247 Article: Projected Wins & Off Season Fodder

Submitted by MaizeMN on
HAPPY 4TH OF JULY MURICA! I was having my morning cup of coffee , staring at balls again and saw an article on 247Sports about projected wins and some other "toss-up game" musings. Highlights: UM favored in all games except two, PSU(?!) and OSU. Projected W/L, 7.7/4.4 Six games projected to be decided by 4 points, or less. Harbaugh is pretty good in those close games. They seems to be more bearish on the upcoming season than most MGoBlognosticators here, based on their metrics. It's an interesting quickie read; can someone add a link, please? I'm on a mobile device that won't work and play nicely. (Ima Technotard) Enjoy your MGoIDBBQ and GO BLUE!
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Off Season Fodder

Hail Harbo

July 4th, 2016 at 10:27 AM ^

Back in the day the lamentations of PSU fans were legion that PSU would never again compete for the MNC because they would be stuck playing a soft B1G schedule.  And then they got schooled by Michigan and OSU during consecutive weeks of their 1993 inaugaral B1G season.

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WolverineHistorian

July 4th, 2016 at 11:01 AM ^

Consecutive games, not consecutive weeks. Their schedule in October that year went in this order: Bye week, Michigan, bye week, Ohio State. When PSU joined the conference, JoePa not only demanded bye weeks but he specifically said which opponents he wanted those bye weeks to happen before. The Big Ten agreed and when schedules were made, they let them have this perk for the first four years.

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EGD

July 4th, 2016 at 12:19 PM ^

I remember being pretty pissed off about that. The four seasons Penn State had bye weeks against us happened to coincide with the four years I was an undergraduate, and they went 3-1 against us in those four seasons. I would read stuff in the Daily like defensive players saying "they totally changed their offense and all our keys were wrong in the first half." Once JoePa lost his bye weeks, M beat Penn State eleven times in a row.

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Mr Miggle

July 4th, 2016 at 6:19 PM ^

The Big Ten was willing to screw us over to bring in Penn State. We can't blame Dave Brandon for that one. Then Paterno claimed he never asked for any byes, claimed that it was just a coincidence where they fell. Lost my respect for him then. Of course, i would never have guessed how much lower my opinion of him would fall.

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Wolfman

July 4th, 2016 at 9:27 PM ^

Bye week before Michigan game for three years or it's a "can't do." I am sure today it would be OSU. 

Your post motivate me to pull out their schedule for random seasons a decade apart. 

First, 1960  BC, MIZZO, ARMY, SYRACUSE, IL, W. VA, MD, HOLY CROSS, PITT, ORE IN BOWL GAME.  3 LOSSES - UNRANKED IL, No. 20 SYRACUSE AND No. 19 MIZZO


A DECADE LATER, 1970:  NAVY, CO, WI, BC, SYRACUSE, W.VA, MD, OH, PITT. \

3 LOSSES, NO. 18 CO, UNRANKED WI AND UNRANKED SYRACUSE. 

I'm with you PSU. Don't understand why they were reluctatnt to vote you a NC when you managed to run the table against such stalwart competition. 

This was their shit every year in piling up their wins. MI, OTOH, as verified by College Football Warehouse: All-Time Toughest SOS;. Can understand PSU. Just fess up. 

 

 

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Perkis-Size Me

July 4th, 2016 at 9:20 AM ^

If we lose to PSU at home, then we're just all kinds of awful.

They're coming off another meh 7-5 season where they've lost a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball, their one unit that was any good, and they're breaking in new schemes on the other side of the ball too.



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MaizeMN

July 4th, 2016 at 10:09 AM ^

Looking longingly at ballz. It could be worse. I was telling a story to some friends about a misadventure that I had while caulking a bathtub. Midway through the description I heard myself say, " I had caulk on my shirt, caulk in my hair, there was caulk everywhere." Sigh...

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Micah_J_D

July 4th, 2016 at 9:25 AM ^

I stopped reading that article when he said Michigan has "no returning wide receiver making at least 15 catches in 2015". Jehu and Amara. You can throw in Jake too.

 

Edit: I posted this comment before I looked at the article again. He corrected his mistake, sometime after I posted the same comment above in the discussion area.

 

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JayMo4

July 4th, 2016 at 9:31 AM ^

So we have better odds of winning @MSU and @Iowa than at home against Penn State?  OK.

Call me crazy, but I think I may actually be more worried about Indiana than PSU.

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WolverineHistorian

July 4th, 2016 at 1:27 PM ^

God...that game. Probably the only time I ever wanted the season to be over after a 4-0 start. And my horrible fears after that game were justified. 1-7 the rest of the season with the only win coming against Delaware State.

Under RichRod, Hoke and even the first year of Harbaugh, Indiana has absolutely torched our defense. This is a thing we should probably get under control. Or at least put out a halfway decent effort.



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Bodogblog

July 4th, 2016 at 9:41 AM ^

This guy's done some interesting articles on 247 recently, though I'd like to see more explanation of the model he's using. Anything analytics based, assuming it's a sound model, is just going to tell you what past mass data tells you about the future. From what I can tell in this brief article, loss of lead tacklers, loss of QB, and getting crushed by OSU last year are the reasons for being down on Michigan. I don't know how all of his factors interplay though. It's a good check on some of the runaway optimism on this team. I think Michigan will be very good, but new QB, new LBs (yes Peppers), and a weak running game / thin OL could limit their B1G chances. Yes a lot could go right as well

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Mr Miggle

July 4th, 2016 at 10:38 AM ^

don't make much sense. It's a big drop from the post season rankings, which factored in the OSU game. Losing the starting QB is legitimate, but citing the three leading tacklers sounds very arbitrary, more like grasping at straws. We lost a lot less than most teams and are adding Mone along with the freshmen and O'Korn. Very few teams will be close to that. Only OSU among our opponents. 

My guess is that he doesn't know our roster. Maybe he was confused by how the players are listed on Mgoblue. He seemed to make that mistake with regard to our receivers. Now he corrected the article, but not the model.

 

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bronxblue

July 4th, 2016 at 11:02 AM ^

The tackler thing exposed UM needing to replace their LB core. But tackles are a bit overrated because LBs and Saefties tend to dominate that category by the nature of the position. But this defense is so much better than this model gives it credit. And they'll plug in a couple of guys into the second level and those guys will hoover the tackles lost and it will be seen as a non issue.

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San Diego Mick

July 4th, 2016 at 9:44 AM ^

this guy is an idiot, no fucking way we lose to Franklin at home after we pretty much pushed them around last year in their stadium no less.

Our squad is supposed to have an all time great defense, PSU will have a tough time scoring any points at all, 38-0 that game will be!

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FreddieMercuryHayes

July 4th, 2016 at 10:02 AM ^

Goo god. UM did not get very lucky. PSU got lucky to have a score line that close. They barely got 200 total yards! Hack averaged like 4.5 yards attempt! That's crazy bad. UM had like 120 yards in penalties and two stupid turnovers themselves. It was a beatdown that was marred by sloppy play on UM parts.



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We are back

July 4th, 2016 at 10:18 AM ^

I remember feeling like it was gonna be another Hoke era game, we should have won big but we let them stay around way to long and we would blow it at the end. Of course none of that happened but I was nervous their d line controlled the line of scrimmage early on and Barkley was running wild early.



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Mmmm Hmmm

July 4th, 2016 at 10:18 AM ^

I just watched the highlights a few days ago--the muffed punt was good luck but Hackenberg by the end wanted no part of Michigan's D. He actually came off the field on 4th down late in the game and had to be sent back on to go for it.

I'm also not a doctor not have I recently stayed at a Holiday Inn Express, but it would have hardly shocked me if it had come out that Hackenberg was concussed late in the game, because he looked out of it.



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befuggled

July 4th, 2016 at 11:04 AM ^

Michigan outgained and outplayed Penn State, but Penn State still was in position to win that game with a break in the fourth quarter (meaning a defensive touchdown or a lucky tipped pass).

Then Jourdan Lewis had a good kickoff return after their last field goal and they got the clinching touchdown.

I don't see it happening this year, though. The game is in Ann Arbor and Penn State has lost too much on defense.

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Perkis-Size Me

July 4th, 2016 at 11:28 AM ^

Keep in mind too that it was pretty obvious towards the end off the 4th that Hackenberg looked ready to quit. He was beginning to run off the field on 4th down with 3-4 minutes to go, with his team technically still in the game with a few lucky breaks and a defensive stop.

What QB, or leader of a team, does that?



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DrMantisToboggan

July 4th, 2016 at 10:46 AM ^

We won by double digits on the road, in a venue that is traditionally very hostile. After his first carry, Barkely averaged less than 2 ypc. That game was not even as close as the score.

This offseason they lost their QB and 3 best DLinemen. Now we get them at home. It's gonna be a paddling.



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bronxblue

July 4th, 2016 at 10:59 AM ^

PSU barely moved the ball, and as was common with PSU over the years their defense slowed down in the second halves. UM had 140 yards more, dominated 3rd down conversions, and barely let PSU get going. What slowed down UM were penalties, some real and some dubious. Hell, PSU's one TD scoring drive was saved by a couple penalties. PSU is behind UM right now, and has been for some time. The fact that PSU only lost by 12 last year is more impressive than anything else.

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