Optimism About Tourney Draw
It sucks to lose to MSU for the third time in a row, but the tourney draw provides an easier potential path to the Final Four than any other 2 seed. As some have pointed out already, it is oddly similar to last year's draw in many respects - same side as Montana, Florida State and Gonzaga, potential mid major second round matchup and potential matchup with state of Texas team in sweet 16.
I think Michigan is the best team in their region and simply has an MSU problem this year. Gonzaga has a lot of talent but their schedule doesn't exactly do a great job of preparing them for the tourney. I'm quite hopeful we can make a Final Four run before bowing out to Duke. Who's with me??!!
Sheesh.
28-6, 5th on KenPom, given an 4% chance on five-thirty-eight to win it all (vs 3% last year, 8th highest this yr) = disaster.
I don't think this is BPONE. It's wallowing in the negativity and thoroughly enjoying it.
Yesterday our second half offensive sets were non-existent. He hasn’t been a disaster across the board, but yesterday he was. That was incredibly frustrating to watch. Whatever, it is what it is. Beat Montana.
JFC, we lost to 3 teams this year besides. MSU (who is one of the deepest diverse and best match ups against us b/c they can go big, small, D up, shoot and have the best PG in the NCAA this year. Also Tillman)
That leaves Iowa, Wisc and PSU - all on the road, 2 of which are quality tourney teams. PSU got hot during their stretch and M played them in the dregs of Feb. M has among the top 5 resumes in the nation and is a top 10 team beased on all available judgements.
Now, I don't think the draw is as favorable as ppl think -TT and Gonzaga are legit. Nevada/UF are good teams to have to get thru - they not too over/under seeded and they are experienced tourney teams. But if M gets by TT the Zags have a tough potential match ups as well. Tough thing is, if we do come out of that region, we get MSU or DOOK in the FF instead of the title game
You could have began and ended with Tillman. I still think we're B1G regular season and tournament champs if Ward doesn't get hurt.
People need to ignore all the fake whining by MSU. They have the more favorable first weekend matchups. I'll take Bradley plus another crack at Minnesota.
This is hyperbole but I don’t think beilein really knows what to do with a pg that can’t shoot. He knows zavier has to play but making it work isn’t what he is used to offensively
It is my opinion, and just that, but think the biggest mistake that Beilein has made is not getting Dejulius out there are really a part of the offense. I think he is is probably raw and if anything too aggressive at times and it scares JB because he likes to be very plotting and deliberate. But for those very familiar with DDJs work, he is exactly the kind of jolt player who can generate offense when things get stagnant. He is a very talented naural scorer and, again, just in my opinion, could be giving this team the exact boost it needs right now. Zavier does a lot of things well, but he is a liability on the offensive end when we absolutely need to have points to stop a run and close a team out in a tight one. In all honesty , since the MSU game at Breslin, Even Brooks has looked more apt to shoulder that pressure and get a bucket thanSimpson has.
March 18th, 2019 at 10:12 AM ^
Calling Simpson a liability on the offensive end seems unfair. In the BTT, he just had 30 assists and only 2 turnovers. That is pretty crazy. He also hit 62% of his shots in the tournament; not bad. Is he a dynamic scorer? No. But to call him a liability is a little sensational.
March 18th, 2019 at 10:27 AM ^
Totally agree, which is why it was so frustrating not to see him and others getting more playing time when we were up big in both of our first two tournament games.
March 18th, 2019 at 10:34 AM ^
Just my opinion, but I think that those who want less Simpson are underestimating his value to the offense (as well as how important his defense has been). Simpson is a really smart point guard in the old school sense - bring the ball down the court, set up and orchestrate the offense, read the defense and find guys in a good position to score. I know that in recent years, the PG has also become more of a scorer, but the not too distant history of basketball was filled was awesome PGs who were limited offensively.
Simpson had something like a 30-2 assist to turnover ratio over the BTT. To me, the true value of Simpson is that he values every possession and generally is not responsible for us failing to convert or turning over the ball. He also contributes offensively in spots, and plays awesome defense. DJJ is more of a natural scorer - no doubt about that - but can he fully run the offense the way that Simpson can, and can he handle Simpson's defensive role? Said differently, will the offensive "jolt" from DDJ outweigh or be outweighed by the drop-off in other non-scoring areas (assists, setting up the offense, defense, knowing when to switch, etc.). Not sure of the answer, but I am going to assume that if Beilein is not playing DDJ, he has run this analysis.
March 18th, 2019 at 11:48 AM ^
"Can he fully run the offense the way that Simpson can?"
No, he cannot. But yesterday in the second half was not about running the offense, it was about needing a guy to go get a couple of buckets. Michigan State was switching everything, and the pick and roll had become completely ineffective. We had nothing in iso. We needed a guy who could create his own shot and get baskets. As of the Wisconsin game at Crisler, it looked like that guy was going to be Charles Matthews. Matthews went down and we simply do not have a player to do that right now. Yesterday, we gave a look at Poole as that guy. It got ugly. I mean, this is largely a moot conversation because this BTT made it clear that Beilein is going to stick with the seven man rotation with Castleton in case of foul trouble. But, damn, I do have the feeling that getting Dejulius into the rotation could have given us a kind of scoring option that we don't have right now.
March 18th, 2019 at 10:23 AM ^
Darrius Morris couldn’t shoot. Last year we had the same PG who couldn’t shoot and we made the championship game. I think Beilein is fine with PGs who can’t shoot
March 18th, 2019 at 11:19 AM ^
The Darius Morris team was fun and surprising but not close to the best offensses we have had
Beilein is not fine with PGs who can't shoot. Coach B's whole offensive scheme is based on having good perimeter shooters at every position and that also includes the center.
It's the reason why we have Teske shooting 3 point shots. We had a fortunate NCAA tournament run last season, because our offense was rather bad for most of those games.
definitely liking our draw and our coaches will have us ready for another run. LFG Blue!!
We won’t get out of the 1st weekend if Matthews doesn’t start playing better. Texas Tech will be a tough game. We cannot fold up like a house of cards like we did yesterday.
Like every MSU game and the Iowa game. This team lacks the temperament of a Championship team.
Matthews did not play very well against Iowa and Minnesota and we face-pounded those team, both solidly in the field tourney teams. I think a lot of Michigan fans are not giving MSU enough credit for how good they are. Unless Michigan has a really bad emotional hangover from the game yesterday (it is possible), I think we will face pound through the first weekend similar to the first two games of the BIG tournament.
Yeah, Texas Tech/Buffalo and that half of the bracket will be a bigger challenge, but I think once those games start we are going to see that they are decidedly not Michigan State. Even with injuries, State is big, they are athletic, they are fast, they have seniors, they rebound, they have one of the top 5 players in the country, they defend like crazy and they give 110% effort.
Right now our fan base is adjudging our team based on losses to what most are perceiving as a "middling" team who is getting lucky. That is not who State is. They are really good and losing to them in a classic does not make Texas Tech this super scary monster team.
I think that Michigan will be slightly vulnerable to a one-off "do you believe in miracles" upset in the first round due to the disappointing finish yesterday, but If they can shake off any lingering mental issues from yesterday they should run that bracket and go the FF. (Where I think it is possible that we could see MSU again).
We are good enough to win the whole thing, but we probably won’t. After the first round the tournament becomes a crapshoot. Playing Nevada will not be easy.
Charles needs to get his confidence.
Jordan needs to become an Alpha.
I have thought this team was built for a deep NCAA run more than a Big Ten Title. The lack of familiarity with our style of play is a huge advantage. Conference teams have years of tapes on motions and principles and it shows in how some teams in the conference seem to stymie us more than others. Our defense will travel no matter the opponent - just need everyone to be locked in (Poole, Iggy). I fully expect the offense to be more fluid in terms of cutting, spacing, and getting open looks as a result of the system and not so much hero ball - see Villanova, UNC, etc.
This team will be better off in tournament play. The lack of familiarity should help, even though there's a rematch in Game 1.
I hope you’re right. I still feel a first weekend exit. I’d be satisfied with Sweet 16.
There's a weirdness to the regions that I don't think was intentional, but I noticed it when I put in brackets based solely on KenPom's AdjO and AdjD numbers.
The West Region has the top two AdjD teams in Texas Tech and Michigan. Five of the top 16 in AdjD (Florida State (9), Florida (14), and Gonzaga (16)) are in the West.
The South Region has three of KenPom's Top Five in AdjO, the top three seeds in Virginia (2), Tennessee (3), and Purdue (5). Simultaneously, the South has tremendous potential for a large number of rock fight games based solely on styles and pace of play.
That said, if Florida gets by Nevada, and Michigan gets past Montana, bet the under, and then some. Michigan is 320 in tempo, Florida is 346, only St. Mary's, Liberty, and Virginia are slower among teams in the field.
I'm fully confident UM will advance to the Round of 32. Beyond that, they'll need Matthews to step up big time.
As uneasy as the prospect of playing Texas Tech makes me, I will agree with others that the relative lack of familiarity with this team might give us a bit of a lift. As still some others point out though, we need a couple guys to play some of the best basketball that they have yet played as well. I think both of these things are part of the mix for potential success here. I would not be totally put out by making it at least to the Sweet 16 either.
It's a good draw for Michigan. That being said I, mostly, couldn't care less about the draw. Play well and win the game!
The pros - Excluding MSU, we haven’t lost a game this season where foul trouble and our core 6 didn’t miss considerable time in game. At Iowa, Wisconsin, PSU odd games.
The Cons - MSU’s 3 losses show some flaws in this team. I think Big Ten is deep, but only MSU is truly really good like us. At Maryland Is solid along with dismantling Iowa and Minnesota in BTT. But really UNC and Purdue throttling last big time wins vs. top 4 seeds.
Also, gives teams the exact film to watch to see how to beat us. Whether they can pull it off? Nobody knows.
Hate to say it but this team will need to grow up a bit if they want to make this a special March and great run. Iggy and Poole, two talented players, can have multiple menta lapses in games on both sides of the floor. GOTTA PUSH THE BALL when JB sees we get stagnant or D is stopping us. Can’t just think it will stop. Three MSU games have shown us that. Especially last 8 min. When your not worried about depth or tired legs. Just gotta get the W.
We definitely had foul trouble in the second MSU game.
Yeah, That game to me is whatever. Got screwed by refs that game. Losing at home and yesterday are the main two questions around this team,
JB said it great in article I read. Good teams don’t give away possessions. MSU didn’t have any or very few bad possessions. Especially last 5 Minutes in crunch time. UM had several, differences between winning abd losing can be 2-3 possessions easily. JB says we got to value each possession.
The issue against State with those cold spells is that refs don't call that many fouls on Michigan State even when there is heavy contact. I think Poole and Iggy wanted to drive it yesterday but they thought they would get mugged and no-called. That is probably what would have happened.
I'm not even going to respond to this because I'm vomiting at all the "anything less than a Final Four means Beilein should get fired" hot takes.
Seriously, this fan base goes beyond ludicrous and into plaid way too often these days.
Where are these hot takes you speak of? I haven’t seen a single one on any NCAA tournament thread on the board.
I agree that we have a good draw. However, I don't ever feel comfortable with any match up. This team could beat anyone or lose to anyone.
if i had to choose a #1 to be paired with, it was Gonzaga
good draw...hopefully they will be able to take advantage
Hmm I somewhat agree, but we matchup well with UNC and their tempo..but ya Gonzaga is 1B to me. MSU drawing Duke in their region is a big kick in the balls to them
IMO, if Duke stays healthy they are expected to win the whole thing....it will be a mega fail if they dont with that roster.
March 18th, 2019 at 10:28 AM ^
Have the potential, for sure. And Michigan absolutely got the easiest bracket. But they've got a tough road to get there.
I suppose we don't know how good Gonzaga really is, but they beat a full-strength Duke so that has to count for something. FSU is improved from last year, then Texas Tech has another incredible defense. Honestly, I'm just worried about getting out of the first week. Nevada is probably underranked, and they have a very athletic team. They'd be an incredibly tough out.
Don't get me wrong, would much rather have to contend with those guys than Duke, Kentucky, UNC, or UVa. Or god forbid, MSU again. But it'll still be a tough road to get there.
For the record, if we do somehow make it to Minneapolis, I don't see any realistic way we get past Duke. Zion would have to be injured again, or their entire starting five would have to come down with chronic diahrrea moments before tip-off. That's not because I think Michigan is that bad. I think Duke is just that good.
March 18th, 2019 at 11:08 AM ^
I like our draw a lot too. Gonzaga is the soft 1 seed and we have the two scary looking mid majors that I really don't think are that good. UB is soft and is going to get manhandled by a good defensive team (us or Texas Tech) and Nevada is overrated too. Both of those teams look nice but their losses are ugly and even some of their wins in conference were ugly.
I think the most likely team to emerge from this region is the FSU/Gonzaga winner, but we've got a great shot again
March 18th, 2019 at 11:16 AM ^
We could lose early. We could go far. Our defense should keep us in every game we play. It will depend on shot selection which plagued us against Michigan State. I don’t think we generally beat ourselves on defense. We decided to give State more open looks and take away the easy 2 point shots they were making the first 2 games. Unfortunately they hit those threes and we didn’t hit enough of ours. We also took some highly questionable shots. Once again State had the decisive run scoring the final 10 points in the last 2+ minutes of the game. I still contend we can beat State if we play again and we can beat anybody we play. At our best we ran off the floor 3 very good teams in Villanova, UNC, and Purdue. We can do this and I hope for our team they accomplish getting to Minneapolis; they deserve it by doing things the right way.
Anything can happen in this Tourney which makes it compelling. Why not us?
March 18th, 2019 at 11:22 AM ^
I like our draw, but I also think that Nevada game is going to be tough. Jazz Johnson is shooting 45% from 3 this season and a blistering 52% over the last month. I think we win that game and maybe I'm too shell-shocked from the McQuaid bombing, but I hope we learn to guard shooters by then.
March 18th, 2019 at 11:29 AM ^
If this team is going to make a run, either Matthews or Poole are going to have to play better to be that second option to Iggy. Also we can't see long stretches of isolation/hero ball on offense. Besides Simpson's shooting I don't actually think this team is deficient from a physical standpoint on the offensive end, but they are deficient in decision making. Foul trouble is the other potential thing that could get them with the depth issues.
March 18th, 2019 at 11:33 AM ^
I think our bracket could be challenging but I didnt know one of Nevada's best players probably wont play so that makes them a little easier. Murray State and Buffalo are good. Gonzaga is real good most people think this is Mark Fews best Gonzaga team ever. Florida State and TT only worry me cause our offense tends not to play well vs. Teams that have good defenses. I hope I am wrong but I just think this is a harder draw then most.
March 18th, 2019 at 12:36 PM ^
We are going to have some tough games early on, and I do not think we can beat FSU or Gonzaga this year. Their size, depth, experience is too much for us this season given our horrendous shooting. We will have to catch fire in that game to have any chance.
The earlier games we can grind out with good to great defense and average to good offense. We may or may not get that from our offense.
If we run into teams that can switch all 5 defenders we are in trouble..if not, we are setup well to execute game plan and win.