Big Ten Tournament Seeding Scenarios (updated after Wisc/MSU)
colorful - and if I really stare at it, I see a 3-D dinosaur in an F-14.
Each row is one of the 32 possible combinations that can occur. For a given row, the first five columns are winners of the remaining games and the last five columns are the Big Ten tournament seed each team would get in that scenario.
So we basically have a 75% chance to not be a 5 seed assuming all games are a 50/50 chance.
We basically need Wisconsin or MSU to lose their remaining 2 games, or we need to beat Indiana to be ensured a 4 or better.
Seeding probabilities for Michigan (assuming every game is 50/50 and independent):
1st: 0/32 = 0%
2nd: 6/32 = 18.75%
3rd: 8/32 = 25%
4th: 10/32 = 31.25%
5th: 8/32 = 25%
Overall expected seed: (0/32)(1) + (6/32)(2) + (8/32)(3) + (10/32)(4) + (8/32)(5) = 3.625
Overall expected seed of other teams:
Indiana: (27/32)(1) + (3/32)(2) + (2/32)(3) + (0/32)(4) + (0/32)(5) = 1.21875
Wisconsin: (4/32)(1) + (6/32)(2) + (5/32)(3) + (5.5/32)(4) + (11.5/32)(5) = 3.453125
Michigan: (0/32)(1) + (6/32)(2) + (8/32)(3) + (10/32)(4) + (8/32)(5) = 3.625
Michigan State: (0/32)(1) + (3/32)(2) + (8/32)(3) + (9/32)(4) + (12/32)(5) = 3.9375
Simple logic isn't really your strong point, Teddy.
Basically, if we lose Sunday, odds are us being the 5... I just don't see Wisconsin losing to Penn State or Staee losing to NW
"The thing about Wisconsin, is that they can beat anyone and also lose to anyone."
I think that goes for us as well.
Very nice to see this all in one spot. We can't get the 1 seed no matter what, but it seems like our most realistic shot at the 2 is for MSU to beat Wisco and Illinois to beat OSU, with us beating Indiana obviously. I think MSU will win tonight, so asuming we beat Indiana, it all comes down to Illinois upsetting OSU @ OSU. Possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.
UM needs to take care of business against IU, because it would take a big upset in the other games for UM to get the first round bye (either NW would have to beat Sparty, or PSU would have to beat Wisky).
I hate the fact that I have to root for Staee in these scenarios.
it will bother Staee to no end that their winning will work to our benefit.
Why use words when pictures can explain it all? Thanks for your work.
and then everyone can stop whining k thx
When it's been discussed in basically every thread on here, including showing that grid? But actually having the grid up at the top of a dedicated post is a good idea just to prevent people asking the question a thousand times today.
if we beat IU? :)
Basically: beat Indiana, or get a 4 or 5 seed.
Thanks for the post. No sarcasm.
I don't understand why we can't be the #1 seed? someone please explain...why does Indiana get the tiebreaker
If Michigan ties IU for first, IU wins every tie-breaker. Head to head is even at 1-1, so they move to record against third place team, then fourth place team, etc. Both are 0-1 againt Wisconsin, both are 1-1 against OSU, but IU is 2-0 vs MSU and Michigan is 1-1. So they get the higher seed.
Same principle if there is a third or fourth team involved with the tie for first. Michigan just can't get past IU based on tie-breakers.
Gotcha! That's some shit
I think the fact that they're 1-1 against Wisconsin, we're 0-1. They're winning percentage would obviously be better than ours against them.
It amazes me that the most likely team for the #1 not named Indiana is Wisconsin. WTF?!?!?!
damn hail mary 3 <grumble><grumble><grumble>
2013 B1G Tourney Seed Determination Inputs
TEAM | GM2 | GM1 | IU | UM | OSU | MSU | WIS | MN | ILL | IA | PU |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#2 Indiana | -- | @UM | -- | 1-0 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
#7 Michigan | -- | IU | 0-1 | -- | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
#14 Ohio State | -- | ILL | 1-1 | 1-1 | -- | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
#10 Michigan State | WIS | NW | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | -- | 1-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 2-0 |
#22 Wisconsin | @MSU | @PSU | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 0-1 | -- | 1-1 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
Blue indicates a game remaining
http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/100606aae.html
Wiscy would be 3-1 in the four team round robin
Thanks for the info. Am I still allowed to despise everything about the way they play the game?
OSU & Wiscy tied for fourth place below a three-way UM-IU-MSU tie can be explained as follows:
Rule 1: OSU & Wiscy split their games against each other.
Rule 2.Step 1: Against the first place finishers, OSU would be 3-3; Wiscy 2-2
Rule 2.Step 2: The next comparison would be against the seventh place finisher(s), Illinois (a given in this scenario), and Minny & Iowa provided each win over @Purdue and Nebraska, respectively.
OSU would be 0-2 against Illinois, versus 2-0 for Wiscy
Minny & Iowa joining the tie would both help OSU, but not enough to catch Wiscy.
Against that three-way group for sixth place, Wiscy would be 4-2 while OSU 2-2.
Maybe the chart was created before Minny lost to Almeida Sauce and the Huskers last night? Before the loss, Minny had a chance to take sixth all by themselves at 10-8.
It was. Wisconsin should win that 4/5 tiebreaker with OSU now that Minnesota lost to the Huskers.
We are either going to have a bye or a first round game that we will undoubtedly win, a quarter-final against a Minnesota-ish team that we should beat but ya never know, a semi-final against a really good team with a 50 % chance of victory, and with a victory, a death match against Indiana (or possibly OSU but unlikely) in the BIG touney final.
"first round game that we will undoubtedly win"
Well we are 1-1 against Penn State, so I think there would be a bit of doubt there.
as it stands right now, I would believe we could beat the Pistons and we could also lose to Pioneer HS.
I also have doubts about beating PSU because...well...nm
But I also have to correct you on the next line. A likely scenario is MSU in the quarters (4-seed vs 5-seed assuming favorites win 1st round)...there no easy scenarios here. Assuming victory on Sunday is unwise. I hope for the best but we will be playing a great team.
I would like to get some revenge off Wisky...but those games are painful to watch
If MSU wins tonight then it looks like Indiana is the 1 seed.
It seems like every time I want State to win, they lose. They are just useless.
And then they celebrate having ruined your day.
An old Russian joke tells the story of a peasant with one cow who hates his neighbor because he has two. One day the peasant found an old bottle next to his single cow. He opened the bottle up and out came a genie. The genie thanked him for letting him out and told the peasant that he would be granted one wish.
The peasant thought about it for a moment, and then responded, "I wish that both of my neighbor's cows would die".
So you're saying that if given the chance MSU would wish our cows to die so they could have the only cow?
For some odd reason I think that joke fits perfectly on so many levels.
...a 2 or 3 seed.