OT Vaccine Optimism
It sounds like we have two vaccines with 90%+ effectiveness on the way https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1247888
Another thing that really stood out about Moderna's is that they believe it also lessens the severity of COVID if the vaccine doesn't completely prevent infection.
We could have a normal 2021 summer.
November 16th, 2020 at 1:46 PM ^
Shut up and put it in my arm.
November 16th, 2020 at 4:15 PM ^
Photo of DTOW and friends signing up to be Guinea Pigs
November 16th, 2020 at 8:12 PM ^
Lol. Whatever it takes for me not to go through another round of originating PPP loans for people again.
November 16th, 2020 at 1:50 PM ^
The Moderna one is much easier to distribute since it doesn't have the extreme cold requirements for storage and the Pfizer requires two doses spaced apart by about 3 weeks if I recall correctly.
November 16th, 2020 at 1:53 PM ^
You're right about the temp thing, but Moderna's needs two doses 28 days apart too, so that'll be basically the same as Pfizer
November 16th, 2020 at 2:33 PM ^
Moderna’s prevents URT replication as well thus potentially decreasing transmission as well.
November 16th, 2020 at 5:27 PM ^
Johnson & Johnson's will be one shot but they are behind Pfizer and Moderna time wise.
November 16th, 2020 at 1:51 PM ^
Good. Just in time before the renters come back
November 16th, 2020 at 1:54 PM ^
Very encouraging news. Let's get production and logistics kicked into high gear once these options have been appropriately vetted for mass distribution.
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November 16th, 2020 at 4:04 PM ^
"...once these options have been appropriately vetted..."
Yes, these hastily concocted vaccines with revolutionary shocking effectiveness rates probably need to be vetted...you know, some long-term studies vs shoving it out to the masses?
November 16th, 2020 at 7:46 PM ^
Bruh, it’s pretty clear from your posting history that there is no amount of proof that you would accept as safe. What are you proposing, holding off for a decade juuuust to be extra safe? What are your concerns about mRNA vaccines? Mind control?
November 16th, 2020 at 8:29 PM ^
Considering the proven risks of the virus versus the potential risks of the vaccine, I'll choose the vaccine every day of the week and twice on Sundays. But mRNA platforms are new, so we can't know how that type, and this one in particular, will hold up in terms of safety and efficacy over the long term.
Still, it's better than nothing; especially if it allows us to (mostly) get past the pandemic in the next several months.
November 16th, 2020 at 11:26 PM ^
Sure thing, I'll similarly jump at the opportunity to get the shot and will have a good chance of getting one early as a frontline healthcare provider. While we may not know the long term efficacy, it's very difficult for me to imagine long term safety issues with this approach. Johnny Walker is taking the tack that the whole thing is being rushed, everybody is a guinea pig/sheep, and it's dangerous until we have three decades worth of data supporting zero side effects. I was just wondering if he had some particular insight on mRNA vaccines other than, "the gubmint can't experiment on me!".
November 17th, 2020 at 10:02 AM ^
these vaccines are not 'hastily concocted'.
they all go through the same safety steps other vaccines go through.
the only reason why the vaccine would be quickly supplied after clinical trials is the companies are also developing manufacturing in parallel to clinical trials for covid vaccines. companies almost never does that in case therapeutics do not get past clinical trials. but for this vaccine, since time is of the essence, they are doing it in parallel due to the urgency.
have a read.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html
November 16th, 2020 at 1:55 PM ^
I'm not anti vax but not knowing what the long term effects would be is pretty frightening IMO.
November 16th, 2020 at 1:58 PM ^
Do you have to get it if you already had Covid?
November 16th, 2020 at 2:03 PM ^
Not a bad plan, because the antibodies your body created in response to COVID may not be long-term.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:19 PM ^
Antibodies your body creates last longer than the vaccine. This will end up being an annual vaccine.
November 16th, 2020 at 3:33 PM ^
Probably so...one of my kids had CV in March and has been part of a study since then. He's an ER doc, He said about a week ago that he has virtually no detectable antibodies left but believes T-cell immunity is probably still available.
If enough people take a vaccine worldwide, you could create herd immunity and reduce the case load to a point where vaccinations may not have to be done. That most likely won't happen in a hurry particularly with antivaxers in large numbers, at least in the US.
November 16th, 2020 at 4:59 PM ^
I don't think we know that answer yet. Sometimes vaccines work better than natural immunity.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:19 PM ^
Same. I know a number of people who are very much not anti-vax but still have concerns. Myself included. How do I know there won't be any long term health effects associated with these?
November 16th, 2020 at 2:40 PM ^
As opposed to the unknown long term effects of getting Covid? I have my concerns about rushed vaccines, as well. But it’s not like not getting the vaccine doesn’t also carry a degree of unknown risks, too.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:57 PM ^
Seriously. So many examples of long term complications from infections.
Very few (I can't name any) examples of long term complications from vaccines.
November 16th, 2020 at 5:05 PM ^
*cough* Gerald Ford *cough*
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_swine_flu_outbreak
November 16th, 2020 at 6:41 PM ^
Looks like Joan Jett getting that jet injection on the wiki.
November 16th, 2020 at 3:03 PM ^
COVID-19 Vaccine Researchers Mindful of Immune Enhancement
There is no evidence that any of the coronavirus vaccines in development worsen a coronavirus infection rather than confer immunity to it, but the phenomenon is something scientists are closely monitoring.
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/covid-19-vaccine-researchers-mindful-of-immune-enhancement-67576
November 16th, 2020 at 7:34 PM ^
Not dismiss the possibility of longterm health effects, but you can see why people would rather potentially deal with getting Covid than taking a vaccine they don’t understand. For the vast majority of people, you survive covid and seem fine. Its going to be hard to convince a lot of people to take the vaccine at first and I cant say I blame people for feeing like guinea pigs
November 16th, 2020 at 11:05 PM ^
Typical vaccine development has taken considerable time because of a host of different factors including relatively small number of infections, reluctance to throw resources at the problem and red tape that typically causes things to proceed at a snail's pace in the US, liability concerns, etc.
CV19 is a very different situation due to the huge numbers of people getting sick and the economic disruption the virus is causing, a problem that won't be reconciled without a vaccine.
In the current case, most of the problems have been thrown out the window and the US and other countries have thrown considerable money at the problem to create significant manufacturing of vaccines while testing is ongoing as well as making approval a process that avoids red tape while still having adequate review to ensure safety. That is huge. The large numbers of people worldwide who would take a vaccine makes for a great financial windfall for companies that develop a vaccine. The type of vaccine Moderna and Pfizer have developed also relies on new technology that may be a silver bullet capable of being used quickly against other viruses in the future.
Each person may have some latitude in terms of making a decision about getting inoculated buy I'd guess that many employers will provide pressure such as what happens in HC facilities where getting annual shots for the flu is a requirement unless one has a serious medical condition.
One thing is certain. Until we get this virus under control our economy is going to be in for tough sledding. Enough people simply won't assume the risk of getting sick regardless of government mandates or not.
November 16th, 2020 at 8:10 PM ^
That’s an excellent and maturely phrased post lhrkwg. The honest truth is that nothing in biology is 100% certain so it’ll depend on your threshold for risk. The idea that an mRNA vaccine would cause long term health issues is remote because of the way it works. It isn’t like the early polio vaccine where a bunch of kids got paralyzed when the batch of virus wasn’t inactivated. Even with that, people were still lining up to get it because of the very real risk their kid might wake up paralyzed from polio in the wild. You cannot get an infection from mRNA any more than you would turn into me by touching a doorknob after I did. I would encourage you to seek out legit sources that can hopefully address your concerns and come to a conclusion that suits you. One small piece of advice, things like this can get pretty echo-chamer-y, so find sources you can trust.
November 16th, 2020 at 10:40 PM ^
I'll add that this vaccine mRNA is non-replicating. It's delivered to your cells, your cell uses it to make the vaccine protein, and then it's gone.
November 17th, 2020 at 6:29 AM ^
Thanks for your response. Very helpful. Have any recommended readings? Medicine is definitely not my area of expertise
November 16th, 2020 at 1:55 PM ^
I’m not an expert, so honest question here: when do you actually think a: the vaccine will be available and b: it will impact our quality of life i.e. getting back some normalcy? I think we are all a little fatigued and are tired of all of the mixed messages coming out from almost every “expert”. Stay safe everyone!
November 16th, 2020 at 2:07 PM ^
I read the other day that Dr Fauci said they should be able to start giving the vaccine to the general population Aprilish thru July/August
so that sounds to me like we start getting back to normal in the fall
November 16th, 2020 at 2:28 PM ^
I honestly don't think there's been any mixed messages from experts. I think there are a lot of non-experts saying shit and people just wrap that up into what actual experts are saying. Classic disinformation campaign. But anway, I think the consensus on people who actually know is that it will be well into next year before mass distribution is available for the public. First batches are expected to available by December, but will be very limited until manufacturing and distribution (not to mention the infrastructure for Pfizer's super fragile vaccine) are ramped up. So you're looking at spring and summer before everyday people can get it probably. So that means by next summer and fall maybe we're getting back to 'normal', but then there will be another respiratory virus season winter 2021 and into 2022.
And we're really just talking about the US. If we want to get back to 'Normal" the whole damn world has to get vaccinated considering the amount of international travel that happens these days. The economics people are predicting 2022 before things are really "back to normal".
No one knows for sure how long immunity will be conferred with the vaccine, but I think the outlook appear this will be a yearly vaccine like a flu vaccine based on what we know about antibody response to COVID.
Also two dose vaccines are not good in a case like this. It's hard enough to get people to take one vaccine unless mandated by like school, and how have to get them back in for a second one? That could actually be a big hurdle to wide spread immunity even when the vaccine is readily available. But then again, who knows, that's just kind of a guess based on general medicine/medical adherence and human behavior.
November 16th, 2020 at 3:45 PM ^
Yes, while tens of millions (as they do right now) will not change their habits and have big parties at their house etc, there is no way the general population & government rules are getting back to "normal" (if by normal you mean it is allowed by health officials to have 20,000 people in Staples Center watching the Lakers play the Clippers) by summer. There is a ton to do before then, and we're not ready.
Stop me if you've heard this crisis management plan before:
While the Trump administration has showered billions of dollars on the companies developing the vaccines, it has left the logistics of inoculating and tracking as many as 20 million people by year’s end — and many tens of millions more next year — largely to local governments without providing enough money, officials in several localities and public health experts involved in the preparations said in interviews.
Public health departments, already strained by a pandemic that has overrun hospitals and drained budgets, are racing to expand online systems to track and share information about who has been vaccinated; to recruit and train hundreds of thousands of doctors, nurses and pharmacists to give people the shot and collect data about everyone who gets it; to find safe locations for mass vaccination events; and to convince the public of the importance of getting immunized.
We need to vaccinate over 200 million people. That requires absolutely massive planning and it just hasn't been done. A particularly hard part is unlike, say the flu vaccine (which has a long-record of safety) this vaccine doesn't have that established safety profile yet, so detailed data collection is essential -- race, gender, age, pre-existing conditions, etc -- so the FDA can see if there are adverse events with any populations. But the IT systems haven't been built, and don't communicate well to the feds even if they have.
We absolutely should be in a much better place by summer, and hopefully by fall we can have football at the Big House with a significant amount of fans (not to mention far less concern about games being cancelled or postponed), but having an effective vaccine is just the first step on a long journey.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/14/health/covid-vaccine-distribution-plans.html
November 17th, 2020 at 7:09 AM ^
Don't know if you saw this 60 Minutes piece but distribution of vaccines is going to be handled by the military.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-vaccine-distribution-60-minutes-2020-11-08/
Many healthcare facilities, i.e., universities and other entities that are very large have been running vaccination programs for several years where they practice giving flu shots to a very large number of people in a single day. Assuming the US military can get vaccines to the right places quickly, you could get lots of people "shot up": in a hurry. Having multiple suppliers of vaccine is going to help considerably.
Is there risk? Probably small but finite. I've got three docs in my family and I've heard enough horror stories about Covid to be willing to assume the risk.
If there isn't significant agreement of our population to be vaccinated, we are going to be in a heap of economic trouble for the foreseeable future.
November 17th, 2020 at 7:51 AM ^
I think the biggest hurdle is honestly getting people into be vaccinated let alone for a second dose. I work in a primary care office and I can't tell you how many people delay or don't come in for second doses of vaccines. In most cases it's not a huge deal and can get it a bit later when they can come in, but for a vaccine that's only going to give a few months coverage? Big hurdle. The real game changer is when there is a vaccine that is one dose.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:38 PM ^
Assuming no setbacks in the FDA approval track -- and that's no small thing -- the expcerts say the vaccine to be widely available in the US by April.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:49 PM ^
There is one problem: it only works if people take it. That is the gigantic obstacle looming between the world and "normal" or something like it.
Without delving into the civil liberties aspects of it, expect proof-of-vaccination to become a necessary element of admission to what we currently think of as high-risk venues and spreader events. Perhaps a smartphone app with a QR code that you scan as you walk in?
November 16th, 2020 at 3:03 PM ^
The fact that it is so effective negates this issue at least somewhat. If it was a 60% effective vaccine we would be in deep trouble if 30-40% of people refused it. Because it's 95% effective, people can probably still feel pretty safe if they personally get it.
November 16th, 2020 at 4:26 PM ^
First company: We have a 90%(!!!) effectiveness rate!
Fauci: Unprecedented and amazing!
Second company: Ours is 95%(!!!) effective!
Fauci: uh...
Yes, I am sure all these companies are delivering magically effective vaccines under the strictest and shortest timelines ever for a vaccine.
November 16th, 2020 at 4:45 PM ^
I am an expert. They have similar effectiveness because they are based on the same core technology and that technology happens to be very effective against this virus.
November 16th, 2020 at 10:57 PM ^
Yeah, the (bio)technology here is what's "new" and what they've been developing the last decade or two (i.e. delivery system).
The science itself (mRNA, antigens, immune response) has been known for what, 50 years?
November 16th, 2020 at 4:57 PM ^
Science looks like magic when you don't understand it.
November 16th, 2020 at 7:22 PM ^
Huh?
"These are obviously very exciting results," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease doctor. "It's just as good as it gets -- 94.5% is truly outstanding."
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/16/health/moderna-vaccine-results-coronavirus/index.html
November 16th, 2020 at 3:58 PM ^
Really appreciated your Covid Sharpies posts! Any chance you are working on a Covid vaccine post? (pretty please?)
We are not anti-vaxxers, but I'm aware this is the first time this kind of vaccine has been administered on humans. So would love to understand the science better and where things could go wrong in a worst case scenario.
Also, what do you see as the next stage of vaccine advancement after this mRNA development?