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Posting this up top to be…

Agreed 

Posting this up top to be…

33-17. Garbage time TD tightens it up. We settle for 4 FG’s 

Posting this up top to be…

Posting this up top to be seen - I have 2 tickets available and want to sell them here to avoid any fees. 
section 108 Row 10. The preview image on Seatgeek shows it is near midfield, between the 35 and the 50. 
Looking for $110 each which is a $20+ discount on what’s available on secondary market. 

please reply back if interested with your email and we can work out payment. 

Feels like PSU 9.5 over is…

Feels like PSU 9.5 over is very likely (nothing is a lock with injury chances etc). I feel like we know where that program is right now - good enough to handle to bowl caliber and borderline T25 teams on their schedule, but a bit lacking against the elites. Even if they lose both M/OSU games, just need to beat Illinois and Iowa. Every other game will be a 2tD+ spread

5.5 isn’t bad. I believe the…

5.5 isn’t bad. I believe the season win total was 4.5 earlier in the off-season. Expectations not too high up there 

Sooo does Draftageddon run…

Sooo does Draftageddon run this week or next?

Where are you getting 5…

Where are you getting 5 million annual increases from? The original announcement on the media rights deal was 8 billion over 7 years for the 16 institutions that figure was quoted for. This comes out to 71.4m per school annually. I’m sure there may be increases built in, but I’m guessing they’d be more modest so that the per school average annual payout doesn’t drastically exceed that 71.4 amount

Hey everybody, I am in a…

Hey everybody, I am in a similar spot, volunteering for the event and have 3 extra GA tickets and 1 parking pass for Friday. 
Drop an email below with the requested ticket count and I can transfer the tickets. As a reminder, up to 4 kids <14 get in free per adult. 

Any decline in college hoops…

Any decline in college hoops quality is solely attributable to the lack of John Beilein and Jay Wright coached teams

And the main reason Dallas…

And the main reason Dallas mini-tanked their way out of the play-in picture was to max their chances of keeping a top-10 protected pick. John Hollinger at The Athletic (former Grizzlies GM) often argues that the worst tanking isn’t for the best lottery odds, it’s for trying to finish at a spot in the standings where you’ll stay within the protected range of a pick you traded away. It was a logical move by Dallas, but a very non-competitive one. The league office probably put in a call to ‘Ol Cuban after that.

This will be intriguing. …

This will be intriguing.  Logically, the Big Ten will create a similarly structured opponent matrix where the league will protect a few rivalries and then rotate other matchups on a pre-set basis.

But part of me feels like the conference (and the TV networks with a vested interest) may want to capitalize on the increased anticipation levels in the USC/UCLA additions and get as many high profile matchups as possible in the first few years - combinations of UM/OSU/PSU/Wisc playing USC/UCLA. Throw SOS difficulty and in-conference scheduling parity out the window.

I absolutely loved Wayne…

I absolutely loved Wayne Larrivee growing up. To me, he was synonymous with Michigan Football in the late 90's / early 2000's.  He'd always be on the home games vs bottom tier Big Ten teams that wound up on the original ESPN-Plus.  I didn't have cable growing up and the local ABC or another network would simulcast the ESPN plus streams to the southwest Michigan market.

Michigan-Texas is a home and…

Michigan-Texas is a home and home.  Ann Arbor in 2024, Austin in 2027

South quad dining hall

South quad dining hall

Wisconsin-bama is neutral site

Jerry world I believe

Well

Evan smotrycz would like a word

being able to hack it on the football field is NOT a requirement

Thats on the coach for misevaluating a kids character or talent.  If the player broke no rules, he gets to keep his scholarship.

Those are the guidelines the by the book coaches keep, and any coach who operates under a different premise unevens the playing field and obatins a competitive advantage.

Bottom line is this.... player broke no rules, is academically eligible and wants to stay on scholarship, then guess what, he gets to keep his scholarship.

backdating only matters for the 25 man per year limit

Not the 85 overall cap.  You cant backdate your way out of counting up total guys on scholarship for the 15 football season.

The 85 total cap is the limiting factor here. 85 minus 73 equals 12 total scholarships currently available for the 15 class pending further attrition.

Does anybody know

why Snyder still gets and has always gotten normal access to the basketball program? why isnt he blackballed?

Very limited trade market for Monroe bc he has a no trade clause

Monroe has a 1 year no trade clause because he signed the qualifying offer.  The pistons had to make the qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent.  But since he didnt either sign an offer sheet from another team or agree on a long term deal with Detroit, the only avenue left was signing the one year qualifying offer.  This makes him untradable without his consent this year and an unrestricted free agent next year.  

So any team the trades for him cant offer him an extension because the deadline has passed.  So he will reach free agency no matter what.  This means no team is going to give up anything significant for him.  Hes not an elite player, so teams will just wait til the summer to make a run at him.

reinforcements

Dave Brandon is flying in the Ferguson police dept. as we speak

Most sportsbooks just copy and paste the lines

 

Lines typically orginate first from an offshore sportsbook for games that day or that week.  Of course, they are futures lines like Jamie listed, but these arent for nearly every game.

From what I understand, CRIS and pinnacle are the offshore books that put out lines first and many other sportsbooks duplicate those lines, with some subtle adjustments, usually not more than a half point or some extra vig, to account for the bet patterns of their client base.

For example, a sharp book like pinnacle might open an NFL game team A 6.5 v. team B. And a square or public book might open that same game team A 6.5(120) v. team B (meaning bet 120 to win 100 as opposed to 110 to win 100).  Or if they anticipate even more action on the favorite, they might open team A 7 vs. team B to dissaude too much action on team A.

But in most cases the lines are the same, any differences in the lines are small and the differences get hammered out pretty quickly.  The books that put out opening lines typically have lower bet limits to reduce their exposure to having released a bad number. So there are occassional arbitrage opportunities where two books have different lines simautaneously, but the house edge makes the opportunities difficult to generate a profit for the effort level required.

I go to donbest.com to look at lines, as they have about 15 different books listed.  But there are others with odds screens like vegasinsider.com, pregame.com, covers.com and probably some obvious sites im missing.

 

 
 
It doesnt impact bets already placed

When you place a bet at a sportsbook, that wager stands even if the line moves.

So if you bet Michigan +12.5 vs. MSU right now and at game time the line is Michigan +9, then your bet will be graded as it was when you made the wager.  The line movement is just saying whats available to be bet on now, as opposed to what was available previously.

The most important thing in betting is getting the best of the number.

So, you will be a +EV  bettor long term if the line moves in favor of the team you bet on.

31 to 24

Michigan 31

Utah 24

Teasers are very rarely valuable

Unless, youre teasing across both 3 and 7, its usually not worth it.   

Teaser sides have to each hit about 72% or more to be profitable.  .72 X .72 = .5184, which should be around break even point if standard vig.

If you think plus 11 is a good bet, take that. But moving from 11 to 17 or 17.5 doesnt shift your probability of winning that leg of the bet by enough to be worth it.

In general, I would only tease in lower scoring games with spreads in single digits.

just my opinion, though. Have fun betting a safe amount.

I am hoping that they do a delayed home and home like this
22 Home v. ucla,              @Opponent1
23 @ucla,                         Home v. Opponent2
24 Home v. Opponent1,   @Opponent2
 
Not sure if this is article you were referencing.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/rule-5-dark-horse-j-d-martinez/

 

Its very detailed and breaks down changes in his swing plane.

I think we would take a big in 15.

And only one of McQuaid and Coleman. Assuming a 3 man class and the 4 spot filled by transfer

Yes

This kid is incredible. I've been reading about him for a while. Great shooter and playmaker. Pretty damn good athlete as well. I think if he played HS in US he'd be a top 10 recruit

DJ Wilson

he is going to play the 4 at Michigan.

Hes 6 foot 8 with pretty good vertical athletecism.

If you dont think he gets the bulk of his minutes at the 4, you havent been paying close enough attention to JBs tenure at MIchigan.

And I think Donnal gets most of the backup 5 minutes in lieu of Bielfeldt or Doyle. 

When in doubt and when there are minutes up for grabs, Beilein tends towards guys with more perimeter skills.  I really really think Wilson is going to play a lot this year, even more so if MItch leaves, which would bump Donnal up to starting at the 5.  Shoot, if MItch leaves, Chatman may even start at the 4.

its

probably the nbadraft.net guy

Mercer Mercer Mercer Mercer Mercer

Mercer  Mercer Mercer Mercer Mercer Mercer

81st in Kenpom or 7th.  77th in sagarin or 20th. This isnt even close.  I think we know Tennesse isnt quite the 7th best team in the country, but theyre atleast top 25. The gap is pretty large between the two teams.

I think of Manny Harris too

not in the sense that hes the only one I think of, just the first one, because I think of that 09 season, my senior year.

when this happened

Jalen and Rembert starting yelling “eff yo couch” ala dave chappelle.

Seriously?

Nik Caris screens would just get switched every time. Then it'd be an isolation or have to get into another action.

it actually depends

If Austin Hatch is on scholarship next year, Michigan needs to lose one guy through attrition, whether by NBA draft or transfer.

If Hatch is not on scholarship, Michigan can return everyone and still be at 13.

They have 11 this year, so 2 open. They graduate Morgan, taking them down to 10. So Chatman, Doyle, Wilson makes 13.

Michigan whiffing on Booker and Blackmon opened up some scholarship wiggle room.

It all depends on Hatchs status.  I hope he can play for Michigan.

my god

this cant be real

I think the intuitiveness of going by 3pt allowed

rather than by % allowed is that teams tend to shoot threes when they are open, and dont when they arent... thus most teams have a roughly similar distribution of the opennesss of attempts agaisnt them.  Thus measuring attempts would imply a certain amount of each type... open, semi contested and heavily contested.  And that % allowed is highly variant and that most teams havent played enough games for that to normalize, and likely wont by the end of the year.

This draft isnt acutally that deep

It just has 6 to 7 possible franchise players at the top of it.

Embiid, parker, wiggins, randle, exum, smart, gordon... after that a big dropoff to guys like Saric, G Harris, Cauley Stein, ZLavine, Vonleh, Hood, GR3, James young, Selden, Harrison twins, Dekker, payne, 

Yeah

I haven't heard anything either way about which way Mitch is leaning. And I don't think Mitch's rehab would be sufficiently different depending on his draft preferences.

Nbadraft.net is a joke

Don't use that site. look at espn chad fords stuff and draft express

Yeah I dont know

if they were only switching off ball screens, or if they were switching on ball screens as well.

Regardless, Irvin wasnt in position to switch and prevent penetration or to hedge, whatever th assignment was.  I wish someone could ask Beilein about that play so we can properly allocate blame and credit.

But yes, Stauskas was weak at the end, and shoulda made more effort to box out Smith once it was clear petteway was past him and Smith was his man on the roll.

Stauskas defensive criticism last play

I want to address this.  I dont think its as simple as saying he got blown by.

Nebraska runs a screen the screener action.  Irvins man sets an off ball screen on GR3, freeing Robinsons man to go set a ball screen for petteway on Stauskas.

In theory, this is intended to eliminate the hedge help and allow penetration, because GR3 would have to fight over the off ball screen just to get in position to defend the ball screen and may not get to the right spot or be off balance. However, Michigan switches everything as they often do on last possessions.  Irvin doesnt quite communicate in time and is caught too low to help on the action.  

Its easier to see in the highlight vid on mgoblue.com than in the gif above, but if you pause it when petteway crosses the 3pt line, Irvin should be a few feet higher and wider and thus petteway would either have to retreat dribble or pass it off.  

I actually thought Stauskas did a good job of locking and trailing around the screen, which never actually got set, but he had to take that angle around the screen in anticipation of it.  Its clear by Niks positioning that they are forcing him to use the screen, rather than pushing the ball handler baseline, so Nik is expecting help middle.  It just never comes because of Nebraskas off ball action made Irvin a split second late.  Good play drawn up by Tim Miles, and it works in part because it makes Irvin, a wing, the big man defender in a ball screen, a role to which he is largely unnacustomed.

Yep Nebraska much improved

Mich was a 5.5 pt fave at the sportsbooks, and projected to win by 4 by Kenpom ( which doesn't know about McGarys injury). 1pt win isn't that far off expectations and if Mich had made free throws or Nebraska didn't go crazy from 3 they'd have been right on. Still lotta issues on D guarding screen roll that need to be fixed. But I expect Nebraska is better than NW an PSU and could compete with purdue for 9th in league.

Im thinking

that maybe DB and Hoke planeed to keep Borges around unless one of a specified list of slam dunk candidates became available or had interest.  Given the timing was after the bowls, and Nussmeier was hired within hours of Borges firing, you have to believe they had an agreement with Nuss before firing Borges.

If they actually did adopt that maybe or maybe not keep Borges plan, Im not sure I agree with that. Let him go or dont, dont let it be contingent on X happening.  If youre even asking yourself the question if someones the right fit, usually its time to move on.

A better deal in my mind, not

A better deal in my mind, not in Dombrowskis.  Im sure he thought this was the best deal he could get.  I disagree because I think he values Robbie Ray more highly than most scouts do.

I said that if they didnt have a deal better than this, they should have just kept Fister... but Dombrowski went into the offseason with the plan of trading a starter and didnt deviate from it.  The return was obvioulsy good enough for him... but most out there are calling it a bad return.  

Dombrowski has a great trading history, but just saying that we should trust him no matter what he does is an appeal to authority and leaves no room for reasonable criticism.

For anyone that cares about such things

You can go to Treys nba.com player page and view video of every single statistical play he has recorded this year.

 

http://stats.nba.com/playerGameLogs.html?PlayerID=203504&pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=25

 

So you can click on FGA, if you want to see all attempts from that game, or AST if you want to see all his assists from a particular game.  pretty cool new feature the league implemented this year.

The Fister trade was trash
The structure of Fister for prospects was fine. But you trade him to maximize return, not fill back of the bullpen and utility infielder holes.  Dombrowski could have gotten back better prospects and still filled those holes internally or through the free agent bargain bin later this winter.
 
And if you argue thats the best they could have gotten for Fister, well then guess what.... dont fucking trade Fister if youre getting a mediocre package back.  They could have dumped Fisters admittedly small salary in a better deal and still did the Nathan deal.
 
Dombrowski allowed himself to get boxed in by narrowing the constraints of his return to a versatile infielder, a bullpen guy and a pitching prospect, instead of taking the best available prospect package.  I guarantee Robbie Ray isnt the best prospect they couldve gotten for Fister, not even close.
The fuck?

200 BA?

He didnt say no team will draft McGary

He said no team will draft him without thoroughly researching his injury history.

The Celtics obviously knew about Sullingers back issues, but drafted him anyways.

Just like the Spurs drafted Dejaun Blair 4 years ago while knowing he was missing a knee ligament.