Michigan at #13 in CFP, move up 2 spots
Title says it all. Top 7 didn’t change, same order. Oklahoma only moved up 1 spot which was cool to see.
Only Florida at 11 and Wisconsin at 12 are above UM with 2 losses.
I like hypotheticals and this is a message board, so what the heck. Anybody think UM has any shot at the top 4 even if they win out? Seems like an OSU blowout this weekend, and UM a convincing win over them would bump them pretty high. Not saying high enough, but worth the debate. Thoughts?
November 19th, 2019 at 8:24 PM ^
Surprise surprise 3 sec teams in the top 5. There’s no way in finebaum heaven that uga would go .500 if they had to play teams 5-10
November 20th, 2019 at 9:57 AM ^
Da fuq???
How does UGA make the top 4 with that horrendous loss at home to an un-ranked Gamecocks team when PSU and the Gophers have better losses??? Hell even Bama has a better loss and is behind them...
November 19th, 2019 at 8:25 PM ^
Wishful thinking, but it would be tough to get to 4. Might have us thinking about Roses!
November 19th, 2019 at 8:35 PM ^
You can't plant potatoes one day and expect to have potato salad the next
November 19th, 2019 at 8:36 PM ^
I hate when people put Rose-ins in their potato salad
(I'm sorry, I hate me too)
November 19th, 2019 at 10:53 PM ^
I wish MGoUser "Shrute Beet Farms" was still active on MGoBlog, I'm pretty sure he once said he can plant beets one day and enjoy them pickled the next.
...or maybe he meant he can enjoy them when HE is pickled the next day?
November 19th, 2019 at 11:19 PM ^
I just bought potato salad today and have never planted potatoes.
Therefore: never say never to the CFP!
November 20th, 2019 at 8:53 AM ^
I'm glad you pointed out the logical error in Harbaugh's potato metaphor. You can plant potatoes one day and enjoy potato salad the next. You just have to plant potatoes and then buy potato salad from a store the next, or make potato salad from potatoes you have previously planted and harvested.
Not sure why the lamestream media isn't addressing Harbaugh's attempt to smear the good potatoes of America.
BOOM FINEBAUM'D
November 19th, 2019 at 9:12 PM ^
Get rid of a regular season game and make the playoff 16 teams like EVERY other division of CFB.
The whole idea of only 4 teams at the inception of the playoff was to make sure 'the best 4 teams play in the playoff.' But teams greatly improve/worsen throughout the season. The regular season would not be devalued if the higher seeds hosted home playoff games, and you would have less players rightly sitting out for meaningless bowl games. You could still have bowl games for teams not in the playoff so they could benefit from additional practice time, just as they do now.
The playoff is undoubtedly going to expand at some point in the near future, likely to 6, then maybe 8. Just make it 16 already.
EDIT: every other division has AT LEAST 24 teams
November 19th, 2019 at 9:38 PM ^
One reason I like this idea is seeing better matchups as a fan. The 4 playoff system sets up teams to not play anyone In none conference and try to win those 2-3 key games. How many weekends this year have we looked at the schedule thinking this is all we got? Lots of weak weeks. I think 16 would help that a bit. Frankly if not, you know starting around now we start to see a ton each week. Would be exciting as a fan. Right now it’s 4 (so 3 playoff games) in which some cases a team makes it not battle tested. They make it in and get clocked. Feel like that happens regularly. Reality is we as a fan get 1 really good game, that’s usually the CFP final. I want more!!
November 19th, 2019 at 9:57 PM ^
What’s funny is the CFP was supposed to fix the cream puff schedule. It has done the opposite.
November 20th, 2019 at 12:25 AM ^
That's because the committee hasn't stayed true to their charter. They used to state, but it's gone from their website now, that SOS mattered.
Teams were lining up good OOC games for a bit. That didn't last long.
We are back to the BCS but with 4 teams instead of 2.
November 20th, 2019 at 5:38 AM ^
16 teams wouldn't make the week to week schedule any better. If any part of the first round is played on campus, there is no way any SEC team wants to be in Michigan or Minnesota this Saturday or any Saturday for the rest of the year.
They would continue to schedule weak teams in order to remain ranked at the top of the polls. The voters would help them by stacking all of their teams around the top ten to help them, just as they do now. The larger the field, the better chance the higher ranked team will host the game. No SEC team wants to go on the road north of Kentucky.
November 19th, 2019 at 9:39 PM ^
Every other NCAA division has at least a 24-game playoff.
FCS: 24 teams
D-2: 28 teams
D-3: 32 teams.
I don't care nearly enough about NAIA football to look into that.
November 19th, 2019 at 10:35 PM ^
NAIA is 16 teams.
November 19th, 2019 at 11:00 PM ^
Playoff participants or total teams?
November 19th, 2019 at 11:19 PM ^
playoff participants
November 19th, 2019 at 9:44 PM ^
Nah, the whole season is a playoff which is what makes cfb so great.
November 19th, 2019 at 10:16 PM ^
Except our "playoff" includes OSU, PSU, msu, Wisc, ND, Iowa, etc. Where Clemson's playoff is WF, GT, NC St, Duke, etc, etc...
November 20th, 2019 at 9:49 AM ^
Why do people keep forgetting that Clemson has 2 SEC teams in their non conference schedule this year? That means they made some effort to have a good schedule.
November 20th, 2019 at 10:49 AM ^
Which is really weird because Clemson and Minny have the same SOS.
November 19th, 2019 at 10:17 PM ^
The idea of 6 with 1 and 2 getting byes and 3 and 4 getting HOME GAMES would make the regular season and the playoffs more exciting.
November 19th, 2019 at 10:30 PM ^
I really like 8. First round is top seed gets home field. Getting top 8 is still hard, to say that regular season doesn’t matter is crazy. However, LSU Winning all games gets them hosting say a UM who would finish strong but have 2 loses. College teams play better at home, that would be a huge advantage.
November 19th, 2019 at 10:55 PM ^
I thought the idea of the playoffs was to get at least 2 SEC teams in.
November 19th, 2019 at 11:07 PM ^
16 teams is ridiculous. It’s very unlikely that any team outside the top 6 would be a factor.
November 20th, 2019 at 12:05 AM ^
That's only because there is currently such an extreme lack of parity, a problem that was created by the current system.
November 20th, 2019 at 4:16 AM ^
If it was 16 I would expect teams 7-12 to often be a factor. Why would you say only the top 6 would be a factor ? What is so good about team 6 that doesn’t apply to 10 for example ? That’s BS
November 20th, 2019 at 5:57 AM ^
Start with 16 teams . Cut the Non Conference schedule by 1 game. Give the power 5 conference champions automatic bids. Make many of bowl games playoff venues. More teams MORE interest and more money for everyone. Look at March Madness....
November 20th, 2019 at 7:55 AM ^
I think 16 would be too many playoff games but 8 would be perfect. Each major conference would get their champion in, then 3 spots would be left for the 3 top teams.
November 20th, 2019 at 7:56 AM ^
OSU beats PSU, wins B10 championship
Michigan beats OSU
Oregon or Utah loses next 2, wins Pac12 (3 loss champ)
Georgia loses to A&M and LSU in SEC champ
Baylor loses to Texas but beats Oklahoma in B12 Champ
Minnesota loses to Wisconsin
Alabama loses to Auburn
1) LSU
2) Clemson
3) OSU
4) Baylor/Michigan
November 19th, 2019 at 8:25 PM ^
I don’t think so. Too many 1 loss teams ahead of us. This is where the psu loss really bites us in the ass.
November 19th, 2019 at 9:38 PM ^
Fuck Iowa circa 2016 also
November 20th, 2019 at 1:31 AM ^
It's highly, HIGHLY unlikely but there is a path. It is not impossible.
FiveThirtyEight gives Michigan a 3% chance of making it, IF they win out because it would require all of the below in addition to Michigan winning out:
> Wisconsin beats Minnesota and then loses to OSU in the B1G title game. OSU beats PSU and loses big to M. This eliminates Minnesota and Wisconsin and PSU.
>Utah loses to either Arizona or Colorado and then beats Oregon in the PAC12 title game. This is obviously a major stretch but eliminates the PAC12. Possible it could work the other way around and if Oregon loses to say ASU and then beats Utah they'd be eliminated but Oregon has played a tougher schedule and has better metrics.
> Personally I think if chalk holds in the SEC (LSU beats UGA in the title game), Michigan should jump Bama and UGA. It would help if Bama lost to Auburn though so the committee isn't tempted to do something dumb.
> Then they'd need a two loss Big 12 champ with either OU losing or Baylor and then that team winning the title game.
OSU and M would be interchangeable at 3rd or 4th but it would likely look like this:
1) LSU (13-0)
2) Clemson (13-0)
3) OSU (12-1)
4) Michigan (10-2)
5) Bama (11-1, and again, they might need to lose to Auburn here but I think losing Tua means the committee isn't gonna do something dumb here)
6) UGA (11-2)
7) Utah (11-2)
8) OU (11-2)
So root for Texas over Baylor, TCU over OU, ASU over Oregon, Arizona over Utah and yes, OSU over PSU.
November 19th, 2019 at 8:25 PM ^
I’d think we’d definitely get into the top 6/7 if/when we win out, and I’d love to see a Rose Bowl in that case but we already have a thread about that...
November 19th, 2019 at 8:26 PM ^
There's no feasible path for UM to make the top four, even if we put 100 on OSU and shut them out. There are too many good teams with fewer loses.
That loss to PSU really sucks - we're the better team by far. I wish you could have in conference rematches during bowl season. We'd kick the shit out of PSU if we played again.
November 19th, 2019 at 8:44 PM ^
The Wisconsin loss is more baffling to me. The team didn’t even show up after a bye. Michigan should not be losing to any BIG West teams given the talent disparities.
November 19th, 2019 at 8:51 PM ^
I can understand the Wisconsin loss more. We were forced to roll out Ben Mason against Wisconsin’s OL. Of course that’s going to go poorly.
The O sucked too, which also isn’t surprising, given how long it ended up taking to install the new scheme.
I think PSU would lose to Wisconsin FWIW.
November 19th, 2019 at 11:48 PM ^
Man, they are really sticking that Wisconsin loss to us. Is Barry Alvarez still on the committee? Thought we would've jumped them this week. How do you lose to Illinois and almost crack the top 10?
November 20th, 2019 at 6:54 AM ^
Well we know MSU wouldn't know.
November 19th, 2019 at 8:45 PM ^
I think that PSU loss may actually work out in the long run. We seem to be playing fast and loose instead of trying not to lose. The coaches definitely seem to be taking more risks. And why not? We're not winning the conference, so might as well have fun and kick some ass.
We're going to beat OSU and end the regular season ranked around 6.
November 19th, 2019 at 9:56 PM ^
Speaking of PSU, via ESPN:
"Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford said Tuesday that he received death threats and vulgar messages after throwing three interceptions against Minnesota in the Nittany Lions' first loss of the season."
I'm not so naive to think such a thing would never happen with our fan base, but there's a lot of fucked up people out there.
November 20th, 2019 at 10:15 AM ^
Wait, hold on a second. There are fucked up people in the PSU fanbase? Color me shocked!
November 19th, 2019 at 8:31 PM ^
Think we should be 11
November 19th, 2019 at 8:35 PM ^
There's a chance for Michigan to make the CFP, but it's so, so slim. Beating OSU gets us to top 7 probably, but we then need the PAC-12 champ to have a second loss, we need Baylor to revenge their loss to OU in the Big 12 title game, we probably need Bama to have a second loss, we need LSU and Clemson to win out.
The probability of all those things happening is under 1% I am certain. If we beat OSU we will get a NY6 bowl, though, which is nice.
November 19th, 2019 at 8:51 PM ^
That actually doesn’t sound as far fetched as I would have expected to be honest.
November 19th, 2019 at 8:58 PM ^
I don't think it's a water to wine level event, no. There's just a handful of good teams that need to screw up, and, being good teams, it's unlikely that they all will.
I agree with the poster that said the most unlikely of all is a 2-loss PAC12 champ. I just don't see Oregon or Utah losing before they play.
November 19th, 2019 at 9:04 PM ^
Beating OSU and OSU beating PSU might only get us to #8 still behind OU, but if they lose to Baylor, then guess that's irrelevant. With the Wisconsin blow out, we definitely need a Bama second loss, in my opinion. Then if we follow your other story lines, we're still then in the conversation with 1 loss Baylor Big12 champions and Pac12 2 loss champions. The committee would really have to value strength of schedule.
November 19th, 2019 at 10:00 PM ^
- Bama could very well lose to Auburn without Tua. Tennessee gave Bama all they could handle when Tua was out.
- LSU should win out.
- Clemson should win out
- Oregon loses to Arizona State and beats Utah. Leaving a two loss PAC 12 champ.
- Oklahoma goes down to Baylor or Ok State.
- ND wins out, putting them in the top 10.
- OSU beats Penn State convincingly. Keeping OSU at 2 or moving up to 1.
- UM beats OSU convincingly, by multiple scores. Kicking OSU out of contention. With our blowouts of OSU and ND, we have the best resume of any 2 loss teams and the committee weighs our hot streak heavily.
November 19th, 2019 at 10:16 PM ^
Yeah this is it. Like I said above, any one of these things happening isn't crazy, it's just that we need all of them to happen.
I think if we beat OSU by 10+ they will probably be out of the playoff. That's so late in the season to have a multiple score loss, and it will be against the best team they faced and the only tough road game on their fairly easy schedule. At that point, they're not getting in over a 1-loss PAC12 or Big 12 champ, or over a 1-loss Bama.
November 19th, 2019 at 11:46 PM ^
You think that a 12-1 OSU team with its only loss being to a Top 10 Michigan team (say 31-21) on the road and wins against Wisconsin (maybe twice) and Penn State, won't get in over 12-1 Oklahoma (who lost to Kansas State) or 11-1 Alabama (who didn't win the SEC and only notable win would be Auburn)? I think OSU is easily in ahead of those two.
12-1Oregon might make an argument if their only loss is to Auburn. Honestly, Auburn would be 8-4 by that point. OSU's loss to Michigan would look better than Oregon's loss to Auburn.
I think that the Buckeyes will be in the CFP if they lose to Michigan by 10 and then go on to win the B1G Championship. It's not even really close. In fact, OSU and Oregon would probably both get in along with LSU and Clemson. No OU. No Bama.