Who Will Be Michigan’s Starting QB in ‘24

Discussion about Michigan’s future at the QB position is inescapable.  This week we heard announcers pontificate about JJ McCarthy’s draft decision and also read numerous MgoBoard posts about interesting transfers such as Tyler Van Dyke and Dante Moore.

This diary aims to but some research and reason behind the potential chaos for your reading pleasure in this month between now and the Rose Bowl.

 

JJ McCarthy – approximately 30% chance

The Rose Bowl and College Football Championship outcomes and individual performance will heavily dictate how this transpires. Current NFL mock drafts have McCarthy as high as a first round pick (3rd QB taken). It is nearly a consensus that Caleb Williams (USC) and Drake Maye (UNC) are top five picks – everything else is inconsistent. I’ve seen McCarthy listed as early as the 21st overall pick. But other mock drafts have him behind Michael Penix Jr (Washington) and Bo Nix.

There is likely a financial case to go to the league. But, with the NIL landscape and next year’s draft class, a return would put McCarthy in the conversation for the Heisman Trophy , the 1st overall pick in 2025 and Michigan record books for wins and legacy.

It is still more than likely he goes to the league, but there’s a chance.

 

Jack Tuttle – approximately 15% chance

If there is another player on Michigan’s roster who would likely be a starting QB next year it’s Tuttle. Many Michigan fans are clamoring for Alex Orji and Jayden Denegal, but this year’s passing stats are telling. Tuttle has the most attempts outside of McCarthy and has one more season of eligibility. Tuttle would have a 6th year granted based on getting a pass for his 2020 COVID year, and taking a 2021 redshirt (he only appeared in one game). Based on my decent knowledge of these things, he will be eligible, although I don’t think its likely.

The only way Tuttle gets the starting job next year is if Harbaugh and Moore think he can take them to the playoff. And I feel strongly if you have that kind of backup waiting in the wing, you get him live reps in 2023.

There will be people on this blog that are worrying about the schedule, and I’m here to tell you that Michigan will be re-loaded next year (whether Harbaugh or Moore are at the helm). Michigan has excelled at keeping players longer through NIL, and hitting the portal. They can cover over any gaps needed to get them good enough.

 

The schedule is not as hard as we once thought with USC taking a tumble, PSU not making the roster and rival MSU taking a major step back this year.

 

Fresno State – Likely win

Texas – toss up

Arkansas State – likely win

USC – likely win (at home, and no Caleb Williams)

Minnesota – likely win

Washington – toss up (they replace a QB too, but it is on the road)

Illinois – likely win

Michigan State – likely win

Oregon – toss up

Indiana – likely win

Northwestern – likely win

OSU – toss up

Generally speaking, it looks 8 likely wins, and 4 toss ups. Lets say Michigan wins two of those 4 games, they would be 10-2 with an outstanding schedule and quality wins. They would be in the playoff (maybe even with a 9-3 record).

That being said, is Jack Tuttle the guy who can beat two of Oregon, Texas, OSU, Washington? If not, the coaches will turn elsehwere.

 

The Field – 5%

I realize there was a time when Davis Warren was the backup, and that Alex Orji is a good runner. Jayden Denegal has even shown a pulse. Still, Tuttle has had more pass attempts than all of them and I feel it is unlikely he gets jumped unless there is an injury or something unforeseen. It is telling that Orji has only thrown one pass with Michigan (and it was last year).

Meanwhile Denegal may have it but again, wouldn’t we have seen more of him in games against teams like Purdue, MSU and Iowa? This feels unlikely. Again, if one of these guys can win 2 of those toss ups, and not drop a clunker, they will get the nod.

 

Jaydn Davis – 15%

If JJ wasn’t ready as a freshman, it is hard to think Jaydn Davis will. But on a pure athleticism basis, Davis is probably a top option. It feels like he will need to have a strong summer with the playbook to beat out Tuttle who would be in his 6th year at a P5 program.

 

A Transfer – approximately 35% chance if I added all these numbers up right.

Jack Rudock, John O’Korn, Shea Patterson, Alan Bowman, Jack Tuttle. Jim Harbaugh has routinely recruited and started transfer portal QBs. If Tuttle is not the guy, they can take a player for one year while grooming Davis. This would allow them to possible have a depth chart of 1. Transfer, 2. Tuttle, 3. Davis. Of course, this would create churn with some of the other QBs mentioned, or maybe Orji finds a different role (H-back, TE, etc). This may be dependent on who is available – and alongside Oregon and Washington, Michigan should have the pick of the litter.

There have already been a number of transfer QBs hitting the portal. Many are unlikely (Tyler Van Dyke stinks, and Dante Moore would be a slap in the face to Jadyn Davis). So who would we be looking at in the portal? A few of the top names like Riley Leonard and Will Howard are intriguing. Still, its too early in the process and surely more players will be in the fold by the end of the season.

We should have more clarity after the playoff as the team performance and finish will set the dominos in motion. Of course, even after all those words - it may not even be one guy. Rose Bowl opponent Alabama benched their starting QB, and Michigan has some intriguing options. Aside from a clear front-runner by August, maybe there is an open competition during the Fresno State game.