Football recruiting projections 24/7
With the latest developments in recruiting related to Xavier Worthy et al. I was curious to see where Michigan would land nationally if we assume a realistic, best case scenario for the way the class rounds out. I thought I would share my findings with the board given the plight of sports discussion at our disposal.
Michigan currently sits at 8th nationally with 19 current "commits" and a score of 243.49 points on the 24/7 point system - good for 20th nationally in the 2020 class rankings if we were to get zero additional commitments.
If by reading the tea leaves on the remaining targets on the board for UM, we could realistically - albeit best case scenario - land the following prospects:
Xavier Worthy - Wide Receiver - #95 prospect overall
Donovan Edwards - Running Back - #25 prospect overall
Rayshaun Benny - Interior Defensive Line - #197 prospect overall
George Rooks - Interior Defensive Line - #196 prospect overall
Kamonte Grimes - Athlete (probably headed for defense) - #517 prospect overall
Rocco Spindler - Offensive Guard or Interior D-Line - #80 prospect overall
Using the 24/7 Class Calculator, that would be good for a score of 276.04 overall, 6th nationally just ahead of Auburn and behind TAMU if extrapolated over the 2020 final class rankings. For additional context of this class, we would be looking at:
14 players of a 25-man class would be rated inside the Top 300 prospects nationally
15 players of a 25-man class rated as 4-star prospects or better (McCarthy being the 5-star)
A few prospects that many inside the recruiting industry believe are well undervalued 3-stars (Moore, Grimes, Allen, McBurroghs, Guy) and a few whose measurables make them worth an offer (Bounds, Guidiece)
Final thoughts on this hypothetical, yet realistic finish: this would be a very, VERY good recruiting class and would finish within the top-10 nationally. Despite all of the doom and gloom from the loudest minority contingent within the UM fan base, this class would keep Michigan competing with the nation's best programs and be filled with demonstrated, high-level talent to go along with some under the radar prospects that are a good bet to pan out as High Power 5 level contributors.
In my opinion Worthy has the film of a day 1 draft pick and is probably underrated even as the #95 prospect nationally. He looks like a Jerry Juedy, Cee Dee Lamb caliber prospect. Donovan Edwards looks like game breaker at running back. This offense has the potential to be an absolute juggernaut in a few years if McCarthy ends up being the Quarterback prospects that the sites believe him to be (I think he may have a harder time reaching his ceiling than other recruits in this class, but he is universally considered an excellent prospect). Our offensive line will be absolutely loaded for years to come, and we will have play makers all over the field. Even if our defense has a slight down grade in talent from the recent units, we will be able to put up points on anyone as long as the offensive philosophy allows them to do so.
If the only measuring stick you're willing to look at is how does our recruiting class compare to OSU, you may want to take a break from Michigan football for the foreseeable future, they are going to out-recruit just about everyone save Clemson maybe for the next few years. Still, this class puts Michigan in a position to compete with that death star on the field and anyone else in the country for that matter. I know it doesn't fit the current narrative with the program, but we're recruiting just fine and as well as we ever have in 2021.
Finishing the class like this would be great. Worthy looks great. I hope we get him, he seems like a Star. OSU is a problem though. We could be the second best team in the country, if OSU is 1 we can’t reach our peak. Gotta somehow best them with less talent.
Even if this is true having 1 loss seasons can help close the gap.
3-4 loss seasons don’t exactly inspire hope
A one loss season is incredibly hard lol. That isn’t realistic. That would mean 11-0 into OSU. and then very likely play in the playoffs. 10-2 is what’s more realistic for a regular season. On the average year anyway. It would be nice to actually have one special year once a decade. I know we will win a national title someday soon, and that will be glorious.
I agree with this, and to add to that point - if Michigan were given the opportunity to swap schedules with Clemson and Oklahoma for 5 years, I bet you would see them make multiple playoff appearances, where the aforementioned would be lucky to make it at all (especially Oklahoma). Michigan and Auburn are in similar predicaments. Very good teams on the losing-end of an extremely difficult dynamic. The difference is, Auburn has been able to find success against their arch-rival where Michigan has not. Michigan would be wise spending some time studying how Auburn has found a way to even the playing field (a lot of which admittedly is luck and a generational talent at QB) against Bama since they are approximately at the same level within the college football hierarchy.
Ask Charles Barkley and Cam Newton how Auburn levels the playing field.
I love Barkley's story about the Dream Team playing against 18-year-old Dirk Nowitski's Germany in an exhibition game, where he put up 52 while being guarded mainly by Scottie Pippen. Says after the game he told Dirk, "Come to Auburn, we know how to take of you down in the SEC."
Hmm I don't necessarily agree that OU or Clemson wouldn't make the playoffs with our schedule. Both teams have beaten OSU, which would be the only team to really give them issues. I don't see Penn State being an issue for either of them. I do agree that we would make the playoffs with Clemson's schedule...OU's, im not sure because the dynamic offenses in the Big 12 could be a challenge for us
It's not the 1 game sample, "they each have beaten OSU". It's the cumulative probability.
Clemson plays nobody, nobody, nobody (not even Notre Dame recently), so its win probability is 95%, 90%, 95%. What's the probability they beat all 3? Just multiply, so 81%.
If they played OSU, PSU, and Wisconsin, without even debating whether they'd be higher or lower for some (i.e. I'll concede for argument purposes they'd be favored in each game). It's going to look something like 60%, 70%, 70%. I think those are too high, depending on home/away, but as a rough guess. What's the probability the beat all 3? 29%.
Add a random loss to someone else in conference, which nearly all teams have, and that's two losses and you're out of the playoff.
I think argument applies to the PAC12 as well. If Michigan swapped with a team in that conference, Harbaugh would have multiple conference championships and playoff appearances.
This is the correct take in my view. It's not just the showdown at the end of the season, it is holistically the entire schedule and having to prepare for an entire seasons worth of higher-quality opponents, way more land mines in Michigan's schedule than Clemson's.
To demonstrate - On the 2019 schedule prior to any post season football, Michigan played 5 teams that finished the year in the AP Top 25. Clemson played.. zero.
Would Clemson have been the favorite in all of those games, save potentially OSU - I think without a doubt yes. If you combine all of those matchup's together and calculated the odds that they go undefeated, the output would be well below .500
I think the issue, as is commonly verbalized around here, is that the 1 loss always comes at the end of the season. There’s no more games to prove you are still worthy, there’s just the hope that you don’t plummet in polls or in the eyes of the committee blah blah blah. Also, needing to make that B1G championship game as well. I agree that 1 loss seasons are obviously preferred, however I think a conference title and playoff birth are what is needed to catapult Michigan any higher than we are currently trending year in and year out
Besting OSU doesn't come down to being better across the board. We have had enough talent to beat them during the Harbaugh era minus QB and D-line.
The year we were better than them, 2016, we had the better D-line, better overall defense, and were a healthy QB away (not to mention all the BS calls, etc) from beating them.
Clemson has owned OSU despite being less talented across the board because they were better at the two most important positions on the field - interior D-line (NT, DT) and QB.
The variance between a top 100 and top 300 WR as it relates to team success, is nowhere near the variance between a top 5 QB vs. a top 20 QB and a top 5 D-line vs. a top 20 D-line, as it pertains to success in CFB.
We need to outplay them on the D-line (most importantly the interior) and at the QB position and then we will be fine. That is where the program will make the jump from good to elite, just like Clemson did.
I would love our recruiting to get better. What I would love more is for osu recruiting to drop of a cliff. But that’s not possible. They only get better with scandals
I hope we do sign all those players. I have a feeling things will look a little a bit differently in December. Hopefully only better for us.
I hope we do sign all those players. I have a feeling things will look a little a bit differently in December. Hopefully only better for us.
If we finish the class like this it is really hard not to think that was almost ideal for our recruiting capability. (Yeah, yeah - we want all the 5 stars from thousands of miles away while maintaining some level of academic and above-board rule following....).
In the scenario you outlined....
- QB - We get a 5-star
- RB - With a full depth chart, we get a 4.5-star and beat out the big boys
- WR - We have depth, speed, diversity
- TE - Enough to keep the lights on
- OL - Quantity and quality
- DT - Not ideal, but multiple bodies after some early scare
- DE - Maybe missing an elite WDE, but solid group
- LB - Some strong athletes
- DB - Solid mix of size and skill
Yes, and if Edwards holds at #25 he'll be a 5 star. I'm sure that would make many on the board uneasy.
The linebacker group is better than you seem to be giving them credit for to be honest. They are more than just strong athletes. It’s a really good haul.
Agree AC. I think the one hole in the class is a lockdown lengthy boundary corner. I like McBurrows a lot, specifically to address one of the main issues we've had in the Harbaugh era - handling quick slants and crossing routes against speedy slot receivers.
Would have been great to pick up Prophet Brown, but he looks headed to the Sooners.
OSU is recruiting better than Clemson and everyone else right now and it’s not even close. Their recruiting run of the last 6 years is better than any team in history outside of Alabama at Saban’s peak.
Truthfully, in comparison to its recruiting, OSU is underperforming on the field. We, as Michigan fans, better hope that underperformance continues because otherwise we will be looking at 3-5 OSU national championships in the next 10 years.
We need to hope that unrestricted NIL rights are approved and/or Michigan starts throwing bag money around in a serious way if we want to compete on a level field with the top 5 teams in recruiting.
Otherwise, our goal should be to win 10 games every year and to beat OSU 1 out of 4 years.
If Michigan were to win 10 games every year and beat osu 25% of the time, that would be an immense improvement over the past 16 years, which has seen Michigan beat osu once (.0625%) and win 10 games 5 times, or .3125% of seasons.
And yes, I am aware there are some who would still call beating osu 25% of the time "settling"!!! ?
@Blue in Paradise
Michigan Athletics is already gearing up for the possibility of student-athletes earning compensation from their likeness and athletic achievements.
I was told the AD is going to partner with a company called Opendorse which will facilitate/broker sponsorships for student-athletes.
I'll make a thread on this later...
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@ schreibee
Winning 25% of the time would be settling.
Auburn, which lives in the shadow of Bama's greatness, is 5-8 against Nick Saban's Bama. That's 38.4% win rate so nearly 40%. In other words, Auburn goes 4-6 against in a decade against Bama despite Saban getting #1 class year after year after year and Bama winning 5 MNCs in 9 years.
But you think winning Michigan winning 25% of the time against Ohio State isn't settling?
Heck, just properly defending our home turf ever other year would get us to 50%. (See recent games against Penn State: 2-2 split based on venue.)
My advice: have higher expectations.
Tom Osborne started 0-5 against Oklahoma. He ended up being 13-13 against Oklahoma when he retired.
And Oklahoma once dominated that rivalry. OU won 16 straight from 1943-1958. When Osbrone retired, the rivalry was OU 39 - NU 37.
Auburn has won some absurdly lucky games in that time. The kick 6, another game where Bama outgunned them by like 200 yards, but threw a 99 yard pick 6 off the players back, and some other crazy Jordan-Hare voodoo.
OSU has been both better and lucky against us over the past 20 years. There are easily 4-5 toss up /one score games that all went their way. They are clearly the better program, but they've also benefitted from some absurd luck / random chance in the game.
Look at the halftime and final scores since Urban Meyer became HC.
2012: Michigan led 21-20, lost 26-21
2013: Tied 21-21, was a 2 point conversion away from probably winning 43-42
2014: Tied 14-14, trailed 28-21 after 3, lost 42-28.
2015: Michigan trailed 14-10, lost 42-13
2016: Michigan led 10-7, lost 30-27 in overtime (We led 17-7 at one point.)
2017: TIed 14-14 at halftime, lost 31-20, pre-interception we're a TD drive away from winning game. (We led 14-0 at one point.)
2018: Michigan trailed 24-19 at halftime, trailed 27-19 with 4 minutes remaining in 3rd quarter, lost 62-39
2019: Michigan trailed 28-16 (should've been something like 28-23 b/c of fumble in redzone and dropped TD), lost 56-27.
For all of OSU's recruiting prowess, Michigan plays OSU evenly for a half (regardless of venue) and often for 3 quarters. In the 4th quarter, things fall apart.
We've somehow flipped tails for 8 years running. It's both humbling and infuriating.
Most teams play well for a half. Ya'll are sounding like beat dogs. Not saying that to be mean it just occured to me this is where its at. Sounds like you are grasping for anything positive.
The bigger problem is Harbaugh going old school trying to be Bo.
First it was Bo's 3 yards and a cloud of dust offense he brought from OSU in 68. Now it looks like he's recruiting like BO, make an offer once and move on.this is 2020 not 1968
I bet he despises recruiting.
Completely agree with all of this. Spot on rational assessment.
Unfortunately, they don't underperform against Michigan. Like ever. They save that for Iowa and Purdue and Clemson and Maryland and...sigh.
They won every game by double digits last year on their way to an undefeated season, conference championship, and a close playoff loss. You're basically saying that any season where OSU doesn't win a national championship is a underperformance.
Last year they were much better than they had been the previous couple of seasons, but yes, to fail to get even to the national title game for 5+ years is underperforming given their talent (and yes, Michigan has been underperforming even more).
I'm very happy that the "loudest minority contingent within the UM fan base" has finally gotten tired of being the world's most persistent troll (or he just ran out of money) and hasn't come around in a while. The tone of this place, particularly when it comes to recruiting, has improved immensely!
We'll finish 14th nationally.
It is what it is.
I just looked at the last 4 classes.
Anyone that finished 276+ finished top 10 (usually around 8th).
So for us to finish outside top 10, we would need to miss out on a player like Rocco Spindler.
If I’m not mistaken, missing on Spindler has potential. Isn’t he thought to be a silent ND commit? I know, I know, long ways to go and he’s taking his visits.
Spindler seems like the most likely miss on the list, you are correct. Good news there is that Drew Kindall seems like a realistic possibility if Spindler ends up heading else-where. He is not quite as highly-touted, but still a top 150 player and would supplement the class very well on the interior offensive line.
I agree with the OP...every expected/hoped for recruit...word for word...beginning to end.
It seems weird that OSU, who doesn't cheat at all and has real challenging academics for their athletes, is out-recruiting the reigning national champions, and everyone else by a country mile.
/s
This is just a reminder that a freshman UM football player has to carry a 2.0 GPA, most likely in "General Studies".
Being regularly in the top 10 or just outside, which is what Michigan has done during the Harbaugh era with more four+ stars than not is plenty good enough. The staff is doing a great job everywhere save maybe interior DL the past couple years.
It's the same range that Clemson built a national title contender from and the same range that OU makes regular playoff appearances with.
The difference between them and Michigan is only coaching (especially OU which arguably gets less talent, particularly on defense). Hopefully Gattis has closed the coaching gap.
Um, OU has had two Heisman winning QB's in the last three years and the Heisman runner up last year. And they've been in the CF playoffs four out of the last five years. You might be right about coaching but overall I'd say they've probably had more talented teams than us.
I think the post you're replying to is talking about recruiting. Harbaugh has out-recruited OU every year except for 2018. The team talent composite has ranked UM over OU every year except last year. Harbaugh has had more players drafted the past three years (17 to 16) and I bet counting UDFA's the difference would be even larger.
And none of the specific players you mentioned were recruited by OU out of high school.
To the commenters point, there has been plenty of analysis that have been done by myself and others to show that UM's recruiting is good enough to compete at a playoff level. And there are twice as many articles either vilifying or excusing Harbaugh for not achieving at that level.
Another comment in this article talks about how close UM has been. I would agree with that. The bounces haven't lined up. The 2017 class set back the program with a mix of recruiting bad program fit and injury. Top talent has not stayed for their final year of eligibility at a high enough rate. QB's have been injured at a catastrophic rate. And again, the team has been very close.
Back to the original point. Recruiting. The lowly ranked 2018 class might produce 3 first rounders and will be looked back on as the scouting departments greatest triumph in a really tough moment for the program. At least 8 kids from that class will be drafted. With the changes that have been made in regards to recruiting program fit, I think that the 2019 and 2020 classes will be Harbaugh's best to date. They have the talent, speed, intelligence, and history of production to compete with anyone. We've already started to see that from the 2019 class. The 2021 class is on pace to be even better.
Just don't lose to Wisconsin or sparty.
Ceyair Wright is missing from your possibles but I understand we are trending up. Here are some recent articles:
https://michigan.rivals.com/news/four-star-california-ath-ceyair-wright-talks-michigan-offer
https://touch-the-banner.com/new-offer-2021-cb-ceyair-wright/
https://twitter.com/ceyairr/status/1250597408712519680
Add him into your math and see where we end up.
BTW - He will be playing Lebron James' son in the new Space Jam movie.
Not landing Rocco. Sucks
No reason for gloom and doom. There are strong indications that Donovan, Rocco and the rest of the 6 recruits listed in the OP will be realized. A five star OT would be nice...and while not apparent at this moment may still happen as well.
Man you are an optimistic fella. If those things have even a 50% chance to happen, that would be the deepest class in Harbaugh's tenure. Why are you even a little confident in that?
Seems like both ND and Michigan sides are confident. I would call it a 50/50 battle at this point. Unless you’ve heard differently.