MBB: Minnesota Notes and Perspectives
[Ed-Ace: I'm taking time off this weekend but this diary stands in quite well for a game recap and gives me an excuse to post MG's photos.]
[This and all other photos: Marc-Gregor Campredon]
I don't like to wade into the open threads during or after a game, and since there isn't a recap posted, I wanted to make a couple notes about the game today. It seemed like some folks were disappointed with today's game so I'm going to channel Ace and try to dish out some perspective.
A John Beilein basketball team just shot a horrific 8-32 from three, an unfathomable 12-28 FTs, watched an opposing freshman who came into the game shooting an abysmal 39/19 toss in circus shot after circus shot despite being defended pretty well....and still won. Huh? How did that happen?
1) Rebounding. M continues to be an elite, you heard that correctly, elite defensive rebounding team (11th in the country). Minnesota only rebounded 13% of their misses (5 OREBs) to our 26% (11 OREBs) which gave us five more shot equivalents, every one of them was needed the way we shot.
2) Defense. I thought we played pretty good defense the whole game, but Mason started the game hitting his (typically) ill-advised pull-ups from 17 feet and then Washington took over and hit everything (almsot literally as he started 9-10) he threw towards the basket despite Z being right there making it difficult most of the time. I was like, great, thanks Brian. You had to go write the entire preview about their awful 2 point shooting, and of course, they make them against us (and for the record it was just Mason and Washington that shot well, everyone else was mediocre to bad).
Beilein made a very smart move to go zone (which I almost always hate and which usually goes poorly) right around the time we were down 10 with about 10 min to go.
Zone was a perfect way to slow down a team that was going one-on-one exclusively and weren't threating to pass or hit threes. They did get a couple dunks/shots at the rim off drive and dishes which will happen against a zone, but we took away what had been working for them: Washington driving the lane.
3) Points in the paint. Thanks to Z, Matthews and MAAR driving the lane, we scored 40 points in the paint. I don't even what's going on anymore.
Yes, this is not your older brother's M team that wins or loses by the three. We win with defense and rebounding sometimes too! Extremely nice to be able to do that on an off day (and this day was realllllly off despite those threes being mostly great looks).
Individual shoutouts:
- Z got the appreciation thread and he was outstanding down the stretch with a couple layups and a pretty steal and pass ahead to Duncan on the break during the comeback. Then he took over in OT with two layups and a three. Despite shooting an awful 1-8 from three (and they were ugly like his freshman year) he was 6-6 (!!) from two (we won't talk about the 0-2 FTs).
- Charles Matthews deserves a lot of credit for having a good second half after a brutal first half in which he went 0-6 FGs. He went 4-5 in the second half and had all 13 of his points after the break.
- Mo Wagner had one of his steadier games as a Wolverine. He wasn't spectacular like he can be occasionally and he wasn't victimized down low like he also can be. He continues to be the anchor of our elite defensive rebounding, his only TO was a three second violation and his double-double (16 points, 10 rebounds) was big.
- MAAR: Oh yeah, the guy that had 17 pts including the game winner which was reminiscent of the Maryland game except this time instead of getting tripped he spun to the bucket for the and1.
- The 4 combo. Livers was once again very solid while in the game with his usual uber-efficient shooting (5 pts on 3 shots), rebounding (2 OREBs, 3 DREBs in just 17 min) and defense (2 blocks). But Duncan played 28 min in this one because in a zone, we can hide him on the wing and don't have to worry nearly as much about him getting beat because there's a guy waiting in the middle of the zone. He was also efficient with 10 pts on 6 shots and 2 assists to 1 TO.
This is probably the time to point out that 1 TO of Robinson's was a travel to give Minn the ball back with M up 3 with 8 seconds to go after being intentionally fouled multiple times. This was the worst call/no-call of the season in a season filled with them. The ref was standing five feet away from this happening and despite knowing Minnesota was trying to foul, and despite them doing a good job of it, he did not call it. If we had lost, this call would have been the story of the game. Refs had to be relieved that we won.
Minnesota, of course, hit a three to tie it on a play on which we probably missed a switch, very similar to the Maryland three to take the lead. Luckily we were up three this time so it just meant OT, but that makes it all the more inexcusable to give up an open three when you should be a lot less concerned about giving up a two.
Perspective: we won a game in which we shot terribly, and in this one, it wasn't opponent induced, we were getting shots we wanted. It happens. That we got the W because of our defense and rebounding is very encouraging for the future when we'll almost always shoot better than this. There's been some grumbling about the team since the MSU game, but remember:
1) M covered the spread in each of our last three games: Rutgers, Purdue and Northwestern. Not sure if we fans just aren't used to winning with great defense and meh offense and that's what makes it seem like we aren't playing well, but despite expectations being high for us right now (on the form of point spreads), we still exceeded those expectations in our three previous games.
2) In our six games since MSU, we have been the 42nd best team in the country per Bart Torvik's rankings. So we've still played like a top 50 team despite clunkers at Nebraska and today's...whatever that was. To put that in perspective, teams that have played worse during that time: Kentucky, Rhode Island, Creighton, Clemson, Wich St. Gonzaga....those are all teams projected to be higher seeded than M. That's pretty good for this being a so-called "bad" stretch.
[Hit THE JUMP for more photos and the box score.]
February 4th, 2018 at 8:43 AM ^
a service dog. He blew numerous obvious calls in the game.
February 4th, 2018 at 9:12 AM ^
February 4th, 2018 at 8:54 AM ^
February 4th, 2018 at 9:13 AM ^
February 4th, 2018 at 9:24 AM ^
February 4th, 2018 at 9:28 AM ^
February 4th, 2018 at 9:30 AM ^
February 4th, 2018 at 9:52 AM ^
and with no fluff or filler content-thanks Trueblue!
February 4th, 2018 at 9:52 AM ^
recap. I for one like the way the fellas are driving the ball to the bucket.
February 4th, 2018 at 10:00 AM ^
February 4th, 2018 at 10:01 AM ^
have? It felt like it was an unusually small number. I think that was a big part of our offensive inefficiency. Give Minn credit for getting back.
February 4th, 2018 at 10:05 AM ^
Practice them more, go to a psychologist, see a hypnotist, healthier eating, wear your lucky socks, no sex with the groupies in West Quad and/or your lucky socks.
Anything.
But god almighty - please - start hitting your free throws, Matthews and Z!
February 4th, 2018 at 10:07 AM ^
February 4th, 2018 at 10:54 AM ^
that MAAR will be fine. He was just watching Matthews clank them, and wondering if the rim and/or ball were cursed. Like when you are golfing, and watch the guys before you slice their drives into the woods. Gets into your head when you tee off...
Matthews and Z - when they step to the line, you can see the consternation in their face. They truly believe that the ball is not going in, and are just praying it does.
February 4th, 2018 at 10:13 AM ^
February 4th, 2018 at 11:10 AM ^
I think it's up in the air for Wagner - he seems like a borderline 1st rounder. Matthews's stock has probably slipped and now I'd guess he'll be back.
February 4th, 2018 at 12:03 PM ^
At this point I can't imagine Matthews being anything but a late second round flier. He really should return for another season.
Moritz is harder to peg. He was right on the edge of being a first rounder last season and I don't really know that his stock has changed a whole lot thus far. One point in his favor is his dramatic improvement on the defensive glass. He is the 28th best D-rebounder in the game, grabbing 26.6% of all defensive rebounds when on the floor.
February 4th, 2018 at 5:51 PM ^
February 5th, 2018 at 12:47 AM ^
More than you'd think. The proof is in Michigan's incredible improvement in defensive rebound percentage. If it were just a reallocation of last year's rebounds, this team would still routinely be allowing teams to rebound 30+% of of their misses. They're not doing that any more.
Some of the credit goes to Charles Matthews, but much of it goes to Mo.
(And that's putting aside the commentary from announcers, commentators, etc. of how much better he's been boxing out and fighting for rebounds).
February 5th, 2018 at 2:55 PM ^
If it were just a case of Moritz absorbing the rebounds that Walton and Wilson got last season, then Michigan would be relatively static in their opponents' O-Reb percentage.
That's not the case, though. Last season, Michigan was 212th out of 351 D1 teams, allowing their opponents to grab 30% of their missed shots. This season, Michigan opponents are only rebounding 23% of their missed shots, which is good for 12th in the country. This is Beilein's best defensive rebounding team by far in the KenPom era (since 2001-2002).
February 4th, 2018 at 10:17 AM ^
February 4th, 2018 at 10:19 AM ^
February 4th, 2018 at 10:56 AM ^
Glad I was skiing deer valley in lieu of watching this one.
I will watch the tape. We should be playing much better. But a W is a W.
Hard to say for Beilein team. But Hope we can get the offense going.
Shot the lites out in the next one boys. Go Blue.
February 4th, 2018 at 11:04 AM ^
While it's fair to be appalled by the absolutely horrible free throw shooting, the players did a lot of good things yesterday and put in a lot of effort. And even if they play worse and lose, I appreciate their efforts and root for them.
February 4th, 2018 at 11:07 AM ^
While it's fair to be appalled by the absolutely horrible free throw shooting, the players did a lot of good things yesterday and put in a lot of effort to ultimately win the game. And even if they play worse and lose, I appreciate their efforts and root for them.
As for Z, I'm a big fan despite his free throw shooting problems. He did a lot of great things and made some phenomenal plays.
February 4th, 2018 at 11:19 AM ^
Matthews makes the same adjustment Irvin made last year,relinquishing the alpha dog role to Wagner.Last year Irvin's game improved when Walton raised his game to a new level which put Irvin into a 'supporting cast' role.The offense should run thru Mo not Matthews.The Minnesota game was a prime example,1st half Matthews had the ball to often,forced way to many drives,in the 2nd half JB had Maar or Z run pnr with Mo which was effective.Offense was noticably better in the 2nd half.To use an old cliche,Matthews needs to let the game come to him rather than forcing it.
February 4th, 2018 at 11:51 AM ^
Beilein was livid about the Duncan no-call. There is supposed to be a cylinder bubble around a player that opponents cannot violate and it was clear as fucking day that the Minny players were mugging the shit out of him. What is the point of rules if referees don't enforce them?
February 4th, 2018 at 12:12 PM ^
That no-call was especially egregious. I've always hated when refs call a travel that's created by the defensive player bumping or shoving, causing the player with the ball to stumble. In this case, there were two players grabbing his arms as well.
February 4th, 2018 at 1:01 PM ^
Worst call I've seen in over 50 years of playing and spectating. There's not even a close second place. I'm losing all faith in decent officiating. All.
February 4th, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^
I take from this stretch what UMhoops has taken from it. This is an above average team not a great team (and before someone says nobody is saying that there was literally a thread about winning the championship after the msu game). If you look at efficiency margins in big ten play Michigan is at about +4.5 per 100 possessions. MSU, Purdue, and OSU are all around +20. We are closer to the soft middle of the big ten in terms of team quality than competing for a big ten championship. This team is certainly capable of getting hot and making the sweet 16, but its also capable of losing to a 11 seed in the first game and barring luck in matchups the sweet 16 seems like a pretty hard ceileing for this team.
February 4th, 2018 at 2:36 PM ^
I agree they aren't a championship team by any means, but I do think they are getting dinged a bit too hard. Their celing is much higher than, say, PSU or Nebraska, the teams that are around them in the conference rankings. Over Michigan's last 10 games, they've played MSU and Purdue on the road and Purdue at home, along with that super-compressed streak of, what, 4 games in 8 days? It can mess with your efficiency and performance a bit. But holistically, Michigan is around top-25 team, while those other couple of teams are closer to top-40. And while OSU has been better than expected, they've had a pretty easy conference slate thus far and I do wonder if their numbers come back to earth a bit as they play teams like Michigan and Purdue on the road.
But if the ceiling for this team in the Sweet 16, that would be fine for me. I don't think anyone expected them to be a top-25 team this year, but here we are. Not every year is a championship run.
February 4th, 2018 at 12:58 PM ^
February 4th, 2018 at 1:16 PM ^
Wasn't just standard zone, either. It looked like a 3-2 or 1-2-2 zone, but they weren't just matching up one-on-one on the wings. When Mason or Washington had the ball, the point man and the high elbow man were doing a soft double team on the ball-handler. Basically had the effect of daring Mason/Washingotn to beat them with a pass (they had like 2 assists with 5 mins left in the game IIRC) or daring someone else on Minny to score.
February 4th, 2018 at 1:18 PM ^
February 4th, 2018 at 2:07 PM ^
February 4th, 2018 at 2:07 PM ^
February 4th, 2018 at 2:24 PM ^
February 4th, 2018 at 2:37 PM ^
I don't think anyone questions the importance of making free throws: points are points, and we're giving away too many at the line. But the tone of the conversation should be higher than "I can make them in my backyard so these guys suck."
February 4th, 2018 at 3:58 PM ^
February 4th, 2018 at 3:50 PM ^
February 4th, 2018 at 4:38 PM ^
Michigan is currently 342nd out of 351 teams in free throw shooting percentage this year. We were ninth last year, despite Irvin hitting under 70%. On something that seems so mechanical/mental, I don't see how a team as a whole can drop 300+ spots in a year and how there hasn't been any mprovement since the clunker of a game against UCLA. You would imagine whatever Beilein & co. were doing the last few years would be enough.
Basically, while Duncan has improved from a 78.1% FT shooter last year to 92.6% this year and MAAR has improved from 76.5% to 80.3% (although he's only hitting just above 50% over his past five games after starting the year hitting 36/39), Wagner's numbers have fallen by a few points, we replaced Walton's free throw attempts (which he hit at 87.6%) with Matthews' 53.5%, Irvin's 67.1% with Simpson's 47.7% and D.J.'s 83.3% with Teske's 57.1%.
February 4th, 2018 at 4:51 PM ^
And of Zavier's 31 attempts last year, he hit 22 of them (71%!). Despite shooting 13 more free throws this year, he has only hit 21 so far.
And this discrepancy between this season and last year's is even starker thanks to D.J.'s clutch free throws against Oklahoma State and Louisville (a perfect 10 for 10). We wouldn't have won either game with the group that we have now just because of free throw shooting alone.
February 4th, 2018 at 5:14 PM ^
... I always wonder, "why not give it a try?":
http://www.thepostgame.com/blog/training-day-diy/201301/rick-barry-underhanded-free-throw-shooting-technique
February 5th, 2018 at 10:43 AM ^
Same. Why the hell not? Isnt his son a player at Florida now and he does it? And had a crazy streak of consecutive FTs made last year?
February 4th, 2018 at 2:52 PM ^
Thats a pretty optomistic view of the game..I feel like I watched a entirely diifferent game than you did
February 4th, 2018 at 2:58 PM ^
Thanks for posting this.
1. What a curious team. We are #4 in the country (#1 in the BT) in TOs and #11 in the country (#1 in the BT) in DRB. These are team qualities that don't seem generally conencted; certainly, I can't recall any such connection on Beilein teams.
2. OTOH, unlike most all JB teams, this one struggles shooting the ball. Average from 3. # 342 in FT %---worst of any major team---and the latter is hard to understand. Certainly, it isn't practice or work ethic or any such speculation. My guess is it is mental/psycholgoical, and as the team struggles at the line the mental aspect of it becomes worse. I suggest hypnosis---it worked for me. [Not a joke.] But it might be as simple as the fact that UM has two guys (Matthews and Simpson) who just can't shoot free throws, for whatever reason.
3. The good news is that we don't get to the line much (that may change) and we continue to be a good defensive team and one that has the flexibility to transform to a zone (won the game) even though the strength of the team would generally be checking on the perimeter.
4. It is hard to make a prognosis for this team. One would think that a team that is average from 3, and terrible from the line, has limited post-season potential. OTOH, they have gotten hot (Purdue at Purdue) and they are a routinely good defensive team that makes few mistakes. So, I dunno.
February 4th, 2018 at 2:57 PM ^
There's a lot of butt-hurt-ness on the board for someone taking the time to write up a summary of the game when the normal crew was unable to. I, for one, am grateful for this.
February 4th, 2018 at 3:00 PM ^
February 4th, 2018 at 5:26 PM ^
As shakey as this team is, you've got to love the number of ways- and the number of players- that it can turn to in order to win. Unlike previous Beilein teams which lived and died by the 3, Michigan still has various other ways to keep it close and pull it out. I never would have expected defense and rebounding to be two of those ways, but it makes them not only fun to watch (albeit occasionally nerve-wracking), but gives them a better chance in the tournament than if they were only one or two dimensional.
February 5th, 2018 at 12:17 AM ^
was just a travesty. Those refs should be flogged for that one...
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