ESPN Week 7 Bowl Projections has Michigan going to the Rose Bowl

Submitted by WingsNWolverines on October 8th, 2012 at 12:58 AM

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/61128/big-ten-bowl-projections-week-7 

Michigan to the Rose Bowl? Seems legit. Looking at the schedule going forward

10/13 Illinois at home

10/20 MSU at home

10/27 At Nebraska

11/3 at Minnesota

11/10 Northwestern at home

11/17 Iowa at home

11/24 at Ohio

Realistically I see 1 loss and toss up. Nebraska without Burkhead could be the end of their reason. He definitley re-injured his knee this weekend. Could possibly be done for the year too. MSU isn't strong offensively this year 51st in passing and surprisingly with as good as Bell was made out to be 83rd in rushing. I see us putting down a serious beatdown on State this year offensively and shutting down Bell. Ohio is a toss up but after what Martinez and Burkhead did to Ohio's d line I see Denard running right through them. Thoughts?

Comments

One Inch Woody…

October 8th, 2012 at 1:06 AM ^

What? Really? Not Purdue?

... But.. but... Herbstreit said so!

 

/s

 

Really, I think it's a little premature, but if MSU or Nebraska can rack up one more loss, then I think we have a very good chance of making it to Pasadena.

Magnus

October 8th, 2012 at 8:36 AM ^

Burkhead's backup Ameer Abdullah has 86 carries for 514 yards (6.0 YPC) and 7 touchdowns.  He had 7 carries for 28 yards and 2 touchdowns against Ohio State.  Some of his yards came against weak teams, but so did Burkhead's.  Regardless, I wouldn't say Nebraska's running game is finished without Burkhead.

Michael Scarn

October 8th, 2012 at 1:10 AM ^

While I think Michigan is a better overall team than Michigan State, everyone knows they'll play the game of their lives against Michigan.  It has been and always will be their super bowl. So while I think Michigan wins, I'm not 100% positive.  It'll be a close game.  

WingsNWolverines

October 8th, 2012 at 1:53 AM ^

We've been kicked around by them for 4 years ENOUGH IS ENOUGH. Time to put Sparty back where it belongs. Away. I'm feeling very confident this year our DL will hold strong and hold bell to 100 yards on the ground or less. Our defense is already starting to come together and it's only going to get better come time we play Ohio St. Denard needs to keep this rythem throwing game going into Illinois. I thought he looked much improved than where he was two weeks ago with throwing 5 interceptions. If Denard can continue to solidify his throwing and our running game with either Rawls or Fitz can get back into being top 25 material again we will be terrifying,

On a side note I'd love to play Stanford or Oregon St.

Bodogblog

October 8th, 2012 at 9:25 AM ^

A portion of that first half was penalty assisted as well.  Indiana looked great - the up-tempo did seem to disorient the Sparty D - and took enough chances that paid off. 

But Wilson must have thought he had a defense, because in addition to MSU's adjustments, the Hoosiers stopped taking chances and thought they could sit on a lead.

Perkis-Size Me

October 8th, 2012 at 12:05 PM ^

You seem to forget that Sparty drew up the perfect blueprint the last 2 years for how to stop Denard. They're going to do the same thing this year. Blitz early, blitz often, rattle Denard, force him to make terrible throws. Hopefully this year, they won't have the snap count memorized.

You also seem to be grossly underestimating how important this game is to them. No matter what happens, they are going to play the absolute game of their lives in this game. This will not be a blowout, no matter how badly we all want it to be.  Then again, in rivalry games, you can throw everything out the window in terms of what should/shouldn't happen.

I think Indiana was able to put up 27 by the half because MSU just came in without any sort of energy. They probably looked at Indiana and saw an instant W. Then when the 2nd half came around, MSU completely shut them down.

joeyb

October 8th, 2012 at 12:23 PM ^

I know it wasn't obvious, but i was kidding about the relation between Indiana's and our success against MSU. I know it doesn't work that way.

That said, I still think that we are going to beat them by 2 TDs. This coaching staff is smart and they will draw MSU offsides with the center. Stopping Denard last year was mostly from a bad game plan that involved throwing too much and running too little in a trash tornado. MSU has "come in without any sort of energy" in all of their games so far. They can't move the ball. Stop Bell, stop MSU. Take out the CMU game and MSU has averaged 10.4 points through the first 3 quarters and trailed going into the 4th quarter in all 5 of those games. I don't think it's unreasonable for us to assume that we will be leading going into the 4th quarter. If we have a 2 TD lead, expect MSU to start getting desparate and to give up some big plays to us on both offense and defense. That's how we get 45 points on the board. That would look like the Nebraska game last year. 17-10 at half. 31-17 at the end of the 3rd quarter. 45-17 at the end of the game.

saveferris

October 8th, 2012 at 8:53 AM ^

Sparty is still a pretty sound team defensively.  Their performance at Indiana this past weekend, notwithstanding, they are going to show up for us on the 20th.  I think Michigan is the more balanced team this year and wins this game, but to be predicting 20+ point margins of victory is a little silly.  This game is almost never a blow-out.

inthebluelot

October 8th, 2012 at 10:40 AM ^

1996 Michigan (#9) 45 Michigan State 29 Ann Arbor, MI
1997 Michigan (#5) 23 Michigan State (#14) 7 East Lansing, MI
1998 Michigan 29 Michigan State 17 Ann Arbor, MI
1999 Michigan (#3) 31 Michigan State (#11) 34 East Lansing, MI
2000 Michigan (#16) 14 Michigan State 0 Ann Arbor, MI
2001 Michigan (#6) 24 Michigan State 26 East Lansing, MI
2002 Michigan (#15) 49 Michigan State 3 Ann Arbor, MI
2003 Michigan (#13) 27 Michigan State (#9) 20 East Lansing, MI
2004 Michigan (#14) 45 Michigan State 37 Ann Arbor, MI
2005 Michigan 34 Michigan State (#11) 31 East Lansing, MI
2006 Michigan (#6) 31 Michigan State 13 Ann Arbor, MI
2007 Michigan (#14) 28 Michigan State 24 East Lansing, MI
2008 Michigan 21 Michigan State 35 Ann Arbor, MI
2009 Michigan (#22) 20 Michigan State 26 East Lansing, MI
2010 Michigan (#18) 17 Michigan State (#17) 34 Ann Arbor, MI
2011 Michigan (#11) 14 Michigan State (#23) 28 East Lansing, MI

It has been a blow out 9 of the last 16 games. Watch a game or two will ya?

Raback Omaba

October 8th, 2012 at 10:03 AM ^

I love the shout out and the optimism, but I don't see us killing them. They still have a lot of talent on their roster (perhaps even more than us at this point) and match up very well on defense against Denard and our offense. 

It's going to be closer than you think - I still think we are the better team and that we win, but I don't see a blow out by any means.

 

Would love to see what you predict unfold - but I just don't see it happening realistically. Can't Raback anything though.

snarling wolverine

October 8th, 2012 at 9:20 PM ^

People are getting too cautious about the Sparty game.  If you don't want to jinx us, OK, but look, we've been their Super Bowl forever, and we've won 70% of the time overall.  (In Ann Arbor we've won more like 80-90% of the time since Bo took over.)  

Yeah, I know about the last four years, but we weren't a good team from 2008-10 - we were worse than MSU during that time.  It was not a surprise we lost to them then.  Last year we were, at best, MSU's equal (they also won 11 games and went 7-1 in league play), so it's not that surprising we lost to them on the road.   Now we look like the better team.  This series really hasn't been that unpredictable.  Usually the better team wins.

 

 

EGD

October 8th, 2012 at 1:19 AM ^

Michigan is beginning to look like possibly the only team in the Legends Division with both a quality offensive line and a competent defense.  And none of the eligible teams out of the Leaders Division impress me.  So, I like our chances.  That said, getting a W in Lincoln is never an easy thing to do, no matter what kind of problems the Huskers seem to be having.

 

orobs

October 8th, 2012 at 6:52 AM ^

Keeping realistic expectations also makes this board a little more pleasant.   Two weeks ago, we were a terrible team without a QB and would have been lucky to go 7-5.  Now, we beat a wildly overrated Purdue team and all the sudden we are scoring 45 on sparty and walking away with the B1G championship?

Tater

October 8th, 2012 at 10:12 AM ^

"Normal" is in the eye of the beholder.  I have thought all along that this team can win the Big Ten Championship, even after the blowout at Bama.  I still contend that if Michigan had played a tomato can instead of Bama, everyone would be talking about how great Michigan is at 4-1 and how it took six turnovers for top ten ND to get a 7-point victory over Michigan at home.  

As much as I hate to say it, I think Ohio is the best team in the conference.  Luckily, they can't go to the Rose Bowl.  Including Ohio's ineligibility, every team in the Big Ten has a "fatal flaw" that can be exploited by Michigan.  This team has a very good chance to make it to the Rose Bowl.  

Ali G Bomaye

October 8th, 2012 at 12:00 PM ^

  1. I don't know of anyone making a credible case that we would go 7-5 after the ND game.
  2. In the last two weeks, major question marks have been raised about our competition.  In particular, Nebraska appears to have a JV defense and an injured RB, MSU's defense is worse than expected and Andrew Maxwell has no accuracy, and Purdue is a mirage.

uminks

October 8th, 2012 at 1:41 AM ^

I'm gaining more confidence that we will end up with a 10-2 record. Hopefully the running game will improve through the season, so at least one or two of the RB can carry half the load from Robinson. The defense will be stellar by the end of the season.

michgoblue

October 8th, 2012 at 5:35 AM ^

I think you may be either underestimating our opponents or over estimating our team.

We COULD be 10-2, but we could also be 8-4 at the end of the season. Why?

Northwestern, little bro, Nebraska and OSU Are all game that we can lose. Not saying that we will, but assuming a loss to osu, is it that unfathomable that we lose one game to either MSU, northwestern or Nebraska?

UMgradMSUdad

October 8th, 2012 at 6:46 AM ^

If Nebrasak is without Burkhead, they really don't have much chance of winning against either Michigan or MSU.  I don't really see Northwestern as much of a threat either.  That leaves MSU and OSU, so there is a good liklihood that the game against MSU will determine who plays in the CCG.

UMgradMSUdad

October 8th, 2012 at 8:19 AM ^

Burkhead is the second most important part of their offense.  Against Ohio he was averaging 8.5 yards per carry and had 119 yards on 14 carries before he was injured.  He was on track to run for 200 yards for the game. Abdullah had 28 yards on 7 carries.  Now maybe Abdullah can pick up the slack, but Burkhead's loss puts even more pressure on Martinez to produce. You are right, though, their defense is not very good, and after seeing Miller run all over the field against them, their fans are not looking forward to facing Robinson.

Bodogblog

October 8th, 2012 at 11:44 AM ^

Why would you take those 73 yards away?  He earned them through good play.  Replacing an outlier event with an everage event (based on the new average excluding the outlying event) is one of the biggest flaws one can make in sports analysis. 

Say he pops that run for 20 yards instead of 73, what happens next?  Maybe they give it to him 5 more times and he gets 53 yards.  Maybe he breaks it for all 53 in the next play (or more).  Maybe he gets stuffed.  You don't know.  But what did happen is that he broke free on a great read and picked up 73 yards.  No further analysis is needed - take the actual event.

Turnovers that are random (as opposed to forced/stripped/intercepted) can at times be netted out as an outlying event.  But you should be very careful to net out performance outliers - big plays are enormous part of football.

michgoblue

October 8th, 2012 at 9:24 AM ^

I think that your take on nebraska may be a bit optimistic. Using the same type of homerism analysis, a Nebraska fan could write an analysis that says the following about Michigan:

Fitz can't run for shit. Take away Denard, and they have no rushing attack. As for their passing game, Denard throws the ball to defenders more often then he throws it to his receivers. Just bring a ton of pressure and he is a liabilty to them. Their receivers are either miniature, converted qbs, or true freshman.

As for their d, good luck stopping martinez' dilithium speed, especially with his new dominant passing game (1 pick for the season). I dont see how we lose to Michigan.

QuarterbackU

October 8th, 2012 at 10:12 AM ^

Uh, Martinez has 4 picks on the season, including 3 on Saturday against OSU.  As a new Omaha resident, however, I can confirm the rest of this type of take, very typical of Nebraska fans.

For some reason, they think they'll just be able to "shut down Denard" with their Swiss cheese defense, which is worse than last year's, which, if I remember correctly, 45-17.  Think they weren't keying in on Denard then?