pinkfloyd2000

November 18th, 2018 at 6:00 PM ^

I know I'm feeling better about this game than in years past when I actually WANT it to be close to ideal weather conditions. In past years, I have hoped for blizzards, monsoons -- you name it. Not so much now. 

Let's hope that this rain holds off, or is very light. 

Perkis-Size Me

November 18th, 2018 at 6:13 PM ^

I see what you’re saying, but I think rain would hurt OSU more than us. Rain affects a team’s ability to pass consistently, which is OSU’s strength this season. And their run game is much worse this year than in year’s past. Not that it’s terrible, but just much less lethal.

In a rainstorm, where both teams have to resort to their run game to move the ball, I think that suits Michigan better than OSU. Just have to take care of the ball.

jbrandimore

November 18th, 2018 at 6:03 PM ^

I would say they are baiting people into betting on OSU.

The question remain - is encouraging bets on a team that has won 17/18 in a rivalry a great idea?

We will see Saturday.

J.

November 18th, 2018 at 6:13 PM ^

Massey has Michigan -4.  Sagarin has Michigan -0.5 or so.  FPI looks like Michigan -2.

I'd say the spread feels about right.  They're certainly not "baiting" people into taking OSU.  They may not have much of a defense, but that offense is legitimate.  It'll be the toughest test of the season for the defense, ND included.

J.

November 18th, 2018 at 6:51 PM ^

Not really, no.

Oddsmakers walk a tight line between the public and professional sports bettors, known as "sharps."  The public bets on emotion and would absolutely take the past into account; the sharps bet on logic / computer models / etc., and would not.

So, suppose the oddsmakers' best guess was that Michigan would win by 7.  If they then set the line at OSU +3.5, hoping that the public would accept a discount price on OSU due to history, they risk getting hammered by the sharps betting Michigan -3.5.  And while there are a lot more members of the public than there are sharps, the sharps often represent more of the take on a dollar basis (larger average bets).

So, if the line opened at -3.5, the most likely reason is that the models the oddsmakers use show that Michigan is between a 3 and 5 point favorite.  (I added a point to the upper range to account for Chase Winovich's injury status -- they might have dropped a point off of the line due to uncertainty there).

aflapan

November 18th, 2018 at 6:16 PM ^

I'm wondering how much rain would affect the game. The best part of OSU's offense has been their passing game. I trust our run game more than their's, and so I believe a rainy day could be advantageous for us. It would hinder the best part of their offense and leave them with little else to fall back on.

bluepalooza

November 18th, 2018 at 6:25 PM ^

The only hurdle for Michigan in this game is the mental hurdle. They are the better TEAM. They have the better defense. They have everything, including momentum.  Quite honestly, I actually believe they have the best coaching staff. Just got to get past from thinking they can win to knowing they can win.

I believe everything this team has gone through for 4 years has prepared them for Saturday. This is the first game since Harbaugh has arrived I feel Michigan has the better team. Every other year it seemed Michigan was deficient in one phase of the game. Whether it was QB, Offensive Line, Youth or position coaching, I really believe this years team has every phase of game covered. I wasn't sure about field goal kicking until yesterday and now I believe that is covered as well.

It has been long enough that the football gods have made Michigan suffer.

Michigan wins 34 27  GO BLUE