Unverified Voracity Goes For It
RIP. Sad week for the Michigan family, as Mister Simpson and Ryan Mallett both died far too young. Mallett drowned off the Gulf Coast—apparently one of 11 people to lose their lives to rip currents in the past two weeks. Simpson's death is under investigation by the Cincinnati police department. Keep their families in your thoughts.
Toe meets leather. Warde Manuel asserts that the changed Big Ten format will not affect The Game:
“The Game will remain at noon in the regular season when we play,” Manuel said on “In the Trenches,” a podcast produced by Michigan Athletics. “We’ve had great fan enjoyment of that game, and being at noon. Great television response in terms of numbers of people who who watch that game. I think there’s no need to move it to any other time. It’s really been become a part of that series and people sort of set their calendar, set their clock to watch that game at noon on the Saturday after Thanksgiving.”
This of course sets up the unappetizing possibility of an immediate rematch for the Big Ten championship, but aside from some wacky bloggers making wacky, impossible suggestions—Seth and I are specialists in this department—I'm not sure what the alternative is.
Also note the assumption that the Game will be at noon, which is technically not guaranteed—Fox could choose another Big Ten game for their #1 overall pick—but is about as certain as anything in this crazy mixed-up world.
Math wins. There used to be a cottage industry around here: fourth-down clucking. We still mention it from time to time, but the section on the podcast that used to mention unforgivable Brady Hoke decisions has mostly been reduced to things like "ehhh… that's really close." That's because college football has gotten a lot more aggressive on fourth down. Bill Connelly provides a graph:
Since there are occasional correct punt decisions even in the top two categories college coaches are probably approaching optimal. I also enjoy the big spike in 2020, as the college football collective decided that nothing mattered lol. Then they were like "oh… that worked" and kept going for it.
Michigan was not on the leading edge—you probably know this—but chose its spots superbly:
Meanwhile, Michigan went for it just 21% of the time (87th) but picked its spots well and profited by 5.3 points per game (ninth). Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines converted 17 of 21 attempts (81%, second in FBS) and scored 81 points after those 17 conversions. Opponents scored only seven points after the four failures.
No decision was more important, bold, and correct than Michigan going for it on fourth and one in their own territory early in the third quarter against OSU. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes:
OSU's power success rate last year: 117th.https://t.co/yCiOphiKq4
— mgoblog (@mgoblog) June 22, 2023
I imagine this is high on the list of offseason priorities in Columbus. It'll be interesting to see how that number changes this year. If it stays stubbornly low it could be a sign that Ryan Day's just a finesse kind of guy.
[After THE JUMP: yeahhhh we're just going to ignore you thanks]
The rerank. The Athletic's Max Olson re-ranks the 2019 recruiting classes. 2019 was the Dax Hill-Chris Hinton-Charbonnet-Mazi Smith class, and Michigan slides well up from their original ranking of 8th:
3. Michigan
Adjusted average: 2.85
Class rank in 2019: 8th
Four-year record: 36-11
Attrition: 44%
Top signees: DB Daxton Hill, DL Mazi Smith, LB David Ojabo, DB DJ Turner, DL Mike MorrisJim Harbaugh and his coaches found 13 starters and eight All-Big Ten players in this class, hitting on a remarkable number of NFL-caliber defenders who helped lead the run to back-to-back Big Ten championships and College Football Playoff appearances. Smith joined Hill in becoming a first-round draft pick this spring, while Ojabo and Turner were both second-round selections. Morris and defensive lineman Mike Danna also got drafted, and D-lineman Christopher Hinton is playing in the league as well.
The Wolverines’ offensive haul in 2019 included quarterback Cade McNamara, offensive linemen Trevor Keegan and Karsen Barnhart, wide receiver Cornelius Johnson and running back Zach Charbonnet, who became the best back in the Pac-12 after transferring to UCLA.
Michigan's attrition rate is fairly standard, FWIW. Alabama had a whopping 61% attrition rate and still slid in just behind Michigan at #4. Must be nice.
FWIW, that was the class where Michigan missed on the top three kids in state, causing much panic on the Michigan internet and rejoicing in East Lansing. Not so fast, my friend: The in-state top three of Logan Brown (UW), Devontae Dobbs, and Julian Barnett (both MSU) all failed to make an impact. Mazi Smith, #4, just got drafted in the first round.
Just find one corner. Michigan's other CB slots are in excellent hands:
Highest graded returning Big Ten Cornerbacks pic.twitter.com/vwaC2C3C70
— PFF College (@PFF_College) June 23, 2023
I don't see any OSU players on that list.
Let them enforce it. The NCAA's trying to keep the lid on NIL business, for all the good that will do:
These new rules will force schools in states like Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas to choose between maximizing what their state laws permit and what the NCAA allows.
— Dan Murphy (@DanMurphyESPN) June 27, 2023
Texas A&M's AD has directly stated they're ignoring this: "The state law is going to govern how we do business." In this new era of anything goes that's not a huge surprise; what is the NCAA going to do about it? As mentioned repeatedly around here, scholarship limits are more or less fictional. They really do not want to issue postseason bans. Does anyone care about vacated wins? No. Is a federal court going to side with the NCAA? Not likely.
This is all futile posturing by people with jobs that are rapidly becoming obsolescent.
FWIW, a bill that somewhat liberalizes Michigan's NIL law has been introduced in the state legislature. MLive's summary:
It seeks to expand Michigan’s existing NIL law for college athletes to allow colleges to partner with third-party licensees and help athletes better utilize NIL opportunities.
“The NIL legislation that we are seeking promotes fairness and equity among student-athletes,” sponsoring Rep. Angela Witwer, D-Delta Township, told the higher ed committee.
HB 4319 would also encourage colleges to offer financial literacy, brand management and life skills programming for athletes.
That's not at the level of the more aggressive state legislatures but seems like a good change.
Obligatory Berhalter take. I endorsed his return after the World Cup and nothing in the intervening six months did much to change my opinion. ESPN's Ryan O'Hanlon has a briefer version:
At the 2022 World Cup, there was a team that didn't allow a single goal from open play in the group stages. They drew with -- and outshot -- England. And they didn't lose a game in the opening round: one win and two draws.
Sure, they lost in the round of 16, but it came against the Netherlands -- a traditional world power -- and this team had almost 60% of the possession in that match, also outshooting the Dutch 17 to 11. A couple of bounces go differently, and this team is playing Lionel Messi and Argentina in the quarterfinals.
Now, this team didn't even qualify for the previous World Cup. And at the World Cup before that, this team went out in a match against Belgium that was so lopsided that the literal president of this team's country called this team's goalkeeper to congratulate him on all of the saves he'd made.
At every previous World Cup this team had qualified for, they'd rolled out the traditional international-underdog playbook: defend well, wait for set pieces and counterattacks. Supporters, who had been both pining for more modern tactics and to see their team perform at the World Cup, got it all in Qatar: this team played in a new way, and this team got results.
So, when this team announced that it was rehiring the same manager that guided this team at the World Cup, everyone rejoiced ... right? You simple, silly person. This is the United States men's national team: we don't rejoice here, buddy!
The #BerhalterOUT crew on twitter—which some wag just dubbed the QSMNT—is losing their minds, but given the realistic prospects out there I'm more or less content to continue with a coach who had the US playing on the front foot with a very young team who seems to be thrilled to have him back.
TBH unless you get an extreme outlier like Klinsmann, an international manager is not really going to move the needle much. As long as Berhalter is able to smooth things over with Reyna, which is likely, there's no reason to not continue to build on what was an encouraging cycle.
Etc.: Talking with Adam Fantilli just before this year's NHL draft. Men's tennis coach bounces for Florida. Manuel talking about NIL. Fantilli endorses Gavin Brindley. Alan Bowman's going to start for Okie State.
i know i'm being super-dense here, and maybe trying to reduced my caffeine intake is hurting more than helping, but i don't get "QSMNT."
I am about 98% sure that it is a riff on Q-Anon.
This is the only thing I can think of that makes sense.
oh, right. almost certainly!
Yes, partially inspired by conspiracy theories involving Berhalter promoting MLS by overrepresentation of MLS in his roster selections.
There is a definite nepotism component that lead to GGG being hired in the first place, but the QSMNT branding is still on point. USMNT fans in Twitter are notoriously toxic and conspiracy-driven.
I mean. . . it's Twitter.
Quit supporting?
I will support the Berhalter endorsement but wow had he better make nice with Gio Reyna because he raises the whole team a level. Good problems to have with Reyna, McKennie, Adams and Musah all deserving time in the midfield.
I generally don't think that it works to have the same coach for two world cup cycles, but given the options, I think this is fine (though the process to get there seems nuts). The Copa next summer also offers a good test at the midway point of the World Cup cycle. If the US significantly underachieves (goes out in the initial round or gets played off the pitch by a team other than Brazil or Argentina in the quarters) then the US can explore options. If they meet or exceed expectations, then all's good.
As you say, Reyna's super important, not only because he's very talented, but also because he allows for mid-field rotation without a drop off. MMA starting every match in Qatar did leave the US vulnerable against the Dutch, just because they do so much work and were noticeably leggy in that match.
Also note the assumption that the Game will be at noon, which is technically not guaranteed—Fox could choose another Big Ten game for their #1 overall pick—but is about as certain as anything in this crazy mixed-up world.
Exactly. This is Manuel championing something that didn't change, was under no real threat to change, and he has no power to change anyway. He's been doing that quite a bit. Expressed strong public opinions to keep the MSU rivalry when frankly it would've been a huge uphill battle for anyone to change that. OTOH even something as common sense as re-signing Harbaugh was "controversial" enough to get him soiling his pants and publicly involving his boss.
To be fair, this sort of cynical posturing is hardly unique. It's a depressingly common, tried-and-true way to build and establish a teflon reputation. . . turn something that is technically popular and already status quo into a "cause" so when nothing happens you can stick gaudy feathers in your cap for doing diddly squat, while staying as far away as possible from anything with even remotely divided opinion.
To be fair, that means Manuel is, in essence, a politician.
lol.
I don't think its accurate to say "a couple bounces go differently and this team is playing Lionel Messi and Argentina in the quarterfinals." The US may have outshot the Dutch, but the Dutch were dominating that game and were snipers on the counterattack. The 3 to 1 score line felt justified. There was a clear difference in quality between the two teams.
All that being said, there were no better options than Berhalter available to the USMNT so I'm also for the rehire. The team should be much better heading into the 2026 World Cup after playing together in the same system and continuing to gain experience. A couple adjustments here and there and they should make a lot of noise in 2026.
Also, the US goal in that match may have been the flukiest scored in the entire tournament. Cross hits an attacker's trailing leg and somehow chips the keeper from 3 yards out? The US played well in the tournament but they were clearly outplayed in that match.
Yeah, I've seen Brian make this argument multiple times before. I don't buy it. It strikes me as a similiar way the stat-heads all looked at the M/OSU game and said M was lucky to win because of the big plays, without recognizing the big plays were a result of the way OSU was calling the game. In other words, The Dutch let the US have the possession because they knew 1) the US wasn't dangerous in the attack 2) they could punish us on the counter and 3)they led for a large portion of the game and game theory stated they didn't need to play aggressive. Guess what happened - they punished us on the counter and the US wasn't dangerous on the attack. It wasn't unlucky - that's how the game would have played out 9 times out of 10.
With that said, I have been ambivalent about the Gregg hire. You're not getting anyone much better with only one major tournament (copa) over the next 3+ years. If Gregg does well there, good. If not, then we need to be re-evaluating the manager going into the World Cup. So, I don't believe he should be viewed as a shoo-in to be on the sidelines in 2026.
The quote wasn't from Brian, it was from another article that he was quoting.
Brian wasn't saying they played well at the World Cup, just that they played well when you consider everything going against them like youth, inexperience, lack of a true striker, poor centerback play, etc.
If you go back and read his World Cup postmortem, he criticized the US's inability to score. He outlined that the best teams were great on the counter attack and were NOT firing crosses into the box as often as the US did.
I think if Gio Reyna plays in WC 2022, we see a different approach. Less focus on the wide parts of the pitch, more bringing the ball through the center. Also Michael Robinson would have been a huge upgrade at CB. The lack of a true striker was half on Berhalter and half on the players he had available. He didn't bring the right guys but he didn't have much to choose from. Hopefully Balogun changes that.
That was then. This current team can play... Gonna be a fun 2026 Cup.
For sure. No World cup matches too close to Michigan, Toronto closest by far, but I'd love to see something in person since the cup may not be back here in my lifetime. Balogun, Miles Robinson, McKennie, Reyna, Pulisic, etc. There's a lot of legit talent on the team now, and they're all young and still getting better.
Yeah, I thought Brian's WC takes were pretty strange overall. I'm kind of shocked we outshot the Netherlands--pretty significantly--and had the advantage in possession, because I seem to remember us getting dominated by them pretty badly. And conversely, I don't remember us getting dominated by Belgium in 2014. I remember that as a back and forth affair, one we actually should have won, as Wondolowski missed a wide open net in stoppage time that would almost certainly have resulted in a 1-0 win, instead of sending it to extra time tied 0-0 where we ended up losing 2-1...
xG of the Belgium-US game in 2014 was 4.8 to 3.0. Howard was a god in that game plain and simple and is the only reason they had a chance.
Game states matter and I think that has a lot to do with the overall stats of the US/Netherlands game. Netherlands were up two goals and played accordingly. They were better. But the US team was very young and didn't have the depth to play with their three midfielders all not really fully fit - they didn't look the same, and Pulisic was clearly not even remotely near 100% as well. And I think a fair bit of Gregg complaints are really US Soccer Federation problems, not Gregg-specific. As long as he mends with Reyna, it'll probably be fine.
As for the 2nd cycle thing, I think that might be as much an effect of roster aging as anything. Coaches have "their guys" and they can get stuck on playing some guys who probably shouldn't be starting or playing anymore. That will not be an issue. It was a very young team at the World Cup that would have been even younger if our first choice center backs hadn't both been injured. The oldest outfield player who got on the field against Mexico a couple weeks ago in the Nations League (which was our A team)? Miles Robinson, who is 26. He'll be 29 at the next World Cup. Jedi's 25, Pulisic is 24, the MMA midfield is 24, 20, 24, the whole damn first choice team is just young dudes.
Gregg does some maddening things at times, but as I'm not sure what would have been better going forward that was available, I'm ok with the guy who has moved them in the right direction and the "veteran" players like. I'm certainly not convinced the USSF would have picked the right replacement.
Brian didn't say the team was a couple bounces away from winning against the Dutch. He was using someone else's quote to highlight why he things the rehiring of Berhalter was justified. If you go back and read his World Cup postmortem, he felt the US played into their opponents hands a lot. Especially against the Netherlands.
He went into detail about how the most successful teams at the World Cup were dangerous off of counters and were NOT firing in cross after cross after cross, which is what the US did.
I'm 50-50 on Berhalter coming back, but the take about the U.S. being "a couple bounces" away from beating the Netherlands is a bit much. They led by two goals for a large portion of the match, which can make stats like possession and shot attempts misleading. We were desperately trying to get back into the match while the Dutch were in cruise control and weren't going to take too many major chances. We finally clawed back a goal in the second half, which prompted the Dutch to quickly wake up and put the match to bed.
Yeah, I saw that portrayal and similarly thought it was a stretch. At the end of the first half the Dutch were up 2-0 and and led something like 5-2 in shots on goal. They hung back and the US made a game of it in the second for a while but that never quite felt like a pitched contest of equals.
Now, that doesn't mean it was bad for the US - Netherlands is a really good team and they showed toughness against England as well. And I agree that the US as the underdog has gotten tiring; yes the US probably won't ever be a dominant soccer nation but they absolutely shouldn't be trying to mid-major their way through international play. Maybe Berhalter really does awaken that but as Brian noted coaches don't tend to make massive differences for clubs and a lot of the issues with the US for years seemed cultural down from the very top. So yeah, I'm not up in arms that he's back but I also think the way he came back, with US soccer doing their (seemingly) limited due diligence with other candidates, isn't all that inspiring.
Good news for Bowman! Kid put in a lot of work here seemed like a positive teammate. Certainly could have gone somewhere else and started sooner. Glad to see him getting his due.
So.. we have now three former QBs starting elsewhere. Milton, McNamara, Bowman. Has to be unprecedented.
All Power Five conferences (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12), too.
I don't take that as a bad thing, but I don't take that as a good thing, either.
McNamara lost his job to a clearly superior QB. That's nice for us, but it would've been nicer to see him stick around (we have a LOT to say about how much work the backup QB gets). We couldn't fix Milton. Bowman was maybe a luxury, I thought he looked too good to stay, but losing both him and Cade wasn't ideal.
I don't expect every starter-caliber QB to stick around, but beyond simply "JJ is so darn good he's chasing everyone out", this kinda sucks for QB depth.
Who's our #2 now? Davis Warren?
Agree. Furthermore, Milton only looks good when the other team is missing their defensive starters. I suspect Milton won't be starting for long (reminds me of the JaMarcus Russell hype). I am still amazed that Bowman came to Michigan in the first place (perhaps it was best offer on table and a chance to work with Harbaugh?)
I don't think its reasonable to hope for/expect a guy to stick around to be a backup when he's good enough to play elsewhere. Backup QB isn't meant to be a position of strength, as much as we'd like it to be.
Tuttle.
Sure, it’d be nice to still have Cade, but in this day and age you can’t expect a former starter to be happy on the bench. We all expected the loser of the Cade/JJ battle to transfer and it happened.
Returning B10 corner list. First thing i noticed just like the author and everyone else, no OSU player. 2nd thing? Minnesota with 2 of the top 6? Dang. Recruiting at OSU rivals Georgia and Alabama. Player development at OSU rivals William & Mary or Dartmouth.
Player development at OSU rivals William & Mary or Dartmouth.
That's an insult to the fine football programs at William & Mary and Dartmouth!
This has to be something UM can use to out-recruit OSU. I read about it in a comment in another thread a few days ago, but these kids just don't seem to care. At a certain point, your development has to matter to you. It's what you're entire life is going to be built around.
Fleck and his staff have done a good job of identifying and developing talent.
Don't be silly. Someone's gonna jump at the chance to spend a 1st round pick on Denzel Burke and his iron toughne. . .
I-I-I mean, his blazing spee. . .
OK fine, at least his heart & motorohfercryingoutloud
NEVER MIND. They're OSU, so they're best in country, QED.
And in every shot there Lanthan Ranson (12) is looking even worse. Their whole secondary just got destroyed that day
There's more though! He came around the backside edge unblocked on the last TD, and then went into no-man's-land expecting JJ to keep. Well, I guess that's what he was thinking, but he couldn't have caught JJ either.
Alan Bowman's going to start for Okie State.
This is quite the departure from even just a few seasons ago when the 3rd/4th string QB for UM (depending if you're counting McNamara on the depth chart last season) can transfer and immediately become the starting QB for another power 5 school. But maybe Okie St just had no QB depth, I know nothing about them.
????
Oklahoma State lost their multi-year starter Spencer Sanders and they have a bunch of young QBs in the depth chart. It's more of a case where Gundy wanted an experienced QB starting for his team. It's not because Bowman is so good that he's a must-start.
Hate seeing Kalen King at the top of that returning CBs board. Would have liked him to be in maize and blue. Didn't love the way he punk'd us during his announcement, though.
Sure, but every time I see Kalen King's name I hear the boink sound he made when he bounced off another PSU DB as Erick All took the gamewinner to the endzone.
Bringing berhalter back isn’t some doomsday bad decision but the top line numbers vastly oversell some of the results. The team looked bad on the road all of qualifying and finished second in a historically bad concacaf region. This was followed by a good game against England and then two extremely mediocre performances against two teams the us had more talent then. And to be frank we were pretty fortunate to hang onto the draw against wales and the win against Iran as they completely turtled and got dominated at the end of both games.
I frankly don’t think it’s going to go great but also agree a manager has a small impact so it’s not a huge deal.
For a lot of the guys on the team those were their first real road national team matches. Nations League and Gold Cup are basically always played in US stadiums. There's nothing that can prepare you for the switch to a road game in World Cup qualifying. Hell, even some of the home matches too! Balogun's comments after the Mexico match in Nations League, for instance - people who have been there (like Pulisic) can tell you about it but actually experiencing The Full CONCACAF is a whole other ballgame.
I think there are multiple reasons forthcoming why it makes sense to move OSU out of the last game of the season slot instead of resisting it until The Game becomes something where both teams rest starters to play the following week instead, before then possibly meeting again in the Playoff a couple of weeks later is a real possibility.
I love it where it is but it cannot stay there so let's get the show on the road.
Regarding OSU going for it. How many times did that offense even get to fourth down???
Third down conversions were a given with receiving corps.
Last year OSU was 11 of 19 on 4th downs 58% conversion rate. Their offense averaged 8 yards per play during the entire season.
I was surprised & disappointed many times last season when OSU didn't go for it on 4th when Day had been aggressive on 4th down in prior years.
My take is that not going for it on 4th down frequently in 2022 was an overreaction to the 2021 Oregon loss. They went for it on 4th many times vs Oregon, but did not convert several of their attempts. They lost by 7 and perhaps could have won with FGs instead of failed 4th down attempts.
2022 was very un-Ryan Day like compared to his aggressiveness in prior seasons.
And he’d be right. It’s a game of percentages, not certainties, so you can have a 75% chance of success or whatever and still lose five times in a row. And football fans are in general not good at math (cripes a lot of them are gamblers).
So you can be right in a way a mathematician will understand, but that won’t keep you out of trouble in a world of idiots.
Sometimes the job of a football coach isn’t about making the right call so much as the one that keeps you your job.
Day went for it on 4th last year vs M on I believe osu's 2nd possession? Tried a bomb when they needed a long 1.
I knew at that moment the game was going to end much like '21 did.
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