Essentials

WHAT	Michigan at Rutgers
WHERE	Phil Klein Insurance Group Stadium Piscataway, NJ
WHEN	7:30 PM ET Saturday, November 21
THE LINE	Michigan –10.5 (Vegas)
TELEVISION	BTN PBP: Mark Followill Analyst: James Laurinaitis Reporter: Elise Menaker
TICKETS	not this year
WEATHER	cloudy, mid-40s no rain, minimal wind

Overview

Ah, Rutgers. They've got Greg Schiano back, and the rise of transfer waivers means they're undertaking an expansion draft more-or-less annually. This means they've gotten off the mat. I mean, somewhat. They did just lose to Illinois.

But consider that they beat Michigan State—Michigan did not—and kept the Indiana game closer than Michigan did. And who's raising their hand for a 49-27 final against Ohio State? Michigan just lost to Wisconsin 49-11, and recent Wisconsin-OSU matchups have not gone well for the Badgers.

What I'm saying here is that a double-digit spread is surprising.

[Hit THE JUMP for dinky dink]

Run Offense vs Rutgers

Dwumfour has flipped the script [Bryan Fuller]

I try not to say things are "pathetic" because it gives off a real meathead sports radio vibe but there's no other way to describe Michigan's ground game right now. After rushing for a net 13 yards against Indiana (INDIANAAAAAAA) Michigan scrabbled out 47 against Wisconsin. That is consecutive rushing rutgers. Now: Rutgers.

Michigan will try to get healthy, literally and metaphorically. The return of one starting tackle would be very helpful, especially if it is Jalen Mayfield. The ability to pick up a stunt would also be very helpful, because as Seth notes there's going to be a ton of that from Rutgers:

It's time to talk about the Stunt 43, which front is most associated with the Steel Curtain (that's the 1970s Pittsburgh Steelers for you young 'uns). Rutgers uses it to deal with their lack of large defensive linemen. It's a neat trick, and if Gattis has any success attacking it I'm probably writing about it in more detail next week.

… To this they have the 3-tech (Dwumfour) and the 5-tech burst upfield as fast as possible, adding to the mess and forcing the ball the hell out of the middle as soon as possible. Now, normally you don't want to do this stuff because you're asking for your DEs to be doubled to oblivion by the OT and TE. That's fine in Stunt 43 world because they have the ILBs jumping outside those blocks. All you get for removing a defensive end is a linebacker popping up on the same edge, and nobody for him. …

It's an underdog strategy, for sure, so if you get it blocked correctly they're going to break for big chunks.

Emphasis mine. This is our concern, dude.

This weird system crushed MSU, did pretty well against Indiana, and got ripped to shreds by OSU and Illinois. In Illinois's case they did it by putting a Denard-esque guy in at QB, an option that Michigan does not have. OSU is on another level from normal good Michigan teams. Chances are it's back to the salt mines for the ground game as Michigan has a flurry of mis-identifications and eats a bunch of guys in the backfield with no real plan on how to address this specific weird thing since their current practices are more about teaching guys how to eat applesauce than installing specific tweaks to combat what the opposition is doing.

KEY MATCHUP: MIKE DWUMFOUR vs REVENGE. He's their starting three-tech and the kind of things he does are the kind of things he always did. Now they're pointed at the disarray that is Michgian's interior.

Pass Offense vs Rutgers

First start? [Bryan Fuller]

Joe Milton imploded against Wisconsin and Cade McNamara threw a few pretty passes en route to Michigan's only touchdown, so the rumor mill is buzzing that McNamara will start. Having a far-and-away fall camp leader who gets yanked in game four while the former #1 QB is hanging out with his brother in Nebraska is a terrible look, but that's (almost) outside the scope of this post.

If it is McNamara, Michigan will be deploying a much smaller and somewhat slower QB than Milton. McNamara will hope to make up for those deficiencies by being more accurate and having better command of the offense. There is some chance of that since McNamara came out of Nevada high school ball with a boatload of experience:

…he enters college with over 1300 attempts to his name. There are vanishingly few high school quarterbacks who can claim as much live-fire experience. And probably just as few have put in more time off the field. Local reporter Jim Krajewski:

[McNamara] started attending elite-level quarterback camps and training sessions all over the West coast starting about four or five years ago. … spends every day, year-round, working out and preparing to be a quarterback.”

On the other hand, he's a redshirt freshman who was behind Milton until he suddenly wasn't.

Whoever it is will be going up against a defense that is not exactly Wisconsin quality. MSU threw for 7.4 yards an attempt against Rutgers; as all games not against Michigan have demonstrated, MSU's offense is a dumpster fire. Indiana hit 9.2 and OSU 11.2. The only game in which they've even sort of held up was last week, when Illinois started Isaiah Williams (not that Isaiah Williams), a 5'10" guy with rocket boots who's out there to rush 31 times for almost 200 yards.

Rutgers has also not been prolific getting to the quarterback, with seven sacks in their first four games despite playing a couple of extremely bad OLs. Michigan's protection has been meh, but that should be good enough to move the ball some if the quarterback is throwing accurately.

KEY MATCHUP: QUARTERBACK vs THIRD AND NINE. Brace yourself.

Run Defense vs Rutgers

This will happen some more [Patrick Barron]

The burly and fairly fast Isaih Pacheco returns; he operates behind the usual makeshift line of position switches and transfers. This year they've coped fairly well with the talent level. MSU gave them a hard time but they had a decent day against Indiana (3.7 YPC), a shockingly good one against OSU considering the talent disparities (4.4) and cracked 5 YPC against Illinois. Seth is a fan:

I was saving "Isaih Pacheco is the best running back in the conference" for a hot take segment after I saw him tear Michigan State to shreds, but we've learned since that anybody could tear Michigan State's defense to shreds if you put your athletes in space against theirs.

…

Anyway Pacheco. You remember how fast he is but his feet are awesome, allowing him to cut ninety degrees on a dime.

After this I started a "Fools Hurdled" counter, a tradition that dates back to when my Sparty brother and I would do this with Le'Veon Bell games. A good Bell game saw at least two and maybe three fools hurdled. Pacheco got up to 4 fools in this one, 4.5 if you count going down after clearing the fool.

QB Noah Vedral is also deployed with some frequency; he's averaging 7 non-sack carries a game. Vedral is smack dab in the middle of "acceptable" as a runner. He'll grab some yards if you don't have someone checking him. He is not a guy you have to gameplan for. He's likely to rip off a couple chunks as Michigan focuses on Pacheco.

Michigan was down both defensive end against Wisconsin and took it on the chin. This was going to happen anyway but the utter lack of edge play probably cost Michigan a yard per carry. Aidan Hutchinson is done; Kwity Paye could return. Michigan's chances in this game go up considerably if he does.

KEY MATCHUP:

Pass Defense vs Rutgers

Melton is the threat

Well, folks, here is an acid test to see if there's any bottom in the secondary. Vedral is averaging 5.3 yards an attempt with six touchdowns and seven interceptions. As is traditional at Rutgers he spends almost all of his time dinking screens and the like around the line of scrimmage: he's averaging 8.1 yards a completion. I have an even better stat if you want the Rutgers passing game in a nutshell: third-stringer Johnny Langan is 5/5 for -1 yards this season.

So yeah virtually any sustained downfield passing is a fire elmo situation. I expect Rutgers to try a bunch of fades despite their clear unsuitability for such an undertaking because their guys can draw blinding pass interference penalties just by being vaguely near a football. Also here's Seth taunting God:

"That could happen to our cornerbacks too!" I hear you say, but if we're busting that badly in double-coverage on the one non-running back target who can get behind a defense, call off the season.

I'm trying to! Seth! I AM TRYING TO CALL OFF THE SEASON!

Anyway. Since Michigan's CBs have generally been in contact with WRs after the MSU game and Rutgers is plainly terrified of their pass protection, dinking will still be the heart of the Rutgers offense. Michigan has been middling at best when contesting dinks. The corners are iffy tackles, and misdirection has popped guys open for screens on the regular.

FWIW, slot Bo Melton is still around. He's the one guy who can get behind the defense mentioned above. He's joined by Wisconsin transfer Aron Cruickshank, another 5'10" guy with B+ wheels who operates as a wide running back. Melton will be the downfield target. He's averaging 17 yards a catch, which is an incredible number given all the other ones associated with the Rutgers passing offense. Cruickhank is averaging 6, which approximately what Pachecho gets when it's checked down to him. Shameen Jones is the only tallish guy on the roster and may get some fade looks.

For Michigan's part they're going to have to be a ton better about falling off guys who crack block than they have been in recent weeks. Getting Kwity Paye back would be a massive boost; without him there is some chance that Vedral can stand in the pocket and survey.

KEY MATCHUP: CORNERBACKS vs TACKLING. All that jet sweep crap Michigan ate last week is on the menu again, albeit against a far less functional team. Rutgers will deliver the ball to the perimeter over and over again and challenge Michigan secondary members to tackle in space.

SPECIAL TEAMS

I did not make these names up as some sort of New Jersey joke. These are literally the names of Rutgers specialists. I repeat: this is not a joke.

Rutgers has split time between placekickers Guy Fava and Valentino Ambrosio. Both have hit 2/2 of field goals; we have no other data on them since Ayime Walkenhear kicked in 2019. Punter—[checks notes] [exhales]—Adam Korsak returns and has picked up where he left of with a 44-yard average.

Cruickshank returns kickoffs and has been replacement-level for Rutgers; he had two KR TDs as a Badger. Punt returner Avery Young has been miraculously bad, averaging 2.6 yards an attempt on 11 tries last year and 2.8 on four this year. How is that even possible? On the other hand, he did throw this cross-field lateral to Bo Melton:

So that's a thing.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• Mike Dwumfour is really mad and living in the backfield.
• Paye is out again.
• Bo Melton's running fades and someone's trying to hit him with an axe.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• Uh
• Well
• You See

Fear/Paranoia Level: 5 (Baseline: 5; –1 for Double Digit Line, Folks!, –1 for I Mean It Is Still Rutgers, +1 for Rutgers That Beat MSU!, –1 for After Seven Turnovers, +1 for We're Fairly Rutgers Now, +1 for Injury Plague Still Continuing)

Desperate need to win level: 1 (Baseline: 5; –1 for LPONE zone, –1 for It's Hockey Season In America, –1 for It's Basketball Season In America, –1 for Apparently Harbaugh Isn't Getting Fired).

Loss will cause me to… remember that time Gary Nova went for 400 yards against Michigan as the good old days.

Win will cause me to… continue experience no feelings in regard to football activities.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

A close back-and-forth game that eventually turns on the fact that Michigan can pass protect a little and Rutgers can't. If Bo Melton is ripping downfield like Ricky White did in the MSU game, that's game over. I think Michigan will be able to bracket him and live with the consequences elsewhere.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid tomorrow:

• McNamara starts.
• I watch the game in a half-hearted daze.
• Michigan, 23-18