CBS Sports article looks at QB completion % vs QB on target %
The article is about how Jarren Williams of Miami is a better QB than people think because he was fairly accurate at 77% of his passes being on target but only had a 61% completion rate. The only QB with a greater differential was Patterson who was accurate 75% of the time and only completed 56% of his passes. Not sure what is considered a catchable pass but this really emphasizes the crazy number of drops we had from our WRs this year. Hopefully another offseason with Gattis can help them to secure the ball better.
January 24th, 2020 at 5:13 PM ^
That 25% though ?
January 24th, 2020 at 9:21 PM ^
Honestly, I think their definition of "on target" must be exceedingly broad. As many "good" passes as would have been touchdowns if properly placed... and so many completely uncatchable... this stat feels utterly disconnected from reality...
January 25th, 2020 at 7:01 PM ^
What about the would-be TD passes that bounced off of someone’s hands, or drilled him right between the numbers? Shea was not the menace he was made out to be. All he can do is get the ball there, somebody has to catch it.
January 25th, 2020 at 8:35 AM ^
Always appreciate stats and new analysis. However, the king of stats reigns supreme: W/L record. Win any stat category with a sub-par W/L record and instantly sink into the obscurity of the sea of meaningless stats. .
January 24th, 2020 at 5:34 PM ^
I feel like this could be a very misleading stat. Like how does it take into account WRs that make great adjustments to poorly thrown balls, making it look like the QB's pass was close to the target.
January 24th, 2020 at 5:38 PM ^
Not to mention that alot of Shea's problem was before he threw the ball, as in reading the situation and throwing to the guy who was wide open. These stats would have been a lot better if he had thrown to the blitheringly open guy.
January 25th, 2020 at 8:57 AM ^
I'm sure there are a couple of plays like that but (a) good WRs are supposed to make adjustments, (b) there were equally a good number of throws that hit guys in their hands or near their bodies and they just dropped, and (c) with hundreds of passes the noise would hopefully be cleaned out. The big issue I think you can ding Patterson for is not throwing downfield as effectively as before, but Patterson became the whipping boy for a lot of issues with the offense that weren't his fault. One was his receivers consistently dropping balls and not running great routes (Black in particularly got dinged by the coaches on the sideline a couple of times, and DPJ had his missteps especially if the defender could get his hands on him).
January 24th, 2020 at 5:35 PM ^
Did Brian ever do UFRs for Ohio State and Alabama? I'd be curious to see what our receivers' catch rates were this year. It seems like just about all of them had some pretty bad drops.
edit: Nevermind, the article covers this:
So what explains this difference? Well, Miami's receivers couldn't catch, is the simplest way to put it. Of the 130 FBS teams, Miami's receiving corps ranked 117th nationally in on-target catch rate (number of catchable balls receivers catch) at 80.2 percent. Only seven Power Five schools had a lower rate, with Michigan coming in 129th nationally at 75.2 percent (again, sorry, Shea Patterson).
I'd still like to see catch percentages for individual players though.
January 24th, 2020 at 5:42 PM ^
Is it too late for DPJ to return for his senior year? Seeing these numbers just make his decision all the more puzzling.
January 24th, 2020 at 6:08 PM ^
Did DPJ have an issue with drops? I know it felt like criticism of him was off-limits after the PSU game, but it felt like Bell was the one who dropped a lot of passes. Maybe it's not true, but it felt that way to me.
January 24th, 2020 at 6:11 PM ^
Bell had some bad drops for sure but a lot of his drops were also from diving for bad passes or having to come back to them. Wish we knew if this program they used counted "on target passes" as anything a WR touched even if it was a poorly thrown ball
January 24th, 2020 at 9:01 PM ^
More than any other point in the OSU game (more than Shea’s fumble, Hudson’s offsides, or any defensive miscue), DPJ’s drop in the endzone on third down was the point where the game was lost, IMHO.
January 24th, 2020 at 6:55 PM ^
Summation of receiver stats based on UFRs
January 24th, 2020 at 5:41 PM ^
8 drops in the OSU game cost us at least 14 points, if not more
January 24th, 2020 at 6:27 PM ^
can’t get to 14 by kicking field goals. Try again.
January 24th, 2020 at 6:08 PM ^
Im just gonna call BS on this. Whatever theyre using to determine if a pass is on target or not is faulty. I watched Big Ten QBs play a lot, and just a ton of CFB in general, and Shea was one of the worst in terms of accuracy.
Sheas biggest issue though wasn't the balls he threw. It was the balls he didn't throw because he was scared to throw a pick or didn't see the wide open man. Shea would only throw the ball if a guy was damn near wide open. He couldn't fit balls into tight spots and he couldnt throw his WRs open
January 24th, 2020 at 7:57 PM ^
It's possible Shea and the receivers were bad this year. Call the metric confirmation bias for those who thought the receivers didn't play well if you'd like. Your post calls the metric creators out without specifically talking about what's omitted and comes across as a fallacy of authority.
January 24th, 2020 at 6:26 PM ^
The WRs didn't really help Shea much, but Shea gets a large portion of the blame along with the coaches. I wanted more Nico targets and hopefully we get them.
January 24th, 2020 at 6:29 PM ^
I don't remember drops being a problem at all, theyre probably counting all the balls that barely touched a finger as catchable. No way was Shea that accurate.
January 24th, 2020 at 10:30 PM ^
Might want to rewatch the Penn State game.
January 25th, 2020 at 6:53 AM ^
We definitely had a pretty significant amount of drops this year.
That being said this metric seems misleading because saying something is catchable doesn’t mean it was a good pass. If shea was late throwing a ball and it was accurate but was late enough to let the DB bat it away, would show up hear as part of the 19%?
January 25th, 2020 at 9:10 AM ^
"I don't remember drops being a problem at all"
Sorry man, you just completely eliminated yourself from giving any type of knowledge based insight on the season with that one comment.
January 24th, 2020 at 6:37 PM ^
For fucks sake people. Stop trying to re-write history.
Shea was a very average QB.
Above average running the ball (which he woefully underutilized).
Above average passer on short routes.
Below average passer on deep routes.
Well below average passer on timing.
Well below average on ball security.
Miserable at reading defenses.
Pathetic at going through progressions.
GOODbye.
January 24th, 2020 at 7:23 PM ^
But how was his putting?
January 24th, 2020 at 9:16 PM ^
If the hole would've moved to where he putted it he would've made every one.
January 24th, 2020 at 10:31 PM ^
Hole just didn't have a good enough catch rate. Balls were in the vicinity.
January 24th, 2020 at 8:43 PM ^
Amazing what happens when facts and data disagree with the hive mentality. Keep buzzing you little bees.
January 24th, 2020 at 8:52 PM ^
If Michigan continues to have QB play the level of Shea....???
January 24th, 2020 at 9:34 PM ^
I’m hoping better QB play leads to more wins next year. This stat makes it sound like Shea was a good QB and the WR’s were the problem, therefore I have decided not to believe it. -Seriously though, I watched the games. I don’t care what data is put out there, he missed too many throws (especially when guys had the defender beat for a TD) for me to believe he wasn’t the primary problem in the passing game. Yes, there were drops, but there were quite a few amazing catches as well.
January 24th, 2020 at 9:55 PM ^
Why are we doing this again?
It is possible, you know, that Shea was below average in some important areas AND our WRs dropped too many balls -- especially in key situations.
Shea's issues have been analyzed to death. No need to re-type.
Bell had a major case of the drops in more than one game, dropping at least two sure TDs, including the one against PSU in the clutchiest of clutch situations.
Nico, he good.
Black appeared flat out lazy in many cases. DPJ not as much, but also had the drops, especially in important situations.
Mental mistakes. Lack of focus. Not stepping up when needed.
Yeah, it's on the players - they are on the field. But coaching impacts this too.
Right now, Michigan football is screwed up, and there isn't just one reason.
January 24th, 2020 at 10:54 PM ^
We'll find out when the Lions use one of their lower draft picks on Shea, especially after he gets coached up in the senior bowl by the Detroit "beardman".
January 24th, 2020 at 11:21 PM ^
Oh, I don't want to give the impression I'm absolving Shea. In reality, I think it was much more on Shea than the receivers, and Shea's poor play in all areas of the QB role affected the focus and motivation of Nico / DPJ / Black. I just didn't feel like re-hashing all of his issues. I think we're all aware of those.
And yes, he has Lions 3rd round pick written all over him.
January 24th, 2020 at 10:46 PM ^
I am not a Shea Patterson hater and was convinced he would be great until he wasn't (outside of a few games).
This stat doesn't pass the eye test for me. Patterson had stretches where he was very accurate, but he just plain missed on a ton of throws. Yeah, we had some drops, but every college team does.
Patterson was great at times, but mostly just good. And "just good" doesn't get you into the top 10.
January 24th, 2020 at 11:02 PM ^
Was there a measurement of missed reads period?
January 25th, 2020 at 5:02 AM ^
Yeah, that's gonna be a no for me, dog.
January 25th, 2020 at 7:01 AM ^
January 25th, 2020 at 8:54 AM ^
I was told that Patterson always sailed his passes and the WRs would have caught 100% of the balls that got to them.
Patterson was off this year downfield, but the WRs (especially early on) dropped a ton of catchable balls.