Kenpom's Big Ten Tourney Projections
Mr. Pomeroy has been busy crunching the numbers for each conference tournament, calculating percentages for each team's chances for success.
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/big_ten_log51
Below is the chart for the BTT based off of Ken's ratings and Bill James' log5 formula (I am not familiar with this formula but assume it is complicated).
Michigan is the favorite as you can see, though a potential quarterfinals matchup with Indiana has them slightly less favored to make the semis than Wisconsin, who most likely will be facing Minnesota.
Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 Michigan 100 72.6 45.1 25.4
2 Wisconsin 100 73.7 40.4 22.1
5 Ohio St. 82.2 55.2 28.9 15.1
3 Michigan St. 100 55.9 29.3 15.0
6 Iowa 86.2 42.3 21.8 10.9
4 Nebraska 100 39.4 14.1 5.0
8 Indiana 57.8 17.4 7.3 2.6
7 Minnesota 58.9 17.1 5.7 1.9
9 Illinois 42.2 10.1 3.5 1.0
10 Penn St. 41.1 9.2 2.4 0.6
12 Purdue 17.8 5.5 1.1 0.2
11 Northwestern 13.8 1.8 0.3 0.05
The summary of the tournament focuses mostly on MSU (yes, injuries are mentioned), however it mostly paints their chances now that they're "healthy" in a negative light.
Finally, a quick rundown of today's games:
Illinois vs. Indiana, 12pm (BTN) -- IU -2.0
Purdue vs. Ohio State, ~2:25pm (BTN) -- OSU -8.5
Penn State vs. Minnesota, 6:30pm (ESPN2) -- Minn -4.5
Northwestern vs. Iowa, ~ 8:55pm (ESPN2) -- Iowa -12.5
March 13th, 2014 at 11:09 AM ^
Do you think it's better (as a Michigan fan) to root for Illinois in this first game then? Just curious. They seem to be a better matchup for Michigan, but I worry that they are a team that could get hot shooting the ball and also be a tough out.
March 13th, 2014 at 11:11 AM ^
because fuck Indiana.
March 13th, 2014 at 12:44 PM ^
I like your answer better than mine.
I made this comment during the game on Saturday and my wife says, "you don't really like any team Michigan plays do you?". Then she proceeded to list off ND in football, Duke in basketball, MSU & OSU in everything. To which I replied, "yeah, but fuck Indiana basketball!"
I can totally see that same discussion going on in my house. AND I can't see why women have such a difficult time with this line of logic.
I tried to justify my point by explaining the history of Michigan and IU basketball. It didn't take long for me to realize my efforts were failing worse than reporters at a Bobby Knight press conference (which, again, fuck Indiana basketball).
March 13th, 2014 at 11:12 AM ^
They aren't a really good offensive team, so I'd really be surprised if they had a hot shooting game against us. They really rely on turnovers on D, which Michigan will not give them. Indiana has been a tough matchup for Michigan over the last few years, so root on for Illinois today!
March 13th, 2014 at 11:16 AM ^
In conference play they have the worst eFG% (43.3), built from the worst 2pt% (42.1) and third-worst 3pt% (30.4).
Yes, they are a better defensive team than Indiana, but I also think that some of their impressive showings down the stretch were at least partially a product of iffy offenses rather than all fantastic defense.
March 13th, 2014 at 11:17 AM ^
indiana is a decent HORSE team if you don't guard them, which we haven't shown a particularly great interest in doing. root for the illini.
March 13th, 2014 at 11:26 AM ^
I'd much prefer to play against a good defense than a good offense. We're gonna score no matter what.
March 13th, 2014 at 11:41 AM ^
As long as Crean is coaching, as long as they have those ridiculous striped pants, as long as they're insufferable arrogant, I will root against Indiana.
Here are some hypotheticals when I could at least consider not rooting against them (but not rooting for them)
- If in the future, in a year when Indiana had no chance of making the NCAA but can knock off a top ranked MSU or Ohio or Wisconsin, I wouldn't root against Indiana.
- If in the future, Indiana's coach is a former Michigan player, who is not a jerk, I wouldn't root against Indiana.
- If in the future, in a Big10 Tournament setting, Michigan's potential semifinal or final matchup against Indiana is much more favorable than Michigan's potential matchup against Indiana's opponent, I wouldn't root against Indiana.
- If in the future, Indiana winning would exponentially increase their future schadenfreude, I wouldn't root against Indiana.
None of those hypotheticals come into play this year. So I will be rooting against Indiana.
March 13th, 2014 at 11:51 AM ^
As long as Crean is coaching, as long as they have those ridiculous striped pants, as long as they're insufferable arrogant, I will root against Indiana.
Here are some hypotheticals when I could at least consider not rooting against them (but not rooting for them)
- If in the future, in a year when Indiana had no chance of making the NCAA but can knock off a top ranked MSU or Ohio or Wisconsin, I wouldn't root against Indiana.
- If in the future, Indiana's coach is a former Michigan player, who is not a jerk, I wouldn't root against Indiana.
- If in the future, in a Big10 Tournament setting, Michigan's potential semifinal or final matchup against Indiana is much more favorable than Michigan's potential matchup against Indiana's opponent, I wouldn't root against Indiana.
- If in the future, Indiana winning would exponentially increase their future schadenfreude, I wouldn't root against Indiana.
None of those hypotheticals come into play this year. So I will be rooting against Indiana.
March 13th, 2014 at 11:12 AM ^
thanks for posting. I liked your comment - "I am not familiar with this formula but assume it is complicated," which was my exact thought.
March 13th, 2014 at 11:13 AM ^
We could easily lose to Ohio, MSU and Wisconsin if our shooters are off and based on which team benefits from the standard 10 or so blown ref calls each game. Not very confident we'll win this tourney at all. All I want is just not to lose to Ohio or MSU. Rest is gravy.
March 13th, 2014 at 11:45 AM ^
and would also be extra upsetting. I loath Tom Crean.
March 13th, 2014 at 11:14 AM ^
Root for Illinois today, Michigan to win it all and for a Hawkeye-Gopher semi-final on the other half.
March 13th, 2014 at 12:20 PM ^
March 13th, 2014 at 11:45 AM ^
I always understood James' Log5 Formula to be based on the fraction of games won or lost by two teams, where Team X, for example goes 18-13 and Team Y goes 14-16, then you know that 18 games out of 31 is 0.5806 and 14 out of 30 is 0.4667. From those win percentages, the estimate would be something like this (going from memory):
((0.5806) - (0.5806*0.4667)) / ((0.5806+0.4667)-2(0.5806*0.4667)) = 0.6126, or Team X has an estimated 61.26% chance of beating Team Y.
Again, I haven't dealt with the Log5 calculation for a while, so if I am incorrect, someone please correct me.
March 13th, 2014 at 11:47 AM ^
I found it amazing that with the B1G championship being so late, sometimes the committee doesn't the factor in winning the B1G tournament when they do seeding.
March 13th, 2014 at 11:58 AM ^
March 13th, 2014 at 12:37 PM ^
March 13th, 2014 at 12:52 PM ^