What do you predict for balance of basketball season
I'm curious what you think the outlook is for the balance of the basketball season. So far, the team is 9 - 3. Our next two games shouldn't have been scheduled: they are terrible in ranking, and will bring down Michigan's RPI. Still, Michigan should finish the calendar year at 11 - 3.
Looking ahead, the Big 10 schedule begins in January. I think Michigan will struggle to beat either MSU or Purdue. If true, that would be 3 losses, plus the December loss to OSU. Do you see any other losses in the Big 10? The only other loss I really see is perhaps against Maryland on the road. That would give UM a record of 13 - 5 in the Big 10. This would mean 23 - 7 overall, and third place in the Big 10.
I suppose Michigan could manage to lose other games. Anything is possible. And I suppose that as bad as Duncan has been with the 3 point shot, reverting to the mean could happen, and he could have several lights out nights in the Big 10. Anyway, the year could end fairly well, and Michigan could end up with a bit better seed in the NCAA tournament. (Currently, Lunardi has them as an 8 - 9 seed, which is almost completely meaningless.)
December 18th, 2017 at 2:50 PM ^
December 18th, 2017 at 2:50 PM ^
December 18th, 2017 at 2:56 PM ^
December 18th, 2017 at 2:59 PM ^
I see us as an 8-9 seed with an early exit
Next year the real fun gets going.
December 18th, 2017 at 4:23 PM ^
December 18th, 2017 at 5:17 PM ^
The incoming class is one of, if not the best, Beilein's had a Michigan. We'll never get a Duke or Kentucky style class of one-and-dones cause we're not Duke or Kentucky.
We'll miss MAAR, but Poole will be great. Robinson may not be a starter come tourament time and Livers already looks like an able replacement. There is no guarantee Matthews leaves after this year unless he blows during BIG play and/or the post season. Wagner is probably gone, but it's definitely possible he still gets a 2nd round grade after this year due his defense and lack of NBA measurables.
Even if we do lose both Wagner and Mathews (plus DR & MAAR) the young core of Teske, Poole, Livers, Brazdeikus and Johns is very promising. Simpson/Brooks/Dejulus looks very solid at PG. I also think Austin Davis will be a big contributor by the time he's an upperclassmen.
December 18th, 2017 at 6:42 PM ^
two of the three guys that replace them will be better (one of which is likely to be replaced as a starter this year).
Already, our backup bigs are better than the starters in a lot of ways. Our starting big combo is a net negative 0.15 points per possession against teams in kenpom top 100 (which is a lot worse than the combos involving one non-starter). Our starting 4 is Just A Shooter and a huge defensive liability and our starting 5 flashes brilliance at times but is still somewhat inconsistent and a defensive liability as well. He will be a loss as he does some things that will be irreplaceable, but that's mitigated by some of the negatives he brings.
MAAR is a nice role player, but he's not a great shooter (only 41.5 eFG% this season) and Poole could easily be an improvement if he keeps progressing.
Matthews is the wild card. If he leaves, improvement will depend on how well the very highly rated and deep incoming class can contribute. If he comes back, improvement is almost certain, and it could be a big improvement if the incoming class is as good as advertised.
December 18th, 2017 at 6:37 PM ^
The talent coming in next year, with the freshman on the team now, I only see good things. That much depth is what wins you championships.
I like the squad now, please dont get me wrong, i think we will make some noise...but the overall athleticm and talent of our young guys now and coming in is quite high.
December 18th, 2017 at 3:00 PM ^
Michigan still is predicted to have a 10-8 conf record. I'd say 13-5 is a little too high. But I definitely think 11-7 is attainable, maybe 12-6.
Michigan has been 3-6 and 3-5 on the road in the B1G the last two years, 4 road games against top 40 teams in MSU, Purdue, Maryland, PSU(!?!?!). Could definitely see those being losses.
In Michigan's favor, I think if you're a team who's weakness is scoring (Texas), you're gonna have a bad time. Michigan even when not making a ton of 3s is efficient enough to win. That's why I think they can win @Wisco even though that's typically been a tough road victory.
I didn't think Michigan would make the tournament a couple weeks ago, but wins against UCLA and Texas are enough to tell me they'll make it
December 18th, 2017 at 3:02 PM ^
Technically they're 10-3, but 9-3 for the purposes of RPI because of the game against Chaminade. Those LSU/OSU losses are killers (both games they should've won tbh). If this team is 12-1 with their only loss at UNC in a game in which they were competitive for 15 minutes, we're thinking Sweet 16 seed right now. As far as how I see it shaking out...
Alabama A&M - W (11-3, 1-1)
Jacksonville - W (12-3, 1-1)
at Iowa - L (12-4, 1-2)
vs Illinois - W (13-4, 2-2)
vs Purdue - W (14-4, 3-2)
at State - L (14-5, 3-3)
vs Maryland - L (14-6, 3-4)
at Nebraska - W (15-6, 4-4)
vs Rutgers - W (16-6, 5-4)
at Purdue - L (16-7, 5-5)
vs Northwestern - W (17-7, 6-5)
vs Minnesota - W (18-7, 7-5)
at Northwestern - W (19-7, 8-5)
at Wisconsin - W (20-7, 9-5)
vs Iowa - W (21-7, 10-5)
vs Ohio State - W (22-7, 11-5)
at Penn State - L (22-8, 11-6)
at Maryland - L (22-9, 11-7)
This seems super reasonable to me. Probably a 6-seed.
December 18th, 2017 at 3:11 PM ^
I would change @Iowa to a W and @Northwestern to a L; otherwise I would agree with what you have.
Bottom line is to protect home court and steal a few on the road and this team will be in good shape at tournament time.
December 18th, 2017 at 3:12 PM ^
That's fair. I still think the games at Iowa and Penn State are very winnable. If they can begin with beating Iowa, that could set the tone for the rest of the year. We will see if Michigan can revert to the norm with better free throw and 3 point shooting percentages.
December 18th, 2017 at 3:59 PM ^
Oh, absolutely winnable, but I feel like Iowa and Wisconsin are just two places that always give Michigan fits. Wisconsin is so bad this year, though, that I don't think it'll matter.
December 18th, 2017 at 3:04 PM ^
Run the table.
Natty.
Shock the World.
December 18th, 2017 at 3:05 PM ^
December 18th, 2017 at 5:08 PM ^
...we outperform the (current) kenpom projection:
While I think Ace has sufficiently killed the Beilien-teams-always-improve assumption, I do actually think this team will improve over what kenpom's algorithm is using right now.
Primary reasons:
1) The rotation is still fairly unsettled and there are changes that could likely immediately improve performance without any individual player improvement. Those changes involve getting Livers and Teske more time and Duncan less time with more Wagner/Livers and Teske/Robinson combos that statistically are working better.
2) We have a lot of young, promising pieces that I do expect to continue to improve: Livers, Poole, Brooks, Z and Teske all should improve with more experience.
So I feel good about us going 11-7 or 12-6 in conference. Highly unlikely we pull of 13-5 like the OP is predicting because road games in the conference are hard. We'll drop at least three of @Iowa, @Nebraska, @Nebraska, @Wisconsin, @PSU and @Maryland. Which leaves us with highly likely losses @MSU and @Purdue and we'd have to win all our home games (doable but unlikely) to get to 12-6. Other path to 12-6 is to win four of those road 50/50ish games and drop only one at home. Seems like the reasonable ceiling.
December 18th, 2017 at 3:05 PM ^
Yes, the B1G is down, but shaky teams will find ways to lose regardless of the competition level. The OSU loss was a perfect example of that.
December 18th, 2017 at 3:12 PM ^
If we lost to OSU...we're going to lost some more games that we should theoretically win. I'm hoping for 11-7...and it probably should be 13-5 (according to us and the potential most of see out of this team).
E.g...Iowa has looked like dogshit. We will come down here to start the real part of the conference schedule and shoot 18% from three and Tyler Cook will score 28 with Moe on bench in fould trouble most of the game and Bohanon goes 6/7 from three and lose by 15 because...college kids and sports!
December 18th, 2017 at 3:11 PM ^
December 18th, 2017 at 3:14 PM ^
Average.
December 18th, 2017 at 3:15 PM ^
A couple dud halves where we lose games we shouldn't, a couple where Robinson and MAAR are hitting everything and we destroy a good team. 10-8/11-7
If Poole has the game proverbially slow down and Livers' shot starts falling, a little better than that.
December 18th, 2017 at 3:19 PM ^
December 18th, 2017 at 3:21 PM ^
December 18th, 2017 at 3:43 PM ^
UNC loss was expected, bummed about LSU but early season losses happen. Duke just lost to BC which is arguably a much worse loss.
The only thing this season that has really upset me is the OSU loss. OSU is a bad team and they played like it in the first half when we were in town. But then all of a sudden our entire team just shuts down in the second half and we spoon-feed them the win. That was a bad loss to a school that inexplicably has our number on both the court and the gridiron. It would've been one thing if OSU was a title contender like they were back in Matta's heyday. But shitting yourself against a bad OSU team after you were nearly up by 20 was a bad look.
Luckily you get another shot at them on your home court, and you can bet the team will be better prepared that time around. But that, to me, is the only real stain on this season so far. I hope Michigan runs them off the floor in February.
December 18th, 2017 at 3:47 PM ^
we would have beaten OSU, I doubt we beat both UCLA and Texas, though. The team played with a sense of urgency they likely otherwise would not have in those games, based in part, on having their backs against the wall and needing a couple of meaningful OOC wins. It was also a good dose of BIG on the road action to a lot of young players who were going to get a taste of it pretty soon either way. I have a feeling they were going to have to lose one of those before they won one of them, and you could see at Texas the team start to come apart and then get its bearings. I think we will beat Iowa on the road too, owing a lot to that second half OSU experience.
December 18th, 2017 at 3:53 PM ^
I predict a final record at years end of 24-7
December 18th, 2017 at 4:00 PM ^
December 18th, 2017 at 11:21 PM ^
December 18th, 2017 at 4:03 PM ^
December 18th, 2017 at 4:52 PM ^
and win at least one game in the B1G tourney. Which should put them at 22-24 wins and between an 8 and 10 seed depending on who they beat.
At the moment I don't know if they have even beaten a single tourney team yet. VCU, Texas and UCLA are all suspect so far.
December 18th, 2017 at 5:12 PM ^
December 18th, 2017 at 5:13 PM ^
December 18th, 2017 at 5:30 PM ^
Winning on the road is far from a given....the OSU game is proof.
I predicted a 10-8 conference record before the start of Big Ten play, and am sticking by that prediction. An NCAA berth will ride on our performance in the Big Ten Tournament.
December 18th, 2017 at 6:02 PM ^
stealing a win on the road either at Purdue or at MSU to ice our tourney bid. Make sweet 16. Maybe elite 8 since Beilein teams seem to step it up a notch in the NCAA's.
December 18th, 2017 at 8:39 PM ^
If they keep developing, and the FR shooters really step up, I can see 13-5 in the BIG and 23-7 overall.
How would you feel if they won that heartbreaker against LSU, showed well against ND (even won!) and didn't shit the bed in Columbus? We'd be looking at a top 15 team and this discussion would be very different. That's the high ceiling for this team. There is plenty of unselfish talent, and a much improved defense. 3rd in BIG and Sweet 16 or better.
December 18th, 2017 at 11:26 PM ^
over LSU and OSU, we'd be around 30th in kenpom, and still without a win over a ranked team. We'd probably be ranked in the AP, but ten more points in those two games doesn't make us a top 15 team.
I do think with the right rotations and improvement from the young guys, we could be a sweet 16 team.
December 18th, 2017 at 8:57 PM ^
A loss at Iowa is expected and the team will tread water from there on out.
Beat Iowa and unreasonable expectations will follow (I may lead the way.)
December 18th, 2017 at 11:28 PM ^
we could (should) get off to a really good start in conference play.
December 18th, 2017 at 11:41 PM ^
I'm just going to say that we will be exceed expectations. I like the team. Not an indepth answer. oh well. Next year is going to be even better.
December 19th, 2017 at 12:33 PM ^
We typically play above our heads against Purdue, I wouldn't be shocked if we beat them in Ann Arbor.
However, your assumption that we'll simply win all of our non Purdue/MSU games is crazy. We, just like nearly every team ever, even conference champions, will lose at least a few, probably on the road, to average/lower Big Ten teams.
Although the Big Ten is weak, we have a harder than average schedule.
To me, the pivotal stretch to this team's season will be from January 29th-February 11th:
- Northwestern (Home)-above average Big Ten team, tournament contender.
- Minnesota (Home)-Top 4 Big Ten team at home, near tournament lock.
- Northwestern (Road)-above average Big Ten team, tournament contender.
- Wisconsin (Road)-Bad team, but in an environment that's traditionally very difficult for wins to come by.
Michigan probably needs to go 3-1 in that stretch to finish in the top 4 of the Big Ten and achieve a ranking of 7 or higher in the tournament. If Michigan finishes 1-3 or 0-4 here, we will be on the bubble entering the home stretch (assuming we lose to MSU/Purdue earlier in January).
Additionally, the first game of the New Year, at Iowa, is pivotal. Iowa and Wisconsin are both bad this year, but those venues are traditionally very tough places for us to win. A sweep there would portend good results.
This season feels like much more of an unknown, with a high amount of toss ups. The only game I feel is a 75%+ chance of a loss is @MSU, but the only games I think are 75%+ chance of a win are vs. Illinois, Rutgers and Iowa. But maybe not even Rutgers is that high after they beat Seton Hall and played MSU reasonably close. Idk.
I'd be happy with 11-7 or better, satisfied/content with 10-8, and disappointed with 9-9 or worse.
December 19th, 2017 at 2:38 PM ^
My best guess is that they finish the conference with a 11-7 record and firmly on the bubble needing to win at least two games in the conference tourney to have any shot of getting in the Big Dance.