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Date Title Body
09/06/2017 - 3:20pm South quad dining hall

South quad dining hall

04/28/2015 - 10:36pm Wisconsin-bama is neutral site

Jerry world I believe

04/22/2015 - 1:55am Well

Evan smotrycz would like a word

01/22/2015 - 5:03pm being able to hack it on the football field is NOT a requirement

Thats on the coach for misevaluating a kids character or talent.  If the player broke no rules, he gets to keep his scholarship.

Those are the guidelines the by the book coaches keep, and any coach who operates under a different premise unevens the playing field and obatins a competitive advantage.

Bottom line is this.... player broke no rules, is academically eligible and wants to stay on scholarship, then guess what, he gets to keep his scholarship.

01/22/2015 - 4:59pm backdating only matters for the 25 man per year limit

Not the 85 overall cap.  You cant backdate your way out of counting up total guys on scholarship for the 15 football season.

The 85 total cap is the limiting factor here. 85 minus 73 equals 12 total scholarships currently available for the 15 class pending further attrition.

01/20/2015 - 3:33pm Does anybody know

why Snyder still gets and has always gotten normal access to the basketball program? why isnt he blackballed?

11/06/2014 - 2:21am Very limited trade market for Monroe bc he has a no trade clause

Monroe has a 1 year no trade clause because he signed the qualifying offer.  The pistons had to make the qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent.  But since he didnt either sign an offer sheet from another team or agree on a long term deal with Detroit, the only avenue left was signing the one year qualifying offer.  This makes him untradable without his consent this year and an unrestricted free agent next year.  

So any team the trades for him cant offer him an extension because the deadline has passed.  So he will reach free agency no matter what.  This means no team is going to give up anything significant for him.  Hes not an elite player, so teams will just wait til the summer to make a run at him.

09/30/2014 - 5:19pm reinforcements

Dave Brandon is flying in the Ferguson police dept. as we speak

09/19/2014 - 1:06am Most sportsbooks just copy and paste the lines

 

Lines typically orginate first from an offshore sportsbook for games that day or that week.  Of course, they are futures lines like Jamie listed, but these arent for nearly every game.

From what I understand, CRIS and pinnacle are the offshore books that put out lines first and many other sportsbooks duplicate those lines, with some subtle adjustments, usually not more than a half point or some extra vig, to account for the bet patterns of their client base.

For example, a sharp book like pinnacle might open an NFL game team A 6.5 v. team B. And a square or public book might open that same game team A 6.5(120) v. team B (meaning bet 120 to win 100 as opposed to 110 to win 100).  Or if they anticipate even more action on the favorite, they might open team A 7 vs. team B to dissaude too much action on team A.

But in most cases the lines are the same, any differences in the lines are small and the differences get hammered out pretty quickly.  The books that put out opening lines typically have lower bet limits to reduce their exposure to having released a bad number. So there are occassional arbitrage opportunities where two books have different lines simautaneously, but the house edge makes the opportunities difficult to generate a profit for the effort level required.

I go to donbest.com to look at lines, as they have about 15 different books listed.  But there are others with odds screens like vegasinsider.com, pregame.com, covers.com and probably some obvious sites im missing.

 

 
 
09/19/2014 - 12:50am It doesnt impact bets already placed

When you place a bet at a sportsbook, that wager stands even if the line moves.

So if you bet Michigan +12.5 vs. MSU right now and at game time the line is Michigan +9, then your bet will be graded as it was when you made the wager.  The line movement is just saying whats available to be bet on now, as opposed to what was available previously.

The most important thing in betting is getting the best of the number.

So, you will be a +EV  bettor long term if the line moves in favor of the team you bet on.

09/17/2014 - 7:59pm 31 to 24

Michigan 31

Utah 24

08/31/2014 - 4:51pm Teasers are very rarely valuable

Unless, youre teasing across both 3 and 7, its usually not worth it.   

Teaser sides have to each hit about 72% or more to be profitable.  .72 X .72 = .5184, which should be around break even point if standard vig.

If you think plus 11 is a good bet, take that. But moving from 11 to 17 or 17.5 doesnt shift your probability of winning that leg of the bet by enough to be worth it.

In general, I would only tease in lower scoring games with spreads in single digits.

just my opinion, though. Have fun betting a safe amount.

08/21/2014 - 1:15am I am hoping that they do a delayed home and home like this
22 Home v. ucla,              @Opponent1
23 @ucla,                         Home v. Opponent2
24 Home v. Opponent1,   @Opponent2
 
06/21/2014 - 5:44am Not sure if this is article you were referencing.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/rule-5-dark-horse-j-d-martinez/

 

Its very detailed and breaks down changes in his swing plane.

04/18/2014 - 3:25pm I think we would take a big in 15.

And only one of McQuaid and Coleman. Assuming a 3 man class and the 4 spot filled by transfer

04/18/2014 - 3:19pm Yes

This kid is incredible. I've been reading about him for a while. Great shooter and playmaker. Pretty damn good athlete as well. I think if he played HS in US he'd be a top 10 recruit

04/15/2014 - 4:06am DJ Wilson

he is going to play the 4 at Michigan.

Hes 6 foot 8 with pretty good vertical athletecism.

If you dont think he gets the bulk of his minutes at the 4, you havent been paying close enough attention to JBs tenure at MIchigan.

And I think Donnal gets most of the backup 5 minutes in lieu of Bielfeldt or Doyle. 

When in doubt and when there are minutes up for grabs, Beilein tends towards guys with more perimeter skills.  I really really think Wilson is going to play a lot this year, even more so if MItch leaves, which would bump Donnal up to starting at the 5.  Shoot, if MItch leaves, Chatman may even start at the 4.

04/10/2014 - 3:48pm its

probably the nbadraft.net guy

03/22/2014 - 8:13pm Mercer Mercer Mercer Mercer Mercer

Mercer  Mercer Mercer Mercer Mercer Mercer

81st in Kenpom or 7th.  77th in sagarin or 20th. This isnt even close.  I think we know Tennesse isnt quite the 7th best team in the country, but theyre atleast top 25. The gap is pretty large between the two teams.

03/06/2014 - 1:32pm I think of Manny Harris too

not in the sense that hes the only one I think of, just the first one, because I think of that 09 season, my senior year.

03/06/2014 - 1:27pm when this happened

Jalen and Rembert starting yelling “eff yo couch” ala dave chappelle.

02/16/2014 - 4:15pm Seriously?

Nik Caris screens would just get switched every time. Then it'd be an isolation or have to get into another action.

02/12/2014 - 2:15am it actually depends

If Austin Hatch is on scholarship next year, Michigan needs to lose one guy through attrition, whether by NBA draft or transfer.

If Hatch is not on scholarship, Michigan can return everyone and still be at 13.

They have 11 this year, so 2 open. They graduate Morgan, taking them down to 10. So Chatman, Doyle, Wilson makes 13.

Michigan whiffing on Booker and Blackmon opened up some scholarship wiggle room.

It all depends on Hatchs status.  I hope he can play for Michigan.

01/30/2014 - 2:39pm my god

this cant be real

01/22/2014 - 3:56pm I think the intuitiveness of going by 3pt allowed

rather than by % allowed is that teams tend to shoot threes when they are open, and dont when they arent... thus most teams have a roughly similar distribution of the opennesss of attempts agaisnt them.  Thus measuring attempts would imply a certain amount of each type... open, semi contested and heavily contested.  And that % allowed is highly variant and that most teams havent played enough games for that to normalize, and likely wont by the end of the year.

01/21/2014 - 3:15am This draft isnt acutally that deep

It just has 6 to 7 possible franchise players at the top of it.

Embiid, parker, wiggins, randle, exum, smart, gordon... after that a big dropoff to guys like Saric, G Harris, Cauley Stein, ZLavine, Vonleh, Hood, GR3, James young, Selden, Harrison twins, Dekker, payne, 

01/16/2014 - 8:31am Yeah

I haven't heard anything either way about which way Mitch is leaning. And I don't think Mitch's rehab would be sufficiently different depending on his draft preferences.

01/16/2014 - 8:26am Nbadraft.net is a joke

Don't use that site. look at espn chad fords stuff and draft express

01/10/2014 - 6:45pm Yeah I dont know

if they were only switching off ball screens, or if they were switching on ball screens as well.

Regardless, Irvin wasnt in position to switch and prevent penetration or to hedge, whatever th assignment was.  I wish someone could ask Beilein about that play so we can properly allocate blame and credit.

But yes, Stauskas was weak at the end, and shoulda made more effort to box out Smith once it was clear petteway was past him and Smith was his man on the roll.

01/10/2014 - 4:49pm Stauskas defensive criticism last play

I want to address this.  I dont think its as simple as saying he got blown by.

Nebraska runs a screen the screener action.  Irvins man sets an off ball screen on GR3, freeing Robinsons man to go set a ball screen for petteway on Stauskas.

In theory, this is intended to eliminate the hedge help and allow penetration, because GR3 would have to fight over the off ball screen just to get in position to defend the ball screen and may not get to the right spot or be off balance. However, Michigan switches everything as they often do on last possessions.  Irvin doesnt quite communicate in time and is caught too low to help on the action.  

Its easier to see in the highlight vid on mgoblue.com than in the gif above, but if you pause it when petteway crosses the 3pt line, Irvin should be a few feet higher and wider and thus petteway would either have to retreat dribble or pass it off.  

I actually thought Stauskas did a good job of locking and trailing around the screen, which never actually got set, but he had to take that angle around the screen in anticipation of it.  Its clear by Niks positioning that they are forcing him to use the screen, rather than pushing the ball handler baseline, so Nik is expecting help middle.  It just never comes because of Nebraskas off ball action made Irvin a split second late.  Good play drawn up by Tim Miles, and it works in part because it makes Irvin, a wing, the big man defender in a ball screen, a role to which he is largely unnacustomed.

01/09/2014 - 11:44pm Yep Nebraska much improved

Mich was a 5.5 pt fave at the sportsbooks, and projected to win by 4 by Kenpom ( which doesn't know about McGarys injury). 1pt win isn't that far off expectations and if Mich had made free throws or Nebraska didn't go crazy from 3 they'd have been right on. Still lotta issues on D guarding screen roll that need to be fixed. But I expect Nebraska is better than NW an PSU and could compete with purdue for 9th in league.

01/09/2014 - 5:43pm Im thinking

that maybe DB and Hoke planeed to keep Borges around unless one of a specified list of slam dunk candidates became available or had interest.  Given the timing was after the bowls, and Nussmeier was hired within hours of Borges firing, you have to believe they had an agreement with Nuss before firing Borges.

If they actually did adopt that maybe or maybe not keep Borges plan, Im not sure I agree with that. Let him go or dont, dont let it be contingent on X happening.  If youre even asking yourself the question if someones the right fit, usually its time to move on.

12/03/2013 - 3:05pm A better deal in my mind, not

A better deal in my mind, not in Dombrowskis.  Im sure he thought this was the best deal he could get.  I disagree because I think he values Robbie Ray more highly than most scouts do.

I said that if they didnt have a deal better than this, they should have just kept Fister... but Dombrowski went into the offseason with the plan of trading a starter and didnt deviate from it.  The return was obvioulsy good enough for him... but most out there are calling it a bad return.  

Dombrowski has a great trading history, but just saying that we should trust him no matter what he does is an appeal to authority and leaves no room for reasonable criticism.

12/03/2013 - 1:59pm For anyone that cares about such things

You can go to Treys nba.com player page and view video of every single statistical play he has recorded this year.

 

http://stats.nba.com/playerGameLogs.html?PlayerID=203504&pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=25

 

So you can click on FGA, if you want to see all attempts from that game, or AST if you want to see all his assists from a particular game.  pretty cool new feature the league implemented this year.

12/03/2013 - 1:52pm The Fister trade was trash
The structure of Fister for prospects was fine. But you trade him to maximize return, not fill back of the bullpen and utility infielder holes.  Dombrowski could have gotten back better prospects and still filled those holes internally or through the free agent bargain bin later this winter.
 
And if you argue thats the best they could have gotten for Fister, well then guess what.... dont fucking trade Fister if youre getting a mediocre package back.  They could have dumped Fisters admittedly small salary in a better deal and still did the Nathan deal.
 
Dombrowski allowed himself to get boxed in by narrowing the constraints of his return to a versatile infielder, a bullpen guy and a pitching prospect, instead of taking the best available prospect package.  I guarantee Robbie Ray isnt the best prospect they couldve gotten for Fister, not even close.
11/21/2013 - 12:28am The fuck?

200 BA?

11/12/2013 - 5:57pm He didnt say no team will draft McGary

He said no team will draft him without thoroughly researching his injury history.

The Celtics obviously knew about Sullingers back issues, but drafted him anyways.

Just like the Spurs drafted Dejaun Blair 4 years ago while knowing he was missing a knee ligament.

11/12/2013 - 2:08am OK

but its never too early for a revised depth chart

10/15/2013 - 3:09am I dont know if he explicitly said it

but I highly doubt hed throw a fit over it.

I think the more interesting question pertains to the constraints with which Borges is working.  Are predictable 1st down runs from under center Hoke mandated?  It seems the lack of QB depth is affecting entire gameplans to their detriment, not allowing them to run backside read option or inverted veer as much as they should.

 Is the failure to install any constraint plays a systematic stubborness on Borges part?  They have occasional counters but only seem to use them once and then abandon it, and the counters they do have arent the best way of addressing the issue.  For example, their counter to linebackers overpursuing the stretch play is to run a counter play to the same side, which is all fine and dandy if they didnt have 8 in the box ready to negate any advantage you gained.  They refuse to run a bubble screen or any other similar method of taking the yards by alignment that the DEFENSE IS GIVING YOU!!!  A bubble or similar WR screen play shouldnt be a predetrmined playcall, it should be a fucking check at the line that a 12 year old QB can make when he sees 1 corner on 2 recievers or corners playing way off.

There is a fundamental stubborness to establishing their under center run game.  These coaches dont seem to realize what they are best at, or they know what theyre doing is suboptimal and ignore it.

If I was Dave Brandon, Id be having a long talk to Hoke about fixing the offense and its structural approach, and trying to glean if the problems start with Hoke boxing Borges into a philosophy they dont have the talent to execute, or if the problem is Borges refusing to accept the easiest ways of doing things given his perssonel (shotgun, spread run game, playaction in spread sets off run fakes and not just easy to read max protect pa from under center on 2nd and 11)

I dont like Borges and wouldnt revolt if he were gone, but my worst fear is that the offensive issues are more Hoke influenced than we realize. Given that Borges isnt afraid to sling it downfield, he doesnt seem the type to run into the line for 1 yard a pop over and over again.  I like Hoke because of the following: hired Mattison, helped fix the D, recruiting his ass off, is a probability smart in game coach, seems to be a good leader, understands Michigans traditions.  However I was concerned that when he talked about returning to Michigan football, hed take it so far as to be delusional about their ability to play that manball style.  Gameplans like the ones Brian laid out above reek of joint Hoke Borges efforts to manball it up at all costs and dont stop until youre on the verge of losing.
10/11/2013 - 8:52pm blergh

penn state 24 Michigan 20

10/11/2013 - 3:39pm Actually on bovada

they profile each bettor and shade lines towards what their model thinks youre likely to bet... They deal different lines to different bettors.

Ever notice you go to their odds screen and then login and the numbers are different?

Ive had no problems with getting timely payouts from them, but I would get a sharp book like pinnacle as well as bovada.  plus bovadas juice or commission on in game wagering is obscene.

10/06/2013 - 3:26am seriously

hahahahhahahahahha

10/04/2013 - 8:22am Michigan 24 Minnesota 14

Michigan 24 Minnesota 14

09/27/2013 - 5:37pm bcook criticism

I missed the part where Brian claimed he knew more than the coaches.  

As if offering suggestions on the structure and decision making within the offense is a claim of authority on the matter, even above that of the coaches.

I guess the coaches are infallible. 

Rich Rods/gergs defenses are free to be picked apart and a means for his firing (both rightfully so). 

Yet a flailing Borges/hoke offense that looks and feels like a grab bag of stuff from every which realm of offensive coaching and has a debatably incoherent and illogical setup is off limits to legitimate researched criticism? 
 
cmom man.
09/26/2013 - 2:32pm This is just posturing

Nobody is paying him that much.  Especially with the Yankees reigned in payroll.

Think of it this way... Cano isnt turning down 10 years 250 million if anybody offers that, so no need to go much higher.

09/25/2013 - 11:14pm Yeah

I think Bolden is on another level from the other combo forward options

09/25/2013 - 2:55pm Big Boutros

is one of the greatest posters in internet history

09/24/2013 - 2:15am If I had to guess

I would say that the people who skip games are those to didnt grow up rooting for Michigan football passionately.

Maybe its an academically focused kid, or a person who just wants to keep tailgating or partying, or an out of state student who is sort of adopting Michigan as his team because he now attends the school.

A bunch of people who bought tickets becuase they know its the thing to do on Saturdays or because we have a good basketball team, but who dont make it a priority.

It would be interseting to see if more student tickets are being sold, thus watering down the % of students who really care, or if about the same amount of student tickets are sold per capita, and it really is a problem of passion for Michigan sports.

Or it could be the same issue pro sports leagues are facing with so much new technology, watching on the couch with a flat screen and following convo on twitter and blogs etc. is just more relaxing.

09/24/2013 - 2:03am No man

the problem with selling just 3000 seats is that you cannot selectively remove all the people who wont show up.  If you only get 54% attendance, selling fewer tickets might give you an incrementally higher % attendance like 65% or so, but you would still have like 1000 empty seats in that scenario.

It is the same way when airlines overbook their flights, knowing that a certain small % of passengers wont wind up making it or have to reschedule or whatever.  Sure they risk everyone making it and thus having an overbooked flight and ticking some people off.  But then they give out discounts or free airline miles or free tickets or whatever to make the problem go away.

Any student who consistently no showed games last year has no logical case to complain, though they may have a legal right to complain.  But I dont know why people would much care that they are satisfied customers given their checkered attendance history.

09/24/2013 - 1:53am dude cmon

What if some rich guy bought up every ticket in Michigan Stadium for himself.  

Then nobody would be in the stadium for the game.

Is it OK for him to do what he wants because he paid for them?  I doubt youd answer yes to this hypothetical.

This is just a similar problem on a much smaller scale.

The athletic department is using an arguably distateful tactic, but I kind of like it.

The students eroded the trust of the AD by no showing after purchasing a scarce commodity, and the AD is taking a stand.  We know the AD is a big money grubber, but I believe this move was made with stadium atmosphere as its primary intent, not incremental revenue.

I cant believe some people are so concerned about the ability of people with laissez faire attitudes about attending games to waste more precious space in the stadium.