How About Now - Will We Make it into the NCAA's?

I think there's a fighting chance to win 1 of the last 4.  Two if a lot of good luck is on our side.  Nonetheless, even if we win two and a B1G tourney game to finish 18-13, that only puts the team solidly into the bubble.  It's my opinion that the committee will burst that bubble out from under us because of the punch heard 'round the world.

Every year some deserving teams get left out because of dubious reasons.  And nobody will say it out loud, but that punch will be on selector's minds.  We will hear the dubiousness of the committee's reasoning this year.  And it won't make sense.  And we won't like it.

Good luck to the boys in the NIT - hope to see a sold out Garden when we win it!

I don't know, but my gut says... maybe.

3 more wins get us in and out of Dayton for the play-in game. If we win vs Illinois that probably is enough with one more win. 

I would venture to say the rest of the schedule goes:

Illinois: L

MSU: W (by a lot)

Iowa: W

OSU: L

1st round in BTT: W

Win 2 more games and we will be in.

3 wins total, including if one comes in the BTT.

I don't think odds are great to win 2 of those last 4 but you need to. On the other hand those last four games look quite tough...but all those teams are semi erratic so you never know. Problem is...Michigan is also erratic. 

Personally, I don't think "the slap" will hurt the team. I believe their piss poor defense, shooting, and lack of basic fundamentals will. Them being a turnover machine that can only shoot one out of ever five games, etc. etc. is what is going to hurt them. 

The team is too erratic and unpredictable so I just think it's going to be tough. 

I'm rooting for them and do think they end up in if they can win 2 of the last 4 and 1 BIG game or 1 of last 4 and 2-3 BIG games. If they can win 2 of the last 4 and 2 BIG games I think that would be almost certainty they get in. 

I think Michigan will beat Iowa but lose the other three, win the first round of the BTT but not make it to the dance :(

Its been a rough season but on the whole, a lot of improvement with the freshman; I just hope that Caleb Houstan's light bulb goes off and there's more consistency with Diabte for next season

3-1 to finish the season, 2-1 in the BTT.

Book it, Dano.

My gut tells me they dont make it, way to many turnovers still. Good teams take advantage of that, and if Hunter is the only option we are doomed.

Win out - #FreeJuwan - Fuck Sparty and Ohio

1. 3-1 to finish the regular season (losing at OSU) and 2-1 in the BTT. That would make us 20-13 and setting us up to probably face a 1 or 2 seed if we make it to the second round of the tournament.

2. Lunardi has us in as one of the last four byes, so we seem to be in a decent position, barring any mid-major upsets. Every win the rest of the way will boost our profile, with no bad losses in the bunch.

Not quite a good team, yet, though I admired how hard they worked last night. Two more wins and we're in, and--yes--I believe we will do it. EDIT: I even like us against Illinois, given that we'll be rested and have our players back. 

I think we will 3-1 in the last 4 and make the BTT semis.  I think Juwan took the worlds biggest technical foul and it lit a fire under the team.

Don't ever underestimated what Michigan brings in terms of money for the NCAA. I've watched Syracuse get in year after year with worse resume's. 

I think the team will have to make some serious noise, like winning three of the last four and at least one game in the BTT in order to get in. Whether its fair or not, the fight in Madison is going to be on the selection committee's minds, and whether its done sub-consciously or not, it very well could sway the vote of the committee to leave Michigan out if they're on the fence. Which is why Michigan, in my mind, can only afford one more slip up in the regular season. They essentially have to give the committee no choice but to put Michigan in. 

This all isn't to say that Michigan can't do it. They can, and when they're playing their best game they can beat anyone in the league. The problem is it seems like you only get this team's best game every so often. How much of that is due to "well there's a lot of freshmen playing and learning how to adjust to the college game," I don't know. I'm sure that's part of it. But it seems like whenever Michigan plays a great game against a good opponent and gets moving in the right direction, they follow it up with a clunker and fall right back down to the bottom of the hill.

Whooped Purdue, then played awful against OSU and let that one slip right through their fingers. Beat Iowa in Iowa City, Moussa just goes off, and then completely fall apart on and off the court in Madison three days later.  And that would likely be what does Michigan in moreso than the problems in Madison. 

2 more wins would probably give them 5 Quad one victories.  It would be hard to keep a team out with that many Quad one wins.

I'm betting we win 3, maybe 4, more (counting a B1G tourney game or two)...  This team is going to be fired up, playing for their suspended coach.  

going to finish the season strong, like a Coach B team.

We'll be balling in the field of 64.

Gun to head?  Then yes, we are in.

How many teams have had a winning record in the Big Ten and didn't make the tournament? 

The defense has been much better down the stretch.  Turn overs are still a concern, but the real issue is three point shooting.  If they can hit around 33-35% down the stretch at home I think they take 3 of 4.  The Ohio State game is a tough pull.

Looking forward to Hunter v. Cockburn!

I calculate a 72.2% probability that we terminate 2 more teams in the regular season.

I can't predict how this team is going to do. If they make their shots, they play like a 4 seed, if they don't, they play like an NIT team. There doesn't seem to be any consistency or middle ground.

@OSU and Ill are Quad 1 games. MSU and Iowa are Quad 2 games. They need to win at least two, and with one of those being a quad 1 win.

Assuming their opening BTT game is a Quad 2 game, it won't matter if they win or lose.

I've been saying for a while that it's going to be close with them getting in - I think it'll come down to MSU and Iowa. Win those 2 and they're in provided they don't bomb out in the first round of the BTT. Lose either of those games and not pick up one against Illinois or OSU and I think they'll need to at least win 2 games in the BTT and hope for some luck.  And concerns about the turnovers seems a bit overblown - they're averaging about 11 in the past 10 games, which is about league average.  They're not great with the ball but it feels like their TOs come in bunches but otherwise are part of aggressiveness and not as much sloppiness as earlier in the year.

I don't think the Howard situation will help or hurt them in the eyes of the committee - the NCAA doesn't REALLY care about a lot of things, and considering that news story has already passed and we're on to various other issues I sort of doubt anyone's going to care in March.

A) Too bad Bolivia isn't a permanent home.

B) Boomers need to look into an advanced metric once in awhile. Analyzing win loss records is not a thing. Michigan's advanced metrics have them solidly in if they pick up 2 more of the last 4.

C) What metric out there had them more likely to go 1-3 over the last 4 when 3 games are at home? It doesn't exist.

My take on the season colors my take on the remaining schedule.

Because individuals and the team overall varied so much, games have felt like equations with too many variables to solve. Any game, we didn't know what to expect. Contrast last year: players weren't simply good, they were steady, so we usually knew what to expect. 

The rest of this mystifying season? If players continue variable, doubting their talent, confidence wobbly, it won't be pretty. But if what Howard's been teaching—and players have been learning—keep coalescing, it will be a strong run.

[EDIT: What I'm trying to express is that the issue hasn't simply been athletes' inconsistency. Instead, the individual players and the team are on a learning curve, AND learning isn't linear, as many assume, but a complex process that is INNATELY inconsistent.

So instead of the Aha! Moment beloved of movie screenwriters and color commentators, things will coalesce. The issue then is whether that gathering of skills, talent, confidence, and thought happens the next few games.]

I believe we'll go undefeated until we lose

I think UM will sneak in with wins against Illinois and MSU followed by losses to Iowa and OSU. Iowa has played well since UM beat them and it will be Michigan's 3rd game in 5 days. I don't like that formula. Getting the Illinois game on Sunday when UM has one more day of rest compared to Illinois is key. Using this BTT generator, my scenario would have Michigan playing PSU in the 7/10 game with the winner taking on Wisconsin (awesome). Take care of PSU and I think UM would be fine. 

My conspiracy today is Michigan won't make the tournament regardless because the committee doesn't want the distraction.

I think we are going to win out, win the B1G, and win it all.

1989 all over again!!

I think this team is going to come together and run the table on the rest of the regular season.  I think we make a run to the finals in the Big Ten

I think everyone is over complicating this. Win 2 of the last 4 and we are in. Even with a first round loss in BTT. That puts us at 17-14, but more importantly 11-9 in the best conference in cbb. MSU made it at 15-12 (9-11 in conference) last year. Our NET and Kenpom rankings suggest Michigan is an 8 seed right now. Getting 2 more wins vs quality opponents would only solidify our spot. Going 1-3 would likely put us on the wrong side of the bubble unless we won 3 games in the BTT. So like I said, go 2-2 and we are in. No idea if we will considering how Jekyll and Hyde we are. I look at Illinois as a must win because I don’t like our chances beating OSU on the road and I don’t want to depend on beating both MSU and Iowa. 

@Kilgore - Iowa may be playing well, but so was Rutgers until we beat them last night

I don’t know how accurate this website is, but it’s basically saying we are a lock right now. I don’t tend to agree with that. But it saying 97% chance. Even 88% chance with 16 wins.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/michigan-wolverines/bracketology

I think Michigan will finish the season 2-2 and then we’ll see who they match up with in the BTT. I agree with some others. Michigan brings lots of money wherever they go, so if it’s close I think TV money is going to want them in. 

We're not losing again. Period.

Here's what I posted on Jan 27

So far, holding to form. Beat Iowa at home, and then 1 of Illinois, MSU or OSU and we're in.  If not we might have to play on Sat in the B1G tourney.

1. Win out.  Caleb starts making his threes and we win the BTT.

2. Yes.

1.  4-0

2.  Yes

3.  Sweet 16

4.  Northern Lights 

If the team can remain focused as they seemed to be yesterday, good chance they can go at least 2-2 and with some luck 3-1. If so they make the big dance. 

We need to win 2 games, it would be nice to win the 2 home games and one B1G tournament game and then we are in. An over .500 record in the B1G and  an 18-11 overall record. It's possible this team could go 4-0 or 3-1. 

@TK

MSU did not make it into the tourney last year. They made it to the play-in game, which gave them the opportunity to play into the tourney.  They lost, so they did not make it into the tourney last year.

NCAA NET - U-M 33, MSU 36

Sagarin - UM 22, MSU 25

Ken Pom - UM 31, MSU 34

BPI - UM 27, Sparty 32

Most people aren't factoring in our top-5 SOS or recent general upward trajectory (purdue, @indiana, @iowa all recent Ws) - yes, I know we have a few more overall Ls, but with both teams at 9-7, one trending up and one down - how in the heck in Sparty a consensus 6 or 7 and we're square on the bubble while ahead in every single metric/ranking available?

@aMAIZEinBLUEinTX - If Sparty loses Saturday and we beat Illinois on Sunday, I think you'll see us on a similar seed line. Our situations won't flip completely unless we beat them on Tuesday. 

4-2 including the BTT, and I think we get in. 

A few days ago, after Wisconsin, I was trying to make sense of this team, whose 3P shooting stats aren't great but not terrible, with 4 of the starters shooting over 33% (well, at the time, now it's 3) and the whole team shooting 33% for the season as well

These are cherry-picked stats using numbers after the UW game, but didn't share because some Incident happened at the time

3P% against tournament teams (ranging from Kempom #3 to #46):  12 games, 3 wins, 9 losses
>33 3P% - 4 games (Purdue x2, SD State, Indiana, all 55% or better)
<33 3P% - 8 games, with 7 under 25%  

3P% against mid-tier/bubble-ish teams (ranging from #68 to #114):  8 games, 5 wins, 3 losses
>33 3P% - 5 games 
<33 3P% - 3 games, all 3 under 25%

3P% against not very good teams (ranging from #179 to #283):  5 games, 5 wins, 0 losses
>33 3P% - 4 games 
<33 3P% - 1 game, at 13%

Conclusions

1. As you'd expect, the team shoots 3s well against bad teams, average against mid-tier teams, and poorly vs good teams (unless they are from the state of Indiana)
2. When the team shoots poorly, it tends to shoot REALLY poorly
3. Poor shooting performances in 12 of 25 games, but it's a bit skewed because it also has played a top heavy SOS
4. The team IS capable of raining 3s on good teams - Purdue x2, Indiana, SDSU, NW? - 57% on average
5. Yesterday's game was a good sign because they've shot under 25% six out of the past 8 games (the other two were the two PU games)

Thanks for coming to my ted talk

@WindyCity

i mean, it’s fun to say they missed the tournament but they really didn’t. The play in games are considered the opening round and their streak is still considered intact. Don’t think they deserved it, but they still got the nod. 

2-2 and yes

I don't trust my lying eyes so I'm just going off the data on Bart Torvik's website. His record projection is 17-13 (11-9), or 2-2 from here. We're favored in the 3 home games, but Illinois and Iowa are both 1 point games. So we'd be fortunate to win all 3. Still, more likely to go 3-1 than 1-3.

We'll likely end up seeded 5-8 in the BTT, so we should have a winnable Thursday game and a tough Friday game against one of the top 4. Expect 1-1 there. So, 18-14 overall record. 

That should be enough to be comfortably in, if the committee doesn't lose their mind. >.500 record in B1G, and at least 5 Q1 wins should be good, despite a lot of losses. The T-Ranketology currently projects them as the top 8 seed (one slot behind MSU), but only 85% chance to get in. The 7-9 seeds around Michigan are all 90% or more to get in, and we're the outlier. Compare to the Bracket Matrix, where we're an 11 seed and in on 105/135 brackets.

Michigan's in one of those situations where there is a divergence between their advanced metrics and record. Currently 25th on Torvik's ranking and 33rd on NET, which would normally be good enough to be in the 7-9 seed range in NCAA tournament. But, it seems like they're setting up to get dinged for the record: 18, maybe 19 wins, when fellow bubble teams are going to have 20+. 

Torvik has us with an 85% chance to make it and that sounds about right, maybe a tad bit high but it's now pretty likely Michigan makes it.  So yeah, I'd bet very large sums of money on Michigan making it at this point.

They may only need one more regular season win and a win in the BTT.  Two more in the regular season and it's a lock, barring some crazy bid stealing.

I think we'll go 2-2 the rest of the way.  That's the most likely scenario. Here's the probability distribution based on Torvik win probabilities (Illinois 54%, MSU 70%, Iowa 57%, OSU 33%):

Win all 4 games: 7%

Go 3-1: 29%

Go 2-2: 39%

Go 1-3: 21%

Lose remaining 4 games: 4%

So the odds of winning 2 or more is 75%.  Then he's proposing that we have about a 50/50 chance of making it if we only go 1-3 in remaining games which implies one more win and a win in the BTT would likely be enough.  Again I think that's slightly optimistic because I think we're sweating it out in that scenario no doubt we have a 75% of better chance of making it overall.

3 we’re in, 2 we sweat it out 50/50 chance, 1 we’re done.  I predict 4 wins because I’ll be at the 3 home games and fuck Ohio.