the premises and their tickets revoked, and the tix offered to the next names on the list.
September 14th, 2020 at 10:32 AM ^
"Big Ten athletes would still be at risk for myocarditis, which may knock out 10-20% of players who come down with covid."
Am I misreading this in that potential B1G players who come down with Covid have a 10-20% risk of developing myocarditis complications?
And how does this myocarditis incident % compare against the rest of the population?
September 14th, 2020 at 10:45 AM ^
I do not believe the % is any different than the general public. The big issue is that the medical advice (per Mayo Clinic) with Myocarditis is that you avoid sports / rigorous exercise for 4-6 months — even in mild cases.
September 14th, 2020 at 10:54 AM ^
Yeah I'm not a member of PSU's faculty but from what I've read, I liken myocarditis to driving with worn-down treads. Despite being technically dangerous, if you take it easy, not a big deal. Worn-down treads probably aren't going to kill you if you're in bumper-to-bumper city traffic. But elite athletes do the exact opposite of taking anything easy. They're not going to lie in bed one second longer than they think they're obligated to, when the pressure of competition compels them to stress their bodies to breaking point. That's kinda bad for a physically damaged heart. #SpeedInSpace might as well be screaming down the freeway at 4AM in a rainstorm with tires balder than my shiny noggin.
The convenient thing is that they'll get to blame the patients, so footbaw's got that going for it.
September 14th, 2020 at 1:17 PM ^
This is the right analogy for this situation. And teams are inclined, obviously, to either not look too deeply into the tire quality or just tell everyone that the tires aren't that worn down anyway. It's why I'm dubious about all of these rapid testing protocols fundamentally changing how coaches and teams handle this disease; hell, we still have issues with teams ignoring concussion protocols when it serves their best interests.
September 14th, 2020 at 11:07 AM ^
it's still a really wide open question right now. I'm a family med/sports med doc and there is a lot of debate on what these cardiac MRI findings mean. Interestingly, one of the best sources for my info is one of the cardiologists at Michigan. There's some data out there that we may see these same cardiac MRI changes with other viral infections as well. We worry about long term damage to the heart and congestive heart failure (since we see this with other viruses) along with the wiring in the heart being damaged, but it's still just really unclear. https://twitter.com/venkmurthy
September 14th, 2020 at 11:12 AM ^
Just going through his threads and he's getting credit for possibly saving Big 10 football..
https://twitter.com/venkmurthy/status/1304952085939720192
September 14th, 2020 at 11:42 AM ^
Shouldnt President Trump be given a little credit. He was the one who called up Kevin Warren and started to get the ball rolling again. I know the Never Trumpers on here won't give him credit though.
September 14th, 2020 at 12:07 PM ^
Fuck off
September 14th, 2020 at 12:34 PM ^
Comments like these are not helpful. You don't tell someone to fuck off simply because their political beliefs differ from yours. You have a conversation like an adult or you move on.
September 14th, 2020 at 1:30 PM ^
Normally I'd agree, but these particular political beliefs deserve a fuck off. A rational conversation cannot be had, because there's nothing rational about supporting this administration.
September 14th, 2020 at 7:34 PM ^
Not a trump fan by any means, In fact i’ve yet to vote for any republican but people like you are exactly why he got elected and probably will again in November. People can support the administration for any number of rational reasons no matter if you or I disagree.
September 16th, 2020 at 4:12 PM ^
If you support a racist or someone who is clearly race-bating (at a minimum) for votes, that makes you a racist. Sorry, there is no gray area here on this fact....
If you support someone who lies about everything that makes you an enabler. Also, no gray area....
September 14th, 2020 at 9:55 PM ^
Normally I would just post the information that contradicts your opinion, but you sound like you are either a bad faith concern troll, or you have been asleep since 2012 or whenever the last time a presidential candidate called their opponent a "good man" was. Are you really not aware of the toxic, poisonous, hateful attitude that all Republicans seem to have toward Democrats these days?
https://www.google.com/search?q=fuck+your+feelings
September 14th, 2020 at 3:33 PM ^
Thanks for the maternal advice Mom. I'm sure that's going to stick with him his adult life.
Speaking of moving on if you disagree with a comment...sheesh.
September 15th, 2020 at 6:16 AM ^
Typically, sure. But there’s some people you simply CAN’T have a good faith conversation with. They either don’t want it, or don’t have the capacity for it. Thinking Trump had ANYTHING to do with this, or his conversation with Warren (who has no say in whether the season is played or not) played a part is simply ignorant to the realities of the situation.
Trump blew the political trumpet. “Let’s put my name here in an issue going on in swing states. If the outcome is good, I can take the credit. If the outcome is bad, I can turn around and blame the liberals.” Notice how he hasn’t said a damn thing regarding the PAC12? Played mostly in major blue states? If you can’t see what he’s doing by now, as it’s been covered extensively, then there’s really no talking to that person. Period. They’re not interested in a good faith conversation and I’m not interested in wasting my time talking with someone who isn’t interested in a good faith conversation.
September 14th, 2020 at 12:07 PM ^
Talk about a cult of personality. Scary.
September 14th, 2020 at 12:08 PM ^
Regardless of whether he deserves credit, I'm sure he'll take credit.
September 14th, 2020 at 12:24 PM ^
no. fucking. way.
he's the biggest reason we're even having this conversation. if he'd taken it seriously in march we'd be talking about week 2.
September 14th, 2020 at 2:06 PM ^
March?! You mean Feb. 7?!
The delay cost an estimated 75K additional lives, untold personal financial losses, and in what may just turn out to be the biggest ramification, split this country worse than it was, revealing that even science was a political football!
So, no I don't think I'll be praising 45 for this. Y'all do what ya want tho!
September 14th, 2020 at 2:59 PM ^
Bob Woodward makes it clear that Trump was briefed of the dire nature of this virus in late January, before anyone knew how bad it really was.. This is corroborated by his taped interview in early February. He knew all the things we eventually learned over the coming months...how it was at least 5X as deadly as the flu, and how it spreads through the air.
If the goal was to not cause a panic he fucking failed because the country panicked the moment we realized it was here spreading and nothing was being done. The stock market - the thing he was probably worried most about when he said he "didn't want to cause a panic" - well, it panicked. It dropped so bad that it wiped out a decade of gains. Granted it recovered, but that's another topic of shittiness from the federal government and our deep-rooted systemic problems in this country (it's so fucking perverse how many billionaires have continued to attain wealth while the middle and lower classes bear the brunt of this pandemic, with all government assistance now expired and NOTHING on the horizon for the many millions still left out of work).
September 15th, 2020 at 6:18 AM ^
I find it ironic that a guy who has molded his entire presidency around causing/exploiting fear and panic would claim he didn’t want to cause a panic as his defense.
September 14th, 2020 at 12:28 PM ^
That's a hard no. I wish I had more than one downvote to give.
September 14th, 2020 at 12:29 PM ^
So Kevin Warren threw together a Return to Competition Committee immediately following the call with Trump and they were able to get all of the college Presidents to suddenly change their minds because of it in less than one week?
Seriously? Do you actually believe this or must everything be skewed to justify your political beliefs? What did Warren tell the leaders of 14 universities spread out from the east coast to the midwest? "Hey guys, the President called and he's really mad. He really want's us to play. Could you please reconsider your vote?"
Or...and I know this is crazy....there has been a Return to Competition Committee working for weeks. In the past two weeks there were announcements from the Pac12, Big12 and Nebraska on rapid testing capability. Peer institutions have proceeded with playing football putting pressure on the Big Ten to take part also. Could it possibly be, this is what drove the Presidents to rethink their original decision?
September 14th, 2020 at 12:29 PM ^
user name definitely checks out.
September 16th, 2020 at 4:16 PM ^
soo good!
September 14th, 2020 at 12:48 PM ^
I won’t be giving the draft dodger who thinks my dad and the millions of Americans who served in Vietnam are a bunch of suckers any credit.
September 14th, 2020 at 3:38 PM ^
Same here man...well said!
September 14th, 2020 at 1:02 PM ^
Lots of TDS on this board. WOW!
September 14th, 2020 at 2:09 PM ^
Trust us, there is zero derangement in our syndrome!
There is a massive amount in believing anything he says ever! Even after the Woodward tapes you can't admit it tho.
That's why it's a cult! Cult45
September 14th, 2020 at 3:46 PM ^
Perhaps he should be focused on preventing the next 200,000 deaths instead of grandstanding over college football in states he needs to win.
September 14th, 2020 at 1:03 PM ^
Dude, the ball hadn't stopped rolling. Where have you been the past month? ADs and coaches doing press conferences, parents protesting, the return to competition committee hadn't stopped meeting.
When they shut down, the big ten figured everyone else was seeing the same medical information and would follow suit. When that didn't turn out to be the case, it was inevitable they'd return to play. Can't sit out while other conferences and even high schools are playing.
They just needed the medical community to reassure them that the initial myocarditis fears were both addressable and not nearly as severe as they feared, which was also inevitable because they made a knee jerk decision initially with incomplete info.
Had zero to do with Trump.
September 14th, 2020 at 1:44 PM ^
Damn it Boner! You should listen to your good friend, Mike Seaver. Actually, never mind.
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