Should Mattison get a pass for DEBACLE?
I know we have been piling up on Borges, but I don't think Mattison should get a free pass for THE DEBACLE.
Before the game, the common mantra for defense was to utilize blitz to break the true frosh QB under pressure. However, at least for the first half, blitzes were few and far between, resulting in most of the touchdowns that PSU scored during the regular time.
Just how bad of an idea is it to NOT blitz against Heck? Here are the numbers.
| Rush | Count | Completion % | Avg Yards | TD Allowed | Sacks | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Three | 5 | 60% | 15.7 | 2 | 0 | 9.4 |
| Four | 34 | 50% | 13.2 | 1 | 1 | 6.6 |
| Five | 11 | 63.6% | 2.9 | 0 | 3 | 1.8 |
| Six | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
As you can see from above, the old adage is correct - the freshman QB does not handle pressure well. When we brought five or more, we were able to bring havoc (3 sacks) and limit YPA (less than 2!). But we only brought pressure only 1/5 of the time. What would have happened if that ratio was more like 50%?
Even worse, when we stepped off the gas and rushed three, Heck was able to complete passes for big yardage (9.4 YPA) and threw most of his touchdowns.
I just don't understand why we would give a freshman QB time to throw, ESPECIALLY when they are in the red zone. If Mattison brought the pressure from the get go, we don't allow 21 points to start off. How different this game would have been if we were ahead by 1 or down by only 3 going into the half?
Mattison blew it. We had a chance to completely dominate PSU, and we decided not to.
October 18th, 2013 at 6:52 AM ^
Mattison gets a pass from me although there are things that still bother me with the defensive philosophy. I for one love defenses that are really agressive. I think GMAT doesn't believe our corners are good enough to play man cvg against most of our opponents, before Countess got injured he played a fair bit of man cvg. I know he says they are protecting our safeties and don't want to give up the big play but watching mediocre teams Bill Walsh us to death is frustrating. I would like to see our CB's try to disrupt (press) the WRs quite a bit more. Going forward I would definitely like us to blitz more and not tip our hand as much.
Bottom line is ever since Hoke/Mat/Borges have been here the defense has been worlds better than the offense .... every year.
October 18th, 2013 at 7:00 AM ^
I give him a pass. On the last 80 yard bomb fest, you could argue they should have blitzed. But you could also argue the Mattison's strategy put the players in a position to win, but for some incredible throws and catches, a little execution error on the defenders and some bad luck. It wasn't luck the receivers were wide open after the QB stood in the pocket for extended period of time. The completions were made in tight windows with multiple defenders nearby.
October 18th, 2013 at 7:23 AM ^
October 18th, 2013 at 7:29 AM ^
October 18th, 2013 at 7:35 AM ^
You're right: that was a tremendous DEBACLE. I couldn't believe what a let down I was seeing considering the talent on the roster, but not everything can be blamed on him. He doesn't even coach for the Tigers.
October 18th, 2013 at 7:39 AM ^
October 18th, 2013 at 7:57 AM ^
YES! He's the best defensive coordinator in the land fergodssakes!
October 18th, 2013 at 8:20 AM ^
Absolutely not!!! The expectation is for the position. Besides, this soft D, this play-not-to-lose "prevent" D has been a pattern all year!!! He barely blitzes!!! He looks like an old man!!! He draws too many ideas from the NFL and doesn't realize those don't work in college these are kidz put your players in a position to succeed!!! He's on notice!!! Look at how much he's bounced around in college Michigan ND Florida now Michigan again he can't keep a job!!!
No free lunches!!! No pass for Mattison or the Dline coach neither!!!
October 18th, 2013 at 8:46 AM ^
If you read the defensive UFR the defense was +45.5. Awesome defense right? They gave up 43 points against a freshman QB.
I'm not on the fire Mattison bandwagon but those who do not see this defense performance as a failure have some Mattison colored glasses on.
By contrast, the offense, which scored 33, has a -49 aggregate UFR.
I wish these numbers would be normalized for the number of plays so they could be more meaningful in intergame performance evaluations. LSAClassof2000, I'm assigning this to you.
October 18th, 2013 at 9:31 AM ^
This isn't precisely what you wanted, but I thought I might share it - I calculated the standardized values for yards allows, number of plays and and yards allowed per play the other day:
| GAME | YARDS | PLAYS | YPP ALLOWED |
| CMU | 210 | 57 | 3.68 |
| ND | 420 | 72 | 5.83 |
| AKRON | 418 | 79 | 5.29 |
| UCONN | 206 | 41 | 5.02 |
| MINN | 281 | 62 | 4.53 |
| PSU | 390 | 89 | 4.38 |
| MEAN | 320.83 | 66.67 | 4.79 |
| STD. DEV. | 92.30 | 15.56 | 0.69 |
| STANDARDIZED VALUES | |||
| GAME | YARDS | PLAYS | YPP ALLOWED |
| CMU | -1.20 | -0.62 | -1.60 |
| ND | 1.07 | 0.34 | 1.51 |
| AKRON | 1.05 | 0.79 | 0.73 |
| UCONN | -1.24 | -1.65 | 0.34 |
| MINN | -0.43 | -0.30 | -0.37 |
| PSU | 0.75 | 1.44 | -0.59 |
Now, before the PSU game, we were averaging 62.2 plays on defense per game, so if we wanted to guess with a simple ratio (which, take this for what it is worth - not the best way to do it, I would think), then that number of plays and the yards per play allowed would put us in the neighborhood of 272.6 yards for the game. It would make some sense given that the z-value of the number of plays for PSU was 1.44.
October 18th, 2013 at 9:34 AM ^
Give a freshman 6 possessions starting in field goal range, he'll put up some points. Hell, give ANYONE 6 possessions starting in field goal range, and they'll put up points.
October 18th, 2013 at 9:47 AM ^
No doubt, but 4 of those are OT possessions right? And they scored 9 points in OT? That's still a lot of points allowed.
October 18th, 2013 at 10:00 AM ^
But 14 of their points came on the other two gimmies... plus they held Penn State to 9 points in four overtime possessions. And Penn State had incentives to score touchdowns in every overtime, unlike Michigan's two, "welp, a field goal wins it here, so whatevs" drives.
October 18th, 2013 at 10:16 AM ^
So great defensive performance then? I'm mean, the reason I asked LSA to do the normalization was to see how much of the +45 is due to the increased # of defensive snaps (89 vs ~50 last week). Some of that +45 has to be due to plays made in overtime, but some of it also has to be on plays that should have never have happened because the defense couldn't get off the field. The same goes for the -49 on offense. To the unwashed, looking at a -49/+45.5 off/def UFR should mean a terrible game by the offense and a tremendous game by the defense. The score is not representative of that grade, regardless of the POTs.
October 18th, 2013 at 10:23 AM ^
There were way more opportunities than in, say, the Minnesota game, so the absolute numbers are going to be potentially much larger (both positive and negative). I can't math, so I leave that to those who can. but the offense had a big negative going into OT, and the defense had a big positive going into OT.
October 18th, 2013 at 11:43 AM ^
There's a Fire Mattison bandwagon? Tha Fuck is goin' on around here lately?!?!?!?!
October 18th, 2013 at 8:48 AM ^
October 18th, 2013 at 8:49 AM ^
You missed Brookens.
October 18th, 2013 at 8:59 AM ^
Fire Chuck Daley & Sparky Anderson.
October 18th, 2013 at 8:52 AM ^
We are not perfect and we're working hard and recruiting very well.
Some positivity can go a long way. Everybody posting (bitching) about our coaching/play can take a breath and relax. Bottom line is it's still a very young team making a transition. These things take time and there will be growing pains.
The amount of negativity coming out of this site is making me nauseous. I'm concerned we have recruits going thru all this BS. "Fire Borgess!" "Is Greg Mattison a good coach? & "Does Greg Mattison get a pass?" Etc... Enough is enough.
Michigan is 5-1! We have some top level young players learning, proud Seniors playing hard, and some great recruits coming in. Let's get back to SUPPORTing Michigan and some positivity!
Go Blue and Beat IU!
October 18th, 2013 at 8:56 AM ^
October 18th, 2013 at 9:07 AM ^
October 18th, 2013 at 9:31 AM ^
But they play hard and will have errors. There isn't a perfect defense in this world. Some will make a claim for MSU but I think they play more physical than Michigan. Michigan has a great coach in Mattison. So if he makes a mistake, so be it. But Michigan is always in a position to win, and the players have to push through adverstity.
The issue I have is the middle of the field. Would someone please close that leak! It's wide open all the time, and if I see it, every offensive coordinator sees it!
October 18th, 2013 at 9:43 AM ^
has proven himself in college and the NFL. There is no question that he and Hoke completely turned this defense around when they arrived. Add to this the incredible recruiting and its a no brainer that GM is a difference maker.
MSU simply plays tight man to man on your wideouts (and HOLDS about 80% of the time) and the then sends the blitz about 80% of time. Its pressure, pressure, pressure .. all the time which is a great defensive call against a team that can't run and likes to throw 30 yard pass routes. Good thing our OC never calls plays like that /S
October 18th, 2013 at 9:46 AM ^
October 18th, 2013 at 9:54 AM ^
Mattison doesn't get a pass, because he doesn't NEED a pass. A pass implies that he did something wrong, and that we (in our benevolent and omnipotent wisdom) opted to ignore those shortcomings. Here, I think Mattison did an absolutely fine job given the circumstances.
If you want to ask, if he should have blitzed more, that's a fair debate. I was comfortable with the ratio, but that's cool. But you can't make a ceteris paribus assumption that those yards-per-play numbers would have stayed the same if the percentages had increased. If you blitz on every snap, the offense adjusts to that. If you bring it out occasionally/selectively, it's obviously going to be more effective at getting home.
October 18th, 2013 at 10:08 AM ^
We should only run the sack plays on defense and the touchdown plays on offense.
October 18th, 2013 at 10:37 AM ^
October 18th, 2013 at 11:40 AM ^
October 18th, 2013 at 1:14 PM ^
Kick it where you want to and tackle guys from the other team who catch kicks before they run far.
October 18th, 2013 at 12:41 PM ^
October 18th, 2013 at 10:22 AM ^
Everyone is so focused on the PSU game. But, there seems to be a larger issue that I haven't seen discussed much. That is, what happens to this team on the road? I get it is harder to play in a road environment, but some of the big stinkers away from home ('13 PSU, '11 MSU and '12 OSU to name a few), seem to deviate negatively from the norm much more than can be explained simply from being on the road.
October 18th, 2013 at 10:38 AM ^
Can we please put these kinds of things as comments in already-existing threads like the Defense UFR rather than starting new threads? All these re-hasing threads are clogging up the Board.
October 18th, 2013 at 10:36 AM ^
Those 3/4 man rushes were a disaster. We don't have the personnel to stay in coverage if the QB has unlimited time, and since we can't rush with 3 or 4, he is going to have unlimited time...
October 18th, 2013 at 10:57 AM ^
why the hell are people down voting the poster for brining up a great point. Mattison D gave up a ton of points to a sub-average team with a true FR QB. He definitely should be shouldering some of the blame. I think we have the playmakers on D to be a dominate defense, but for some reason the coaches keep them held back with conservative calls. LET IT FLY!
October 18th, 2013 at 10:55 AM ^
Our offense obviously isn't what we had hoped it would be. So, that means our defense needs to REALLY step up. Our D is infinitly better when we bring heat. So, why aren't we doing it more. The play that sticks out to me was in the first QTR when we rushed 3 guys inside of our own 10. WTH was that play call, awful. Here on out we need to keep the heat coming on a more consistant basis.
October 18th, 2013 at 10:55 AM ^
It's not a coincidence that the year after he bolted from Michigan to Notre Dame for the same position our defense was the best in the country. We introduced more blitz packages, especially zone blitzes. He comes from the conservative school of bend, don't break. That works when you have the superior athletes on the field. When you don't, you need to be creative and mix things up a bit more.
October 18th, 2013 at 11:01 AM ^
October 18th, 2013 at 12:08 PM ^
It comes down to Hoke being way too conservative this year...forcing Borges to run power and limiting Mattison to not blitz as much...the first 2 years Hoke seemed like Moeller in the gamble arena...now he seems like Bo...I'll take Moeller all day
October 18th, 2013 at 12:28 PM ^
October 18th, 2013 at 12:55 PM ^
October 18th, 2013 at 1:33 PM ^
October 18th, 2013 at 1:26 PM ^
Losing at PSU isn't a crime, and doesn't deserve a nickname like "The DEBACLE."
I don't think fans who bail on the coaching staff over one loss deserve a "free pass."
October 18th, 2013 at 1:34 PM ^
October 18th, 2013 at 2:17 PM ^
I don't think anyone should be above criticism for what transpired in Happy Valley. With 8 minutes to go in the game UM had a 34-24 lead. PSU had 2 possessions after that and scored 10 pts to send the game into OT. Offense, defense and special teams all need to shoulder some of the blame.
October 18th, 2013 at 3:27 PM ^
Mattison gets a free pass in my opinion. Unlike Borges, Mattison did make halftime adjustments. We did dial up the heat in the second half. I could easily see a bend but don't break philosophy verses a young QB predicated on waiting for him to make a mistake. So a short field did not give the bend but don't break philosophy a chance. Mattison adjusted.
Pretty much all of the experts who post to the blog site have agreed the defense used on the last drive in regulation was the right one. A teams gotta go 80 yards in 50 seconds. The risk of pressure is less useful since it increases the odds of a big play the other direction also. The reality is PSU's best player made an amazing catch that probably would not happen if you reran the play 100 times again.
Prior to the last regulation drive the defense had outscored PSU 7 to 6 in the second half. So that is telling me that Mattison's adjustments were working. Then in OT we thwart PSU 3 times. That should be good enough to win. If you told me PSU's chances to score a TD was 25% and a FG 50% for OT, I would say I like my odds of winning.
Offense does a third of what they were supposed to and we are not having this conversation.
October 18th, 2013 at 5:39 PM ^
when you look at PSU's drives and yards over the course of the game. All but one of PSU's most successful drives in terms of number of plays and yardage occured from mid-third quarter on. Part of that was due to the short fields they were presented with in the first half but from the 8:50 mark of the 3rd quarter, PSU had the ball 4 more times in regulation (not counting the knee they took on the last play of regulation). Those 4 drives were:
10 plays, 50 yards, FG
10 plays, 45 yds, missed FG
12 plays, 49 yards, FG
5 plays, 80 yds, TD
Once UM cut the lead to 21-20, the defense wasn't able to force PSU to punt once. All 4 times PSU got the ball, they moved the ball against UM's defense and either scored points or had an opportunity to score points.
October 19th, 2013 at 6:47 AM ^
October 18th, 2013 at 4:10 PM ^
I don't think he trusts the secondary to give up guys on the blitz. Team speed is a problem.
October 18th, 2013 at 4:28 PM ^
I would have liked to see him dial up a few blitzes as well, but the defense was not at fault this game. Here are Penn States Touchdown Drives:
- 14 yards
- 20 yards
- 61 yards
- 80 yards (final drive of regulation)
- 25 yard (4th overtime in which PSU requried a 4th down conversion to score)
That's only 2 drives that PSU actually had good drives resulting in Touchdowns. You can't blame the first two on the defense as borges and the offense put them in a big hole. The 4th overtime sucked, but we had held them to a field goal or nothing in the first 3 overtimes. The defense gave us EVERY oppurtunity to win. The offense just couldn't take advantage.
The defense forced 4 turnovers. Held PSU to 3-16 on 3rd down conversions. Held PSU to 1.9 yards per rush and Penn St.
How could people even think about blaming Mattison? Just remember 27 yards on 27 attempts. No bubble screens. Delay of game penalties.