Big Ten Tournament

I wanted to give a quick update to my post from yesterday as the Iowa/Nebraska and Purdue/Minnesota games are over and things are much clearer.

With Iowa's win, they have locked up the #6 seed. With Minnesota's loss, they have locked up the #9 seed (That's pretty bad for a team that was once ranked in the top 10). If Illinois beats OSU tomorrow, they will be the #7 seed with Purdue the #8 seed. If OSU beats Illinois, you can swap those two teams because Purdue will have the tiebreaker over both Illinois and Minnesota.

Assuming Michigan wins tomorrow...

If OSU beats Illinois, #3 Michigan will play the winner of #6 Iowa vs. #11 NW

If Illinois beats OSU, #2 Michigan will play the winner of #7 Illinois vs. #10 Nebraska

Here's a look at the remaining possibilities for tournament seeding:

(Click to englarge)

Now that that's out of the way, what are you drinking? Hey, did you guys know that Stauskas isn't just a shooter? DRINK.

Sorry if some find this repetitive, but we're at the point where we can pinpoint exactly how the remaining games will affect our seeding.

If we beat Indiana, only the Illinois/OSU game matters. If we lose to Indiana, only the PSU/Wisconsin game matters.

Chart

UPDATE: Times for the remaining games (thanks to user turd ferguson)

Wisconsin @ Penn State
12pm, Sunday (BTN)

Illinois @ Ohio State
12:30pm, Sunday (ESPN)

Indiana @ Michigan
4pm, Sunday (CBS)

via umhoops - Updated after Wisconsin/MSU

Since Indiana just lost to OSU tonight, I was wondering what the Big Ten Tournament seedings could be. This is the schedule for the remaining Big Ten conference games and the winners of each game in my completely subjective opinion:

Wednesday 3/6

Michigan @ Purdue

Minnesota @ Nebraska

Thursday 3/7

Wisconsin @ Michigan State

Penn State @ Northwestern

Saturday 3/9

Minnesota @ Purdue

Nebraska @ Iowa

Sunday 3/10

Indiana @ Michigan

Northwestern @ Michigan State

Illinois @ Ohio State

Wisconsin @ Penn State

This would result in a 4-way tie atop the conference between Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State. According to the tiebreaking procedures from last year's tournament, the seeding would work out as follows:

Here is the 2013 Big Ten Tournament bracket. In the scenario I described, Michigan would be playing the winner of Minnesota vs Nebraska. If I made a mistake, please correct me.

EDIT: Fixed. I think UM would be the 3 seed by virtue of losing the comparison to OSU against Wisconsin.

This is my breakdown of different possibilities for where Michigan will end up being seeded in the B1G tournament. I believe that Michigan has eliminated themselves from #1 seed contention. The top 5 teams will be the top 5 seeds in the tournament. If Michigan wins out, I believe that the lowest they can be seeded is #4.

The most important games are going to be the ones between the top 5 teams. Those are Michigan vs. Indiana, OSU vs. Indiana, and MSU vs. Wisconsin. To make this a bit simpler, I assume that Michigan wins out, so this will look at the different permutations of the latter two. Furthermore, this also assumes that the top 5 will win any matchups against bottom 7 teams. Any upsets in that regard, will still have Michigan in the top 4, and probably the top 3.

Indiana beats OSU, MSU beats Wisconsin

1. Indiana (4 losses)
2. Michigan (5 losses, win over Indiana)
3. MSU (5 losses)
4. Wisconsin (6 losses, win over Indiana)
5. OSU (6 losses)

Indiana beats OSU, Wisconsin beats MSU

1. Indiana (4 losses)
2. Wisconsin (5 losses, head-to-head over Michigan)
3. Michigan (5 losses)
4. TBD (MSU/OSU tiebreaker will be record against lower seeded teams)
5. TBD

OSU beats Indiana, MSU beats Wisconsin

1. Indiana (5 losses, 4-2 against tied teams)
2. OSU (5 losses, 3-3 against tied teams, 1-1 against Wisconsin)
3. Michigan (5 losses, 3-3 against tied teams, 0-1 against Wisconsin)
4. MSU (5 losses, 2-4 against tied teams)
5. Wisconsin (6 losses)

OSU beats Indiana, Wisconsin beats MSU

1. Wisconsin (5 losses, 3-1 against tied teams)
2. OSU (5 losses, 3-3 against tied teams)
3. Indiana (5 losses, 2-3 against tied teams, 2-0 against MSU)
4. Michigan (5 losses, 2-3 against tied teams, 1-1 against MSU)
5. MSU

In any of these cases, we miss the extra game with the 5-seed, but the 4 seed looks almost as bad with the path to winning having to go through 3 of the top 5 teams. The only place where that appears to happen is with OSU and Wisconsin winning their games. We'd likely have to play MSU, Wiscsonsin, Indiana/OSU. Brutal.

Other than that, we will have the 2 or 3 seed (again this is assuming we win out). There isn't a whole lot of difference between those two. I mean, you're looking at Illinois or Minnesota then the 2 or 3 seed. In terms of the teams that I'd like to play, I'd have to say I'd like another shot at Wisconsin, partly for redemption and partly because I think they are the easiest for us to beat. That path involves OSU and MSU losing their big games.

Conclusion: Root for Michigan, against OSU, and against MSU, just like you want to.

Edit: As others have mentioned, this does not take into account winning a share of the B1G championship. For that, we need OSU to be Indiana. If that happens, then we probably want MSU to beat Wisconsin for seeding purposes. OSU and Wisconsin winning gives us 3 games against the top 5 whereas the other 3 scenarios give us 2 games against the top 5. Taking both the championship and the tournament into account, root for OSU and for MSU to do whatever OSU ends up doing.

It's Friday, so for those watching the games at work or at home, let's discuss.

Edit: For those interested

12:00 > MSU (-11) vs. Iowa

2:25 > Indiana vs. Wisconsin (pk)

6:30 > Michigan (-5.5) vs. Minnesota

8:55 > OSU (-7.5) vs Purdue