Formation Notes: I should have thought of this before; I’m going to designate covered formations by putting the covered player in parentheses. So  “Gun 13 Quads (Y)” means shotgun with 1 RB and 3 TEs, with the Y (inline TE) covered.

I called this “Racecar B” to denote the four-DE personnel.

I called this formation Old Deuteronomy.

Because numbers, you see.

Substitution Notes: Michael Barrett continued to get run as a slot safety/LB hybrid. Rod Moore got the start at safety over RJ Moten, who was in on the last play so that appears to be a depth chart thing not an injury. The DT rotation included Morris but only a tiny bit of Jenkins. Snap counts are in the chart.

[After THE JUMP: A three-act structure.]

Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Offset Wk	4-2-5	4-3 Under	1	Play-Action	5	PA Skinny Post	Turner	Inc	-0.92
Moore is playing cov1 from the opposite hash to stay over Dotson which means Turner(+2, cov+2) is left in pure m2m. He stays in phase and breaks it up. *Hello!*
O18	2nd	10	Empty Stack	4-2-5	Nk Even	2	Pass	4	Sack(Grounding)	Hutchinson	-7	-0.33
PSU wants a quick slant to Dotson and are cutting all the OL. Hutchinson(+2, tackling-1) dodges his and gets to eat quarterback, can't get Clifford down, but delays him enough that the other DL are now back on their feet. Clifford throws it at the LT who literally standing there with his hands in his pants, then argues there was an eligible receiver over there. I think I get why PSU fans don't seem too bothered abut USC rumors.
O18	3rd	17	Gun Str	4-2-5	Racecar split B	2	Pass	4	Drag	Hill	24	2.77
Goofiness. Upshaw(-1, tackling-1) is stunting with Morris(+1, PR+1) and Upshaw should have a sack after the stunt blows up the blocking but takes an inside angle instead of getting to the open shoulder. He does get Clifford's shirt but the QB is able to get off a pinpoint pass. Hill(-2, cov-1) tries to break it up instead of giving up the completion and tackling for what would have been 4th and 8. Washington collects then collects the first down. Frustrating play but also hat tip to Clifford for that throw.
O42	1st	10	Gun Str Y-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Pass	4	Sack	Ojabo	-9	-2.40
Tempo(28). PSU's OL decide not to block the backside DE, so Ojabo goes and sacks.
O33	2nd	19	Empty 3w	4-2-5	Nk Under	2	Pass	4	Scramble	Hutchinson	11	0.73
Hutchinson goes inside and gets put in an arm lock. Are you allowed to...? Smith can't replace because he's getting 100% held—like getting spun inside by the guy with his shoulder pad (refs-1). That opens up room for Clifford to run because there's nobody open (cov+2).
O44	3rd	8	Empty Z Orbit	4-2-5	Nk Split	2	Run	4	QB Draw	Ross	13	2.88
Ross and Hill(-1) are lined up over the RB, which can't be right—RPS-1 I guess. Ross gets moving and Hill, who's supposed to be over there first, is trailing at the snap, but Ross looks back and stops while Hill keeps going. Ungh. Hutchinson gets trapped upfield by a pulling G, Upshaw(-1) and Morris(-0.5) get buried to make it easy.
M43	1st	10	Gun 12 Quads (Y)	4-3-4	Nk Under	2	RPO		Bubble/IZ	Hill	4	-0.11
Tempo(27). Michigan seems to have it pegged with Barrett hopping inside the TE but he gets held(refs-1) and yanked back. Hill(+1) has shot down and ends this after a short gain. Get used to this.
M39	2nd	6	Gun 12 Quads (Y)	4-3-4	Nk Split	1	RPO		IZ/Bubble	Hutchinson	0	-0.99
Same play but Hill is down this time so give. Hutchinson(+2) timed the snap, then two-gapped the T who wasn't ready for him to shut this down.
M39	3rd	6	Empty Quads	4-2-5	Nk Wide	1	Pass	4	Fade	Turner	Inc	-1.07
They test Turner(+2, cov+2) vs Dotson. He's in phase and puts Dotson where if it's caught it's out of bounds. It goes over their heads.
M39	4th	6	Obviously Fake Punt	NA	Fake Punt Defense	NA	Pass	NA	Fake Punt Pass	Q.Johnson	18	2.88
M does have 12 on the field before the timeout. PSU comes out in a different punt formation and everyone in the world, including the announcers and Michigan, know it's a fake punt. Quinten Johnson(-2) makes an ignominious charting debut by leaving the guy he's supposed to cover to peek back at the punter. Rough.
M21	1st	10	Empty Quads	4-2-5	Nk Even	1	Pass	4	Flash Screen	Hill	0	-0.39
This is dead from the start with three defenders locked in (RPS+1). Ojabo(+1) flashes past the T so fast that he almost bats it, and maybe forces the throw upfield some. Hill(+0.5) shoots in free to stop for no gain.
M21	2nd	10	Gun Str	4-2-5	Nk Split	2	Pass	4	Scramble	Ojabo	6	0.14
Ojabo(-1, PR-1) might have gotten poked in the eye by the LT because he grabs his face then goes too far upfield while not looking at the QB. He recovers to spin off and Clifford hasn't found anyone still (cov+2 that's a long time), and takes off. Ojabo makes a blind dive and can't get Clifford down. Ross limits the damage.
M15	3rd	4	Gun Dbl Stacks	4-2-5	Nk Over	1	Pass	5	Sack	Colson	-9	-4.12
Tempo(25). Colson(+1, RPS+2) comes after a half beat and the RB decides...nope, better double Hutchinson(+2, PR+3) whom, fair enough, has ruined this poor RT with a quick game of London Bridges Falling Down, carrying this poor sod through a hold, and running through the RB to meet Clifford the same time Colson did on his free rush.
Drive Notes: FG(42). 0-3. 10 min 1st Q. What a dumb drive.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O23	1st	10	Gun Wk Y-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Run		Pitch Sweep Option	Ojabo	2	-0.32
Ojabo(+1) plays it like an option though I'm not sure there was much of a read. He's got an angle to force it OOB for a short gain and then Hawkins(+1) arrives from on high to make it no gain but some pain.
O25	2nd	8	Empty Quads	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Pass	4	Bubble	Ross	4	-0.17
Tempo(26). M is dropping Hutchinson(-1) into this flat and bringing Colson (RPS-1) while leaving two high, which means they're all wrong for the bubble. Hill(+1) sets a good edge while they wait for Ross, who has to respect a draw.
O29	3rd	4	Empty Quads	4-2-5	Nk Odd B	1	Pass	3	Scramble	Smith	5	1.36
Smith(+1) swims past the C who sticks out his leg and trips him (refs-1) and the guy who should have called this also stepped right into Hinton's path to pursue. That leaves Ross(-1, tackling-1) alone with Clifford and he gets shook. RPS+1 Michigan dropped a DT right into the throwing lane
O34	1st	10	Gun Trips Bunch	4-2-5	Nk Over	1	Run		Zone Read	Colson	4	-0.16
Hinton(+0.5) holds up a double while Colson(-0.5) spends too long behind it. Hutchinson(+1) is two-gapping the RT who gets a fist full of shoulder pad to prevent a TFL (refs-1) but not a leg tackle as Colson gets around to help.
O38	2nd	6	Gun Str Orbit	4-2-5	Nk Under	2	RPO		Trap/Flare	Colson	5	0.11
Tempo(27). Hutchinson times the snap again but they're expecting him to do this (RPS-1) this time and the RT slides out to create a gap for the RB to follow the TE towards Colson, who's getting read by the RPO versus a flare, while the DT gets the split zone-style kickout (Trap). Hinton(+1) fights to that gap so Ross won't have to and gets to the RB's legs at the LOS but can't get him down. Ross(-1, tackling-1) has him lined up because of this but whiffs and the RB can fight forward for an extra four.
O43	3rd	1	Gun 12 Trips (Y)	4-2-5	Nk Split	1	RPO		IZ/Bubble	Colson	3	1.20
Tempo(24) PSU changed out a WR for a TE real fast and tried to get one over on the refs, with Clifford arguing as M's allowed to complete their change. Isn't it great when PSU fans talk about classiness? That change was for Jeter(+1) who beat back a double. Ross(+0.5) slammed into the T but Colson(-1) is hesitant on 3rd and 1 to attack the gap and they get it.
O46	1st	10	Gun Wk Y-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Under	1	Play-Action	NA	RB Flare	Ross	4	-0.16
Quick checkdown to the flat that stretched Ross with a TE he had to get under. Cov push, RB got an extra yard with some athletic stepping on the sideline.
50	2nd	6	Gun Str Y-Flex Bunch	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Pass	4	Bubble Fake TE Seam	Ross	19	1.50
Tempo(26). Fake the bubble to the same boundary they just threw it for 4 free ones and Ross(-2, cov-2) bites, freeing the tight end behind him for a chunk.
M31	1st	10	Gun Dbl Stacks	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Run		Zone Read	Jeter	3	-0.18
Tempo(31). Jeter(+1) is singled and fights across the LG to arrest with his arm. Welschof(-0.5) got washed by a double so RB can twist forward for a couple.
M28	2nd	7	Gun Dbl Stacks	4-2-5	Nk Split	1	Pass	5	Scramble	Morris	18	0.51
Tempo(23). Live I couldn't understand what Ross(-1) was doing but this is a stunt with the LB trying to free the DE as Morris comes in. It works (RPS+1) but the RT gets a two-handed yank down on Morris's shoulder pad (refs-1) and Ross isn't even looking at the QB so the RB leaves him to help on Morris. Upshaw(-1, PR-2) is no Ojabo on the other side and gets run out by the LT. The yank/double on Morris creates a lane that Colson(-2) should be shutting down but he's engaging uselessly with an OL.
M10	1st	Goal	Gun Wk Y-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Pass	4	Scramble	Jeter	1	-0.23
Tempo(27) but M got their starting DL back on after the long play. Clifford's 2nd read is to run but Smith(+1) and Hinton(+1) are on the case.
M9	2nd	Goal	Gun Bone Tight	4-3-4	4-3 Under	2	Pass	4	Fade	Turner	Inc	-0.27
A lot of time as they have a TE hit Hutchinson(+1) who's then held pretty bad by the LT (refs-1) and Ojabo(-1, PR-1) is caught by the RT and knocked down. Smith(+1) fights through to force a throw out of the endzone that Turner(+1, Cov+3) gets a hand on. Would love to see an all-22 of this.
M9	3rd	Goal	Empty Trips	4-3-4	4-3 Even	1	Pass	4	Pick Out	Barrett	7	0.16
Illegal bump here as they set a pick and the outside TE hip-checks Barrett off the route (refs-1). Throw is wide, possibly because Ojabo(+1, PR+1) quickly had the RT planted in the backfield, and the TE can't stay inbounds to score. Hutchinson had the LT beat and was going to get a sack or get tackled by that guy if the ball isn't out immediately.
M2	4th	Goal	Field Goal	NA	Field Goal	NA	Pass	NA	Fake FG	Gray	-18	-5.37
Gray(+2) smokes this out, gets to the kicker, runs him back, forces a fumble that Dax collects and if the holder isn't racing back to help immediately he's taking it all the way. Lol. Charted to give Gray his due so no RPS for Ultimate Frames.
Drive Notes: Fumble. 0-3. 3 min 1st Q. FRAMES! Next drive starts at the 2 after Harbaugh informs the refs of the college rules for downing punts.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O2	1st	10	Gun Wk Y-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Split	2	Pass	5	Snag	Hill	Inc	-0.25
PSU RB false starts and (refs-1) miss it. Hill(+2, cov+2) breaks on it and tips it away. Ball also goes off the WR's hands and then ricochets right between two DBs.
O2	2nd	10	Gun Ace	4-3-4	5-3 Over	1	Play-Action	NA	Hitch	Gray	12	0.57
Quick hitch under Gray(-2, cov-2) who's playing it soft and has no chance to get back before the WR can take an orbit step and get to the marker.
O14	1st	10	Gun 12 Dbl Stacks	4-3-4	Nk Under	1	Run		Zone Read	Barrett	-2	-0.52
Tempo(30). RPS+2 as Hinton(+1) and Smith are stunting, and Barrett is coming in from the edge to force the give into that after PSU's bad OL have one guy blocking Hinton's back for the two of them. Reminds me of Martin/RVB.
O12	2nd	12	Gun 13 4-wide	4-3-4	4-3 Under	1	Pass	4	Tunnel Screen	Colson	13	1.10
PSU brings out 3 TEs and M swaps Moten for Moore. Then they run a tunnel screen with a bubble look on the other side. Hinton(-1) doesn't tag up, Turner(-0.5) gets shoved by, and Ross and Hill are too far away to help as Colson(+1) does his best to constrict space then make the tackle. RPS-2. Colson is hurt after the play.
O25	1st	10	Offset Str	4-2-5	Nk Under	2	RPO		ZR Stretch/TE Screen	NHG	4	-0.11
Welschof(-0.5) gets moved off the LOS by the RT, fights across that guy to force the ball back inside to NHG. RB twists as he hits the hole to get a few extra. Ojabo(+0.5) had his legs.
O29	2nd	6	Gun 13 quads (YF)	4-2-5	Nk Over	1	RPO		IZ/Bubble	Hutchinson	10	1.34
Bad gamble by Hutchinson(-2) who tries to go inside the LT then trips on the RG's foot (M fans wanted a hold, there isn't one). NHG could replace but he's occupied with Jeter's double. Gray(-0.5) a bit slow to come down gives up a few extra. 1st Q mercifully ends.
O39	1st	10	Offset Str	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Pass	5	Bubble Fake TE Dump	Ross	-1	-1.30
F travels back and forth to reveal coverage and M rolls its safeties. It's a bubble fake that's supposed to get the S to abandon the TE leaking behind it, but Ross(+1, RPS+1, cov+2) doesn't bite on it, shooting around the LT to stick for a TFL, with an assist from Hinton(+0.5). Senior LB play there but I also think it was a Macdonald blitz that didn't reveal the LB-TE coverage.
O38	2nd	11	Gun Str	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Pass	4	Deep Hitch	Hill	Inc	-0.64
H travels to reveal m2m. Hutchinson(+1) draws a doubleteam but Ojabo(-1, PR-1) goes flying way upfield (slippery maybe?) Smith(+1) is coming through against his LG after a few beats and gets his hand up which might be why this sails way over a guy Hill(-1, cov-1) looks to have left open at the sticks.
O38	3rd	11	Gun Str Y-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Over	1	Pass	5	Sack	Hutchinson	-3	-0.21
Tempo(28). M looks confused on coverage from the tempo, but they're good (cov+1) on replay though we never find out if Turner can stay on this fly downfield to Dotson. We do get a replay because Hutchinson(+3) is singled against this poor RT and comes right around to sack-strip. Ball falls to the RT.
Drive Notes: Punt. 0-3. 13 min 2nd Q. When the D goes back on the field they have a 7-3 lead with 5 minutes till halftime, and the sun is out if you're wondering where your mood is supposed to swing.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Empty 13	5-2-4	Nk Under	2	Pass	4	Curls	Smith	Inc	-0.70
Refs-1 miss the LT jumping early--weird how they nailed M's guys for doing this more subtly. M has 5 DL on the field and PSU pounces to go 5-wide with their TEs. Problem is Smith(+2, PR+2) whipped the LG and bats this pass that PSU's lucky falls away from several M players in the area. RPS-1 here they had NHG on Dotson and Morris as spacebacker. So that's why they have Barrett.
O25	2nd	10	Gun Str	4-2-5	Nk Split	2	RPO		Iso/Slants	Smith	2	-0.23
Well-designed RPO (RPS-1) keeps Colson back. Ross shoots the big backside gap and Smith(+1) fights to get playside and get the RB started before Colson(+0.5) can jet back up.
O27	3rd	8	Gun Bone Tight	4-2-5	Racecar Splits	2	Pass	4	RB Wheel	Colson	Inc	0.01
Ojabo(+1, PR+1) gets a hand on Clifford's shoulder even though this is out in a second but it can't affect a perfect Willie Mays pass that Colson(-1, cov-1) isn't close enough to contest. RB drops it. PSU's next drive starts after M's miserable 4th and 2 with 1:35 on the clock and 2 TOs.
Drive Notes: Punt. 7-3. 4 min 2nd Q. Yes I know Ohio State saw that and is planning to do it with Henderson we're not there yet.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O38	1st	10	Gun Wk Z Orbit	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Play-Action	4	Jailbreak Screen	Ross	-7	-1.99
1:35. They try to cut Hutchinson(+1) but he stays up even as he hops to try to bat the pass and the prone RT kicks at his feet (Refs-1). That's where Dotson needs to run, as Ross(+0.5) flies out to make sure there's no escape. Dotson flees to the other side, goes upfield to get around Ojabo in the belief he can edge whoever else shows. It's Dax Hill(+1). It doesn't work out for him.
O31	2nd	17	Gun Str	4-2-5	Nk Split	2	Pass	4	Sluggo Seam	Ross	44	4.24
1:25. M shows zone as they shift and they catch M not being very good yet at the 400-level Quarters stuff. They have Ross in a low hole where he's checking a TE who chipped Hutchinson instead of dropping. Hawkins(-2) has no #2 threat to his side and doesn't look up the #3 on the other side. RPS-2: Read your Cody Alexander on Quarters vs trips on long downs please. Ojabo(+1) was coming through the LT and nearly got a hand on the pass as it came out.
M25	1st	10	Gun Wk Y-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Pass	4	Pop Pass	Ross	Inc	-0.45
1:13. Now they're picking on Ross(-2, cov-2) who's luck that Smith(+1) fought his way inside on the QB draw action and got into Clifford's knees as he throws and causes an errant pass.
M25	2nd	10	Gun Twins	4-3-4	4-3 Split	1	Pass	5	Throwaway	Upshaw	Inc	-0.61
0:53. There's uncalled holding and then there's this. Hutchinson(+1) gets by the LT and gets tackled. Upshaw(+1) gets into Clifford's face versus the RT and a chip from the RB, gets completely taken down mid-sack eight yards behind the LOS. Should have booted PSU out of FG range. Jeter(+1) pressures to force a throwaway because (cov+2) nobody's open after all that. Refs-2.
M25	3rd	10	Gun 2TE	4-3-4	4-3 Splits	2	Pass	4	Sack	Ojabo	-9	-3.24
0:46. Ojabo(+3) is around the RT in a flash, knocks the ball out, and it sits on the wet grass with all these Wolverines coming for it and Clifford manages to fall on it.
Drive Notes: FG(52). 7-6. 0:37 2nd Q. How are we only halfway through this stupid game? Not even half way. We're on Line 47/98.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Gun 13	4-3-4	4-3 Under	1	Run		Trap	Colson	15	1.32
This is supposed to hit backside but Upshaw(+1) set up on the hash and it looks dead as Smith(-1, tackling-1) and Hinton do their stunt to flip gaps. Somehow the RB slithers through a microscopic gap that nobody's covering: Colson(-0.5) accepted a crack block from the TE and got turned, grabbed, and locked out, and Ross(-2) hopped to the wrong side of the center. I think Ross is the culprit here because he ends up on the same side as Hill and Colson has a gap--it could also be that they didn't figure there was a gap to get through after the stunt.
O40	1st	10	Gun 13 Trips	4-3-4	Nk Under	2	Play-Action	NA	Flash Screen	Ross	7	0.70
Tempo(30). Bad numbers here as Ross(-0.5) can't get out quick enough and Barrett gets doubled (RPS-1). Don't like that PSU (like MSU) is coached to block with their hands outside the shoulder pads (and neither does M's bench) but that's how they do in the B10.
O47	2nd	3	Gun 13 Quads (Y)	4-3-4	Nk Over	1	RPO	NA	IZ/Bubble	Ross	-1	-1.54
Reads Ross(+2, tackling+1) who flashes out there in a hurry and gets an extra moment from Dotson bobbling it to chop him down in the backfield. RPS+1 as M had numbers to match but that was negated by refs-1 letting the TE grab the hell out of Dax.
O46	3rd	4	Gun Wk	4-2-5	4-3 Over	1	RPO		Trap/Flare	Ross	4	1.75
PSU catches M (RPS-1) standing up as Clifford looks to the sideline with 5 seconds on the clock. Flare option is open as NHG(+1) shot into the Trap gap but Hinton(-1) was not set and got blocked down, and that's enough space for the RB to leap into Ross.
50	1st	10	Gun Dbl Stacks	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Pass	4	Sack	Welschof	-3	-1.79
Good ol' fashioned pocket compression sack as Welschof(+1) wins a handfight with the center then gets a hand up to deter a throw at the first second one is possible. That allows Hutchinson(+1, PR+2) to muscle the LT into the pocket then absorb a shot from the LG. Ojabo(+1) turned the RT to force the step-up, then spun off to make sure there was no escape. Cov-1, RPS-1 as Mills was going to have Dotson open on the post route but no way Clifford can throw that when his C is where he needs to step up.
O47	2nd	13	Empty Quads	4-2-5	Nk Splits	2	RPO	NA	Broken Play	Ojabo	Inc	-0.83
Clifford screwed something up--PSU RB is like "what are you doing?" and Clifford gives himself a "that's on me" pat after the play--guess is he was supposed to wait for the RB to motion back to the backfield. M has four dudes covering the quads side and nobody with the TE who flowed out to the flat on the backside and is never looked at so guessing it's an RPO to a QB run. RPS+1 I guess but this is PSU bad coaching Ojabo(+1) rockets up to force a throwaway before Clifford realizes where the extra defender came from.
O47	3rd	13	Gun Str Y-Demi	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Pass	4	Mesh	Hill	Inc	-0.53
Clean pocket but not for long as Hutchinson(+0.5) is around his LT and coming back. Ross followed a TE across to leave this WR open 2 yards past the LOS but Hill is over that and has a good shot to slice down and end it well short of the sticks so that's fine. Bad throw makes it moot. Cov push.
Drive Notes: Punt. 14-6. 9 min 3rd Q. Clifford is showing signs of breaking down.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O40	1st	10	Offset Str	4-2-5	Nk Splits	1	Run		Counter Trey	Colson	10	0.92
M is slanting and Colson(-2) is very slow to attack, possibly concerned about the mesh point that is Hawkins's concern, and gets sealed by the puller. Hutchinson(+1) sets a small edge and looks about to fight across to two-gap the LT but gets very held (refs-1)—frustrating that it's now part of the plan. Hawkins can't get around Colson and it could be a big run but Moore(+1) shot in and just barely tripped him enough for the pursuit to catch up.
50	1st	10	Empty ???	4-2-5	Nk ???	2	Pass	4	Improv Seam	Moore	20	1.03
Tempo(27). ABC is trying to do a trivia question and misses the start of this play. As we come back Hutchinson(-1, PR-1) has been run out and sealed by the RT and Clifford can roll. Moore(-2, cov-2) is bracketing Dotson to the point where he forgets to drop back to Washington and gives up a chunk.
M30	1st	10	Gun Trips Bunch	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	RPO		ZR/Flash Screen	Colson	2	-0.21
Tempo(30). Gray(+1) tags the WR immediately so they have to give but M had numbers out there and are -1 in the box (RPS-1). Jeter(+0.5) was getting beat by a double but chucks the RG past Ross and turns that into a win. Smith gives up ground as he two-gaps the LG, Colson(+1) fends off the C to stick.
M28	2nd	8	Empty 13 Trips RB Orbit	4-3-4	Nk Over	2	Pass	4	Bubble Screen	Upshaw	Inc	-0.76
Upshaw(-1, RPS-1) is dropping into the flat here and he's the wrong dude for this. Barrett(+1) popped through a double and Ross(+1) is coming hard so there's a chance either will make a great play to save it but RB drops it.
M28	3rd	8	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Racecar Wide AA	1	Pass	6	TE Dumpoff	Moore	3	-3.22
M calls timeout a beat before the snap and gets to see PSU's play, which was probably a slot out. Come back with a six-man pressure. Ross(+1, PR+1) gets into Clifford's knees as he dumps to a TE that Moore(+1, cov+1) is able to bring down immediately. Good play by the freshman and good playcall (RPS+1) to force this.
Drive Notes: Missed FG(43). 14-6. 7 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O20	1st	10	Gun Wk Y-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Splits	2	Run		Pitch Sweep Option	Colson	8	0.80
Colson(-2) follows the H across the formation with Dax and everyone yells at him wrong spot dude you're on the Flex TE. He's in position at the snap but then lets that TE engulf him 7 yards downfield. Ross(+0.5) gets on his horse to knock this out after 8.
O28	2nd	2	Offset Wk X-Tight H Jet	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	RPO		Jet Sweep/Z check	Hinton	6	0.25
Colson(-1) gets kicked all the way to the sideline, Ojabo fills behind that to collect two dudes. Starting to look bad as M has two guys staying way deep but Hinton(+1) fights through and chops this down for just the 1st down.
O34	1st	10	Gun Str Y-Demi	4-3-4	Nk Splits	2	Pass	4	RB Out	Ross	Inc	-0.99
Tempo(26). M looks like they're not set but it's a feint (RPS+1) which gets PSU blockers not ready instead. Smith(+2, PR+2) swims through a double and gets shoved down by the back (refs-1). RB is open for a dumpoff but drops the pass, which deflects to Ross but he can't bring it in.
O34	2nd	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Splits	2	RPO		ZR/TE Screen	Jeter	3	-0.25
PSU lines up in quads, M has numbers and they check out of it. Bad vision by the RB as M has a gap between Hutchinson and Jeter as they overload the backside and the back cuts into it. Not going to RPS that but Jeter(+1) might have dissuaded it by two-gapping the LG. He makes the tackle.
O37	3rd	7	Gun Twins Z motion	4-2-5	Racecar Splits B	2	Pass	4	Corner	Hill	17	3.03
Bad coverage by Hill(-2, cov-2) who's got help inside but lets Dotson get outside. Nobody got close to the Clifford; Upshaw(+1) shoved the RT off and that guy grabs his arm to stay in contact then wraps around the waist for a little extra impediment, but what else is new (refs-1).
M46	1st	10	Offset 12 Trips	4-3-4	Nk Under	1	Run		Zone Read	Colson	7	0.53
Tempo(27), and Colson(-1) is still jogging to get in the MLB spot while Barrett is trying to shoo him over (RPS-1). Upshaw(+1) forced the LG upfield and might be able to stuff or bend it but he gets grabbed by both shoulder pads and ripped back (refs-1). Barrett(+1, tackling+1) takes a false step but then jets out to the edge and gets across the RT, missing the tackle but allowing his mates to catch up.
M39	2nd	3	Gun Bone Tight	4-3-4	4-3 Even	1	Pass	5	Sack	Barrett	-4	-1.95
Jeter shifts to an under right before the snap then slants across the C. Upshaw(PR+1) gets by the LG but is then shot upfield to initiate a scramble that might work but for Jeter(+1) hopping back to the original side of the C, and Barrett(+2) inside-outside'ing the LT when Clifford tries to bounce. Replay shows Dotson was open under an ultra-careful Gray(-1, cov-1).
M43	3rd	7	Empty 13	4-3-4	Nk Over	1	Pass	4	TE Slant	Hill	??(-10)	-1.77
Hutchinson(+2) times the snap, gets by the RT, and is comically taken down, ref minu....OMIGOD THEY FLAGGED IT HAHAHAHAHA. Hill(+1, cov+1) is all over this slant which is thrown perfectly to a guy falling down who manages to bring it in.
O47	3rd	17	Gun 13 Trips	4-2-5	Nk Split	2	Pass		RB Out	Gray	3	-0.27
Ojabo(+1, PR+1) is around the LT in an instant, ball is also out in an instant under Gray(+2, cov+1, tackling+1) who has a tough job in space vs a bigger player and makes a textbook wrap-up around the waist.
Drive Notes: Punt. 14-6. Eo3Q. I still can't believe they called one.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O47	1st	10	Gun 13 Trips	4-3-4	Nk Over	2	RPO		ZR/TE Screen	Ross	7	0.63
Too many guys on the edge which means Ross(-1) needed to attack the run after the give, but Smith(-1) also needs to fight back into that gap he was in since he's the one who let the T get out to the LB level and Hutchinson is arriving from being read.
M46	2nd	3	Gun Str	4-2-5	Nk Split	1	Run		Counter Trey	Moore	2	-0.68
Hutchinson(-1) sets a soft edge by hiding out behind the LOS. Kickout arrives and doesn't have an angle to turn him but RB has room to get around him even after his lead blocker goes for Ross. RB bounces which is a bad idea as Moore(+1, tackling-1) shoots down and forces the RB upfield behind the marker where Hawkins(+1) finishes. Refs-1 give him back a yard so it's 3rd and 1 instead of 3rd and 2.
M44	3rd	1	Gun Dbl Stacks	4-2-5	Nk Split	1	Run		Dive	Colson	3	0.90
Slant but Colson(-1) is a bit hesitant as one of the guys on Smith releases to lock him out and the RB can hop through.
M41	1st	10	Gun Quads (Y)	4-2-5	Nk Odd	1	RPO		IZ/Bubble	Colson	2	-0.35
Tempo(27). M is crowding the bubble and bring Colson(+1) who slips through the RG's block. Smith(-2) got fair ejected by the LT who can then go downfield and hunt Ross but Hutchinson(+2) discarded a TE and closes this down for little gain as Colson arrives too.
M39	2nd	8	Gun 13 Trips	4-3-4	4-3 Over	2	Play-Action	4	Scramble	NHG	4	-0.25
Seven-man protection means just 3 guys for the (cov+2) rest but only Upshaw(PR-2) is singled and he gets looped around. Clifford knows that's a timer and bails, though Jeter(-1) can't put that much pressure on him. NHG(+1) comes in hot to chase it out.
M35	3rd	4	Empty 13 Trips RB Orbit	4-3-4	Nk Over	2	RPO	NA	RB Flare Screen	Barrett	Inc	-1.03
They pull a guy so there's got to be a QB run option here but Clifford isn't taking it and M has numbers where the three TEs are set up to block (RPS+1). Barrett(+1) and Hill(+1) were going to TFL if he caught it.
M35	4th	4	Gun Trips Bunch	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Pass	4	Snag	Gray	5	2.06
Turner jets across to get the crosser that Ross is rerouting which means Gray(-1, cov-1) should be driving on Dotson. Think M planned on Dotson being that crosser in this setup. Gray is nowhere close and Hawkins(+1) has to come down to contest it.
M30	1st	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Split	1	Run		Split Zone	NHG	5	0.08
Tempo(29). DL is Ojabo-Jeter-Juice-Morris (no Hutchinson). This goes frontside where NHG(+1) attacked the LG aggressively and shed. RB runs into a pile here as Ojabo(-1) is thrown down by the flow guy, meaning Ross has to babysit the edge and can't hop into the pile. C uses the opportunity to move out Welschof(-1) and the pile lurches to Hawkins who puts a stop to this nonsense.
M25	2nd	5	Gun Str Y-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Run	4	QB Draw	Jeter	-1	-0.73
Welschof(+1) stayed in his lane and planted the RG 2 yards in the backfield to force Clifford to bounce, where Jeter(+2) can leap to the other side of the LG and bring this down in the backfield.
M26	3rd	6	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Under	2	Run		Split Zone	Morris	4	-0.10
M has their pass rush set out there for 3rd and 6 in a must-go-on-4th situation and PSU runs right at it (RPS-1) which is Kevin Wilson-level stuff from Frames and I'm mad about the Ferentz Effect where these 1950s coaches suddenly learn how to run a modern four-down offense. That's it that's the tweet. Morris(+0.5) and Hinton(+0.5) combine to tackle but physics gets them 4 yards of falling forward.
M22	4th	2	Empty Quads	4-2-5	Nk Under	1	Pass	4	Slant	Ross	15	1.37
Ross has to choose between a slant to the TE that Moore is behind or a slant across Gray(-2, cov-2) by Jahan Dotson. As Brian said, that's not a minus for Ross since the TE is looked at, but once you're in that position just stay under Dotson and if Theo Johnson beats Rod Moore so be it. Dotson beats Gray so bad that he can get another 10 yards.
M7	1st	Goal	Gun Quads (Y)	4-2-5	Nk Odd	NA	RPO		IZ/Bubble	Ojabo	2	-0.24
Morris(-1) loses to a double because he's not an NT. Ojabo(+1) fights inside of a TE and ends it with a Ross(+0.5) assist. RB is hurt so M can change.
M5	2nd	Goal	Gun Trips Stack	4-3-4	4-3 Under	NA	Play-Action		PA Out	Hill	Inc	-0.32
They want an easy out but RPS+1 the Wolverines know it's a pass. Colson(+0.5) and Hawkins(+0.5) pressure, Hill(+2, cov+2) has completely owned Dotson's route, so they throw it away.
M5	3rd	Goal	Gun Quads (Y)	4-3-4	4-3 Under A	NA	Pass	6	Flash Screen	Turner	3	-0.09
Blitz both safeties and Hawkins gets through but no matter since it's a screen (RPS-1). Turner(+2, cov+1, tackling+1) shoots up and form tackles Dotson to bring up another 4th down. Remember when that guy wasn't replacing on those early this season? Neither do I.
M2	4th	Goal	T-Formation	4-3-4	Goal Line	NA	Play-Action	NA	TE Fade	Turner	2	0.64
Can't minus this but want Turner(push) to go up a little sooner. He's still in position vs their 3rd TE, gets his hand on the ball, and the guy is juggling it to the ground where he finally controls. Tip your hat play.
M3	2PC	Goal	Empty Trips Stack	4-3-4	Goal Line	NA	Pass	NA	Corner Fade	Turner	3	1.05
Again, Turner(+1, cov+1) leaves nothing but a perfect throw low and away. Two great catches, two great throws, that happens.
Drive Notes: Touchdown (2PT). 14-14. 7 min 4th Q. PSU collects Michigan's fumble and takes over the on the M16.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
M16	1st	10	Gun Wk Y-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Split	2	Run		Pitch Sweep Option	Ojabo	3	-0.11
This time Clifford keeps as Ojabo steps towards the pitch man. Colson(+1) did too but athletically stops and backtracks. Ross(+1) and those two converge as Clifford, who had been irritable and in the medical tent for a head thing a moment earlier, thinks about sliding and turns his back instead. Get him out of there!
M13	2nd	7	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Split	2	Play-Action	4	Jump ball	Hutchinson	Inc	-0.34
Hutchinson(+1, PR+2) waits for the puller then shoots up and not too far. Ojabo(+1, refs-1) is getting held after coming inside the LT and Smith(+1) has swum past the LG so this is about to be sack city and Clifford chucks it away. Cov+2 nobody bit on the PA and everyone was covered. Replay shows Turner(+1) had Dotson covered all the way.
M13	3rd	7	Gun Bone Tight	4-2-5	Nk Split AB	1	Pass	5	Throwaway	Gray	Inc	-3.99
Perfect blitz as they drop Morris and Upshaw and bring the ILBs, DEs, and Hawkins, whom the RB misses. Clifford chucks it out of the endzone to survive. RPS+2. Replay.
Drive Notes: FG(31). 14-17. 6 min 4th Q. Let's go win it!
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Gun Wk Y-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Split	2	Pass	4	Fly	Gray	Inc	-0.70
Hutchinson(+0.5) doubled and Ojabo(+1, PR+1) is about toput the LT into Clifford so this has to go. It's a fly that's thrown well enough for the WR to lay out with half a step on Gray(-1, cov-1). He can't bring it in. Both sides groan—PSU because their WRs after Dotson/Washington are not Gattis-recruited quality, and Michigan because we have to play Ohio State this year.
O25	2nd	10	Empty Quads	4-2-5	Racecar Odd	2	Pass	4	Snag	Hill	8	0.48
Both Ts' hands go right to the shoulder pads of Ojabo/Hutchinson—if they're not flagging it they're not but PR-2 is frustrating (refs-1) nonetheless. Hill(push, cov-1) is caught between this guy and the RB release, plays it fine (RPS-1), ball is low and caught on his knees so it's 3rd down.
O33	3rd	2	Empty Quads	4-2-5	Racecar Odd	1	Pass	4	Slant	Turner	Inc	-0.60
Tempo(25). Turner(+2, cov+2) breaks it up from behind before Moore(+1) lays a lick that gets him the credit. Dotson is hurt, out for the 4th down. So is Moore.
O33	4th	2	Gun Trips	4-2-5	Racecar Goal	0	Pass	5	Mesh	Gray	Inc	-4.31
Nailed it and yes Brian this gets an RPS+3 we're in "I'm ending the game right here" territory. Both "DTs" Morris and Upshaw drop into the crossing lanes for Mesh and nobody picks up a blitz from Moten. Clifford can only chuck and pray at a receiver Gray(+1, cov+1) had leverage on and who doesn't even look back for it. Game over.
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs. 21-17. 3 min 4th Q. EoG for defense.

Why are you smirking? That was super close to being a loss to a four-loss unranked team.

They were a three-loss ranked team Michigan played on the road in a packed, raucous stadium, and they got back the quarterback whose breaking caused the other losses. Then we broke him again.

Doesn’t matter. Once Michigan defeats an opponent, it’s no longer a big game. That’s how this all works.

You can’t just have these games be rote blowouts. That’s how you get the Fast & Furious franchise and Ohio State. Football needs drama. Football needs characters. You have to feel something other than your own body parts. And Michigan was so much better than Penn State on this side of the ball that you needed a lot of things to go the antagonist’s way to drive the story.

I think you’re talking about movies. I just want to be able to believe my football team won’t get scored on lots.

Too bad we’re in a movie, because it requires a major suspension of disbelief when Penn State is pulling out every deus ex machina to stay in it, skewing the perception away from another solid defensive performance. PSU recovered all three of their sack-strip fumbles (and one of ours), when on average that should be worth two turnovers and about 8-10 expected in the final margin. The offense will probably tell a different story, but a lot of the difference between what your racing heart says you just went through and Bill Connelly’s 93% win expectancy in the advanced stats was earned right there. That doesn’t even count three batted passes that hung in the air a long time or went off defenders’ hands.

The first drive alone had three sacks, a converted 3rd and 17 when the DE is ripping the QB’s shirt, a converted fake punt on 4th and 6 when Michigan had their fake punt coverage called, and a 2nd & 19 scramble on a ludicrous spin-the-guy-around uncalled hold. Plays not on dumb stuff were two well-covered incompletions at DJ Turner, WR screens that averaged 2 YPA, and a QB draw where Dax Hill and Josh Ross were both covering the RB for some reason. This drive also featured as many passes at Rasheed Walker (1) as Jahan Dotson (1). Walker is the left tackle.

Clifford vociferously arguing he had an eligible receiver on this play. pic.twitter.com/QrqffmLWZr

— Seth M. Fisher (@Misopogon) November 14, 2021

Even the field goal was wonky, curving outside to the point where Rod Moore started making the no-good signal before the thing switched directions mid-air. That high-drama, 14-play Iliad also ate up one twelfth of the game, and left Penn State up 3-0. It also left starters gasping for air, and one three-and-out later their backups gave up another 14-play odyssey that got to the Michigan 2 before Frames killed it with a fake field goal.

When they couldn’t string together enough bullshit in a row, PSU drives made it 2 to 30 yards until the 16-play, 53-yard Aeneid to tie it in the 4th quarter. There again was the wheel of fate: One in four plays on that drive were fourth downs or a two-point conversion, three of which were converted despite being well-defended. They finally died meeting an RPS+3 (yes, Brian: +3) playcall on 4th and 2, but PSU was living on plot armor the whole way.

Somebody should have worn some armor.

Right, so not all of Michigan’s seven(!!!!) sacks in this game were necessarily Michigan’s agency. There’s bad coaching, then there’s coaching that’s so bad that you wonder how the players haven’t already revolted, then like 8,000 feet of sand and clay and iron and rock, then cats, a layer of direct-to-TV videocassette sequels to popular kids movies, zebra mussels, the musical Cats, Greg Robinson, an allergenic cough that your daughter develops during a global respiratory disease pandemic, giving the Superman franchise to a director whose whole thing is believing in Lex Luthor’s favorite philosophy, the Andrew Johnson administration, Penn State’s OL coaching, and the film version of the musical Cats.

Much like Penn State’s blocking on this play, Cats the movie took material that already makes no sense and, like Rasheed Walker’s down-blocking, removed that material from the only context—the entertainment value of live actors totally committed to acting like cats—in which it had any value. The result is worse than bad. You can remove bad from your head. This was grotesque.

And yet it was merely the second-most baffling thing PSU’s OL tried on their opening (their opening!) drive, the end of London Bridges being the first.

That led to this screenshot I cannot share enough.

Alex short-circuited any hope that we’ll be able to fully appreciate Hutchinson and Ojabo by pointing out Mungojerrie and Rumpleteazer at the two tackle positions have been categorical disasters all season. Even with the RB and TE chipping, Penn State could not keep Clifford vertical long enough for any semblance of a long passing game. When they tried, he got his ball taken away and had to earn it back.

Clifford took it and kept making plays, but his accuracy was coming and going by the 4th quarter. Before the Hawkins hit he was uncharacteristically turning his back to tacklers to shield his ribs from more pain. After it the camera caught him struggling before he got up and went to the tent. He was on the bike a few minutes later, and on the field again for their final drive. Michigan drew up a play to kill exactly the thing that Penn State was running on 4th and 2, and whereas previous iterations of Clifford might still find ways to convert there, this one heaved a prayer well out of bounds at a guy not even looking for it. Like Christian Hackenberg, Tommy Stevens, and Anthony Morelli before him, years of standing behind Penn State blocking finally broke the third-year starter.

Tell me about the RPS+3 thing they did on 4th and 2.

Oh it was a thing of beauty. The guys to watch here are #91 (Upshaw) who’s just inside the left tackle, and #90 (Morris) next to him/between the LG and C. They’re technically on the field as DTs on this play, but they drop directly into the lanes of PSU’s mesh routes. They don’t even get to mesh.

Also they removed two guys the protection, set left no doubt because that’s where Hutchinson and two linemen are aligned, had accounted for, and created one they didn’t in RJ Moten.

A similar blitz helped ensure Penn State would be held to a field goal when they recovered Michigan’s only fumble on the Wolverines’ 16.

Same play, different side, and same result: a safety flying into the quarterback before someone can block him. And of course Hutchinson and Ojabo and friends wrecked as well. If we’re handing out credit for Clifford Destruction Day, I’d give Michigan’s players 60% of that, Macdonald’s blitzes 10%, and the rest on Penn State’s OL taking blocking cues from Andrew Lloyd Weber.

Weren’t we also super lucky that Frames did Frames things?

Oh, Franklin had his moments, like the fake field goal, the fake field goal, the f—can you hang on a minute?

[seth has walked away from the podium]

…

(is that crying or hysterical laughter back there?)

…

[seth has returned to the podium]

Like the fake field goal. Their other field goal attempt drives went 28, 35, and 3 yards

What did we do about Jahan Dotson? I thought he was supposed to DeVier Posey us?

If Clifford was the heavy of our story, Dotson was his unpossible henchman, the fiercely loyal All-American freak feared by every man, child, and Spartan in the national secondary. And true to form for this adventure story, the answer to Dotson turned out to be an unlikely hero.

DJ Turner II has arrived. With Gemon Green out, Turner played every snap of this game, introducing himself as the latest CB1 by defeating another of Clifford’s chief sidekicks in the opening action sequence.

I’ll say that subverted some expectations. So did besting the dragon in their first scene together. Even if Dotson comes down with this, he’s in the sideline.

This was not a one-off. Penn State often signed Dotson up on one side and put all the rest of their eligible receivers to the other side to run screens. This gave Dotson plenty of room to shake his cornerback. He just could not do so.

Even with the ball in space, where Dotson has been a nightmare this year, every time Jahan opened his eyes Turner would appear.

The shutdown montage however gave way in the third act, when Dotson and friends took their games to a new level. This was the touchdown scored on him to make it 14-12:

You could want him to go up a little earlier since he’s battling a tight end I guess, but I call that a heroic effort. So too was the 2-point conversion that followed:

Turner is fronting this, and leaving just a tiny window at the receiver’s knees where this could possibly be caught. That’s a DO and a “1” in the charting, which means the defense has done its job, while the offense has unleashed its master stroke.

But we all know how these movies tend. Dotson survived until the penultimate scene, a third down and two slant against man coverage. And here we have a bit of a twist ending, with Rod Moore screaming down for a hard hit the announcers and live watchers all believe responsible for dislodging the ball, and removing Dotson from the game. But those who looked closely at the last play noticed the ball was out before Moore even got there:

And the man responsible gave a wink, and slipped back into obscurity. Roll credits.

You could have answered “We put DJ Turner on him.”

Not quite. It was Penn State choosing to isolate Dotson, and Turner was money for the most part in those circumstances, but they moved him around plenty, especially in the slot, and when that happened Michigan bent the defense his way, either playing an LB underneath him or a safety on top

The first of Dotson’s fourth down conversions was a failure of these mitigation strategies. Josh Ross was the lone underneath help and had to make a choice between the tight end slanting with Rod Moore on his back to one side, and Dotson trailing Gray on the other. Clifford looked at the TE (the guy on the line of scrimmage on the bottom) so that’s where Ross went. I would have preferred he left that guy to Moore and stayed under Dotson (top of the screen).

#12 the lone linebacker

Another fail point, ironically, was Dax Hill, who was pressing too hard to make a play instead of maintaining leverage and trusting his teammates.

For most of the game, and all of the first half, Michigan was keeping two safeties deep, or else one safety deep to the side with Dotson on it, content to live with the consequences.

Those consequences were linebackers being pulled in every which direction, as Penn State whiplashed them between screens on one side, runs to the other, deep passes, flat passes, and dump-offs. What Michigan gained in preventing Dotson from getting deep, they bled away in linebacker hell while asking a never-more-than-four-man defensive line to keep the running game contained. As a result the charting came out with high-amplitude events for the LBs, most of those negative, against boringly positive events for the safeties.

All right, Mr. DeMille. I’m ready for my chart-up.

Chart.

Defensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Snaps	Notes
Hinton	5.5	2	+3.5	52	Fine, not grand.
Smith	11	4	+7	45	On FFFF star watch now.
Jeter	7.5	1	+6.5	24	Acid test for how well-coached your OL is. PSUs...
Welschof	2	2	0	22	Still a passing downs specialist, or ought to be.
Jenkins			0	2	DNC
Whittley			0	0	DNP
Speight			0	0	DNP
Hutchinson	22	5	+17	80	Had PSU's snaps timed.
Ojabo	14.5	4	+10.5	60	Blatant holding every play means you've arrived, son.
Morris	1.5	1.5	0	27	Equal time at DE/DT/Racecar DT. Still very tweener.
Upshaw	4	4	0	36	Very different from the starters.
McGregor			0	0	DNP
Newburg			0	0	DNP
TOTAL	68	23.5	+44.5	-	Caveat: Penn State's OL is a disaster zone.
Linebacker
Player	+	-	T	Snaps	Notes
Ross	8	10.5	-2.5	86	PSU's gameplan was linebacker hell.
Colson	6	12	-6	68	...and the kid was put through it.
Barrett	5	0	+5	20	The 4-3 backer was back, Viper'd good.
Hill-Green	3	0	+3	18	The heady one, got more PT later in the game.
Mullings			0	0	DNP
Harrell			0	0	DNP
TOTAL	21	22.5	-0.5	-	Linebacker hell.
Secondary
Player	+	-	T	Snaps	Notes
Hill	9.5	6	+3.5	86	Played role of held Hutch/Ojabo on the screens.
Hawkins	3.5	2	+1.5	86	Bomb at the end of the half, otherwise boring.
Moore	4	2	+2	63	Started, no big mistakes. Looks like they found one.
Moten			0	1	DNC, but got the final lick.
Kolesar			0	0	DNP
Paige			0	0	DNP
Turner	11	0.5	+10.5	86	Jahan Dotson's statline was mostly his doing. Star watch.
Gray	6	7.5	-1.5	86	Dichotomy between covering Dotson vs anyone else.
Gem.Green			0	0	DNP
McBurrows			0	0	DNP
TOTAL	34	18	+16	-	First major exam passed. Now for the term papers.
Metrics
Pressure	19	10	+9	-	Some, not nearly enough generated by the DTs.
Coverage	32	23	+9	-	Linebackers were in hell, secondary did well.
Tackling	4	6	-2	-	PSU's screeners kept dropping before they could be dropped.
RPS	19	18	+1	-	Subjected LBs to hell, also dialed up some diabolical stops.

Josh Ross’s score does not look like that of a senior captain.

Linebacking is very hard, and the main thing that Franklin’s (and by extension, his former pupil Josh Gattis) offense likes to do is mess with linebackers by giving them a play they can only stop if they sell out for, then hitting them with something that punishes the sell-out. Ross has a very tough job in this defense. He also blew it a few times but not as badly as I think people believed watching the tape. Like this blitz where he’s not looking at the QB:

That blitz is one half of a stunt that freed Morris, and it worked except the tackle fixed it with a two-hand yank-down on Morris’s shoulder pad, at which point the RB abandoned Ross to deal with that and Ross ought to have figured out where he was and reengaged sooner. It wasn’t, as the fan brain processed, a blitz where he ran off into the ether.

Another play that I saw blamed on Ross was the 44-yard pass at the end of the first half to set up a field goal. Thanks to Cody Alexander of MatchQuarters.com (and by extension Mark Dantonio who caused me to get to know it), we’ve got a pretty good idea of how you’re supposed to handle this in Quarters, if that, as it appears, is what Michigan’s running on this 2nd and 17.

There are different Quarters responses to that but most of them involve the safety on the opposite side looking up a #3 receiver to the field if he doesn’t have a #2 receiver going vertical. That would be Hawkins (the safety on the top), who’s got nothing else to do but double a far less frightening receiver down the sideline.

It’s possible that they were running a split coverage here and Ross was supposed to drop into a Tampa 2 zone, which would put him under that route for long enough to get Ojabo home, but that still demands a safety over the top, and Moore is clearly committed to staying on top of The Dragon.

The proceeding, on the other hand, was more Ross’s fault, though again it really shows how hard his job was in this game.

#12 the middle linebacker

He’s the guy who has to flag down the QB run, and if this QB was at 100% as a runner this would be a dangerously effective play indeed, since Ross is also supposed to be carrying that seam as long as the QB is in the backfield. He leaves a moment too soon and is lucky the pass goes awry (thanks to Jeter). Penn State is also lucky they weren’t booted out of FG range for tackling both DEs.

Ross wasn’t just being stretched vertically. Playing safeties high also meant he had to get to all the myriad screens PSU ran out of trips and quads looks. He has some help because one of these TEs isn’t an eligible receiver, but Ross still has to get out there to even out the numbers versus Dotson. He only makes it because Dotson bobbled the pass (and only needed to because Dax was getting very very held), but this is still a +2 play.

Colson had a much rougher go of it. He was constantly misaligned on tempo, hesitant to attack gaps, and caught on the wrong side of blocks. The way Michigan had the WLBs covering multiple gaps to double the edges is sustainable if they have the DT play to keep those LBs clean and if the LBs themselves are decisive when it’s time to pick a gap. It’s also a hard job without safeties to spill to, so I’m not going to take Colson’s low score too seriously. Hill-Green probably would have been a better option in this game, even if he still makes some of the same mistakes, but I also get why you don’t want to take Colson’s athleticism off the field when you’re getting stretched out by five-wide so often.

And there were still some senior moments when Ross figured out how Penn State was trying to mess with him and messed right back, with no better example than this dumpoff to the tight end inside yet another screen look. After the above you would think Ross would be primed to jet outside the moment the QB turned that way. Ross didn’t take the bait, kept his eyes on his tight end, and dropped the guy.

You may have also noticed that PSU was trying to use personnel to outsize the linebackers, putting three tight ends on the field then spreading them wide or putting them in quads. Michigan matched that with a five-man line twice but mostly stuck it out in their 4-3/Michael Barrett package. He wasn’t an every down player—maybe a quarter of downs. But he was a much better answer to one of the “OLBs” (or Jaylen Harrell) to deal with an offense with a bunch of receiving tight ends they could spread out 5-wide or condense into front of many gaps.

If there was any concern that Barrett wouldn’t have the oomph required to do the DE things that a Macdonald defense requires of its outside linebackers, we needn’t have worried, leastways not against these guys.

#23 Michael Barrett, OLB on the bottom inside the CB

I much prefer Barrett at this role than the WLB they were trying to shoehorn him into. There’s a reason every team has a hybrid linebacker these days, and Barrett’s experienced in that role. In the future Michigan hopes to have a bunch of DE types who can move like linebackers, since there’s not need—as there was in Brown’s defense—to have this guy also play safety. Right now Harrell is really the only guy on the roster like that, and Barrett gives you more.

Speaking of the “OLBs”…

So the running back who looked at Junior Colson blitzing free and decided he was better off doubling Aidan Hutchinson had a point:

Hutchinson made it to the quarterback at the same time as Colson, meaning the RB probably bought Clifford time by letting a super-fast linebacker come through unblocked. Decisions made in times of Hutchinson are not like normal decisions, and I commend that back on his wise, if futile, move.

We already showed the strip-sack when PSU tried to have a long-developing passing play on 3rd and 11. What I don’t think I’ve seen from him before is timing the snap. Hutchinson picked up with clap was going to be a snap (often the first since they were going tempo so much) and yet never got an offsides for this.

Cut-blocking didn’t work. The point where that play that led to this screengrab…

…started to go wrong because Hutchinson dodged a (half-assed) cut attempt and rushed upfield. He didn’t get the sack there, but by the time he was no longer on the quarterback’s face there were three more Wolverine defenders behind the offensive line, and Clifford was convinced his left tackle was an eligible receiver.

Second time they tried a cutblock he avoided that too, tried to swat a screen, then forced Jahan Dotson to backtrack across the formation, where trying to edge Dax Hill seemed, at least for the moment, the wiser plan.

Penn State had two plans that managed to slow down Hutchinson. One was to throw him as high as possible and get the ball the hell out of the backfield before he recovered. The other was to grab on and hope to get a Michigan State-level home whistle. Of 19 flagrant opportunities, the officials called one…

…because Hutchinson fell down. So that’s going to be the standard.

Whit's fur ye'll no go past ye.

I see we’ve come to the Scot.

A'm waantin' tae ken if mah laddie git th' identical treatment.

He did. While Hutchinson drew most of the doubles, when things got serious they were chipping both of them, and when the refs proved completely unserious they were tackling Ojabo as much as the guy who’s #1 on the DE draft charts. But where the grabbing mostly slowed Hutchinson, with Ojabo it was more a question of could they get their hands on him at all. What can you possibly do about this even if you want to cheat?

That's a' ye'v git fur me? we've git mibbie juist three mair weeks o' this guy.

Ojabo wasn’t on the field as much as Hutchinson, however, as Taylor Upshaw got more run in this game than ever before. That might have been on account of the Viper stuff—technically Barrett was in at Ojabo’s position while Upshaw replaced Rod Moore. The tradeoff didn’t seem worth it however. Upshaw isn’t on the same level as the other guys, at least not yet. He’s also, like Morris, a dude that Don Brown recruited to play anchor, and Upshaw got some run with Morris in the racecar package again. When you judge Upshaw as a DT his pass rush jumps from a “D” to a “B” relative to the position. He was the guy who was grabbing Clifford’s jersey when he uncorked the 3rd and 17 pass to Washington on the first drive.

And Upshaw featured again at the end as the guy dropping and tagging the crossing routes. Those events didn’t earn points, but I have started to notice that Upshaw’s negative grades tend to be “Isn’t doing the Ojabo thing” and even those are pretty rare. He’s a guy, with a long way to go to replace either of the Dudes on his depth chart.

Should I be really happy that the DTs are grading out positively or sad that they only generated a little bit of pass rush against another bad OL?

The rotation shortened this game so I think we at least have a clearer picture of who they are and can be. Let’s start with the one who’s now on the brink of stardom. When a DT does break through on the interior (or beats a block and gets taken down with no call), it’s usually Smith.

#58 the middle guy on the line:

That one led to an errant pass off the WR’s hands and into Ross’s. Smith’s already well exceeded expectations for how long he can last out there, but that’s still about 65% of a game. I think next year he’s going to get some NFL buzz.

I’ve resigned myself to Hinton being merely a good DT, but every so often Hinton does a thing that brings back the five-star hype thoughts. PSU’s left guard is not any good, but look how quickly Hinton got upfield after whooping this guy:

I also noticed Hinton and Smith have started doing the old Martin-RVB thing stunt.

I don’t know if they call that themselves when they see something, or if that’s part of the play. I would assume the latter except one time Ross didn’t seem at all prepared for the gap exchange this would cause. It blew the above play up. Whether they can repeat this against Maryland should be a big deal, since Tagovailoa is very much a “hits them when he’s set, doesn’t when he can’t” kind of QB, and it’s a road game.

Donovan Jeter’s grades I still can’t trust, because Penn State’s style is a lot like Michigan States: they don’t get low and move their feet so much as grab your shoulder pads and direct. As it was against MSU, Jeter’s length was able to keep the OL detached while his strength led to some big stops.

He doesn’t bring much to the pass rush but beating bad blocking is a highly useful college skill. He’s strung a few good games together lately.

We also got to see more Julius Welschof this week as he solidified a rotation spot over Jenkins (who appears locked in as the extra DT for the moment.) Juice still got pushed around by doubles, and still made up for it by slipping through blocks. He did the rolloff thing again, and overpowered this RG to prevent Clifford from stepping into the throw that was open downfield.

Why was Moore in over Moten?

That’s more of a presser question than something the film can tell, but it teemed to be a straight-up position battle win by the true freshman—Moten did come in at the end so he appears to be healthy. This wasn’t a game to grade safeties for much more than coming down and sticking guys when they leaked through, but Moore got a few opportunities to cover tight ends and made the most of them.

Are we still the worst tempo team in the country?

Not against PSU. They certainly tried it—I’ve never seen a Franklin team get to the line so fast or snap so many plays with 30+ seconds on the clock. Penn State averaged 3.85 yards and –0.22 expected points added per play when they went tempo, versus 3.65 yards and –0.18 EPA/play when they did not. They did mess with the linebackers, especially Colson, but Michigan was so well prepared for it that I ended up clipping half of those tempo plays. Things that occurred on tempo plays:

• Hinton/Smith doing the Mike Martin/Ryan Van Bergen stunt.
• Ross blitzing into a stunt to free Morris and not looking.
• An attempt to edge Dax Hill that did not go well for them.
• Hutchinson’s strip sack.
• The play where the RB doubled Hutch instead of picking up a blitzing Colson.
• The Ross near-INT when Smith shot upfield.
• Dotson’s final (broken up) slant.
• Four plays with Hutchinson on the bench.
• This play:

You’ll note a lot of those were stunts, blitzes, or instances where the defensive linemen got off good jumps and created pressure. Michigan didn’t just have a bunch of weird looks planned for Penn State; they had weird looks they could get called and into when Penn State tried to run tempo.

One thing the tempo took away from Penn State was the one part of their gameplan that I thought was really good: giving Clifford an opportunity to snuff out whether the coverage was man or zone. They’d often have a receiver or tight end travel across the formation, and the announcers even pointed out one time that this was giving a zone/man key because often Dax Hill would travel with the WR, or the linebackers would shift around, or the safeties would betray their roll. Michigan broke tendency on this after halftime.

[Hot take voice] MICHIGAN SHOULD GIVE BIG TEN REFEREES THE BO STATUE AS A PEACE OFFERING

Damn, I shoulda used that one on the podcast. First I should point out a lot of stuff that Michigan fans find objectionable is not holding. When you see this:

…that is not holding unless that hand is actually closed on the pad and yanking. You’re allowed to have your hands across a guy, but fans see this and mistake it for a hold all the time. Note the RT’s shoulder is inside of Hutchinson’s. Not a hold.

There’s also this:

…which is holding but will never get called so I don’t mark it. Ditto the way PSU and MSU linemen are coached to have their arms outside the shoulder pads—that’s just how it’s called in the Big Ten, so we don’t gripe about it.

When we’re talking about something I flag for “refs” I mean like this (watch both DEs).

There were those aplenty after Clifford was marked “Not Safe” after the first drive, as happens when you have two lethal sack artists, and the opponent has two hapless tackles on the end of a standard James Franklin 4-star development track. Stealing a sack from Taylor Upshaw though—that’s cruel. I can’t get over that official just standing there, consciously not calling that for that long. That should have knocked PSU out of FG range.

The two missed false starts were annoying because Michigan got hit with the exact same two calls and long downs meant so much in this game—think of all the 4th and shorts they had! But for the most part I hold Penn State more to blame than Cannon’s crew. This has traditionally been one of the better crews in the conference, but they are also the most lenient, which is a bad mix when you’ve got one team with a major pass-rushing advantage. and the other team teaches their players to grab everything in sight, flail about when you fall, and dare the stripes to insert themselves. It worked for them this game. I don’t think they want any recruits or their coaches to look too closely at the tape, however.

 

Did they try to edge Daxton Hill this week?

Oh most definitely. They had a whole “we are running a WR screen here!” package with four guys to one side.

And how did it work out for them?

The thing about that package is it wasn’t edging Dax Hill, really—the extra spread was more like edging Aidan Hutchinson, who for all his greatness isn’t really a nickel safety. Dax Hill did set an edge, but the pursuit wasn’t on time.

These mostly went nowhere because their backs kept dropping them, which was a shame because Hill was usually in position to blow it up or create an opportunity to blow it up for one of his buddies. Ross ended up getting this one down after Dotson bobbled it, but it should have been a 10-yard loss because Hill put the TE where Dotson was supposed to run, and did everything he could to make sure the outside of that block wasn’t going to be open.

There was also one time Dotson didn’t like the look of the screen play they’d set up for him on the side opposite Dax Hill, then went all the way around the formation in hopes of edging Dax Hill.

And how did that work out for him?

 

Heroes?

DJ Turner II. Hutchinson and Ojabo. Mazi Smith. Mike Macdonald. Donovan Jeter, Michael Barrett and Nikhai Hill-Green in smaller samples.

Maybe not so heroic?

Junior Colson. Vincent Gray in the context of two games from now.

What does it mean for Maryland and The Game?

Get used to hating how holding isn’t called in the Big Ten. Next game is a Big Ten road game against a team that likes to pass, and Michigan now has two pass-rushers in the Gary/Winovich range. The next game…well I wouldn’t expect that one to be fair.

Bring your bad offensive lines; they’re our meat. This deep into the season we are still uttering competition caveats because we know what’s just over the horizon, but it was another good day against another bad OL. They have guys, and at least one is closing in on Dude.

Linebacker: Still very hard. I guess they’re getting Junior Colson bled as much as possible right now because he’s going to have to face all of this down the road, and his upside is much higher than any other candidate’s. They also don’t seem that comfortable taking Ross off the field when Colson’s on it. I’d have given Hill-Green some more opportunities, bad IU game notwithstanding, but the next two opponents are very speedy spreads so Colson’s going to be called into duty again.

Michael Barrett is part of the defense now. I was wrong that it was a one-off, but that’s because I didn’t anticipate Penn State spending so much time with three tight ends on the field. On the other hand I would rather have his speed on the field and live with a little less weight than the OLB options they’ve gone with.

The Dawn of Rod Moore. Going to need more data, and it may have been a decision more about getting his speed on the field than a true position battle with Moten. Doubtful though. True freshman just started on the road vs a rival with an All-American WR and didn’t suck. Think they’ve got a guy.

DJ Turner II is now a Known Friend and Trusted Agent. I have a strict “wait a week after a breakout performance” rule with FFFF stars because of some historical silliness, but if Maryland does so much as stay away from him we’ve got a star CB again. Now just gotta find two more in the next two weeks and we’re good right?

86 snaps is many. I did defense first because it looked so daunting.

That’s an RPS+3. Macdonald called Franklin’s last two game-leverage plays, graded in the positive despite spotting PSU a man under the safeties all game for Dotson mitigation purposes. Had nasty stuff planned and executed for tempo. So much for growing pains.

Moment of Zen: