What will Michigan's final record be?

Submitted by graybeaver on
I think Michigan has two winnable games remaining on their schedule. Nebraska and Iowa. Northwestern will be pumped up and play Michigan like they did OSU. We should beat Nebraska in a shoot out. The Iowa game will be up for grabs, but is winnable. I'm not convinced Michigan will win because it's on the road. I see this team finishing 7-5. That's not horrible, but not what most of us were expecting. What has concerned me the most has been the lack of improvement. The defense seems to be getting worse. MSU is a horrible offense and they scored when they needed to. They could hardly move the ball against Purdue. The OL is a complete dumpster fire and is not improving. I still believe in Hoke and think this team will improve significantly next season. Remember, it took Jimbo Fisher at FSU four seasons to get rolling, and he has an all-American type QB. This is just one of those seasons where things aren't clicking. It happens to every coach.
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SAvoodoo

November 4th, 2013 at 12:39 PM ^

0-12, fire Borges!

Oh, sorry wrong thread. 9-3, loss to Nebraska kicking off an insane downward spiral, beat ohio state causing everyone to renew faith in the system and all that jazz. Repeat for bowl game loss, painful off season gives way to optimism in August (senior Gardner HAS to take a big step!), season starts and Borges once again is a genius/idiot...and the cycle continues.

Joined: 01/10/2010

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goblue20111

November 4th, 2013 at 12:43 PM ^

7-5 or 6-6.

I don't really see any games as winnable. With the exception of Iowa, all the remaning teams have decent offenses and teams know what to do to give our line hell after MSU. There are no Indiana defenses left on the schedule.

Joined: 10/31/2010

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B1G_Fan

November 4th, 2013 at 3:20 PM ^

Northwestern was a broken team after Ohio or Wisconsin take your pick. Losing to iowa, Minne. and finally Nebraska where the ultimate nut shot while you are rolling on the ground. You have to respect them for what they are capable of ( Kind of like Michigan) but we should win the game.

Joined: 10/11/2012

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GoBlueInNYC

November 4th, 2013 at 1:00 PM ^

I think Nebraska is probably the best match-up left on Michigan's schedule. Trainwreck D with a competent O is something this team can handle. Iowa (good D with incompetent O) isn't as comfortable, plus playing at Iowa has been something of an issue lately. NW is the embodiment of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle paired with a solar eclipse. Looking directly at them will render you both blind and twist the space-time cotinuum to make the outcome change every time you look at it. And OSU will be brutal.

Joined: 03/23/2010

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DavidP814

November 4th, 2013 at 2:11 PM ^

No, but it gives an analytical, objective view how Saturday's events can be used as a predictor for the rest of the season.  I would think 8-4 is still reasonable, and given what we thought we were looking at before the season, 8-4 isn't terrible.

This is also why the coaches blowing winnable games (i.e. PSU) is still so frustrating.  A single loss really can have a palpable effect on how the season is viewed both by fans and the football-interested public (including future recruits) at home.  7-1, staring at 3 winnable games (no more than 4-pt dogs in any remaining game save OSU) could be reasonably considered a success.

Joined: 07/13/2012

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a2_electricboogaloo

November 4th, 2013 at 12:56 PM ^

Nebraska's defense is not much better than Indiana's, and Northwestern 0-5 in the Big Ten this year.  Both of those are very winnable games.  I'd honestly guess that we'll be 8-4 this season.  Predicting a 6-6 record is just a kinda silly response to an embarassing loss.  We'll win again this season, probably a couple games, maybe a few.  I don't even think it's impossible for us to win out.

My odds breakdown is (bowl game not counting)

6-6 (3%)
7-5 (15%)
8-4 (45%)
9-3 (30%)
10-2 (7%)

Joined: 04/21/2011

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robpollard

November 4th, 2013 at 1:00 PM ^

What are the odds against OSU - 10%? Dare I say 20%? Let's go with 20% and be really optimistic.

Then, assuming we have a 50/50 split for the remaining three games (which I think is pretty reasoanble, b/c while Iowa and Northwestern aren't good, we aren't good away from home, so it's a wash). That gives you a 2.5% chance of going 10-2. That sounds about right, even if you are being optimistic.

8-4.

Joined: 06/03/2009

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a2_electricboogaloo

November 4th, 2013 at 1:38 PM ^

I think 50/50 splits are fairly pessimistic.  I would probably put the next three games at 75% chances of winning.  Nebraska is an okay team at home, considering how well we've played at home, I would guess we should win it.  Iowa and Northwestern are both bad teams, but we can drop either or, so I'd say 75% would be reasonable for both of those too.

I gave us about a 15% chance of beating Ohio, which gives us odds of ~6.3%.

Joined: 04/21/2011

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robpollard

November 4th, 2013 at 1:55 PM ^

I agree that none of those 3 teams are very good, but frankly, neither are we. I think we are definitely better than Iowa, but I would never give someone three to one odds that we are going to beat Nebraska or the same for Northwestern. U of M has really struggled against some bad teams, and lost to PSU -- who Northwestern is at least as good as.

Glad you're optimistic, though. Hopefully you are right. But I think we are in coin flip territory in the next 3 games.

Joined: 06/03/2009

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robpollard

November 4th, 2013 at 1:19 PM ^

They have had an Iowa-level amount of losses to their RBs. They've lost numerous other key people (e.g., their QB).

Since it's a road game, there is always a chance we will really struggle and lose to NU by 14+ points. But they aren't the team that took OSU to the wire five weeks ago. We will have a decent shot at a victory.

Joined: 06/03/2009

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robpollard

November 4th, 2013 at 5:28 PM ^

I'm not saying we have a great shot at beating NU, but I just don't think we're going to blown out of there (at least it's not the most likely scenario) or that they're "good". That's what I was responding to. NU is not nearly as good as they were 5 games ago. They are an average team, at best.

I mean, I agree they are better than UConn (who is terrible) and likely as good as PSU. But they also lost (at home) to Minnesota.

It's a 50/50 game. There is really not a score that you could predict for that game which would surprise me.

Joined: 06/03/2009

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saveferris

November 4th, 2013 at 12:55 PM ^

I had your confidence, but OSU is looking every bit the BCS title contender that folks had them pegged as coming into this season.  As for Michigan, all the disclaimers that we needed to swing our way for this team to compete for the conference championship have pretty much not swung our way.

That said, this is still the B1G in 2013, we finish 9-3 with Hoke, sadly, losing his first game in Ann Arbor on November 30th.

Please team, prove me wrong.

Joined: 07/02/2009

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DonAZ

November 4th, 2013 at 1:59 PM ^

OSU is looking every bit the BCS title contender that folks had them pegged as coming into this season.

I doubt OSU will get a short at the championship game.  And if they did, I doubt they'd make a good show of it.  Alabama or Florida State would kill them, each in their own way.  My mind is still not quite made up on Oregon ... this weekend will tell that story.

 

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Soulfire21

November 4th, 2013 at 1:03 PM ^

It could be 10-2, it could be 6-6.  Neither of those are particularly likely, so why not just take the middle?  8-4.

The games that concern me most are now @Iowa and home against OSU.

Edit:  Fuck it, eternal optimist here in a board filled with too much pessimism.  11-2.  If you'll excuse me, I have some maize colored koolaid to drink now.

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Look Up_See Blue

November 4th, 2013 at 1:04 PM ^

The lone win I see is Iowa, and even then the pink lockers will probably confuse the O-Line and Devin will be sacked 10 times. All the other games are losses.

Joined: 07/06/2011

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The Geek

November 4th, 2013 at 1:10 PM ^

We just got pounded by Staee, and will get smoked by anOSU. I expect Nebraska to beat us, as well.

 

Only game we showed any pride is the Notre Dame win (and Central, but that doesn't really count, imho).

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