Is a Coaching Change the Best Path to a Championship for a Good Program?
I've been reading a lot of posts and comments on the board regarding coaching changes, coordinator changes, and so forth. After Mike Greenberg's assessment that Michigan isn't elite, I really started thinking about what separates the "Elite" (Championship) teams from the "we-think-we-should-be-elite" teams. Going back 15 years, it seems to be pretty obvious. You need at least one (or two) of the following: Urban Meyer, Dabo Swinney, Nick Saban, or a Heisman-level QB.
- 2018 Clemson - Dabo
- 2017 Alabama - Saban
- 2016 Clemson - Dabo
- 2015 Alabama - Saban
- 2014 Ohio State - Meyer
- 2013 Florida State - Jameis Winston
- 2012 Alabama - Saban
- 2011 Alabama - Saban
- 2010 Auburn - Cam Newton
- 2009 Alabama - Saban
- 2008 Florida - Urban Meyer
- 2007 Louisiana State - (see below)
- 2006 Florida - Urban Meyer
- 2005 Texas - Vince Young (2nd to Bush in Heisman)
- 2004 USC - Matt Leinart
So, if I'm not mistaken the only exceptions are 2007 LSU (with Matt Flynn at QB, Les Miles, and recruiting that rivaled Alabama's) and 2005 Texas with Vince Young who probably should have won the Heisman and eventually shredded USC.
What does it mean? I think if you have a 10-ish win coach who recruits at a top 12ish level, you should hold steady. At that level, coaching changes are pretty meaningless unless you're changing to Meyer, Dabo, or Saban. Maybe we could randomly find the next coach to earn his way on that list, but so many other programs are trying to do the same thing with every coaching change -- teams who believe they should be elite too -- Notre Dame, Florida State, Florida, Tennessee, Nebraska, USC, and so forth.
In conclusion, I think we're better off hoping that Harbaugh finds that Heisman type QB that will put us up on the elite level. Hopefully that results in a Championship run and the program builds momentum like it did for Watson/Dabo. You continue to change coordinators and assistants when needed, and recruit so that the cupboard is at least somewhat full when that great QB is finally landed. Thoughts?
December 4th, 2019 at 2:23 AM ^
I think the hope/expectation/wish was that Harbaugh would bring/coach-up a Heisman-level QB, delusional or not.
And also, build/recruit like Saban, and certainly in-game coach as good as any coach in college.
2015 and 2016 were trending in the right direction years, and 2017, 2018, and 2019 have been wavering-to-okay at best.
December 4th, 2019 at 2:35 AM ^
I had similar thoughts regarding the QB position. I thought JH would turn us into an NFL QB prep school. After the first few years I started having doubts, and I even started to wonder if Harbaugh made Luck, or Luck made Harbaugh. And then ditto in the NFL with Kaepernick. Or maybe Greg Roman was the brain behind the 49ers now that we see what he's doing with Lamar Jackson. All valid questions. But again, what's the alternative? Spin the coaching wheel and hope we get lucky when that method hasn't worked for any of the "should-be-elite" programs of the last 15 years?
December 4th, 2019 at 6:29 AM ^
Roman has worked with dozens of QBs in the NFL - all of them pretty good, just to get to the league. The fact that he's had Kaep and Jackson go off like they have is great, but I think it portends to generational talents rather than a particular QB whisperer. Otherwise, he'd have many more - as would other notable QB coaches. I really think you need a perfect confluence of talented roster and generational QB. Or at least a very talented roster with a game plan that perfectly combines their talents, if you don't have that QB (ref: Eli Manning). Without the QB, there cannot be any holes in your roster...
December 4th, 2019 at 6:33 AM ^
Launching from the op's premise.
15 years, 10ish "consistent 10 win type programs" multiple year starters probably means around 100 different qbs at these programs over those 15 years. 4 of those qbs have marched their "10 win type program" to a championship.
These elite qbs are pretty uncommon (obvious). The odds of one program (Michigan) developing one in a 5 year period (especially considering the qb starting point and Harbaugh largely inherited his first recruiting class) seem really low.
December 4th, 2019 at 12:40 PM ^
I see your point. The odds of finding that Championship QB are slim. However, there are dozens of good programs making coaching changes every few years and none of them are finding coaches that can compete with the elites. So my thought is that finding the QB is easier than throwing a dart and hoping you find the guy to join the coaching Mount Rushmore. I would also hope that Harbaugh would have a slight edge in finding a QB considering his history as a QB and development of QBs. I think he made one great move already in changing to a mobile-QB friendly offense. That is another common thread of those championship teams -- Cam, Watson, Young, Watson, Tua, Tebow -- lots of mobile QBs.
December 4th, 2019 at 7:58 AM ^
Yep.
Harbaugh was supposed to BE that next elite coach like Saban or Meyer.
He isn't.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:28 AM ^
Hard to be that level of elite when you want to build a successful football program around student athletes instead of hired help.
December 4th, 2019 at 11:33 AM ^
Truest statement yet.
When you look at the acedemic level of the elite football schools, a couple are ok, the rest wouldn’t be acedemic bowl eligible.
Our challenge is we run (seemingly) a clean program, following the rules AND maintaining an acedemic standard clearly above all the “elite” football schools which hire players; that have stated (often) they don’t even go to classes.
For me, it’s steady as she goes, stay the course. Go Blue
December 4th, 2019 at 2:30 AM ^
I can generally agree with this. Harbaugh is clearly a good enough coach to adapt and get the program to 10ish wins with solid recruiting. The dabo example gets brought up often and, at the very least, is worth consideration, albeit Clemson has a vastly easier conference schedule and has a better recruiting ground.
The issue is how exactly Michigan makes that leap from 'pretty good 10 win seasons and near top 10 recruiting' to playoff contention and loads of recruiting stars, which at this point unfortunately seems to be beating Ohio State.
December 4th, 2019 at 2:46 AM ^
I really think it comes down to finding that quarterback -- whether by luck or by QB scouting skill. That's what worked for Auburn, Florida State, and Texas in their titles. We can't magically get one of the coaches mentioned above. We can't randomly move to Texas, Florida, or the south to become a yearly top 5 recruiting class. I think a lot of what Greenberg said is true, but we have one of the few coaches in all of football who is a household name and has a "brand". Maybe waiting for that stud QB and playoff caliber success is what pushes the program to that Clemson type leap. That just seems more likely to me than spinning the wheel grabbing some hot name coach, and hoping he blows by Harbaugh's level and rises straight to Dabo/Saban/Meyer level. Even Lincoln Riley (the hottest of hot coaches)w Baker Mayfield and Jalen Hurts is having trouble making that leap.
December 4th, 2019 at 3:24 AM ^
Yeah I can't say the itch to find a different coach for greener pastures has ever been particularly appealing. Attempting to fire coaches upwards in a last ditch effort to live the glory days is a tried and true method to permanently resign a program to Above Average status, and most P5 teams could do a lot worse than harbaugh.
That said, I'm not so sure Michigan's problems (or, at the very least, status) would be solved even with the discovery of a game changing quarterback. The interior line play, specifically on the defensive end, has rapidly declined since 2017, and bears no signs of improving in the future. Coordinator attrition seems to imply that Gattis I don't imagine will be around for longer than a year or two, leaving the fate of the current offense up in the air. And most notably, the 2017 class is appearing to be a bellwether for Michigan's increasing recruiting woes, given the massive attrition and rate of misses, which ultimately falls on coaching staff.
December 4th, 2019 at 3:46 AM ^
So do you think new assistants are needed, or a complete change? My belief is Harbaugh is probably as good as it gets for Michigan recruiting (from the HC position), because he has national recognition. My solution would be to keep Harbaugh and get rid of the assistants who aren't winning on the recruiting trail. I wish we could magically be in Texas or something, but that's not an option. We need Harbaugh to salvage what little chance we have when we go outside our regional footprint. If assistants can't bring home good players (top 12 or so class) using Michigan's brand and Harbaugh's fame as selling points, then we need better recruiters.
December 4th, 2019 at 6:54 AM ^
And most notably, the 2017 class is appearing to be a bellwether for Michigan's increasing recruiting woes, given the massive attrition and rate of misses, which ultimately falls on coaching staff.
It is pretty hard to make a trend from one data point. Even if the 2017 class was collective below expectations, how do you know that was not just a series of misfortunes? People act like this stuff is completely controllable ignoring the randomness that occurs in life.
Furthermore, randomness is a lot more streaky than people think. There is famous experiment around this. Ask a group of people to create “realistic” sequences of 100 heads-or-tails coin flips and add in a genuine sequences from a fair coin. Someone familiar with randomness can usually identify the genuine sequences from a fair coin because that sequence is the most streaky. Flip a coin 100 times and the odds are that you'll have a streak of at least 7 in a row the same.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:00 AM ^
" . The dabo example gets brought up often and, at the very least, is worth consideration, albeit Clemson has a vastly easier conference schedule and has a better recruiting ground. "
...and Harbaugh came in as an experienced head coach, including NFL experience. While Dabo had never been anything but an assistant.
December 4th, 2019 at 2:32 AM ^
I don't see any other coach available to improve the team over Harbaugh. It would be a mistake to let Harbaugh go and replace him with someone who willl probably only win 7-8 games per season.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:34 AM ^
I agree. That's why I joke about the 'national championship coaches store'. I've bumped into too many people who want to burn the house down after a loss without A) considering how good we really have it now B) remembering how bad it was, C) have NO IDEA who a realistic better candidate is. So their solution comes to 'lets roll the dice and hope it gets better. and finally D) forget that our OSU issue isn't a Harbaugh issue in particular. It's now been four coaches who have had an OSU problem since Tressel came on board.
Harbaugh has proven himself in several ways that I appreciate. Has it all been perfect? No. But:
* He is flexible; not 'stubborn and arrogant'. He let go his S&C coordinator to improve. He let go his buddy Drevno to improve. He let Pep go so he could bring in a new guy to run an offense that wasn't his normal calling card so that we could improve. Compare this to Borgess putting Denard/Devon under center; or RR running read option with Steven Threet and micro managing the defense. This is behavior that generally leads to improvement. He doesn't seem threatened by other talent; he likes having folks like Partridge, Brown, Warinner, Jedd, etc. on the team.
* He does things like the team trips. And from what I've read in the John U Bacon books really seems to care about his players as individuals whom he wants to grow. Maybe he sometimes does this too much; but that's not a horrible problem to have.
* We've avoided scandals.
* He's been flexible of mind enough to try things like the Satellite camps. It annoys me to no end that the NCAA can slap Chase Young on the wrist but find out Satellite camps somehow a threat.
* We used to get beaten down every year by not only OSU, but also MSU (who physically abused us as well) and Wisci. He's turned that around.
Where would I like to see improvement?
* Better recruiting. He's done well, but we need to do better. Reel in some 5*'s. Better DT's.
* Better retention. Losing guys like Durkin may have been a blessing in disguise, but losing Mattison and other coaches hurt. Now that we have Gattis, work on keeping him. Let's not lose Partridge if we can because I think he might eventually take over for Don Brown. On a player front, let's try harder to keep guys like Hudson and Solomon.
* His teams are far more mentally tough than under Hoke or RR; but they still seem a bit too emotional. In both the OSU and Wisci games it seemed they weren't as mentally tough as they could have been. Admittedly, they looked great at PSU and ND.
* Please turn Milton and/or McCaffrey into a real Heisman candidate.
If we keep a guy who has name recognition, a good personal rep, real coaching skills, and the courage to hire talent and make changes, we stand a good chance of making steady, if sometimes slow, progress. Roll the dice and we stand a very good chance of ending up far worse on the field, or maybe even having a nightmare scenario of a HC who bends so many rules to win we end up with some real scandal (taking a kid from jail to practice, for example).
The Burn it Down guys are nuts.
December 4th, 2019 at 2:38 AM ^
Harbaugh is a top-10 coach by winning % and by recruiting rankings over the past 5 years.
History shows it is unlikely to find better, even for programs that (like Michigan) have $60-$130 million/year on the line, and lots of football history, recruiting power, fan base, and booster motivation. Look at USC, Florida State, Texas, Tennessee, Miami, Arkansas, and Nebraska, as a handful of examples of that.
I think Harbaugh is a very good coach, who is adaptive, and things will go from good to better over time.
It took Swinney 5 years to get his first 11-win season, and 8 years before Clemson was a CFP-level team. During those years, he lost 5 times in a row to South Carolina (which is no Ohio State), as well as getting blown out occasionally by teams ranked lower than Clemson. They invented the derisive term "clemsoning" to describe that. Yet, look at where they are today after being patient.
December 4th, 2019 at 2:53 AM ^
Fully agree. I think a coaching change is much more likely to yield a Rich Rod than a Dabo. And I think that would probably be true if we changed coaches every couple years and kept flinging darts. We'd just find more Hokes and Rich Rods. That's basically what every "historical" program in the country has been doing, with the exception of Bama, Clemson, OSU. Not to mention that coaching changes set the program back years in terms of recruiting gaps.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:08 AM ^
" It took Swinney 5 years to get his first 11-win season, and 8 years before Clemson was a CFP-level team. "
Dabo Swinney experience prior to Clemson:
12 years as a college assistant coach (mostly WR), never a head coach, never even a coordinator.
Jim Harbaugh experience prior to Michigan:
2 years QB coach NFL, 3 years head coach University San Diego, 4 years head coach Stanford, 4 years head coach 49ers.
December 4th, 2019 at 5:31 PM ^
Ok, cool, good for Dabo. What does that have to do with Harbaugh?
December 4th, 2019 at 8:47 AM ^
What about LSU, Florida, or Georgia?
December 4th, 2019 at 3:43 AM ^
It's about working with the best recruits you can get. JT barret wasn't that great of a QB but Ohio state won a lot with him. In fact Ohio state's passing game wasn't all that good until a couple of years ago. It was always up and down. There needs to be solid line play on both sides of the ball. IMO, it's difficult for the head coach to make all that happen himself. The head coach needs to set the standard with each of the coordinators and position coaches. And hold them accountable for the schemes and player development. When you deep dive into any team on their success or opportunities, you can typically see a direct correlation to the staff and team chemistry along with how they prepare through out the season and off season. If you study the professionals in the nfl, NBA etc. The best players all usually speak about how hard they work, the time they put in but also finding a balance to other parts of their life. If building an elite team was easy, then their would be more elite teams.
December 4th, 2019 at 3:56 AM ^
I agree with some of what you said, but a lot of that is just buzzwords and philosophy. I'm not sure how you make that actionable. Barrett wasn't special, but the guy who designed the offense was. We can't (or won't) get him, so that's out. The guy who made his o-line click is on our staff right now. The guy running their defense was on our staff when they were killing us. Lots of teams are out there working hard and trying to make things click, but the only ones making it work have Meyer, Dabo, Saban, or a Heisman QB. So how does Michigan convert that into a plan? I'm not taking a shot at you, I'm just really looking to find what people think are actions/changes that could actually be made. My plan would be to really hold assistants to the fire, especially when it comes to recruiting results. No more nepotism, Harbaugh family ties, and so forth. Results or the door. As for QBs, maybe bringing in multiple QBs with every class. It obviously reduces scholarship flexibility, but we've seen how QBs transfer when they lose position battles.
December 4th, 2019 at 6:42 AM ^
You lost me with the nepotism bullshit. JayBaugh has proven himself as a position coach (both TEs and RBs have been pretty good with him) and as a recruiter. We can point to things that need improvement, and they've generally improved through the season. We had two true freshman run the ball and pick up blitzes pretty well this year. Are there better RB coaches available? I dunno - it's a fucking RB coach! One of the lowest ranking position coaches on the team. His TE's played very well. Doesn't he also assist Partridge with special teams? Stop with the nepotism bullshit, he's earned his keep.
I will agree that, at some point, he needs to find some spot outside of the family orbit to further grow as a coach. But I don't think he's done anything to be fired over...
December 4th, 2019 at 8:09 AM ^
I've been critical of the nepotism in the past, but Jay has been fine at his jobs. Thing is, fine doesn't cut it at Michigan. We need excellence in recruiting and development from each of our coaches.
Why is that that PSU, OSU, Wisconsin, and other schools find and sign outstanding running backs and we haven't had one since Mike Hart left 12 years ago?
Imagine how much better our offense would be with a Taylor or Dobbins.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:20 AM ^
Blows my mind we missed on Taylor. We literally took everyone from the state of Jersey sans Taylor over those two years. That would be our luck
December 4th, 2019 at 3:31 PM ^
I wasn't saying that Jay is a bad coach, but is he the BEST we can get. One thing about Harbaugh that I question is if he is too loyal to his coaching tree and family ties guys (and in this case, his actual family). He has had his best results at DC when he finally went outside of his circle. He had had his best results at OC when he finally went outside of his circle. Maybe he needs to follow suit with his assistants. Again, I'm not saying Jay is bad, but if he wasn't coaching at Michigan, would he land at a major program? Obviously you could say JimH is the coach and he can hire whoever he wants, but that method changes how I feel about him as HC. It seems to me that the "elites" just get the best coaches and best recruiters, like headhunters.
December 4th, 2019 at 4:07 AM ^
It seems that to win at the very highest level, your program has to take every possible advantage, all at the same time.
It takes all of:
0. Elite coaching at the head coach, coordinator and position coach levels. Overall strategy, game prep, position group prep and individual player prep, all elite.
1. Recruiting by any means necessary to land your top rated kids
2. S&C, including PED as needed to convert/upkeep the talent you have to the equivalent of 4-5 star competitive level
3. Total disregard for the student part of student-athlete
4. A strong but formally disconnected network of boosters/agents to keep the kids funded
5. 50-60+ hour week dedicated to real practice, in no way limited to 20 hours
6. Combo of local media and law enforcement who are fans, and are committed to protecting the program as opposed to Rosenberg-style kill shots.
7. Stability of the AD and the program as a whole. Even Alabama, Clemson, OSU require stability at this level to maintain their dominance.
Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, Ohio State, LSU all have much or all of this.
Texas, USC, Penn State, Florida, Michigan, Washington, Notre Dame all have, or choose to have, less than ideal conditions in some of those areas and are thus perpetually behind. When Michigan chooses to have all of that all at the same time, we'll catch up.
December 4th, 2019 at 4:20 AM ^
That's definitely the elephant in the room. The "illegal" tactics that we assume we aren't currently involved in, and that we assume every good team is involved in. I don't know how to address that. If we assume Harbaugh plays by the rules, fire him and get somebody who won't play by the rules? Even then, will UofM make sure any coach at UofM will have to play things straight, meaning we have no chance ever? In which case we embrace that ND/Northwestern thing where we lose, but brag that we lose bc we refuse to lower our standards? So, keep Harbaugh bc it doesn't matter anyway? I seriously don't know how to factor all of that in.
December 4th, 2019 at 5:19 AM ^
To answer the OP, Carolina says yes.
December 4th, 2019 at 6:59 AM ^
I clicked on this expecting an OP downvote for another shitty hot take thread, but it's pretty reasonable and offers decent information. Personally, I believe we need to stay with Harbaugh. I was really down after UW (like everyone else), and thought about a change. I'm no longer in that boat. I heard yesterday, on Marc Packer's talking head radio show, some Michigan caller whining about replacing Brown and a bunch of other things. Packer (as he often does) railed on Harbaugh, saying you can't stay the same and hope to beat OSU. Seriously? Dude, pay attention!
Harbaugh has run three different offenses (Fisch, Pep/Drevno, Gattis) trying to find something that will elevate things to that level. I think he's finally found it with Gattis, but it still needs some time to mature. It was really fun the last few games, but it's still raw - and that was clearly evident against OSU. Stay the course and let it mature...
He (JH) gave the defense to Brown, and look what he's done with it - top 5 in SP+ in 4 of 5 years (2017 was still top 15). The last two years have been very different defenses by scheme, this year especially. He's had to gloss over the lack of DT's, and was quite creative in doing so. The number and complexity of pass coverages this year was beautiful - they blocked up most of OSU's passing game, except for lack of pressure on the QB. He's an elite DC - stay the course.
You can complain about recruiting - the lack of DTs and CB depth is alarming and squarely on the coaching and 'crootin staff. I hope they aggressively address that. I can blame the rat fuck (GM) for tailing off on the DL crootin, but do we replace Zordich because he's not a good recruiter, at all? I dunno, he's pretty good at coaching corners, so where is the balance line?
My summary - hold the line and continue to improve recruiting and upgrading assistants when its clear that needs to be done. I think Harbaugh has done that.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:12 AM ^
" but do we replace Zordich because he's not a good recruiter, at all? I dunno, he's pretty good at coaching corners, so where is the balance line? "
In college? Heavily, heavily tipped toward recruiting.
An average coach who is a great recruiter is significantly more valuable than an above average coach who can't recruit.
December 4th, 2019 at 11:53 AM ^
That's sort of the Beilein issue, right? How far can a great coach carry you if you aren't getting the best of the best in recruiting. I'd argue OSU has better recruiters than positional coaches, and it seems to work -- but I don't know the answer.
December 4th, 2019 at 7:20 AM ^
I was ready to down vote this coming in but was pleasantly surprised. This was a nice change of pace from the usual perspectives. Good job, op.
One thing people forget, that 2016 team was very good and right there with OSU and had them dead. Let me remind you, the defense had that game in the bag. They didn't allow a TD until 1 minute left in the 3rd quarter! (Thanks, Don Brown).
Another thing, people are underestimating coaching turnover. Since Harbaugh has been here, we've had Drevno/Harbaugh/Fisch, Drevno/Harbaugh/Pep, Harbaugh/Pep, Josh Gattis as offensive coordinators. We have not had consistency with the offense staff/philosophy in the last 5 years so far. I would like to see the staff on that side of the ball remain in-tact for two more seasons and see where we're at.
To that note, the same goes for the defense. Keep the staff in-tact for two more seasons. Don Brown has done a masterful job here and consistency in the coaching staff/philosophy has been an important part of that.
We're a top 10 program with Harbaugh and co. Let's keep it that way.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:12 AM ^
What worries me is that Harbaugh's best team was with Hoke's players. Did any of us expect that in December 2014?
December 4th, 2019 at 9:11 AM ^
And Harbaugh got the most out of those players, where Hoke wasn't/couldn't. Point, Jim Harbaugh.
You could also argue Harbaugh's worst team (2017) was with Hoke's players. The 2015 recruiting class was a mix-bag of Harbaugh/Hoke because of the transition. 2018 (All Harbaugh's players) was a pretty darn good team until the OSU game. 2019 (Harbaugh's players) got pretty darn good towards the end until the OSU game but it was a transition year on offense (again).
My point is we need some stability for once in Harbaugh's tenure. Let the offense build upon the same (modern) system for a couple years in a row and let the defense continue to be a top 10 squad and see where we end up. Something tells me we won't be losing to PSU or Wisconsin anymore.
Harbaugh finally has his players, and they're pretty darn good. Look at the early returns from the 2018/2019 class, already, Hutchinson, McGrone, Mayfield, Haskins, Gray, Bell, Charbonnet, Dax Hill, I mean, that's pretty darn good early returns for the next two years of football. Are you really worried about that?
December 4th, 2019 at 7:23 AM ^
No coaching change. Stability and consistancy is needed before worrying about being elite. Harbaugh brings those things and I have no desire to go back to RichRod or Hoke type coaches where losing 5-6 games a year is the norm.
December 4th, 2019 at 7:33 AM ^
You don't know. He doesn't know.
December 4th, 2019 at 7:43 AM ^
I wonder if it is harder to develop QB’s now just because they are willing to jump ship, even to smaller programs, just to get on the roster. There is a real question as to whether we can keep Milton or McCaffrey when the other wins the job.
I think the move to grab Shea was a good one? But Then I think his development was stunted by the scheme switch and another new coordinator.
ruddock and Speight both had good trajectories. At least Speight did till he got hurt.
with the drops this year I wonder if we need a more dedicated WR coach.
im hoping we could grad transfer some beef into the D line. (Does anyone know if Jerry Ball had kids?)
My Pollyanna hopes are that whatever QB that wins out can come in looking that much better in year two of the system. If warinner stays and the O line stays stable, and we get some wideouts back, the O could be fun.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:13 AM ^
We absolutely need a WR coach in my opinion. Way too may drops in critical situations.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:41 AM ^
If you have a dedicated WR coach that dudes skillset is like 75% having networks of HS coaches, boosters and “family friends” to work with. Position coaches almost always are the ones in the recruiting trenches and thats the majority of their job. Coordinators and HCs give the speeches, these guys make sure the recruits are “open” to those speeches.
December 4th, 2019 at 7:54 AM ^
A while back, I met a former high ranking official from LSU. He was heavily involved with the Saban and Miles hires.
He had some interesting opinions, not the least of which was this:
Coachs that are also very smart (He used the term Human Chess Masters) are as rare as hens teeth. Most of them are dumb jocks.
He said, at the time, there were only a handful of masters in HC positions, including Saban and Meyer.
To be elite, you need to do a number of things other than coaching consistently better than anyone:
HS talent analysis, appropriate recruiting, player development, program cultural maintenance.
Very few people are capable of putting that all together, and creating a dynasty.
So the real question is this:
Would you rather we had what we had now, or take a chance on someone else, knowing we could go back to where were, and knowing how unlikely it is our next hire would be on a outcome level with Saban or Meyer? (Irrespective of other judgement criteria).
Incidentally, ND is in the exact same position. Long past elite status, and even struggling to be on top of the second tier.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:17 AM ^
Harbaugh is the guy for us. I still believe in him. But he needs to recruit better, even if that means stretching the rules a bit. He also needs to work on player retention. We have lost a bunch of 4* guys to the portal.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:31 AM ^
Jim isnt a well meaning idiot. Im sure like all coaches he’s trying to get whatever advantage he can get on the recruiting trail...but theres only so much the HC can do about it. This type of thing is a university-wide effort at the real football factories.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:40 AM ^
I don't think he's an idiot. I just think he still thinks he can win without getting his (and our) hands dirty. Maybe he can. I hope he can. But the best teams seem to be operating under an entirely different set of rules.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:11 AM ^
I agree completely with this. Although I also think he bends some rules that he sees as ridiculous, rules that don't pass the common sense smell test. I believe there are some benefits to entice players like Gary and Hill, but not the all-out funneling of vast sums of money through 'charities', or whatever. He stops short of that.
It's a touchy subject because nobody can prove anything. But we know OSU allows some shady things, that's been publicly proven. It wouldn't surprise anyone for a disgruntled player or booster to spark a flame. Georgia flipped Isiah Wilson on a last day phone call and visit, after a two year love affair with Michigan. Clean and above board? We all know that answer... Those are the things Harbaugh will not sanction, even if the AD authorized it.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:58 AM ^
"Most of them are dumb jocks."
That doesn't seem realistic given the organizational responsibilities those guys have. I'd suggest that they're often at the smarter end of the pool of former players.
I might make an exception for "Coach O," though. :)
December 4th, 2019 at 8:01 AM ^
Reminder that Dabo Swinney's Clemson lost between 2 and 7 games in each of his first 6 years as head coach. At that point, people used the term "Clemsoning", which meant "have a promising start to a season and then fall apart on the biggest stage". If you had told a Clemson fan after 6 years of Dabo's tenure that you'd be holding up his coach as a model to aspire to he would have thought you were nuts.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:11 AM ^
I wonder what would have happened if Harbaugh was allowed to continue with the satellite camp tour. I thought it was a game changer at the time.
It seems the best strategy is just to break as many recruiting rules as possible and just self report. OSU just talks to recruits whenever and self reports...NCAA is like: “well don’t talk to him for a week...and write a letter saying you’re sorry”
December 4th, 2019 at 8:18 AM ^
I still struggle with the notion of Dabo being an elite coach. Not enough track record outside Clemson where coincidentally a few years into his reign the whole team started looking like NFL guys and the team went from OK to elite as if by magic. Im not gonna deny that he found a formula there but I have my suspicions regarding the efficiency of that formula outside the Deep South.