justingoblue

November 11th, 2012 at 9:31 PM ^

Oh...right. Damn you, Nebraska and your easy end of conference schedule!

Seriously though, 21 sounds fair at the moment, although the SEC taking spots numbers 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9 is crazy.

AmaizeingBlue

November 11th, 2012 at 9:31 PM ^

Michigan needs to jump 7 spots for a potential BCS at large berth.  It's not really a moot point.    There's a very real possibility that we get to the top 14 if we can win out.  Especially since the computers seem to love us and have us ranked 16th.

justingoblue

November 11th, 2012 at 9:51 PM ^

The issue then is more with the pick order and who qualifies. If ND finishes in the top eight, they get a spot along with the other autobids. Louisiana Tech gets an autobid if the BE champion (or possibly B1G champ at this point) finishes ranked sixteenth or below, and the SEC is all but assured two teams.

Assuming Oregon and Kansas State go to the title game, the Rose and Fiesta pick first, probably taking ND and SEC number two. After that, the pick order goes Fiesta then Sugar then Orange for the rest of the at-large spots, with at least one (possibly two if LT can make it in) already decided. If we're looking at teams near the top fourteen who would still be available, that's the ACC number two (FSU or Clemson), us, Stanford, Oklahoma (I doubt Texas gets picked over Oklahoma) and maybe USC.

I'd say if we're elegible and LT doesn't get an autobid, we'd have to be more attractive to the Fiesta than any of these other teams (Sugar would have to take M two years in a row, Orange gets the BE champ). That's possible, but if USC and Oklahoma are in the mix it's definitely not a given.

justingoblue

November 11th, 2012 at 10:10 PM ^

Oklahoma would still be a tough draw to beat out for the Fiesta committee. They'll be favored heavily in their final three games (WVU, OSU, TCU) and winning out would make them 10-2 compared to our 9-3, plus they're a fixture in the Fiesta Bowl (which I guess could hurt, but they'd be more of a sure thing I think).

Also, what I didn't mention above (maybe because I can't think why this would happen) is that this is predicated on the Rose getting to pick ND. If, for some reason, the SEC second team ends up in the Rose we won't get a rematch with ND in the desert, which leaves only the Sugar which we played in last year.

funkywolve

November 11th, 2012 at 11:19 PM ^

a couple other things to think about.  If KState and Oregon are in the title game you gotta figure the Fiesta grabs ND.  The Fiesta isn't going to want an ND-UM rematch and if Alabama wins the SEC, the Sugar probably isn't going to want a rematch either. 

The last item is no one wants the Big East champ - they'll be the left team left.  If KState and Oregon make the title game, the odds of a 9-3 UM getting an at-large aren't that good unless Georgia wins the SEC or the Fiesta for some reason passes on ND.

Muttley

November 11th, 2012 at 11:03 PM ^

A couple of facts:

    • There are 10 BCS spots

    • Each conference is limited to two participants

The ESS-EEE-SEE currently occupies 6 of the top 14 spots. Moreover, ALL six can win out in the regular season. The only guaranteed ESS-EEE-SEE loss is in the championship game, and it's really unlikely that likely participants #4 Alabama or #5 Georgia would drop out of the top 14 with a loss. If the ESS-EEE-SEE hogs six spots and we make the Top 14 and Lousiana Tech doesn't bump us (Go Louisville, make the Top 14), then as strange as it sounds, I believe we're in.

As to moving up seven spots:

  • PAC-10 (4 spots)
    • Oregon is likely to hang losses on
        • Stanford
        • Oregon St
        • South div winner (UCLA/USC)
    • USC/UCLA play each other
    • Stanford/UCLA play each other
    • USC also plays ND

  • Louisiana Tech(1 spot)
    • LT (Sagarin #52 predictor, 73.50) finishes w/
        • Utah St (8-2, #21 83.19)
        • San Jose St (8-2, #32 78.47)

  • tCFKA the "Big 12" (1 effective spot)
    • Oklahoma (12 BCS) games left
        • @WVU
        • vs @24 Okla St
        • @TCU
    • Texas (12 BCS) games left
        • vs TCU
        • @ #1 KSU
    • If they both stay ahead of us, only 1 can go

  • ACC (the long shot, need 1 more spot)
    • Florida St (10 BCS, 9-1) games left
        • @MD
        • vs @#6 Florida
    • Clemson (11 BCS, 9-1) games left
        • vs NCSt
        • vs #9 S. Carolina

funkywolve

November 11th, 2012 at 9:46 PM ^

The teams in front of UM all have big games left.  USC and UCLA play this weekend.  The winner will probably play Oregon in the Pac-12 title game.  Texas has to go to Kansas St.  Oregon St still has Oregon.  Stanford still has Oregon and Lousiville and Rutgers still have to play each other.

While it's all predicated on UM winning out, if UM can win out they'll probably be right around  the Top 14.  Since a conference can only put 2 teams in the BCS and the SEC has 6 teams in the Top 14, it really limits the pool of at large teams the bowls will have to choose from.

mGrowOld

November 11th, 2012 at 9:32 PM ^

With the SEC holding down the #4 to #9 spots I fear that if the current top three lose a game we will be forced to endure yet another SEC v SEC MNC game.  Personally I'm holding out the most hope for Oregon to break up that party as I see ND losing to USC and I fear K State could lose to either Baylor or Texas if Klein goes down again.

Hell the way the BCS computers slather love on the teams from the SEC I could even see one of the one loss teams leapfroging two of the undefeateds following their Championship game.

MaizeyBlue

November 11th, 2012 at 9:39 PM ^

I think this top 14 scenario is very interesting.  All of those teams in the SEC and only 2 can go to a BCS game.  By my math:

Obviously matchups don't mean anything:

K-state v. oregon

ND v. Nebraska

Louisville v. Florida State

Alabama v Oklahoma

LSU v Clemson

With the only other team available being Stanford (to replace Oklahoma or Clemson), but if they lose to Oregon, they will more than likely fall from the top 14.

 

My prediction is BEAT ohio, and back to the Sugar bowl vs. LSU!!!

IMF

November 11th, 2012 at 9:42 PM ^

As a fan, I'm still not too worried about rankings at this point. For the past several years I have been getting tired of seeing Michigan lose to MSU and Iowa. Last year, the Iowa loss was one where I thought Michigan was the better team but just not on that day. I hope the team steps up next week and shows Iowa that the last 3 years are not happening again for some time.

Perkis-Size Me

November 12th, 2012 at 7:49 AM ^

If we can't beat Iowa this year something is seriously wrong. Iowa has been getting steadily worse over the last few years, and this year their team is pretty bad. It'll be Senior Day and Denard's last game. If things go the way they should, we could put a beating on the Hawkeyes.

corundum

November 11th, 2012 at 10:08 PM ^

Guess who 4, 5, and 6 play this week. Western Carolina, Georgia Southern, and Jacksonville State, respectively. Talk about tough matchups for the SEC.

 

#8 TAMU plays Sam Houston State, #9 South Carolina plays Wofford, and #7 LSU plays the only non-cupcake (?) Ole Miss.

Logan88

November 12th, 2012 at 9:49 AM ^

In the BCS era, that is actually vey smart scheduling. You can always recover from an early loss, but a loss late in the season is more likely to knock you out of BCS at-large contention.
The transition to a true playoff might lessen the impact of the "early loss better than late loss" model somewhat.