MBB: Minnesota Notes and Perspectives

Submitted by TrueBlue2003 on

[Ed-Ace: I'm taking time off this weekend but this diary stands in quite well for a game recap and gives me an excuse to post MG's photos.]


[This and all other photos: Marc-Gregor Campredon]

I don't like to wade into the open threads during or after a game, and since there isn't a recap posted, I wanted to make a couple notes about the game today.  It seemed like some folks were disappointed with today's game so I'm going to channel Ace and try to dish out some perspective.

A John Beilein basketball team just shot a horrific 8-32 from three, an unfathomable 12-28 FTs, watched an opposing freshman who came into the game shooting an abysmal 39/19 toss in circus shot after circus shot despite being defended pretty well....and still won.  Huh? How did that happen?

1) Rebounding.  M continues to be an elite, you heard that correctly, elite defensive rebounding team (11th in the country). Minnesota only rebounded 13% of their misses (5 OREBs) to our 26% (11 OREBs) which gave us five more shot equivalents, every one of them was needed the way we shot.

2) Defense. I thought we played pretty good defense the whole game, but Mason started the game hitting his (typically) ill-advised pull-ups from 17 feet and then Washington took over and hit everything (almsot literally as he started 9-10) he threw towards the basket despite Z being right there making it difficult most of the time.  I was like, great, thanks Brian.  You had to go write the entire preview about their awful 2 point shooting, and of course, they make them against us (and for the record it was just Mason and Washington that shot well, everyone else was mediocre to bad).

Beilein made a very smart move to go zone (which I almost always hate and which usually goes poorly) right around the time we were down 10 with about 10 min to go.

Zone was a perfect way to slow down a team that was going one-on-one exclusively and weren't threating to pass or hit threes. They did get a couple dunks/shots at the rim off drive and dishes which will happen against a zone, but we took away what had been working for them: Washington driving the lane.

3) Points in the paint. Thanks to Z, Matthews and MAAR driving the lane, we scored 40 points in the paint.  I don't even what's going on anymore.

Yes, this is not your older brother's M team that wins or loses by the three.  We win with defense and rebounding sometimes too!  Extremely nice to be able to do that on an off day (and this day was realllllly off despite those threes being mostly great looks).

Individual shoutouts:

  • Z got the appreciation thread and he was outstanding down the stretch with a couple layups and a pretty steal and pass ahead to Duncan on the break during the comeback. Then he took over in OT with two layups and a three.  Despite shooting an awful 1-8 from three (and they were ugly like his freshman year) he was 6-6 (!!) from two (we won't talk about the 0-2 FTs).
  • Charles Matthews deserves a lot of credit for having a good second half after a brutal first half in which he went 0-6 FGs.  He went 4-5 in the second half and had all 13 of his points after the break.
  • Mo Wagner had one of his steadier games as a Wolverine.  He wasn't spectacular like he can be occasionally and he wasn't victimized down low like he also can be.  He continues to be the anchor of our elite defensive rebounding, his only TO was a three second violation and his double-double (16 points, 10 rebounds) was big.
  • MAAR: Oh yeah, the guy that had 17 pts including the game winner which was reminiscent of the Maryland game except this time instead of getting tripped he spun to the bucket for the and1.
  • The 4 combo.  Livers was once again very solid while in the game with his usual uber-efficient shooting (5 pts on 3 shots), rebounding (2 OREBs, 3 DREBs in just 17 min) and defense (2 blocks). But Duncan played 28 min in this one because in a zone, we can hide him on the wing and don't have to worry nearly as much about him getting beat because there's a guy waiting in the middle of the zone. He was also efficient with 10 pts on 6 shots and 2 assists to 1 TO.

This is probably the time to point out that 1 TO of Robinson's was a travel to give Minn the ball back with M up 3 with 8 seconds to go after being intentionally fouled multiple times.  This was the worst call/no-call of the season in a season filled with them.  The ref was standing five feet away from this happening and despite knowing Minnesota was trying to foul, and despite them doing a good job of it, he did not call it. If we had lost, this call would have been the story of the game. Refs had to be relieved that we won.

Minnesota, of course, hit a three to tie it on a play on which we probably missed a switch, very similar to the Maryland three to take the lead. Luckily we were up three this time so it just meant OT, but that makes it all the more inexcusable to give up an open three when you should be a lot less concerned about giving up a two.

Perspective: we won a game in which we shot terribly, and in this one, it wasn't opponent induced, we were getting shots we wanted.  It happens.  That we got the W because of our defense and rebounding is very encouraging for the future when we'll almost always shoot better than this. There's been some grumbling about the team since the MSU game, but remember:

1) M covered the spread in each of our last three games: Rutgers, Purdue and Northwestern. Not sure if we fans just aren't used to winning with great defense and meh offense and that's what makes it seem like we aren't playing well, but despite expectations being high for us right now (on the form of point spreads), we still exceeded those expectations in our three previous games.

2) In our six games since MSU, we have been the 42nd best team in the country per Bart Torvik's rankings.  So we've still played like a top 50 team despite clunkers at Nebraska and today's...whatever that was.  To put that in perspective, teams that have played worse during that time: Kentucky, Rhode Island, Creighton, Clemson, Wich St. Gonzaga....those are all teams projected to be higher seeded than M.  That's pretty good for this being a so-called "bad" stretch.

[Hit THE JUMP for more photos and the box score.]

Full photo gallery.

Comments

L'Carpetron Do…

February 5th, 2018 at 12:19 AM ^

I thought when DUncan was getting fouled Beilein was even trying to call a timeout too.  And they wouldn't give the TO either.  One ref fuckued up that play in two different ways to send it into overtime (actually it didn't even look like a travel to me, either so maybe that's three different ways?!).  Thanks college basketball officiating!

I was ticked at that point and had to run out so I didn't watch overtime.  GLad they pulled it out but that was grinding on me!

It is remarkable how poorly they played and still came away with the win.  I want them to start playing great offense like they usually do, then they'll be dangerous.

ca_prophet

February 5th, 2018 at 2:34 AM ^

... because they're an easy way to get better.  Larry Bird's famous advice to people wanting to know how to win more is just that "Make more free throws".

It's easy because as others have noted, for most players it is largely mental.  The way for them to get better is to practice and get in the zone where they can tune everything else out and repeat the mechanics consistently.

For some players though, it's a matter of rebuilding their mechanics because of some flaw.  Shaq rather famously had a broken wrist as a teen that healed crookedly that made his free throw shooting near-comical at times.  One solution there is to adopt the granny shot - Rick Barry shot over 90% in a long career in the NBA, and it is likely the best way in the long run:

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/apr/26/granny-style-is-best-wa…

However, even great free throw shooters miss 1 out of 20.  Good free throw shooters miss 1 out of 4, and some back-of-the-envelope-math will tell you that something like 1 out of 20 games will end up being a brick fest for average shooting teams.

Anyway, yes, the team will be in trouble if they keep shooting like this, and unless they get better and more consistent it will likely cost them a game.  But to suggest that they're not working hard enough because they've had a couple of bad games from the charity stripe says more about the suggester than the team.

 

Perkis-Size Me

February 5th, 2018 at 8:31 AM ^

Surprised that there really isn't any mention of the free throw shooting, which should've cost Michigan the game. It absolutely would've cost them the game against a better team, and if it doesn't improve, it WILL cost a game. Whether it's in the regular season or god forbid in the tournament. 

I get that we'll almost never be perfect from the line. Sometimes shots are missed. It happens. Even Stauskas and Walton missed shots from time to time. But 12 of 28 from the FT line at a rate of 43% is bad. Really bad. Especially against a team like Minnesota. Even making just one more likely prevents the team from even needing to go to OT. 

I'm hopeful that Saturday was just an aberration and Beilein can ultimately just chalk it up to "being one of those days." Got the win and that's really what matters. But if we see the same struggles again tomorrow against Northwestern, the team will have a real situation to deal with, and everyone left on our schedule won't at all be afraid to foul if they've got fouls to give. 

Indy Pete - Go Blue

February 5th, 2018 at 9:50 AM ^

It is shocking that Michigan got away with another absolute free throw clunker in a close game. It is odd to watch, as we generally and appropriately give Coach B credit for his attention to detail, but we continue to see Z handling the ball in crunch time instead of having MAAR as the primary ball-handler. There was a very late shift in this regard in this game, but something we should expect to change earlier in crunch time starting this week. One thing I appreciate is the heart of this team and their ability to overcome terrible offensive stretches and free throw performances and still manage to win ugly. After all, a win is a win, and they are keeping them coming!

PeteM

February 5th, 2018 at 12:17 PM ^

I know nothing says entitled Michigan fan like complaining about wins, but I also understand some of the disatisfaction.  This offense seems to get stuck a lot.  This may be an exaggeration, but I feel like the "10,9, 8" shot clock countdown from students started on 50 percent of our possessions before I saw anything start to develop on the offensive end.  This reminds me a bit of last football season, where we were winning games against Purdue, Cincinnati, Indiana etc. but looking so unimpressive on offense that it felt like it would eventually come back to haunt us.

Again, I'm glad that rebounding and overall defense is improved, and I feel like there we have the weapons to score more consistently with guys like Matthews, Wagner, Rahk, Poole, Robinson etc.  If that happens I really think we can play with anyone in the conference.