Beilein and hotseat...is it fair?

Submitted by UMxWolverines on

I realize this seems to be a trend with John Beilein teams...it's either feast or famine in terms of offense because of the lack of a big man most of the time. I don't remember the defense being this bad overall ever though. 

Something has to give though. I don't know if it is fair to say he's on the hotseat just yet, but defense has to improve next year and recruiting has to improve. 

Izzo had quite the stretch during the 2000s where they were pretty mediocre. I don't think Beilein should be on the hotseat, but improvements must be made. 

WBALLZ

February 6th, 2016 at 4:39 PM ^

Outside of mcgary it was entirely unexpected that any of the others didn't play 3-4 years. That's an entire draft recruiting year and then some. It's fair to say that once they all blew up we should have expected them to leave but by that point we were way behind the recruiting eight-ball. It sucks that we didn't turn that success into a program that is able to reload instead of rebuild but I definitely stand by the unexpected attrition statement.



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WindyCityBlue

February 6th, 2016 at 5:18 PM ^

Let's start from the top:

1. Burke.  During his first year it was clear he was something special, so much so he knew that he would be gone after his 2nd year.  He surprised us by cleaning out his room (remember that?).  We saw the picutres.  No surprise here.

2. McGary. Number 2 recruit in the nation at one point.  Darling of our NCAA run.  He flirted right after that, but came back.  But we all knew he would leave after his 2nd year.  No surprise here.

3. Staukus.  I agree here.  He blew up late and we didn't have much time to react.

4.Hardaway.  First off, he did NOT leave after 2 years, he did so after his 3rd year.  His first year was pretty solid his first year and was clear at the start of his second year that he wasn't going to last his full 4 years.  No surprise here.

5. Robinson.  5-star recruit.  There was some buzz about him leaving after his first year, but his size and talent showed that he was likely going after his 2nd year.  We knew this well ahead of time.  No surprise here.

6. Horford.  I beleive he was a grad transfer so he stayed his 4 years.  His departure was sudden and unexpected, but he wasn't necessarily a game changing talent.

In the end, it doesn't matter how you project these recruits when they are high school seniors, it matters how you project them after arriving on campus and play at the collegiate level.  Recruits leaving earlier than expected happen all the time, but we had plenty of time to react and adequately fill the void.  At least that's what elite coaches do.

WolvinLA2

February 6th, 2016 at 4:00 PM ^

Considerable unexpected attrition? I don't see that as an excuse. We haven't had that much attrition. We should have a lot more talent than we do and the attrition wouldn't matter as much. Beilein had a ton of success with one group that was insanely talented, and has done little else. Sure, a team with Trey Burke, Nik Stauskas, Mitch McGary and Tim Hardaway Jr are going to be good. But a really good coach needs to figure out how to replace those guys and Beilein hasn't done that. I'm not saying fire him, but I don't think that day is far off.

WindyCityBlue

February 6th, 2016 at 3:27 PM ^

...JB is not the answer to this program.  He is an answer to our effort to dig ourselves out of decade long slump.  And while he got us to the NCAA finals and an E8, those are more "flash in the pan" type of success, than something more consistent.   We can do better than this, no doubt.  He is one step in the right direction, but he won't consistently get us to where we should be.

With that said, I don't think we should fire him.  His seat might get hot, though.  I think he has earned the right to finish on his own terms (which I think will happen in the next couple years anyway).  I say in the meantime, we devote as many resources as possible to find a young established coach that can recruit with the best of them.  Someone with energy UTM that will rub off on players and recruits.  Someone with some innovative ideas.  Assuming we have at least 2 years until that time, we should be able to find someone...if we start looking now.  Keep in mind, we have a new AD with previous success in hiring basketball coaches.  Warde may have an excuse to start finding "his guy".

Overall, I'm excited for the Michigan basketball program going forward.  I'm excited about the heights we achieve.  I just don't think JB with get us there.

BlueCube

February 6th, 2016 at 3:35 PM ^

If you want to solve the problem, you have to start paying the players (see MSU's most recent recruiting class). I'd rather not be there.

Basketball isn't football. It's sleazy as hell to get the top players consistently. A Harbaugh or even a Beilein, who can coach you up to the next level doesn't matter for the elite kids. They want nice things.

BlueCube

February 6th, 2016 at 6:30 PM ^

Probably about the entire class. It was someone quoting a Chicago high school coach who talked to him about it. He said MSU stepped up their game and that Izzo had others take care of it for him.

Of course if you believe Izzo's wonderful personality finally got through to the recruits, go with it.

Bubba

February 8th, 2016 at 9:48 AM ^

Hate to break it to you,  but we have been caught paying basketball players in the past and MSU hasn't.

Can you please elaborate on the violations for MSU's recent recruiting class?  This is the same MSU team that lost their highest rated commit last year to Purdue (Swanigan).  They likely need to pay better if they are paying.

BursleyBaitsBus

February 6th, 2016 at 3:34 PM ^

Greg Marshall, Mark Few ... there are plenty of dudes who coach extremely well at mid majors that would demolish Beilein's Michigan teams. 

Your denial is getting pathetic. 

funkywolve

February 6th, 2016 at 11:30 PM ^

I think those guys are good coaches but I'd be interested to see how Gonzaga or Wichita St would do in the Big 10 for 18 games.  Gonzaga isn't exactly an NCAA tourney juggernaut.  Few's first year was 99/00.  In this tenure Gonzaga has never made a FF.  They've made 1 EE and 4 other sweet 16's.  Two of those sweet 16's were in his first two years so in the last 14 years he's made 3 sweet 16 appearances.

Sure he has tons of conference titles but the Big West is a very weak conference.

WolvinLA2

February 6th, 2016 at 4:06 PM ^

Then let's get dirty. If literally every successful team is doing it the "wrong" way like you're suggesting, then why they hell aren't we? If everyone breaks the rules and the rules aren't enforced, then in my opinion there really aren't rules at all.

Yeoman

February 8th, 2016 at 12:07 PM ^

I think you can figure it out better through recruiting rankings.

In the current system it's possible to win--not consistent top-10 but Wisconsin-level success--by developing lesser recruits and keeping them around all four years. If you do it right, your well-taught juniors and seniors have a shot against the other team's five freshmen and sophomores.

But it is not possible to land a top-five recruiting class without getting your hands dirty or wearing a blindfold.

GomezBlue

February 6th, 2016 at 4:33 PM ^

Too many people judge JB by Izzo standards.  Izzo is a once in a generation coach--he'll be a hall of famer, if not the winnest coach in the B10.  After Izzo, who in the B10 has had the same success?  Bo at Wisconsin, but he's gone now.  Other than Izzo, Beilein is the best coach in the B10.  We could do A LOT worse.

corundum

February 6th, 2016 at 3:27 PM ^

Not on the hot seat but it's a shame we haven't capitalized on our final four / national title appearances. I know that basketball recruiting starts at a very young age, but it seems that we should start benefiting from earlier success by now.

bronxblue

February 6th, 2016 at 3:40 PM ^

There's so much that goes into recruiting beyond the results on the court.  Florida was a dominant program for years in basketball but outside of a couple years never really pulled in elite recruiting talent even when Donovan was there.  And UM has suffered a bit due to their success; you look at MSU's roster and you see a bunch of kids who were in the same years as Mitch, Stauskas, etc. still putting along in college, and that's how you win in college if you can't consistently bring in elite talent.  

I don't think Beilein will ever be a crack recruiter, but at the same time he's a good enough coach right now and I'm not sure who else is out there who would be demonstrably better and available.

allintime23

February 6th, 2016 at 3:27 PM ^

Yes. He's a good man and he's had some great highs but he can't have infinite job security because he mad the final game four years ago. The recruiting has been bad. The players have bad fundamentals. Hoping to get lucky against good teams is a bad way to go about business. It's time for a change.

Smidgens

February 6th, 2016 at 3:27 PM ^

I'm just incredibly disappointed that the Final Four seemed to have done nothing for our recruiting and perception.  And this year, we're a very frustrating team to watch, I was hoping the Minnesota and Rutgers games were just us playing down to the opposition but it's clear we are a mediocre/below mediocre team this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see only 2 more wins this season.

MilkSteak

February 6th, 2016 at 3:27 PM ^

Not a chance. People here don't remember how truly awful we were at basketball before Beilein showed up. We're in 5th place in the B1G without our best player for basically the whole year, we'll be alright.

MichiganMan20

February 6th, 2016 at 3:28 PM ^

He's not on the hot seat but he needs to get things moving in the right direction again. Guys like Tim, Trey and Nick are not walking through that door and even though Caris has been hurt, that can't be used as an excuse. Can't be blown out against every good team we play.



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Blue_In_Texas

February 6th, 2016 at 3:28 PM ^

Our lottery caliber player has been out like 22 of his last 29 games which is definitely a big part. 

 

I think there is a valid criticism to be made about not having our players play consistently up to their abilities though. 

Nofx1728

February 6th, 2016 at 3:29 PM ^

Still wide open 3s for a guy who has 8 makes. Turning it off now. Good lord this team sucks. Not sure anything changes once Caris comes back. We will still be horrendous at defense and rebounding



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UMinSF

February 6th, 2016 at 3:29 PM ^

My god, people here are entitled. We were in the final eight 2 years ago, and championship game 3 years ago! We are an NCAA tournament team this year. On what planet is that not successful?

Does nobody remember the embarrassment of the NCAA sanctions?  Do you forget the 15 lost years after?  

JB is clean, his teams are fun to watch, and he wins.  He's a master at player development. Count your blessings.

corundum

February 6th, 2016 at 3:44 PM ^

Would you say the same thing if this was Michigan football we were talking about? Denard running a spread option offense was fun to watch, but at the end of the day, I missed winning conference titles and rivalry games.

Chalky White

February 6th, 2016 at 3:30 PM ^

This is like a baseball season where fans think streaks (good or bad) will never end. Didn't he just sign a contract extension? He isn't going anywhere until this contract is up. His contract goes through the 2021 season. This is 2016.