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Date Title Body
You’re the man, man. 

You’re the man, man. 

You’re the man, man. 

Double post.

Looking for 2-4 tickets to…

Looking for 2-4 tickets to the OSU and Minny games. 
 

Looking for 4-8 tickets to the PSU game. 


dm or [email protected]

 

I think the game plan…

I think the game plan against PSU did pivot in the first half. I don’t want to count it all up and I’m sure UFR will. But we threw the ball early and often against PSU.
 

First drive: 10 plays. 4 pass, 6 rush.
Second drive: 12 plays. 7 pass, 5 rush.

 

You get it. We stalled out inside the 10 (5?) yd line with some missed throws and cute playcalls on the first two drives. 

The start of the 2nd quarter was 4 throws in the first 5 plays. Then the run game gashed PSU down the field and punched it in for a TD. No more cleverness in the red zone. 
 

Then the interception. The drive was four plays previously, Edwards broke a run for 25yds and Corum for 8yds. The other two plays were incomplete passes. 
 

It’s at this point the run/pass split diverges drastically from the previous trend. I think the UM staff saw that the only time they were being stopped was the pass game. I think they were shocked that Manny Diaz staunchly refused to cheat one way or another to fix the numbers issues. Specifically in regard to keeping two high safeties. So they decided to just hammer them until he did. I really think they anticipated going back to the pass. But PSU, in the face of all reason, never changed their looks. What is the point of having two amazing CB’s if you have to give them help on every play? UM was able to call whatever they wanted on the ground. They knew exactly how PSU was going to line up to match the UM looks. 

Anyway, the next few drives in stark contrast to the opening script:

In the second half, the first drive was 4 plays. 3 rush, 1 pass.

Second drive, 1 play, 1 rush. 
Third drive, 14 play, 4 pass, 10 rush. 

From then on it was even more lopsided.

There were over 1,300 snaps…

There were over 1,300 snaps in 3TE sets in the NFL in 2021. 

UM is running at a ~67% clip… UM is running at a ~67% clip right now.
That’s the Michigan Deferens

That’s the Michigan Deferens

My question to Alex is, why…

My question to Alex is, why doesn’t Junior have cyan? He’s a problem spot that has been exploited so far.

Getting crazy judder. Any…

Getting crazy judder. Any idea's? Using VLC. 

 

Edit: NVM, found your post that mentions this issue. 

You are goated. DM me a…

You are goated. DM me a Venmo handle or similar so I can at least buy you a drink. 

Looking for up to 8 tickets…

Looking for up to 8 tickets. Will buy fewer as well. Thanks!

 

[email protected]

Did you happen do this one…

Did you happen do this one in 4k? I'm desperate to find and save that version forever 

I think…

I think TheGhostOfJermaineGonzales is the only real insider left. I wish he posted more. 

Marty Martens

Marty Martens

If the staff thinks Mazi is…

If the staff thinks Mazi is a year away, I don't think he'll be at UM next year. His handler is pretty adamant that the work he's done deserves serious playing time this year. Unfortunate. I hope he and Jeter make the most of their snaps this year and come back next year. 

Almost no one believes they…

Almost no one believes they are drunk when they're drunk. Don't drink and drive. Don't leave it up to your own judgement to determine whether your drunk. Don't leave it up to someone else's judgement. Don't leave it up to a cheap piece of chinese electronics. Don't drink and drive. 

I'm guessing it's a…

I'm guessing it's a reference to Don Brown's stunning defensive wizardry against Wisconsin whereby Dr. Blitz chose to counter Wisconsin's substantial size advantage by placing Jordan Glasgow as a DT in goal line situations.

I have an FJ and absolutely…

I have an FJ and absolutely love it. 2010-2014 models are all tanks. If money is not an issue it's a great option. They are still very high demand. A clean 2010 with 110k miles will run you about $22k. 

 

To the OP

  1. How many people out there want a "Jeep Wrangler" that's not a Jeep Wrangler? The market is substantial. Look at the fleet of FJ cruisers, H3's, modded 4runners, Vintage Land Rivers, etc that are still daily drivers. Many will be reaching the end if their DD life soon and be resigned to hobby cars. It's a perfect time to release the Bronco. The demand in this segment is kinda crazy. My FJ Cruiser has appreciated substantially since I bought it. 
  2. Is it a problem that there's no 2-Door soft top? Getting a soft top made is easy. 
  3. Is it a problem that there's no V8? Not for me. Can't see why there would be. 
  4. Is it a problem that there's no hybrid at launch? No. Will be a nice addition to the line later but the competition doesn't have a hybrid in this segment. 
  5. Will there be longer term demand? Everyone keeps citing the Thunderbird. That was a hobby car for an older generation. It was a 2005 car that was an homage to a 1950's design. 50 years from when it was popular. It pulled at the heartstrings of people who were 0-20 years old for the original and 50-70 for the re-release. A market segment looking for a Sunday cruiser. The Bronco, on the other hand, is targeted at a generation of buyers that is now 25-45 and looking for daily driver that that can handle their demanding outdoor activities. Or at least look like it can handle their demanding outdoor activities. 

 

 

As others have said, as long as they can beat Jeep in stock quality, which shouldn't be a huge stretch, I think they have a winner here. Maybe Im just the target market. All my friends near me in age and outdoor hobbies has said the same thing. 

Why would Oregon's numbers…

Why would Oregon's numbers impact ours? It wasn't like Worthy didn't want a big WR class. Oregon was just full based on their projected roster composition. 

 

Gattis has said that we're light on scholarship WR's. We have 9 now, plus a few potential non-guaranteed. With the current class we have 9 in '21. I think if Thomas or Styles wants to come we'll make room. It's highly likely we'll see some decommits this cycle. Every school will see more than usual if officials are allowed or the signing days are pushed back. 

If youtake it off road you…

If you take it off road you need to run a 2 inch lift kit with 35's (really minor)

Is ~10% of the vehicles cost and a full weekend of work "really minor"? 

Is it a saturated market if…

Is it a saturated market if there's really only one option?

I have never owned a Ford…

I have never owned a Ford and I am all over this. I like everything I've seen about it so far. Maybe I'm just the target market. Currently have an FJ Cruiser for when I venture North. 

I can see him being a demon…

I can see him being a demon on special teams as a freshman. He appears to have good arm length, which could help at SAM. Can't imagine he wins an ILB spot, but we are starting Josh Ross this year. I'm really hoping one of the Viper or Rover recruits beefs up to take an ILB job by '21. Otherwise Kalel Mullings will have a lot to ground to cover. 

I buy that an injury might…

I buy that an injury might have hurt his accuracy, but I can't fathom that it was the reason that in crucial moments of games he refused to pull the ball on zone reads. That's either a lack of cognition or toughness.  

The effectiveness of the spread is in the name. You must be able to stretch the defense horizontally. All good spread teams rely on the QB run game to keep the defense stretched out in the numbers games. The only spread I can think of that worked without a mobile QB is Cardale, and he did it to his best and threw an amazing deep ball to compensate. Oh and some other talent around. Trevor Lawrence won the NC with his legs. Gattis had some gadgetry drawn up by the end of the season to compensate for Patterson, but it came at a cost. 

That's why I think that with our running QB's if the OL can be good this year, the QB's don't even have to be significantly better with their arms than Patterson was last year. If they can even just match that low bar, the offense will be lethal. I'm a firm believer in Gattis and the skill position talent we have. We were gashing OSU for a good portion of that game and completely shot ourselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties. QB's that can run will help the RB and HB run game hit more home runs, make the passing game easier, open up the screen game, keep drives moving, and will make a HUGE difference in the red zone. 

 

 

 

 

I think the post you're…

I think the post you're replying to is talking about recruiting. Harbaugh has out-recruited OU every year except for 2018. The team talent composite has ranked UM over OU every year except last year. Harbaugh has had more players drafted the past three years (17 to 16) and I bet counting UDFA's the difference would be even larger. 

And none of the specific players you mentioned were recruited by OU out of high school.

To the commenters point,  there has been plenty of analysis that have been done by myself and others to show that UM's recruiting is good enough to compete at a playoff level. And there are twice as many articles either vilifying or excusing Harbaugh for not achieving at that level. 

Another comment in this article talks about how close UM has been. I would agree with that. The bounces haven't lined up. The 2017 class set back the program with a mix of recruiting bad program fit and injury. Top talent has not stayed for their final year of eligibility at a high enough rate. QB's have been injured at a catastrophic rate. And again, the team has been very close. 

Back to the original point. Recruiting. The lowly ranked 2018 class might produce 3 first rounders and will be looked back on as the scouting departments greatest triumph in a really tough moment for the program. At least 8 kids from that class will be drafted. With the changes that have been made in regards to recruiting program fit, I think that the 2019 and 2020 classes will be Harbaugh's best to date. They have the talent, speed, intelligence, and history of production to compete with anyone. We've already started to see that from the 2019 class. The 2021 class is on pace to be even better. 

 

First time I saw Seldon I…

First time I saw Seldon I immediately thought of Quandre Diggs. 

 

Speaking to NFL potential more generally, if Seldon can reach his potential I think he might be a higher pick than some think. If I'm in a division with Tyreek Hill, Tyler Lockett, TY Hilton, Stefon Diggs, or Terry McLaurin I'm going to go out and get a guy like Seldon and I'm going to pay him a lot of money. 

I like the Barnett comp. His…

I like the Barnett comp. His last game at UT was the most dominant game I've seen form a defensive lineman, tied with Suh's bowl game. Just tremendous. Not often you see a defensive lineman take a game over. His DC that year? Bob Shoop. 

I remember someone saying…

I remember someone saying that last year, maybe around bowl practice? Could have been you. Makes sense for him. His best stuff was getting downhill and attacking gaps. 

Barrett makes sense at either of the ILB positions honestly. Reminds me of 2017 Devin Bush before he blew up. About the same size. Not as strong but stillbstill like a pitbull.

 

The "recruiting is…

The "recruiting is correlated to success" argument is almost always a misunderstanding of statistics by those looking to use that point in discussion. Which should be no surprise to anyone that has had any applied statistical training and read a newspaper, book, blog or magazine in the last century. This is not a new phenomenon, no matter your feelings on current society. 

Most of the articles written in support of recruiting rankings are written by the recruiting services. Agenda? Not only do they have some slant in the articles themselves, but as others have mentioned the entire ranking process is kind of a sham set up to ensure that the statistics always come out in their favor. They use where a player is drafted as their primary metric - flawed to the core. ]Here is how the draft metric and their interpretation of the performance get wonky:

 

CLAIM: Recruiting Rankings Predict NFL Draft Picks And Therefore Talent

Well established with many statistical studies. Draft order is not the predictor of NFL success that anyone who works in or around the draft media would have you to believe. 

They're favorite stat is "a 5* has x% chance to be drafted, a 4* is much lower, and a 3* is minuscule compared to that. We know what we're talking about".  You just have to look at how many kids are ranked at each level to realize what a bogus statement that is. Recruiting services rank anyone with a P5 pulse of offers as a 3*. In the 2020 class there were 2,617 recruits rated 3*. So the kid ranked 375 and the kid ranked 2,500 are on the same tier of talent?  So now they can claim that "5*'s are 33 times more likely to be drafted than 2*'s" (Yes I really just read an article that said exactly this), when it would take nearly the entire draft being 2*'s to make up the difference. Rates are not the correct statistic to be used. This allows them to simultaneously claim that if they "miss" on a pick, that he was a 3* recruit and that means NFL potential to them. They ignore that a huge swath of their 3*'s aren't even going to make an FBS team and many ride the bench at the FCS level. The recruiting services have created a system where they're never wrong. Genius! 

Programs with higher visibility, that win more, and will get more kids drafted. For a variety of reasons that aren't correlated to future NFL success. That is proven by all the studies that investigate draft rankings as a predictor of NFL performance. But by giving most of the kids that go to the top programs 4 or 5 star rankings, they are ensuring that their statistics will show that 4 and 5 star kids get drafted more. They don't have to hit on specific kids, just as an average, since they've decided that any correlation is a victory for them.  

 

CLAIM: Recruiting Rankings Predict College Team Winning Success

Sure, but again, this does not mean what the people using it in arguments for recruiting think. I have seen so many times on Michigan blogs that use these articles to show that lower recruiting teams can't consistently beat teams with higher ranked classes. 

Like the draft picks, this a self-correcting metric that will always move to ranking the teams who win the most with better recruits. Do higher ranked recruits tend to go to play for winners? Without at doubt. But there are still plenty of kids who are getting the 4* bump to correlate with the rate at which their programs are getting kids drafted. 

Even more so than draft picks, the way that people use this claim of team recruiting ratings as a predictor of team success understand it incorrectly. Is their a correlation? Sure. But that does not mean it is a predictor of any match ups. Look at how much the recruiting rankings are used in any data-based prediction models. SP+ uses team recruiting ratings for his pre-season projections, but by the time the model gets enough data from the season it reduces the impact of that variable to very little. It's just not that good of a predictor of game outcomes. He even weights each individual class according to experience to make it as good as he can and it still doesn't have the impact that people think it does. 

Recruiting services will try to make the case for Alabama or Ohio State as a perennial #1 recruiting team and national contender, but that argument only works if no outliers make the playoffs, or if teams at all levels or rankings consistently beat those at lower levels. As Connelly has shown, that just isn't true. Focusing on top teams being top teams as a mode of analysis also fails to show the incredibly "Talented" teams that underachieve far below a level that they should, if the rankings were such a strong predictor. Even bad coaching and bum luck shouldn't be able to sink some of these teams. FSU has been in the Top 5 most talented teams every year except the one year they were 6th. USC has been the only team that even come close to the insane recruiting tier that OSU, Alabama, and Georgia have been at. 

The gap has gotten incredibly large between the truly elite recruiting teams and the merely good recruiters, and yet how little that has predicted success. Let's use 247 team talent tool for some examples: 

In 2019, the gap between Ohio State and Clemson was the same as between Michigan and UCLA. The true recruiting gap between OSU and Clemson is probably larger, because Clemson's highest rated classes are underclassmen and their experienced classes were ranked much lower. And yet - Was Clemson aspect against Cincinnati, Utah, USC, and Cal. They lost 8 games and that was with an extraordinarily favorable cross conference slate. The gap between Alabama and Auburn is the same as the gap between Michigan and Maryland. Dive into the weeds, and you will see teams ranked extremely closely outside of the top 40 that put teams on the field that were clearly different levels of physical talent. That's more of the rule than it is the exception.   

Bud Elliot's blue chip ratio highlights that the gap is extreme for the contenders, (80%+ for the top 3 this year, 50-64% for everyone else), and even more extreme below that level, yet even he makes a disclaimer that this does not equate to predicting winning. It's just the bare minimum that history has provided. In the tier of 50%+, it's anyone's race to the playoffs. 

CONCLUSION

The claims are just not accurate, and any other method of analysis indicates that Craig's (any many other good comments) point stands - there is a clear inefficiency that can be exploited by an elite scouting and recruiting organization. There is also still room in CFB for good coaching to overcome any real or perceived talent gap when it comes to winning football games. Someone else made the great comment: Every year a team of unrated guys could be put together that contends for a playoff spot. Do they hit at the same rate as 5*'s? No. But that's a failing of the recruiting services. All a team can, and should, care about is getting the best 11 on the field at a time. It's clear that as good of a job as some teams do, far more can be done. 

Clemson has shown that they can repeat their success in these regards with regularity. Their run thus far has been with teams that are either close or identical to Michigan's talent rankings. They win with good coaching and even better scouting. For every Georgia, whose talent keeps them on the cusp with unimaginative coaching, there is a Texas who hires the hottest coaches and underperforms their stellar recruiting rankings. For every Alabama, maximizing every ounce of a wealth of talent, there is an even more impressive Minnesota who found diamonds in the scraps and won games they had no business competing in.

 

 

Stunning to me that Will…

Stunning to me that Will Latu is not being recruited as a LB, and that UM is not pushing for him over Phinney. 

Rape culture is real. It is…

Rape culture is real. It is under-reported, under-investigated, and under-prosecuted. It is a deeply disgusting crime. It exists at every major campus in the US, and we need to do something about it. 

 

But this is not the way. Please, everyone, report this vile account. Anonymously publishing unsubstantiated allegations is reprehensible. 

How about a nice gazpacho? 

How about a nice gazpacho? 

Didn't the Giants have what…

Didn't the Giants have what they called their "Amoeba" defense for a few years? Can't remember which years or who the DC was. Almost everyone but the NT was standing, moving all around, faking wherever they wanted. Actual coverages we're pretty standard except it was as positionless as you can get. 

The Jaylen Harrell…

The Jaylen Harrell disrespect is so real. 

There's a good quote…

There's a good quote somewhere about the most righteous toiling unseen. 

Sherrone Moore might be the…

Sherrone Moore might be the best of the bunch. The whole offensive side can flat-out 'croot. 

Couldn't agree more. Auburn…

Couldn't agree more. Auburn hasn't had more talent than us since 2016 and they've found a way to make the Iron Bowl a game and take 2 out of the last 3. I thought UM bullied Alabama fairly well most of the bowl game and got beat strictly by the big play differential. Mac Jones hit his deep throws and Shea... Did not. We are recruiting well enough to compete. Need better QB play and defensive coordination in big games. 

Jaylen Harrell comes to mind…

Jaylen Harrell comes to mind. Vilain should be able to come back in '21 if he so desires. 

This seems like an average…

This seems like an average class for us lately. Just for giggles, I did some class calculator scenarios. 

 

Scenario 1 - Closing about as good as we possible can. I still think we have shots at higher ranked guys, and I LOVE some of the guys with lower rankings like Hisatake. I digress. 

Offense:

Donovan Edwards

Cristian Dixon

Xavier Worthy

Rocco Spindler

Drew Kendall

 

Defense:

George Rooks

Rayshaun Benny

Quintin Somerville

 

That puts us at 26 commits. Projected composite score of 285.48. Normally that's good for right around the 5th ranked class in the nation. Pretty damn good in my opinion. Not a total pipe dream, but I don't think we'll close like that. 

 

Scenario 2 - 

We don't get Edwards, we get Prophet Brown.

We don't get Spindler, but we do get Kendall

We don't get Rooks, we get Schuster

We don't get Somerville, we get Hisatake

We don't get Fidone, we call it good at TE. 

We don't get Worthy, we get Andrel Anthony

 

That's only 24 commits and a score of 259.09. Normally that would rank 10-15th in the nation. Not awful. That's definitely the floor.

 

My gut says that even in floor scenario we have guys that are wins for our scouting department and will get a bump. I'll say 12th is the floor. 5th is the ceiling. The commits have been so early for many teams, but I think that some top prospects will be open to recruiting until very late in the cycle. Given the interest we have from some legitimate top targets, I would say a playoff run opens the door for us to get into rarified air in this cycle, as opposed to a delay until next years. More of our usual recent results will have us around 7th-8th, which has been pretty typical. 

 

 

The first pod he did with…

The first pod he did with Vass was great, too. The more I get to hear Don Brown, the more I am certain that he is in the top 5 most knowledgable defensive coaches walking the earth. That includes NFL. 

It's also exceedingly clear that this mastery is an obstacle for him. He overthinks things and ,in-turn, overcomplicates for his guys. The only complete defensive install guide I have of his is a few years old and even then size of it is obscene. He repeatedly stated "more is more" and that he keeps adding to it. I really believe he feels like he needs to get a coaching win on every snap. (Brian's RPS in his UFR's).

Cover 1 is gods gift to defense. As long as you aren't a G5 or bottom tier P5 team trying to take down a powerhouse, it's all you need. It's simple in it's philosophy and complicated in it's execution. It relies on intelligence as much as athleticism. Know any schools that might have a leg up in that department? Good news is, when a defense can execute, it becomes a gorgeous dance that fits almost any situation and can combat any offense. Build some pressure packages off of it, have a couple situational change-ups, and bring in some pre-snap trickery. Once the ball is snapped - Cover 1. 

Belichick and Saban know this better than anyone. They scale it perfectly for the skill and time commitment of their players. They don't make it any harder than it needs to be. They build a framework that allows their players to win if they execute. They don't try to out-coach the opposition with scheme on every single snap. They rely on their scouting to help their players execute the base coverages as fast and efficient as possible. They know what the opposition is looking for pre-snap and disguise accordingly. 

You can say that Saban can be vanilla when he has freaks at every position. Sure, that might be the case. But as long as I don't have The Little Giants roster I would rather play one coverage that can handle just about anything, and play it as well as it can be played, than to have an array of coverages to try and match up uniquely to every situation. 

It's on the same area of the…

It's on the same area of the play sheet where you make your 225lb WILL the nose tackle on the goal line. 

It's wild to see so many…

It's wild to see so many players and journalists say they've never seen anything like it. Miami-FIU? Antonio Smith - Richie Incognito? 

That was my first thought,…

That was my first thought, but idk if he's as suited for a spread system as he was our old "pro-style". 

 

I think Anthony Romphf is an absolute baller and could flourish in a spread system. He can run very well and spins it as well as anyone in the country. Ranked lower, probably because of his height and weight. I have to believe we would have a shot with him if we want. 

Very generous. I am in. 

Very generous. I am in. 

Is Barrett still at VIPER or…

Is Barrett still at VIPER or is he inside now?

Not sure which Sam comment…

Not sure which Sam comment you're referring to, but this kid did test very well. SPARQ score of 111,  4.52 electronic 40yd dash, and an outrageous 40in vertical. 

Someone else mentioned it,…

Someone else mentioned it, but Muskegon always has a few D1 kids, and usually at least 1 P5 kid. East Kentwood has been cranking out P5 kids out of nowhere the past two years.

 

2019 - Logan Brown, Mazi Smith, Stephan Bracey

2020 - Bryce Mostella, Dallas Fincher

I once saw Rolando McClain…

I once saw Rolando McClain and a backup RB take on 5 frat guys. It was Rolando vs 4 and RB vs 1. 2 frat guys to the hospital. I saw Rolando ragdoll a few other folks over the years. Wild times. His nickname in HS was "boo" because everybody was scared of him. 

The draft advisory board…

The draft advisory board doesn't give 3rd-5th round grades. It's 1st, 2nd, or go back to school.

Serious question, but how…

Serious question, but how would I judge CMU's recruiting outside of the rankings? The rankings show them as recruiting at the same level they always have.