11 Warriors on Shea Patterson

Submitted by Caesar on

Interesting, well-written stuff (link), though I look forward to more of Brian's analysis. 

To summarize, Patterson's last Ole Miss OC relied on receivers winning 1-on-1 matchups against teams with less talent and quick throws/RPOs against the 'Bama/LSUs of college football. Importantly, however, that offense did not require him to make a 'read' in the traditional sense of the word. He isn't looking at a linebacker stance as much as he's trusting his receivers to get open after they make route adjustments based on the coverages. In this context, Patterson is praised for his ability to drop the ball in a bucket and knowing where that bucket needs to go. He definitely has great tools.

The negatives start with Patterson getting spooked after LSU/'Bama DLs aged his body by a few years. Patterson's throwing mechanics (which apparently need work to begin with) are entirely abandoned and get further out-of-sync. This even showed up against Cal. Also, the author asserts that Michigan runs a ball-control offense that relies much more on precision and reads than did the Ole Miss offense. If Patterson's INT rate persists, it will be unnacceptable in this different schematic context.

Questions. I'd really appreciate it if any knowledgeable commenters can get into the weeds about his throwing motion, comparing the Ole Miss offense to Michigan, and some ideas on the probable transition cost.

Edit: Welcome back UMBig11! I hope all is well with your family, and we look forward to your insights whenever things clear up for you. 

JonnyHintz

May 22nd, 2018 at 9:04 AM ^

Have you watched O’Korn? It’s not a difficult thing to see Patterson is better than O’Korn by a mile and a half, or as far as Joe Milton can throw a football (which may be longer)

bronxblue

May 22nd, 2018 at 7:57 AM ^

Decent article, though (a) it looked like they only watched the Cal game, and (b) they tried to make a distinction without a difference based on the the whole "we don't read defenses" discussion. Ole Miss's offense does rely on winning matchups, but you could tell that a lot of those plays were absolutely drawn up for the receivers to run, at most, two different routes based on how their defender matches up. So maybe a deep crossing route of he goes outside or a comebacker if he plays inside. Stuff like that. Patterson has to read that and respond accordingly. It's perhaps not the same as doing a lot of pre-snap checks, but at least to me, it's not demonstrably different. It certainly doesn't look any different than what OSU's passing offense is. Also, they sort of lost me when they alluded to the fact that even Vandy had a passing defense. I'm not saying they are elite, but that was by far his best game against a good defense and as we saw in Brian's analysis, it was a solid outing for him even with some of the gifts Vandy gave him.

JonnyHintz

May 22nd, 2018 at 9:24 AM ^

I don’t think they were using the “reading defenses” thing as a knock on Patterson necessarily. As you mentioned, it’s not part of OSUs offense either. But that’s fine if that’s your offense. The issue they bring up, is that reading defenses is a necessity at QB in Michigan’s offense. And that it isn’t something Patterson has shown the ability to do yet.

Yost Ghost

May 22nd, 2018 at 8:13 AM ^

I don't see a post in this thread from UMBig11 as referenced in OP's edit. Am I missing something or is OP mistaking Mineral King for UMBig11?

DJMich23

May 22nd, 2018 at 8:34 AM ^

I think rival fans believe Michigan fans see Shea Patterson as their savior and this is just not the case. Most of us just expect a noticeable upgrade (solid QB play) compared to last years debacle. He doesn't have to be Johnny Manziel. As we all know, if Michigan had just average QB play, there's a good chance that they beat both MSU and especially OSU.

mgobleu

May 22nd, 2018 at 8:53 AM ^

I'm seeing the same phenomenon. Everywhere you look it's headlines like: "HOLD YOUR HORSES, MICHIGAN FAN. SHEA PATTERSON IS JUST ONE GUY AND blah blah blah..." and I'm like DUDE, my horses are held. Mind your own damn horses and we'll be just fine thank you very much. I see lots of Michigan fans that are excited about his potential, but they're also the ones that give sideeye and a furrowed brow to all the media's lofty playoff predictions, mock NFL drafts and Heisman talk.

ak47

May 22nd, 2018 at 8:50 AM ^

It was a fair accurate article that says Shea obviously has some elite tools but it isn't just going to be plug and play of a great QB.

MGoStrength

May 22nd, 2018 at 9:16 AM ^

First, I'd guess if Patterson is relying on WRs beating matchups that DPJ, Black, Perry, McKeon, & Gentry will beat a lot of DBs/LBs.  I'd guess they have an athletic and/or size advantage against everyone with only a handful of possible exceptions on our schedule (OSU, ND, & maybe Wiscy & PSU). 

 

Two, from what I've seen Patterson's feet are both a blessing and a curse.  He uses his feet to get out of trouble and throw from positions that most QBs can't or wouldn't be advised to throw from.  However, Shea can and often does successfully throw in odd positions with his feet once he breaks the pocket as this is when the play breaks down & often WRs are wide open at this point as coverages breaks down and/or DBs leave WRs to chase the QB or lose track of the WR altogether so the throw requires less precision.  Although his feet & body do some difference things (ala Manziel), his throwing motion and release seem pretty fundamentally sound and quick.

 

Third, I don't know enough about the simplicity of reading coverages and the complexity or lack thereof of various offenses for a QB.  However, it appears that Harbaugh has made an effort to simplify the offense for both the QB and the o-line.  In addition, at least in this case, the QB will have the benefit of the WRs to have a year under their belts whereas last year a number of guys were really inexperienced.

 

At the end of the day I would expect some bumps along the way and some growing pains.  I think Shea is probably over hyped a bit as we get really excited about stuff and things rarely live up to our expectations.  However, I think Shea is also going to mix in a lot of big and exciting plays we just didn't see last year.  I also expect Shea to improve over the course of the season & to be a vast upgrade over JOK.  That, and I'd expect our backup (Peters) to be a better version of himself over last season after his experience playing last year.  The QB, WR, and o-line options should all together be better off than last year which should ultimately give us a much better offense.  If you combine that with our defense which should also be better than last year, this should be quite a strong team that should peak at the end of the year.

jigsmcgee

May 22nd, 2018 at 9:16 AM ^

reporting that OL is in terrible shape, worse than last year.   Main reason spring game was canceled, not weather.

I will accept anyone's wager on the over Wins in Season.

God i hope these guys are wrong.

Night_King

May 22nd, 2018 at 10:00 AM ^

Let's think about this for a second......

LT - Will be worse than last year. I don't think anyone will play at Mason Cole's level this season.

LG - Bredeson returning for 3rd year of starting. Will improve.

C - Hearing rave reviews about Cesar Ruiz. Will be better than Kugler.

RG - Onwenu returning for 2nd year of starting. Will improve.

RT - Runyan looking to pick up where he left off at the end of last year. Will be fine. Not a run mauler like JBB was at the position, but more athletic and a better pass protector? 

At minimum, we will be as good, if not much improved in 3 of the 5 spots. RT I believe will be a wash, if not improved. Remember, last year RT was a mess with Ulizio. Left tackle is the one spot where we will take a step back, no matter if it is JBB or someone else. Keep in mind, Warinner > Drevno.

 

I hereby conclude that "the OL is in terrible shape" is horse shit. 

Night_King

May 22nd, 2018 at 10:21 AM ^

Yeah I'm really not as concerned about it as some folks. Just really anxious to see how we look at LT. I think the interior line is going to wear some D Lines out. Also love the focus on athleticism.

Let's also keep in mind that the entire receiving corps (WR and TEs) return, and I expect Higdon & Evans to have huge seasons.

Perkis-Size Me

May 22nd, 2018 at 11:37 AM ^

So we'll be worse at arguably the second-most important position on the team? Great.......

I don't doubt that Bredeson, Ruiz and Onwenu will improve, so the interior of the line will be better. But that is an incredibly scary thought if the guy who protects our QB's blindside will be worse than what we had last year. 

No disrespect to Mason Cole. I applaud him for his versatility and playing any and every position the coaches asked him to, but it was very clear where his limitations were when he went up against better DLs. And we're going to be facing some pretty damn good DLs this season. Last thing we want to see is our LT whiff on some bull rush from a DE and then we see for the third time in less than a year that our starting QB gets taken to the hospital. 

Really hope Warriner can make something happen with this OL this year.