Bracketology: 5 Seed/Midwest
Lunardi has moved us up to a 5 seed in the newest version:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
And before everyone yells at me about Bracket Matrix. It hasn't been updated to account for yesterday's victory yet.
I do believe CBS's version has been updated, and still has Michigan at 7.
I would be a'ok with that region. Tennessee as the 4, Xavier as the 1.
February 19th, 2018 at 12:45 PM ^
would happen if we won our next two and won at least two in the BTT.
If we win our next two, those are both Q1 road games, plus it would (likely) lock us into 4 seed, which means two more wins in the BTT would be over Nebraska and MSU. That would definitely, 100% be enough to get us a 4-seed.
I think we'd even get it if Nebraska also won out, we still got the 5 seed, and beat Iowa/Illinois and Nebraska but lost to MSU.
These next two road games are difficult and will be huge resume boosters if we get them. Even if we split them, we'd be looking good for a 6 seed if we get to the BTT semis.
February 19th, 2018 at 12:58 PM ^
I hope this is correct but I don't know. It just seems like the B1G isn't highly valued in the eyes of observers. I'm afraid that the the committee will give us the same downgrade as MSU and the rest even though we had to play a significantly tougher league schedule.
February 19th, 2018 at 6:00 PM ^
about the B1G as a conference or its overall strength.
It cares about our resume and we would have a very good one if that scenario played out. Remember, we've played a very difficult conference schedule since we played Purdue and OSU twice, and played at MSU, Maryland, PSU and Nebraska. We played road games against the top 6 teams in the conference.
February 19th, 2018 at 9:41 AM ^
February 19th, 2018 at 9:55 AM ^
I don't know about passing Purdue...Couldn't they be sent to Nashville as a top 4 seed? Detroit and Nashville are about the same distance from West Lafeyette.
February 19th, 2018 at 10:03 AM ^
They could, but Purdue, MSU, Xavier and Cincy are all top 3 seeds that could be sent to either Nashville and Detroit, and that Nashville site could also have a variety of ACC/SEC teams sent to it.
Us going to Detroit is just not happening.
February 19th, 2018 at 10:16 AM ^
Really good points
February 19th, 2018 at 1:12 PM ^
is about the same distance from Detroit, Nashville and Pittsburgh.
Likely one or both Cinci teams would end up in Pittsburgh if we got a top 4 seed.
February 19th, 2018 at 10:10 AM ^
February 19th, 2018 at 11:02 AM ^
February 19th, 2018 at 12:38 PM ^
Plus one for you sir, why does Duke and/or UNC get Charlotte every year? How does Charlotte get to host a game every year as well??
February 19th, 2018 at 1:02 PM ^
If it's not Charlotte, it's Greensboro.
February 19th, 2018 at 1:31 PM ^
Money. UNC, Duke, Wake, NC State, UNCC all have rabid as hell fans. Even when their teams are poor they show up and scream. And they all hate each other so they'll show up to the other games to scream against the others. There won't be many empty seats, if any. Ratings will be huge in the region as well.
As a side note, I enjoyed the heck out of UM's last trip to Charlotte. I took the kids out of school and we went. We pounded Tennessee, I think, then lost to Duke on a last second miss. Kids loved it, I loved it and we'll do it again if they ever come to North Carolina again.
February 19th, 2018 at 1:16 PM ^
and hope UM comes to Charlotte. I live 50 minutes away!! I'd be there to scream for my team!!
February 19th, 2018 at 1:28 PM ^
get put in Charlotte over UNC.
Definitely a fail by the planning committee to have Pittsburgh and Charlotte the only hosts remotely close to the east coast from NE all the way down to Florida.
Boise as a host just screwed everything up.
February 19th, 2018 at 1:38 PM ^
we definitely don't have to pass Purdue. West Lafayette is barely closer to Detroit than Nashville (275 miles to 350).
Xavier or Cinci could go to Pittsburgh if we get a 4 seed (same distance for them to go there or Nashville or Detroit). We would probably still be in Detroit if we get a 4 seed. Too close to home for the NCAA not to want to sell those tickets. They probably aren't going to send us 20 times further from home just so another team can make a 275 mile trip instead of a 350 mile trip.
February 19th, 2018 at 9:51 AM ^
We basically have no chance of getting to play in Detroit. Purdue and MSU will be the two top-seeded teams in Detroit.
February 19th, 2018 at 9:36 AM ^
February 19th, 2018 at 9:45 AM ^
I think the Bracket Matrix sucks....Seton Hall, a team that lost to Rutgers, a lower seed than us. Ok...
Don't even get me started on Alabama and Houston.
February 19th, 2018 at 11:26 AM ^
Bracket Matrix is just an aggregate for other bracketologists. But they also haven't updated since yesterday morning so the OSU game hasn't been taken into account. And even then it will alg until everyone gets updated picks in.
February 19th, 2018 at 11:45 AM ^
As noted below, Bracket Matrix is just math. I believe there is some objective weighing of certain ranking systems over others, but it's not their fault that Greg "GUnit_81" Peterson has them as a 5 seed. Also, way to date your twitter name, 36-year-old man who thinks a G-Unit pun will age well.
February 19th, 2018 at 9:47 AM ^
They are off the 7 line at this point. If I had to guess, I'd give them a 6. The other 7s in the bracket for ESPN are Alabama, Missouri, and Creight. M is heads and shoulders above them.
February 19th, 2018 at 10:15 AM ^
What are you using to say UM is head and shoulders above Bama, Missou and Creighton? Right or wrong, the NCAA puts a lot of stock in RPI. I know the NCAA is going to the quadrant format this year but I don't have the time to break everything down into the quandrants.
UM - RPI 28, SOS - 81, NCSS - 273, record against RPI 1-25 is 2-4, 25-50 is 1-0 and 51-100 is 2-2. Overall record against RPI top 100 is 5-6
Bama - RPI 32, SOS - 14, NCSS - 28, RPI 1-25 is 4-3, 25-50 is 1-0, 51-100 is 6-5. Overall recrod against RPI top 100 is 11-8.
Mssouri - RPI 23. SOS - 22, NCSS - 76. RPI 1-25 is 3-3, 25-50 is 1-2, 51-100 is 6-3. Overall record against RPI top 100 is 10-8.
Creighton - RPI 34, SOS - 55, NCSS - 230, RPI 1-25 is 1-4, 26-50 is 3-3, 51-100 is 3-1. Overall record against RPI 100 is 7-8.
February 19th, 2018 at 10:27 AM ^
Watching all the teams. Don't shatter my post with your damn facts lol.
February 19th, 2018 at 10:33 AM ^
Michigan would be a heavy favorite if there was a bet on which of those teams would go farthest in the tournament.
February 19th, 2018 at 12:39 PM ^
But this leaves out a good bit of information about the teams. For example, Alabama is 17-10, and Missouri is 17-9 with a home loss to Illinois. Creighton's record is better, but their best win, RPI-wise, is Seton Hall, followed by Providence.
Of course, this is all immaterial, since the committee weighs "What's the best narrative to have people talking about the tournament?" far above all of this, but, on the merits, Michigan should have those teams beat, at least at the moment.
February 20th, 2018 at 12:08 AM ^
the NCAA puts a ton of emphasis on records. Obviously it's a factor but I think they look at overall resume to see how that record was achieved. It's one of the reasons why MSU is seeded 3rd in the first release even though they have a better record then some of the teams with better seeds.
Alabama and Missouri have played about 66% of their games against teams in the RPI 100. UM has only played 37% of their games against teams in the RPI 100.
February 19th, 2018 at 1:41 PM ^
that the committee is using. "top X" is a little meaningless without including locations of games now.
February 19th, 2018 at 5:12 PM ^
Is there a website that breaks down a teams resume with the quandrant system?
February 20th, 2018 at 12:59 AM ^
by quadrant.
February 19th, 2018 at 9:38 AM ^
Some updates on the RPI of our opponents, specifically ones on the brink of dropping quadrants.
Nebraska is currently 60 so they'd probably have to lose both their remaining regular season games to fall below 75, which is highly unlikely considering they're both at home. A bigger threat to drop, IMO, is Maryland, currently 67th. Their remaining schedule is difficult: @ NW and home vs. Michigan. A decent chance they go 1-1 (that's what KP predicts) and it's not crazy to see them losing both games (although McIntosh may still be out for NW)Your point about Iowa [lost at home to IU on Saturday, current RPI of 157, potentially dropping to 160+] is valid and a real bummer. IU is locked into Q3 for Michigan since it was at home so they could've dropped 40+ spots and still been in the same quadrant. Iowa at home is on the cusp of being Michigan's 10th Q4 victory, i.e. basically useless.
Another team that I had hopes for that hasn't come through for Michigan is VCU. They've been mostly a dumpster fire since Maui, bottoming out in both RPI (136) and KP (158(!) after a 24-points loss to 11-15 GWU). Was hopeful they could have a decent year and find themselves in the top-100 to give Michigan a Q2 win
Lastly, Wisconsin is currently 134 (Q2 road cutoff is 135), so...I know we like to hate the Badgers' awful style of play and former coach, but we really want them to win out. If they could steal a Senior Day victory over MSU, that would be tremendous.
February 19th, 2018 at 10:41 AM ^
What kind of a moron dreamed up this "Quadrant shit" anyway?
What a Rube Goldberg device.
February 19th, 2018 at 11:31 AM ^
This just makes me hate RPI even more. On what planet is Wisconsin the 134th best team in the counrty. They're 90 on KenPom. Same for Maryland and Nebraska being borderline top 75. Eff RPI.
February 19th, 2018 at 2:26 PM ^
basically underrates all the middle and lower tier Big Ten teams by like 40-80 (!!) spots.
It's largely because they kill you for losing home games and middle to low tier P5 conference teams are going to lose a lot of home games because they have to play a lot of good teams at home.
February 19th, 2018 at 9:44 AM ^
February 19th, 2018 at 9:46 AM ^
In the immortal words of Mitch McGary - Win the Game!
I could see a 1-1 finish for Michigan, which would be slightly annoying but understandable. If there's a way we could get Nebraska in the BTT that would be great because I'd like to stomp them for another "solid" win and revenge.
There has been too much chaos this season to accurately predict seeds ahead of time. (42 upsets of top 10 teams by unranked teams) Michigan you'd think would be off the 8/9 line barring a losing streak to end the season and that's the most important thing.
February 19th, 2018 at 1:51 PM ^
With PSU losing last night, I think Michigan and Nebraska are locked into the 4/5. Just the order that needs to be determined.
February 19th, 2018 at 2:52 PM ^
that we're locked into a 4/5 matchup with Nebraska.
But still a 18% chance that we lose a tiebreaker with PSU for the 5 and end up with the 6 seed. What would have to happen:
PSU beats M (62% chance)
PSU beats Nebraska (50% chance)
Maryland beats M (57% chance)
February 19th, 2018 at 10:10 AM ^
1989, 2013 ....
February 19th, 2018 at 11:52 AM ^
1992 also, I believe.
February 19th, 2018 at 10:30 AM ^
February 19th, 2018 at 10:48 AM ^
I'm curious what the comparative odds are with both. I would assume predicting the bracket would be easier, but I could be wrong. Selecting 68 teams in their exact spot is very difficult, but with each team realistically having about 12 spots to be placed, it makes it easier, especially with the regional situation as well.
February 19th, 2018 at 10:58 AM ^
Lunardi for some reason seems to be predicting final seeding rather than current. Last week he had us where we would likely be with a win vs. OSU. Now he has us where we would probably be with a strong finish and at least an appearance in the BTT Semis, which isnt an unrealistic bet. Or he just likes Michigan. There seems to be a lot of chatter this year, and growing every year, about how strong we are in post season tournaments. This type of reputation could help our seed more and more if we keep it up.
February 19th, 2018 at 11:15 AM ^
I, for one, hope this is not the case. I'm all for what is best for Michigan, but determining seeding based on prior years' teams success in the tournament is similar to Alabama automatically getting a spot in the CFP when their resume doesn't deserve it. Have to base the seed off of this years team, not the accolades of Burke, Stauskas, or Walton.
February 19th, 2018 at 12:01 PM ^
seth davis was just talking about us as a dark horse team to watch per the above logic and how we're playing
February 19th, 2018 at 11:13 AM ^
FWIW, on Bart Torvik's site, if we win out (wins at Penn St., at Maryland, win the BTT), we end up a 3 seed.
If we lose out (losses at Penn St/Maryland, lose to Iowa or Illinois in the first round of the BTT) we end up a 11 seed, but not in a play-in game.
My guess is we end up in the 6-7 range.
February 19th, 2018 at 2:56 PM ^
info about the tail-end scenarios that have about 1% and 5% chance of happening, repsectively.
February 19th, 2018 at 11:14 AM ^
How M does AT psu and Maryland.
Road wins tough to come by in this home cooking officiated environment.
Go Blue.
February 19th, 2018 at 12:23 PM ^
February 19th, 2018 at 11:16 AM ^
This is sooooo much better than wishing to be off the Last Four In/Last Four Out line. Now let's go 2-0 this week and Nebraska go 1-1.