CFP Chance

Submitted by Catchafire on November 26th, 2016 at 5:33 PM
A loss is bad, but this was a quality loss. If wisconsin, Penn state loses, and Louisville, and any other team loses above us,there is still a sliver of hope that we make it. Am I right? Can it happen???


Blue Durham

November 26th, 2016 at 7:03 PM ^

Ohio State is in.

The Big Ten Championship game is going to be Penn State vs. Wisconsin. The winner has 2 losses, just like Michigan, and also will have lost to Michigan.

So, is the committee going to take OSU and Michigan, both from the Big Ten, yet not take the conference champion.

Not a chance.

For Michigan to get in there would have to be 3 Big Ten teams and Alabama in the NCAA championship. And that ain't gonna happen neither.

The OSU loss was understandable, but the Iowa loss was a killer.


November 26th, 2016 at 5:36 PM ^

First we need to estimate where we'll fall. Alabama could lose this game. So could penn state and Wisconsin tonight. Then. Osu goes to big championship and loses. I think that would be the only feasible


November 26th, 2016 at 5:37 PM ^

getting their lothing on, but if msu wins, louisville already lost, and we get on upset in the title games I like our chances. Plus wisconsin is losing to minnesota..

Mr. Elbel

November 26th, 2016 at 5:38 PM ^

depends on what happens championship week. it's difficult because the teams we'd need to win to boost our SOS we also need to lose to not be ahead of us (UW, PSU).


November 26th, 2016 at 5:40 PM ^

The committee respects the Big Ten this year and will see this game could've gone either way

We need:

  • OSU to win the Big Ten
  • Clemson and/or Washington to lose

Then it's comparing resumes of us with the Pac 12 champ and the Big 12 champ. At that point who knows who gets the 4th seed, but even then I'd be surprised if we got it unless it was vs 11-2 Colorado or 11-2 Okie State

Given how the committee treated us post-Iowa, it honestly wouldn't surprise me if we only dropped to #4 next week

  1. Alabama
  2. Ohio State
  3. Washington
  4. Michigan
  5. Clemson


November 26th, 2016 at 5:40 PM ^

If Penn State loses today and Colrado beats Washington next week, I dont see how you can put anyone ahead of us, which would be another two-loss team, if you watched the game today.


November 26th, 2016 at 11:05 PM ^

I just won the Lotto, I got a $2.00 scratch-off just waiting to be cashed... Do I get that in a lump sum $2 dollar bill, or do I spread it out into 200 installments of $.01 each. I may even roll my windfall over into an investment or a couple investments ( by getting a $2.00 ticket or 2 - $1.00 tickets).

So I agree with you I won the lotto 100%, and their chances are less than 100%.


November 26th, 2016 at 5:46 PM ^

but when you step back and consider the trajectory expected upon Harbaugh being hired, we are ahead of schedule.

I feel confident in the ol, wr, rb, dl, qb, te, and s position next year. lb needs to continue growth and young cb need to shine. we will be in the same position next year but oh st will be at home.


November 26th, 2016 at 5:46 PM ^

I assume Bama and OSU are locks. Clemson is in if they win tonight and then in he ACC title game against Va Tech. Washington is in if they win the Pac 12 title game next week.

So we need Washington or Clemson to lose. If one of them loses, then we might be in as the best 2 loss team.

We also have to worry about Wisconsin. With their close 2 losses, committee could put them in over us if they win the Big Ten title game. Good news is that they're losing to Minnesota right now.

Colorado shouldn't pass us - we beat them handily. And if people point out that their QB got injured, remind them that we played that game without Jourdan Lewis and Taco Charlton - arguably our 2 best defensive players. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State just don't have the resumes. I can't think of any quality wins for either of them. Maybe OU over West Virginia, but they were obliterated by Ohio State at home AND lost a neutral site game to mediocre Houston.


November 26th, 2016 at 6:04 PM ^

If everyone else wins out, OSU is not a lock at all.

The Big-12 is virtually eliminated.

And the Pac-12 and ACC will 100% get in so long as it's named Washington and Clemson. 

And that just leaves the BIG Champion.

I understand that from a logical stand-point that OSU could argue for easily being the best team in the BIG (alongside Michigan), but I would be suprised (pleasantly) if Wash or Clemson get left out.

If it were just eye-test. Then the best teams are

1. Alabama

2a. OSU

2b. UM

3. Clemson or Washington

Everyone else is garbage.


November 26th, 2016 at 5:46 PM ^

This team put their heart and soul out there but still lost it won't matter I think we're gonna get blown out in the bowl game a loss like this makes the whole season meaningless unfortunately

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November 26th, 2016 at 5:49 PM ^

I think Michigan is one of the 4 best teams. Will the CFP? Probably not , because being in your conference championship game holds some weight we wont be carrying .

Nothing more we can do but wait and see and hope. But chances are against it happening .

Steve in PA

November 26th, 2016 at 5:51 PM ^

I think there is a better chance of the B10 getting left out than Michigan getting in.  PSU and Minn win today then  PSU loses to a 3-loss Wisc on the B10 Championship.  

1. Bama

2. Clemson

3. Washington/Colorado

4. Oklahoma


November 27th, 2016 at 12:00 AM ^

Oklahoma has a 0.0% chance of getting in over OSU after getting destroyed at home by them plus another loss.  

Even with some things not going our way today (PSU winning), we have a non-zero chance of making it. If CU beats Washington, it will be as simple as the committee putting a head-to-head winner in over a conference champ (us over Wisky or PSU and Colorado).  Why should Wisconsin go to the CFP despite losing to the best two teams in the East just because they play in a garbage division that was incredibly easy to win despite those two losses to the East?  They'll have a head-to-head loss against us.  The committee could easily defend putting us in.  Anyone with eyes knows we're better.


November 26th, 2016 at 5:53 PM ^

To hell with the people saying we won't deserve to be there.... We most certainly do, but at the end of the day, it doesn't come down to the eye test, and that's why we won't get in