NBA draft stock update from tonight

Submitted by PizzaHaus on February 12th, 2014 at 12:35 AM

Chad Ford just updated his board. Stauskas is the only Michigan player making an appearance. 

He's at #16, but then there's this blurb about him: "We may have been premature in putting him so high in the rankings. Lots of scouts have cooled off a bit the past few weeks."

Main takeaway here is that the chances GR3 or Mitch sneaks into the first round are miniscule and unlikely to rise, unless Glenn goes crazy very soon. Nik is in the iffy territory of mid/late first that offers few guarantees. 

Comments

Nick

February 12th, 2014 at 2:15 AM ^

If Austin Hatch is on scholarship next year, Michigan needs to lose one guy through attrition, whether by NBA draft or transfer.

If Hatch is not on scholarship, Michigan can return everyone and still be at 13.

They have 11 this year, so 2 open. They graduate Morgan, taking them down to 10. So Chatman, Doyle, Wilson makes 13.

Michigan whiffing on Booker and Blackmon opened up some scholarship wiggle room.

It all depends on Hatchs status.  I hope he can play for Michigan.

lazyfoot10

February 12th, 2014 at 10:29 AM ^

But something would have to happen, as he said. We'd be over and I don't know what they can do about Hatch but if he's on a legit scholarship, pulling Horford might actually be the only solution. 

Of course you don't want to do it, but if they went over and they couldn't give Hatch some medical scholarship thing, you'd have to pull Horford. Sounds absurd, but there is a possible scenario where that would be the only solution. We went over assuming that someone would leave.

Probably a pointless conversation though, as one of our guys will certainly go the NBA.

 

ish

February 12th, 2014 at 10:21 AM ^

look, we're all rooting for austin hatch.  but i think he's going to be transferred to a medical scholarship regardless of whether there's a scholarship numbers crunch.  if by some miracle hatch is actually able to play, i suspect that JB will be able figure it out some other way without sacrificing his values.

bronxblue

February 12th, 2014 at 10:46 AM ^

By all accounts, one of Mitch, Nik, and GRIII will be going pro.  And if by some crazy circumstance they all return, Beilein will figure it out (I don't think Horford will be given the firm handshake, but I guess that could happen).  But I have a hard time that there will be a scholarship issue with or without Hatch getting his medical.

ClearEyesFullHart

February 12th, 2014 at 9:38 AM ^

We will be lucky if we just lose Stauskus.  Keeping them all is a pipe dream.

In the unlikely event that they were all to return though...Asking Hatch to prep for a year might be in everyone's best interest(as opposed to medicalling him right away).  My sister was in a coma for two weeks and from a physical and academic perspective...For her, every year was more time for the brain to remodel(for damaged functions to be taken over by undamaged regions).  She had to re-learn everything(walking, talking, etc) but now 20+ years later she has a normal life/decent job/beautiful family.

pkatz

February 12th, 2014 at 8:04 AM ^

at this point - he has the athleticism for the NBA but hasn't shown the ability to create his points. Last night certainly didn't help with several misses around the rim and Dakich repeatedly pointing them out to the world. GR3 also had several head-scratching defensive breakdowns; seems like he is getting lost in all phases of the game at times.

Blue in Yarmouth

February 12th, 2014 at 8:50 AM ^

not having credibility doesn't preclude someone from being right once in a while. In this case I agree with the guy (regardless how credible he is) 100%. GRIII should not be anywhere near the first round on anyone's draft boards.

I have watched the guy for two years and he hasn't improved one bit as yet. He actually is shooting 3's worse this year than he did last year, which was his only saving grace then. You can have all the athleticism in the world, but if you don't have some kind of game to go with it, you aren't going to be a first round draft pick (or shouldn't be anyway). He has a lot to prove before I would believe he can be any kind of decent player in the NBA.

What I am saying here isn't intended to bash the guy either. I like GRIII and cheer for him every game. I just get sick of the talk of him being a first round draft pick. Anyone with eyes can see he shouldn't be in that discussion. 

bronxblue

February 12th, 2014 at 10:49 AM ^

draftexpress has GRIII going in the 2nd round, and given his game I don't see how it immensely improves unless he gets much better off the dribble, which seems unlikely.  He's a great athlete with a moderately-evolved game.  I suspect someone will take a chance on him, same with Mitch, just because there is potential there.  But playing in college probably isn't going to help him too much unless the offense completely shifts.

Blue in Yarmouth

February 12th, 2014 at 12:24 PM ^

and one I didn't really factor in when thinking about it. Staying in college only makes sense if you see it as being a platform to improve both your draft stock and overall game. In this offense you're right, unless there is a dramatic change (and why would there be) I don't see staying making much difference for GRIII. Thanks for offering your view. Made me change my thinking on that one. 

aiglick

February 12th, 2014 at 12:48 AM ^

I don't know if we will have room for all of them given the size of the incoming class. I think Stauskas is going to regain his mojo in the coming weeks. He did fairly well tonight. Wisconsin and MSU are going to guard him in a similar way so he'll have a chance to improve and then he'll have a chance to improve over the rest of the regular season and the BTT. It's a fluid situation but I wouldn't be surprised to see McGary back next year simply because he hasn't had the chance to prove what he showed in the Tourney last year. I wonder if this chatter has had an effect on Stauskas. The drop off occured shortly after the dad comments and then him publicly apoligizing for that.

Lucky Socks

February 12th, 2014 at 12:59 AM ^

I think Nik has shown enough to be a late-first round pick regardless of how the rest of the season goes.  He's not going to be drafted to be a superstar or an A+ athlete.  At 25-30, you can't do much better than a sniper with some ball skills and passing ability unless you take a boom/bust guy.  He's a safe pick to be a decent impact guy.  That said, he has plenty he could do to improve his stock.  More time in the weight room, improving defensive form and effort might help him.  He's in a similar position to Burke as a a freshman right now.  Trey obviously managed to raise his stock.  I think Nik might have a draft ceiling no matter what he does next season.  

Glenn is a ton of ability and could go first round for a team taking a flier on potential (i.e. he'd be boom/bust).  Contrary to Nik, he could definitely raise his stock to Top 15 with another year.  

Mitch is in the same boat as Glenn, but for obviously different reasons.  I've never really understood why being 23 is a bad thing as a rookie.  Your first contact is 3-4 years, and he still has plenty of basketball left.  Taking a 20 year old over a 23 year old based on age is taking a weird gamble that they'll both still be productive at like 34 and 37 years old.  I seriously doubt he's a) on your roster anymore, and b) someone you count on for 30 minutes every night...unless you're a terrible GM.  

PizzaHaus

February 12th, 2014 at 1:59 AM ^

It's not about how close they are to decline. It's about potential: a 23 year old dominating a bunch of guys younger than him is significantly less impressive than a 19 year old doing the same in the eyes of NBA scouts. Also, younger guys are perceived as having more room to improve, where older guys are thought of as finished products. 

Lucky Socks

February 12th, 2014 at 2:19 AM ^

You're right, and I see the appeal of an 18 year old phenom.  I just think 23 vs 20, assuming both has had 2+ years in a weight program seem negigible to me (in basketball).  As far as potential, it has merit if you're talking about the #1 pick.  Mitch might have blown his shot at being a lottery pick, but I can see him being a 15-30 pick next year at 23 years old.  Like I wrote above in my opinion about Nik, you're not going to find many guys with superstar potential at that point in the draft anyway.  

TheNema

February 12th, 2014 at 1:00 AM ^

Robinson, Albrecht, McGary, Walton, Stauskas, Horford, Irvin, LeVert, Donnal, Bielfeldt, Chatman, Wilson and Doyle. That's 13 - right on the nose for the scholarship limit.

Hatch will attend school and have a role with the program but will not count against our official scholarship numbers.

 

Lucky Socks

February 12th, 2014 at 1:23 AM ^

God bless the kid, but he's 2-2 from 3PT in High School this season.  I would love to him recover completely and compete at the NCAA level, but it's just not there.  He's been the most realistic about the expectations he has for himself (based on some quotes I've read), but I would be shocked if he played any more than five symbolic minutes.  This is not meant to be douchey, but it is my honest opinion as a objective observer.  I will bet that he receives a medical redshirt and contributes to the MBB program in big ways beyond the active roster.  My only question is whether they can apply the medical redshirt immediately, or if he'll count next year.

To reiterate:  We're all rooting for Austin and he deserves a scholarship (athletic or medical), so whatever it takes to have him at Michigan I am fine with.  I just don't believe his body will allow him to play at Michigan.   

Lucky Socks

February 12th, 2014 at 2:00 AM ^

Easy pal, I was as respectful as I could possibly be.  Nobody is pissing on a dream here. Anyone with a dream is going to have doubters, and I'm sure Austin knows the odds he is facing.  To borrow from the quote you used, it would be a "miracle" if he were to play at Michigan.  As an objective party I can state my opinion on his career prospects.  That is my opinion.  And I doubt my opinion will stop Austin from working towards his goal of a full return.

TO BE CRYSTAL CLEAR:  I am personally rooting for him.  Everyone at Michigan is.  I hope he's in the gym right now working on his comeback.  His recovery and optimism already qualify as miracles in my book, so I don't think he has anything to be ashamed of if he does end up taking a medical redshirt.  I would be proud to call him an employee, colleague, teammate, or hopefully, "Dr. Hatch"

PizzaHaus

February 12th, 2014 at 2:05 AM ^

You should probably inject some reality into whatever world you're living in. He's barely capable of taking the court in high school. 

The indications from every source have been that he won't count against the numbers. John Beilein is not going to tell one of GR3, Nik or Mitch to screw off so he can bring Hatch in on a regular basketball scholarship. He'll still get a full ride to Michigan and be part of the basketball program - there's no reason to be upset about that prospect. 

BraveWolverine730

February 12th, 2014 at 9:00 AM ^

That is not the way that I have understood it. At UMHoops scholarship by class, he's on the list. Beilein said they'd honor his scholarship, not that they'd give him a spot with the team. I beleieve that he'll have a scholarship for one year and in the most likely scenario where he can't compete at high level basketball anymore, will be given a medical hardship waiver and thus keep his scholarship, but not count against our numbers after that. However, in order to do that he has to count against our scholarship numbers for one year meaning we would be over next year if everyone comes back. 

JimmyJuans

February 12th, 2014 at 1:26 AM ^

Obviously. Never said he wasn't. However, remember when he was being recruited and he said something along the lines of Michigan being a football powerhouse and his experience attending the football game being an influential factor? He wanted to have a cool college experience. It's not like he's committed to getting a degree, and there's nothing wrong with that in his circumstance. Coupled with the fact that he's not getting any younger, I don't see how he stays.

johnthesavage

February 12th, 2014 at 1:03 AM ^

He doesn't seem like he's got much to lose. He's gonna be a second round pick it looks like, so why not try to come back strong next year and play himself back up the board. It's not gonna get worse if he gets hurt again -- second round is nothing guaranteed and he'll have to earn his way regardless.

I think actually it makes the most sense for GRIII to go, just because I don't think he's really improving right now, and his athleticism might work better in the NBA than it does in college. Maybe somebody will take a chance on him thinking about how Andre Drummond looked coming out, for example (though I know the position makes a big difference there..). Besides, his biggest asset is just raw athleticism, which he has as much of now as he ever will.

Stauskas on the other hand I think could definitely improve his NBA skillset with another year. He still looks iffy to me on defense and the last couple games he's been forcing some passes and scoring less. But I do think he's the best NBA player of the three right now.

Of the three of them, I'd bet on McGary coming back before the other two. We shall see.

Prince Lover

February 12th, 2014 at 1:18 AM ^

The 3 of them coming back next year, with MSU losing all they lose (assuming Harris leaves) I would love it!!!!

But I wouldn't be upset if that doesn't happen, let the players do what they need to do.

Lucky Socks

February 12th, 2014 at 1:29 AM ^

On paper, MSU will have their least talented team in years (assuming Harris' exit also). Dawson is an All Big Ten 2nd team player, and Costello, Valentine, Trice, Kaminsky, Schilling, and Ellis make up an NCAA level team.  But they've struck out recruiting lately and looking at falling a step behind Michigan, OSU, IU, and Wisconsin on paper.

It's only paper though.