SFGate: Why Harbaugh Love Affair Ended

Well Jed and Cousin Balki have to spin it somehow. Kap is and will be very average but a dynamic runner. The o line was bad this year, Davis was hurt and Crabtree is one of the most overrated players in the League. There is nothing there on offense and the organization failed to realize the window was closing after last year. 4 years is like a generation in the NFL now. Time to ovwrhaul it there

Do not want...

/s!!!!

A head coach is typically minded one way or another (offense or defense). The biggest issue I believe you are overlooking is his leadership. His determination. All reasons he has turned around three programs (two of which were historically bad football wise) and would most likely win here. No one is claiming an inherent schematic advantage, just the hope that we will actually start to "out-physical" teams instead of just talking about it.

49ers management has to find a way to spin this. Their fans are in revolt over losing Harbaugh. Too many of their fans still remember the years prior to Harbaugh.

It seems to me that Harbaugh has lost the locker room. Players are not playing as a team, so it's hard to gauge. Let's not forget that, going into this year, he compiled a 36-11 (!) record as a NFL coach. 

What you're seeing is a team that isn't playing like one - which speaks to the rumors of a personality clash between the 9ers front office (and team) and Harbaugh. Let's not look at this year's stats alone to torpedo people's optimism. It's selective analysis.

I read and i couldnt wait to neg you..Happy Holidays

Thoughts - agree on the D.  It is important for him to hire an elite DC.  I did a diary on his Stanford years and was aghast at how bad Stanford's first 3 defenses were.  Fangio came in his last year at Stanford on loan from the NFL and turned that unit around in even more blunt fashion than Mattison did when he showed up in here post RR.  Jim has had Fangio with him all these years in SF to run that loaded defense.

Jim is a lot like Urban Meyer in that regard.  He is going to focus on the offense and the defense is going to need a very good coach to run it.  Of course the talent level here will be much better than he could ever get at Stanford in terms of elite athletes.  But like OSU if we dont get an elite DC I expect a "good but not great D" married with a "very good offense".

As for discipline or whatever, the NFL has a union and a whole lot of other things that dont apply to NCAA - don't care.  Didnt hear issues at Stanford with Harbaugh.

As for the offense there are issues to raise this year - I had a thread on that about 3 weeks ago asking SF fans what the issues were and they seem to think the OL took some hits, Gore is slowing down, Hyde has not picked up the slack, and Kap took a step back.  He used to run more in previous years but he has converted to more of a pocket QB now that he signed a mega deal.  In a way it sounds like Devin this year, except without the mega deal.

Main thing with Jim is you are going to get discipline, high achievement and maximized talent at every level - including him pressing the position coaches / coordinators.  But he is not a guy who is going to be coaching DBs or anything.   My main concern will be his DC hire and the position coaches on the defense.  I think Jim "and team" will find a way with the offense.  Juding a QB "guru" on 1 bad year when there are 6 prior years of good is recency bias.

Here are Stanford's stats on O and D using total offense/defense, FEI, and S&P+ from the diary.  (2007-2010)  Note how bad the D was before Fangio showed up in 2010..  If he somehow convinced Fangio to come to the NCAA I'd be thrilled.  If its a Durkin type well we are just guessing - that could be Muschamp who truly ran Florida's D.

 

	W/L	Tot Off	oFEI	oS&P+		Tot Def	dFEI	dS&P+
2006	1-11	118	-	113		97	-	99
2007	4-8	107	61	83		98	49	85
2008	5-7	67	48	31		75	80	87
2009	8-5	19	1	6		90	91	113
2010	12-1	14	5	3		21	6	6
2011	11-2	8	6	8		26	13	22

 

Here is a deep dig into the data broken down by run / pass

	Rush O	Pass O	Rush D	Pass D
2006	115	95	117	60
2007	102	70	77	84
2008	19	103	77	83
2009	11	70	55	98
2010	17	29	19	16
2011	18	22	3	73

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at RB. Boldin is a solid possession guy as is Crabtree, but nothing more.

Soft on player discipline? How is he responsible for the actions of a drunk and spousal abuser? You do realize that the NFL has an union don't you? This plays a significant factor in what can and cannot be done to players.

The Niners defense is indeed good, but their offense before this seaosn was solid, if not spectacular, which is what they were asking for. The Niners are a defensive oriented team and the offense reflects that. At it's peak it was Manball par excellence.

You are picking nits out of crevices in order to construct a dissenting argument. It isn't much of an argument because it completely ignores his success at Stanford and the first three years of his 49ers tenure.

Harbaugh is clearly a great coach. He turned San Diego around Stanford from 1-11 to 12-1 in 4 years and went to the Super Bowl and three NFC titles at the 49ers. Saban and Caroll did much worse than one 7-8 season in the NFL and they were some of the best college coaches around. Saban and Caroll pre USC never touched half the success that Harbaugh has had.

To the OP, you need to remember the first rule of points. NEVER talk about points. Just suck it up and take your beating. You only make it worse when you whine about negs. Which you implicitly did with your edit to your OP.

So what? 

commence plan B.

Mods please delete.

Negative Harbaugh propaganda need not apply. I think ban hammer is needed. No one speaks negatively about our beloved savior.

the three previous seasons. Your 49er friend is remarkably forgetful. His comment says much more about him then it does Harbaugh.

Harbaugh had an excellent tenure in SanFran until this season. There is no dismissing that. 

You're getting killed as though you wrote the article...ouch. Another point on the qb thing was the turn around of Alex Smith. Destined for the scrap heap but Jim's staff got very good play out of him for a year and a half.

I'll say again, the 49ers are idiots for wanting to get rid of Harbaugh.  I will bathe in a pool of their delicous tears when they go back to sucking.

Also I'd like to point out 1 more thing about Kap and "regression".  I am not so familiar with the team that i watch them every week but from a statistical point of view I dont see monster regression

• 2012: 62.4% completion rate, 8.3 ypa, 10 TD / 3 INT, QB rating 98.3
• 2013:  58.4% completion rate, 7.7 ypa, 21 TD / 8 INT, QB rating 91.6
• 2014: 60.6% completon rate, 7.0 ypa, 17 TD / 10 INT, QB rating 85.1

Is he slightly down vs 2013? Yes.  He is throwing shorter passes per attempt but completing more.  He has slighty worse TD to INT ratio.  If SF had won 2 close games (i.e. not lost to Oakland and beat anyone else on the schedule) would this  be such an issue?

Again this is from afar and I dont watch SF every week but his stats dont seem much different.  The team lost more games and suddenly everything is up for critcism.

For comparison here is Matt Stafford's stats in 2014:

• 61.1% completion rate, 7.0 ypa, 19 TD / 12 INT, QB rating 85.4

He is almost identical to Kap.  If the Lions were 7-8 he'd be under immense criticism.  Since they are 11-4 he is a "good game manager who has pulled back from his gunslinging ways".

The wins and losses ultimately dictate the narrrative.

Did I hear a 9er in there?

Kapernick will obviously regress. He is a mediocre to below mediocre QB. Just regressing back to the mean.

maybe because after coming off 3 straight nfc title games and a super bowl appearance, he was rewarded by management trying to ship him to Cleveland instead of giving him the dam raise he deserved. Discussing this is a joke..and if you think there has been a better option for us you're delusional

All of these points seem to a degree, meaningless. The nfl is probably the hardest sport to keep a team dominant for an extended period of time. The team is older on offense and defense and has slowed to a degree from injuries to off the field issues. Kaepernick hasn't lit the world on fire but he was a third round pick from Nevada that could scramble. The fact that he took them to a Super Bowl is insane. Also look at what he did with mediocre Alex Smith. Basically my opinion is this, is he the next nick saban? I don't know, but he's a hell of a lot better option than anything that's available. He's had sustained success at every level of football and his attitude of take no shit from other coaches is exactly what Michigan needs. They've been soft for a while and he could be just the right person to pick the pieces up.

The satirical rogue says here that old men have gray beards, that their faces are wrinkled, their eyes purging thick amber and plum-tree gum, and that they have a plentiful lack of wit, together with most weak hams

Bulletpoints:

- That the 49er's suck at (passing) offense may have something to do with this. Their line has struggled with injuries all year and their receivers are garbage. Boldin is past his prime, Lloyd is a one hit wonder same as Crabtree, Stevie Johnson is buried in the depth chart after two straight terrible years.

- Kaepernick has struggled a bit, but I would'nt call him a "tire fire." You can easily chalk up his struggles to injuries to his supoprting cast.

- Their DC absolutely deserves a share of credit, but how much is debatable. As far as player discipline, I am not worried about this. NFL organization politics =/= NCAA organization politics

- This, I have no answer for. All I can do is point to his success and improvement at every single head coaching stop and chalk this year up to some really bad luck.

There's room for only one diva in the organization. Given that, I'd reserve the diva role for someone who's irreplaceable.  Whose more replaceable the GM or the coach?  That's who should go.  Who will go?  That's usually determined by the org chart.

I mean 3 NFC championships and a super bowl, but no winning the show? Awful. He should be coaching pee wee.

That these aren't the OP's thoughts or opinions, but I'd like to offer responses and rebuttals just the same.

• The Raiders 3 wins all came over teams that were right on the cusp of the playoffs. Two of the teams were led by coaches that have been to the SB (Harbaugh, Reid.). All 3 teams had considerable QB deficiencies. They also played the Pats, Seahawks and Chargers very tough.

•Colin Kaepernick has all the physical tools and then some... But Jim Harbaugh can't force him to make sound decisions with the ball, or make him an accurate passer.

•Aside from the front office turmoil, injuries were absolutely devastating to this team. First and foremost, the OLine. Second, key defensive players. I wonder if Seattle would have lost more games w/o Sherman, or NE w/o Revis, Houston w/o Watt, GB w/o Clay? You get the point, that's the equivalent of losing Patrick Willis, one of the 3-5 best LBs in the league.

•SF's two best offensive weapons are guys that have been in the league 10+ years and have a lot of wear and tear (Boldin, Gore). Also, it's hard to put either of those players in a position to succeed offensively when you have OL problems (UofM last year folks?) and a skiddish, inaccurate QB that turns the ball over like Kaep (Devin anyone?).

•Six of SF's games were against 3 of the 10 best defenses in the league, within the toughest division in the NFL, then here are just a handful of the non division foes... DEN, DAL, PHI, NO, SD, KC. That's a mix of ZERO gimme's, solid D, top QBs and teams in the playoff hunt to the very end.

•And still with 3 wins given away (CHI, STL, SD), due to plays/TO's Harbaugh had no control over, this 49ers team should be 10-5 in spite of all of that plays ARI the last game of the year with the final WC spot on the line and Logan Thomas at QB.

Jim Harbaugh is a great, game changing, organization/program righting coach... I doubt I could use my second hand to count the coaches I'd rather have at this point. Bill B, Carroll, Saban, Meyer... Then after that, who is decidedly better, more accomplished or available? That rest don't have the positive résumé at both levels, it's one or the other, or not as age friendly. Coughlin, Tomlin, McCarthy, Stoops, Miles, Brother Baugh, Payton, Chip, Gus, Jimbo. This is just contrarian fodder based on the sake of being so.

No doubt Harbaugh isn't perfect. Few coaches are. There is no guarantee that we win championships if he comes. That being said he is still the best candidate for the job.