I am a fan of both Penn State and Michigan.  If you look at my posting history, much of what I post is in defense of Penn State.  If I were posting on Blackshoediaries, most of my comments would be in defense of Michigan. 

 

This summer, ESPN ran their pre-season college football special. They conducted some playful votes/polls from the ESPN college football writers about topics like traditions, uniforms, etc. I, as a fan of two programs, was amused by the coincidence that my two teams were so closely ranked in "uniforms" and "college towns."  Penn State was ranked 3rd best uniform, while Michigan was 2nd.  (Notre Dame was 1st.).

https://saturdaytradition.com/big-ten-football/michigan-penn-state-edeged-out-in-ranking-of-best-uniforms-in-all-of-college-football/

 

In College Towns, State College ranked 5th, while Ann Arbor was 4th (behind Madison (3rd), Athens (2nd) and Oxford (1st)).

https://news.olemiss.edu/espn-names-oxford-as-americas-best-college-town/  

 

I thought that was coincidental, but wondered half-seriously if ESPN was trying to create some intraconference heat.  Then, perhaps not coincidentally, a few days later, there was frontpage story asking which is the better head coaching job, Penn State or Michigan.  It is a paywalled insider story, but apparently, Rittenberg came down slightly in favor of Penn State.  He cited Michigan's advantages in "resources" and "recruiting" and PSU's advantages in "Recent on field success" and "Program Climate."

https://saturdaytradition.com/penn-state-football/michigan-or-penn-state-espn-breaks-down-which-program-has-the-better-head-coaching-job/

 

After ESPN three times "coincidentally" compared the two programs I support, I decided to put together a diary post highlighting a few comparisons.  Also, as a Penn State/Michigan fan who reads this site, I made some mental notes this season about a few Penn State directed comments on MGoBlog about which I thought I could shed some empirical light.  Lastly, I address some pet peeves I have about some Michigan fan perceptions of Penn State. To address these peeves, I discuss comments by Brian Cook, Seth Fisher, and a couple posters. 

 

 

Program Comparison:

 

Did you know that Penn State and Michigan are virtually identical programs since Penn State joined the Big Ten?  

 

Overall records 1993-Present (hand calculated, so I apologize if I messed up the arithmetic)

 

Penn State 244-112 (68.54% winning percentage)

Michigan 241-113 (68.08%)

 

This is about as close as you can get to programs of equal quality.  This tally does include 2021's season-to-date.

 

 

Conference Championships 1993-Present

 

Penn State 4 (1994, 2005, 2008, 2016).  Two Outright

Michigan 5 (1997, 1998, 2000, 2003, 2004). Two Outright

 

Franklin and Harbaugh Records at PSU/UM

 

Franklin 66-31 (68.04% winning percentage)

Harbaugh 57-23 (71.25% winning percentage)

 

Head to Head

 

Franklin 3 - 3 Harbaugh

 

Here's my posting history on this artificial, contrived "who's better?" debate

https://mgoblog.com/content/unverified-voracity-still-falling#comment-244184478

 

• Yes, Franklin, in 2021, is better than Harbaugh.  The Athletic's collection of non-Michigan writers thinks so.  CBS's staff thinks so.  Bleacher Report's staff thinks so.  247's staff thinks so.  Saturdays Down South's staff thought so in 2020.  Sporting News' staff thought so in 2020.  The only current ranking I can find that has Harbaugh over Franklin is something called Stay Alive in Power Five.  I've never heard of this esteemed publication, but it has Harbaugh 18th and Franklin 22nd.

 

Here are other takes addressing the same, odd debate (why are so many people interested in pitting Michigan and Penn State against each other?  They are division rivals, not bitter historical rivals...)

https://www.roarlionsroar.com/penn-state-football/2021/11/8468/comparing-james-franklin-jim-harbaugh-penn-state-michigan-rivalry-big-ten

https://www.si.com/college/michigan/football/michigan-football-wolverines-jim-harbaugh-penn-state-football-nittany-lions-james-franklin-top-25-coaches

This second one is an article by Spath...is he one of the people we can't post?

 

 

There are two things that Michigan fans will certainly cite next: national championships and head to head records.

 

Head to Head

 

PSU 10 -  14 Michigan

Interestingly, these programs never played until Penn State joined the Big Ten.  I find this odd since PSU played plenty of Midwest teams during their independent days including 10 games against Michigan State and 8 games against Ohio State.  

 

National Championships

 

Everyone knows that Michigan has a national championship in the Penn State era of the Big Ten (1997).  In both 1994 and 1997 poll voters chose to elect Nebraska national champions.  One of my teams was unlucky to have to share their championship with them (1997) and my other team was unlucky that they didn't get a share (1994).  

But, this is where the "defend Penn State" part of me can't help itself.  According to Bill Connelly's SP+ analysis of 1997, Michigan was the 6th best team in the country.  Nebraska was 2nd, behind Florida State.  https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2016/4/13/11410024/1997-college-football-nebraska-michigan-florida-state-florida
 

According to Bill Connelly's SP+ analysis of 1994, Penn State was #1 by a fairly sizable advantage.  According to Connelly, "Yes, Penn State was superior, and because of one specific side of the ball. This wasn't the best defense of the Paterno era...but the offense was an outright wrecking machine. "  Nebraska was 4th, behind PSU, Florida, and Florida State.    https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2016/4/20/11464048/1994-college-football-nebraska-tom-osborne-penn-state
 

As a fan of both programs, I tend to just say that each of my favorites have fielded one truly elite team since 1993.

 

Below, I have some commentary about a few Penn State related items.  First, as the PSU-UM game nears, I noticed a few posts on the board upon which I thought I could shed some empirical light.  
 

Then, if anybody is still reading, I wanted to address some pet peeves I have about Michigan fans' attitudes about Penn State football.  I feel compelled to explain why I think this site underrates Franklin's coaching job, specifically not appreciating the very fine work he did in 2014 and 2015.  I use Brian Cook's Rich Rodriguez comments to justify Franklin's great work.  Second, I want to address Seth Fisher’s preseason rubbish opinions about Penn State ruining Sean Clifford.    

 

 

Upcoming Game Notes-  3 Notes on This Weekend's Game
 

 

Note # 1

 

I saw MGoBlogger RonSwanson13 say this:

• "Clifford is a wildcard. He can run, but is he healthy enough right now to consistently be an issue? If he’s not and just sits back in the pocket, our DEs will most definitely have a chance to tee off. I imagine will see a lot of quick passes to avoid that. Michigan will need to tackle well."

 

 

Here is my response: 

• Penn State's offensive line is quite poor.  They have been overwhelmed all year.  But, this also means that their offensive coaching staff has experience scheming plans to mitigate this disadvantage. 
• Michigan is ranked 62nd in the country in sacks.  Penn State has played some other teams with very good pass rushes and have passed the ball quite successfully.  They played Ohio State (#4 nationally in sacks), Wisconsin (#18 in sacks), Maryland (#23 in sacks), and Auburn (#46 in sacks).  
• In those contests, Penn State had a (relatively) healthy Clifford and they passed for 361, 247, 363 and 302 yards.  They will have some success passing on Michigan.

 

Note # 2

 

I saw numerous people in this thread commenting that Penn State's rush defense is bad/a weakness/they couldn't stop Illinois/etc...

https://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/michiganpenn-state-fork-road

I don't believe this is true and I don't think Michigan fans should expect a weak rush defense on Saturday.  Alex.Drain does a fine job explaining what makes Penn State's defense so strong here: https://mgoblog.com/content/fee-fi-foe-film-psu-defense-2021   But, he only focuses on PSU's game against OSU.  Let me provide more context from the rest of the season.

Penn State is 31st in the country in rushing defense (yards/rush allowed.).  They allow 3.56 yards per rush.  This is quite good.  In 5 games, they held their opponents to fewer than 3 yards/rush.  They allowed 3.1 yards/rush against Wisconsin.  These are six very strong results.  Against Ohio State and Auburn, they allowed 4.74 and 4.55 yards/rush respectively.  While these numbers are not great, they are solid for the quality of opponent.  Ohio State is 6th in the country in rushing (5.69 yards/rush) and Auburn is 18th (5.26 yards/rush).  Penn State held each of these top 20 rushing offenses below their season average (by .95 yards against OSU, and .71 yards against Auburn).  

I cannot explain how they played against Illinois.  But, in 8 out of 9 games, Penn State held their opponents to below average rushing performances.  If you want to put your eggs in the Illinois basket, I think that's a mistake.  Michigan averages 5.31 yards/rush (right in that OSU/Auburn part of the curve.). I would expect Penn State to hold Michigan under its season average, but in the same way that they did against OSU/Auburn: marginally successful but not dominant.

 

Note # 3

I saw MGoBlogger Winterblue75 say this:

• I think PSU saves their best shot for OSU. We get either a decent Penn St or a Frames Janklin Penn St. both of which are beatable on any Saturday, it just depends on us. 

 

Here is my response: 
 

• Completely disagree.  Penn State (Franklin's Penn State) has had two big road games this year (#12 Wisconsin and #5 Ohio State).  In both games, they were conservative and risk-averse.  Their big home game (#22 Auburn), they were very aggressive.  They ran a fake punt with Mustipher, Dotson threw the ball, trick plays with lineman set with wide receivers to get a tight end uncovered.  They will be aggressive because this is their second big home game of the year.  Penn State plays with more aggression at home.
   

This part of Penn State's schedule is a perfect mirror image of the opening part of their schedule.  They opened on the road against a highly ranked foe.  (#12 Wisconsin). They played very conservatively, relying on defense and special teams.  They punted 7 times and went for it on 4th down only one time at a very reasonable place to go for it (at the Wisconsin 34 yard line.).  Two weeks later, after tuning up against a lesser opponent, Penn State was far more aggressive at home in front of the Beaver Stadium crowd.  They went for it twice on 4th down against Auburn, once at the Auburn 44 and once at the Auburn 43.  It's not unreasonable to punt from the 44/43, but Penn State was aggressive.  They threw in trick plays, etc.

This part of the schedule perfectly sets them up to open up the bag of tricks.  They played a highly ranked opponent on the road two weeks ago (# 5 OSU).  Very risk-averse, only one fourth down attempt, no trick plays that I recall.  Then, they had a tune up against Maryland.  Now, they return home to play a highly anticipated match-up against a highly ranked foe (# 6 Michigan.). Given that Clifford has looked healthier and healthier each game since returning against Illinois, I would expect two things.  First, an aggressive game plan backed by the energy of the home crowd.  Second, and more importantly, I would expect this is the game that the coaches finally allow Clifford to start running again.  Prior to his injury against Iowa, Clifford ran for positive yardage in every game (except Villanova when they coaches knew they did not need his legs to win.) Since the injury, not so much.  He even noticeably slid to avoid crossing the line of scrimmage against Illinois.  In the clips Alex.Drain posted of PSU/OSU, Clifford is a sliding machine.  I am not sure exactly how many carries since his injury have been sacks vs. actual runs, but the vast majority of his run statistics in the last three games have been sacks and scrambles (not attempts to get downfield.)  He's run for negative yards in each of the last three games, but I wouldn't expect that against Michigan.

 

 

7 Offensive Lineman and the underrated coaching of James Franklin.

 

I hated the Rich Rodriguez hire.  I remember my reaction to the news very distinctly.  After I heard the news, I texted a friend (big college football fan, LSU guy) and said "Damn, we're never going to recruit a first-round receiver ever again."  I hated the style of WVU football.  I remember watching the WVU-Georgia 2006 Sugar Bowl and hating what WVU brought to the table.  Basically, WVU came out with their novelty (at the time) offense and raced to a 28 - 0 lead.  After that point, they were outscored 35-10, but held on to win 38-35.  But, this was Rich Rod's offense in a nutshell.  Shell-shock people at the beginning (beginning of a game, a season, a coaching tenure).  But, the opponent will figure it out, they will adjust, and Rich Rod has nothing left to offer because he is not a good football coach.

 

As everyone knows, Brian Cook was a huge proponent of the Rodriguez hire.  After that disaster tenure, Brian Cook has said repeatedly that the state of the program post-Carr was terrible (talent on the roster wasn't good enough) and that no one would have succeeded in keeping Michigan's bowl streak alive in 2008.  If memory serves, I think he said Carr probably wouldn't have made a bowl in 2008 with that roster.  B. Cook always pointed to the fact that Rich Rod inherited 6 (approximately) offensive lineman and you can't win with what he had.  If this is true, how did James Franklin make bowl games in 2014 and 2015?  The answer is that Franklin is a good coach.  The answer is Franklin hired a good defensive coaching staff.  Brian Cook's reasoning for Rich Rod's failures don't hold water.

When James Franklin arrived at PSU, they were on scholarship restrictions.  Initially, they were allowed to have 65 scholarship players in 2014, but during O'Brien's last year, the NCAA relented and said Penn State could have 75 in 2014.  Penn State wasn't able to quickly fix the issue in one recruiting class.  So, during the 2014 season, Penn State actually had about 68 scholarship players.  Two guys quit the team but stayed in school.  Per NCAA restrictions, these two would still count against their scholarship limit.  That brought their total to 70.  Penn State gave out 5 walk-on scholarships to use the rest of their cap space.  https://www.statecollege.com/penn-state-football-breaking-down-the-scholarship-situation/

Of these 68 scholarship players, 7 were offensive lineman. (They had 8 lineman, kicked one off the team during spring ball) 

https://247sports.com/college/penn-state/Article/James-Franklin-proving-change-is-possible-at-Penn-State-52899485/

 

With 17 fewer scholarship players than everyone else, and with only 7 (SEVEN) O-lineman, Franklin kept Penn State's head above water and made bowl games in 2014 and 2015.  

Before anyone points out the radical scheme/philosophy change between Carr/Rodriguez as an explanatory factor, let me remind you that the same dynamic existed at Penn State.  Franklin inherited Christian Hackenberg, but instantly recruited a player with a vastly different skill set (Trace McSorley.).  If you look at Vanderbilt's recruiting under Franklin (2011, 2012, 2013 classes) every single quarterback to sign with Vandy was labeled by 247 as "Dual Threat QB."  All 5 Vandy QB signees under Franklin were Dual Threats. Not to mention that Vanderbilt's style of play was vastly different than O'brien's Penn State.  In 2011, Vanderbilt QBs ran the ball 159 times.  In 2012, Vanderbilt QBs ran the ball 97 times.  In 2013, Vanderbilt QBs ran the ball 151 times.  In 2013, Hackenberg's freshman season before Franklin arrived, QBs ran the ball only 50 times (22 of which were sacks.). Franklin brought a radically different approach to the QB position and the skill set he desired.

No one is going to say these were good teams.  The 2014 Penn State teams was bad.  Their offense was putrid.  They lost to Hoke's worst team.  But, they made bowl games despite being in a division with the #1 and # 5 ranked teams in the country.  That's why it always bothers me when Brian Cook trotted out the ol' "Only 6 Olinemen" argument.    

The reason that this has been bothering me lately is that some MGoBlog posters are acting bewildered that Franklin is a candidate for major head coaching jobs.  MGoBloggers site Franklin's overall record at PSU and say "it isn't that good" or they yell that he has a losing record against Michigan (3-4), Michigan State (3-4) or Ohio State (1-7). They never cite the fact that Franklin is 3-0 against Chryst. Or that he is 4-2 against Ferentz.  Or that Michigan and Michigan State built their head to head leads when Penn State was on scholarship restrictions (Penn State was 0-4 against Michigan schools when on reduced scholarship, he’s 6-4 since.) The fact that Franklin was able to get bowl eligible at all in 2014 and 2015, with severe scholarship reductions, "only 7 O-Lineman", and working with O’brien's low-rated recruiting classes (33rd and 24th ranked classes) is exactly why he is a candidate for major jobs.  People on MGoBlog hold his record against him, but what his record really shows is that he did a remarkable job under very difficult circumstances and, as he continues to build his program, he has turned the tide against MSU and UM.  (Won 3 of last 4 against UM, won 3 of last 5 against MSU).  He basically did what Brian Cook claimed was impossible: won bowl eligibility with 7 O-Linemen.  That's why he is a desirable candidate.
 

Perhaps MGoBlogger DonAZ said it best:

• "This is a good example of "respect where respect is due."  Franklin has done a fine job at PSU.  Some credit has to go to Bill O'Brien, who did a herculean task keeping that program from imploding.  But the fact is, Franklin took over a shaky program and built it back."

 

Seth Fisher's Comments on Penn State ruining Quarterbacks

 

One comment that bothered my "Defend Penn State" sensibilities was Seth Fisher's dubious claim during the season preview podcast that (and I'm paraphrasing here) Clifford is the third QB in a row to start for three years only to have Penn State's coaches ruin him.  Total rubbish.  Moreover, this wasn't a prediction.  He said this as a statement of fact.  An ill-informed take.  Total, inexcusable rubbish to claim this BEFORE Clifford had played a single snap of his third year.  When Seth Fisher addressed this poor take in a later podcast he said, "it looked like they had" but no resipiscence.  

Clifford is playing the best ball of his career.  I'm going to cite ESPN's QBR metric, mostly because it supports my argument better than other metrics and I admit it.  But, also, Clifford is a dual-threat QB and the QBR takes running and passing into account unlike QB rating.  QBR "values the quarterback on all play types on a 0-100 scale adjusted for the strength of opposing defenses faced."  Clifford is the #24 ranked QB nationally with a QB of 74.2. (Last year, he was 38th) Clifford has played 9 games this season.  In 6 of these games he has been remarkably, almost robotically consistent in the mid-70s.  His QBR scores are 77.2 (Wisconsin), 78.4 (Ball St.), 75.6 (Villanova), 76.1 (Indiana), 75.0 (Ohio State), 74.8 (Maryland.). He also had two very exceptional performances of 89.7 (against Auburn at Home) and 92.7 (for a quarter against Iowa on the road.).  

His outlier is Illinois.  Clearly injured, no other explanation necessary.  QBR 19.5.  With Illinois averaged in, he is still the 24th ranked QB in the country.  But, if you remove the Illinois game (I'm not really sure how ESPN calculates this, so I averaged things on a game to game and also a play to play basis) I believe his score would be approximately 79.9-81.4.  That score is good for 8th-10th QB in the country.  Last year, Clifford was 38th.  With or without Illinois averaged in, this is a big step forward for a Penn State QB.

Some people probably don't buy Clifford as efficient, reliable, consistent 75 QBR kind of player.  They remember too much from the Illinois game.  Or they think about 2020 and how lost Clifford looked. Even Alex.Drain's take is a total contradiction.  In this article posted yesterday, Alex.Drain says these two things:

1. "He's dealt with some injuries this season and it's not clear how close he is to 100% at the present, but Clifford is mostly the same player he's always been." 
2. "Clifford is a QB who is not likely to rip a defense into pieces (not like his OL will give him much time to do that anyway), but he is not bad either, and I think he's better than he was a couple years back." 
    

So, which is it?  The same as always or a better player that has developed over time?  The answer is clearly an improved player continuing his development under Yurcich.

What many people on MGoBlog never took the time to research was how the hiring of Kirk Ciarrocca as Penn State Offensive Coordinator in 2020 was inevitably going to set Penn State (and Clifford) back.  Most people, without understanding Ciarocca's coaching history, just watched Penn State regress in 2020 and wrote Clifford off.  Kirk Ciarocca is a fine coach with a history of turning WMU and Minnesota into good offenses.  But one thing Ciarocca is objectively bad at is installing his offense in year one.  EVERY TIME he started at a new school, year one was always a total reboot.  The first year stats were always a huge step back from the previous regime.  Ciarocca completely tanks an offense and then slowly builds it back up over the next few seasons.

 

Rutgers 

Before Ciarrocca (2007) 449 yards/gm 

During Ciarrocca (2008) 398 yards/gm 

                                (2009) 326 yards/gm (97th nationally) 

                                (2010) 294 yards/gm (114th nationally) 

 

Western Michigan 

Before Ciarrocca (2012) 439 yards/gm (38th nationally) 

During Ciarrocca (2013) 327 yards/gm (112th nationally) 

                                (2014) 438 yards/gm (41st nationally) 

                               (2015) 491 yards/gm (17th nationally) 

                                (2016) 481 yards/gm (19th nationally) 

Minnesota 

Before Ciarrocca (2016) 357 yards/gm (107th nationally) 

During Ciarrocca (2017) 308 yards/gm (123rd nationally) 

                               (2018) 379 yards/gm (86th nationally) 

                               (2019) 432 yards/gm (42nd nationally) 

Penn State 

Before Ciarrocca (2019) 411 yards/gm (56th nationally) 

During Ciarrocca (2020) 430 yards/gm (37th nationally) 

Penn State's yardage/game didn't decrease  because they ran so many plays per game (always trailing, throwing a ton in the second half.)  In 2019 Penn State averaged 68 plays per game.  In 2020, under Ciarocca, they averaged 79 plays per game.  But their average yards/play was dramatically lower, dropping from 6 yards/play to 5.4 despite throwing the ball, on average, 6 more times per game than they did in 2019.  This is the Ciarocca breakdown/rebuild effect.  Seth Fisher and anyone else trying to make conclusions about Penn State's quarterback development from a single season under Ciarocca haven't properly researched the context.  

The reason Seth Fisher claimed "this is the third quarterback in a row that Penn State ruined" was to paint poor quarterback development as an inherent PSU trait.  Yes, Hackenberg and McSorley declined in their third years.  But, Seth Fisher made no mention of the dramatic scheme/philosophy change that came during Hackenberg's third year.  Nor did he mention how great McSorley was his second year, jumping in QBR rating from 27th to 9th (showing great development by the coaches.)  Nor, did he mention the leg injury that McSorley suffered in October of his third year.  Nor did he mention what all Penn State observers knew: McSorley's decline was all about poor wide receiver play.
 

"According to The Athletic, which cited Sports Info Solutions, Penn State’s receivers dropped 25 passes last season for the 15th-worst total in the nation. If all those were caught, the Nittany Lions would’ve finished with a 61 percent team completion rate as opposed to 54 percent."

https://www.centredaily.com/sports/college/penn-state-university/psu-football/article233302032.html#storylink=cpy 
 

This was a WR coach problem, not a QB development problem.  Franklin fired the first-year WR coach (David Corley) at the end of McSorley's third year.  He did not fire the OC/QB coach.  This was a WR development problem, not QB development.

Penn State ruined Hackenberg in year 3, fine.  But there is no reasonable way that anyone can claim that Penn State has ruined three quarterbacks in a row.  It’s not true of McSorley nor Clifford.