Analysis of Recruiting Classes
I admit, this current stage of the program sucks. I hate losing. I hate losing close games. I hate losing to rivals.
With that said, It is interesting to look at the effectiveness of Harbaugh's first recruting classes:
2013 (Hokes Second to Last Class) 27 Commits, 14 Reasonably Contributing (Just 5 available as RS Seniors)
2014: (Hokes Last Class) 16 Commits, 8 reasonably contributing (This years true seniors)
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2015: 14 Commits, 7 reasonably contributing (and he had a couple weeks to pull this class together)
2016: 29 Commits, 23 reasonably contributing
2017: 30 Commits, 12 Already making some contribution as true freshman. (Jury is out because of redshirting)
Let's put this in context -- More true freshman are seeing the field then true seniors. There are more members of the 2016 class contributing, then 2013-2014 combined. In a game where experience and age/development matters... that is heavily skewed against our favor.
Lots of young guys are gaining valuable game experience. Next year, the 2016 group will be Juniors with 23 of them having experienced significant game time. I know the sky is dark now, but I think we will "turn the corner" next year behind a killer running attack and smothering defense, and DPJ/Black/Gentry/McKeon making things interesting in the passing game. I like the direction the DNA is pointing.
November 20th, 2017 at 8:23 AM ^
The one thing that the more vociferous elements of the "maybe Harbaugh isn't the guy" crowd are forgetting sometimes is that all the eggs are in this basket. That was made very clear in the beginning, and in my opinion, this is the right basket to have them in. The question always was about when we would reach ignition and really take off, if you will.
November 20th, 2017 at 9:52 AM ^
Losing hope in Harbaugh would turn M football into a broken program. He should get at least a few more years of slack. Even then his life is perfect here and he is getting every tool he needs to succeed. Absent a scandal on par with putting in a visibly concussed player this ire is unfounded. A decade of frustration was worth the Harbaugh hire alone.
November 20th, 2017 at 1:36 AM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 1:52 AM ^
Two really young teams with excellent coaches played an ugly game against each other in shit weather. One of them fumbled three times and threw two interceptions and the other didn't. The one that didn't do those things won.
November 20th, 2017 at 2:05 AM ^
I hope my payment cleared for the subscription to your newsletter.
November 20th, 2017 at 9:48 AM ^
LMAO. Excellent coaches do not switch to an air raid offense in a hurricane. Michigan got schooled in the coaching department that day.
November 20th, 2017 at 1:50 AM ^
What's missing from this analysis is the unimpressive senior and redshirt senior classes from Hoke. Here's the 2014 class from Hoke which includes the following contributors. Starters for this year are in bold:
Brandon Watson
Chase Winovich
Lawrence Marshall
JBB
Brian Mone - Starter sometimes?
Wilton Speight - Starter if not injured?
Then we have the 2013 class which looked impressive, but is virtually nonexistent:
Henry Poggi
Mo Hurst
Mike McCray
Patrick Kugler
Khalid Hill
November 20th, 2017 at 2:17 AM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 2:45 AM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 8:04 AM ^
Do you not see the 2018 class coming in? From here out, expect 20-24 recruits/signing period as it evens out. Some years may be more, some less, depends on transfers, injuries, etc... But it'll mostly be evened out. As the Jr & Sr classes are playing, the Fr & Soph will be learning. That is how you roll experience - it is exactly what Bama and OSU have been doing for years, and what Clemson has started doing, as well. Michigan will get there with Harbaugh, but it doesn't come overnight.
November 20th, 2017 at 9:10 AM ^
20-24 per year would be about perfect. They just need to eliminate those down years not necessarily in talent but in development, where they are relying on 1st and 2nd year guys to carry the team.
November 20th, 2017 at 9:41 AM ^
Yes. This year is an aberration from that stand point. Because of the crappy 2013-14 classes, and the (less than) partial 2015 class, we're in this boat. Going forward, it should be much better. Although there'll still be some inexperience next year, with the RS Fr and true Spoh, it will look better. This year was always going to be iffy, and we've experienced the worst case because of injuries.
November 20th, 2017 at 9:39 AM ^
what would you like them to do? not take the talent and keep it at 20-24 for those classes? Hoke's inability to hold on to recruits the previous two classes and harbaugh having no time in the other class caused this. It will even out, but at the time you have to stockpile.
November 20th, 2017 at 2:51 AM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 9:46 AM ^
Nope! Gotta throw jump balls to McDoom and Crawford! Sorry, not enough passes to go around
November 20th, 2017 at 4:22 AM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 5:51 AM ^
Go Blue!
November 20th, 2017 at 6:40 AM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 7:18 AM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 8:00 AM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 8:28 AM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 8:54 AM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 12:03 PM ^
We finished 3rd in our division, lost the bowl game, and were ranked #10 to end the year. I don't think the poster was "mad" about not having a perfect season, but last year was ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ relative to our talent.
November 20th, 2017 at 7:21 AM ^
It's hard to not fall into this kind of outlook when you are 3-16 against your rivals over the last 19 games. Unfortunately, it's where I am now too.
Turn it around next year, as in win a god damn conference title, and I'm back on the optimist train.
November 20th, 2017 at 8:08 AM ^
Go the fuck away. It's people like you that nobody on the 'optimist train' cares about. You're not a fan, you're a front runner that refuses to look at context.
November 20th, 2017 at 10:12 AM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 10:37 AM ^
What does anything Rich Rod and Hoke did as coach - other than send Michigan football into a death spiral - have anything to do with Harbaugh? Context - what was Harbaugh left with from Hoke? What is he coaching with this year? Context - he's got a very inexperienced group this year, supplemented with upper-classmen that, mostly, never saw the field until they were the default option. Context - a rash of injuries to starters. Context - three QB's this year (I feel like a MD fan).
My head isn't buried in sand - I realize what context is.
November 20th, 2017 at 10:52 AM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 11:42 AM ^
Harbaugh's record looks bad, no denying that. But again - context!
He's 0-2 to OSU (most likely 0-3 soon). The 2015 team got whooped - we didn't expect a win, but didn't see the whoopin' either. Last year was double OT, in the truck stop, with a broken QB and shitastic officiating.
MSU = 1-2. Batshit crazy finish in 2015, when it should have been an easy win for playoff bound MSU, and 5 turn overs in a 4-point loss this year with a backup QB in a monsoon.
Context. The record sucks, but put them in context and you'll avoid looking like the total dipshit you now look like.
November 20th, 2017 at 1:00 PM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 1:22 PM ^
2015 OSU - the entire world knew that the middle of Michigan's defense wasn't holding up in the running game. Meyer exploited that with a team tailor made to exploit that - something we also knew going in. Rudock got injured, and Durkin never adjusted.
Context means context - you know, where reasons are applied. I don't call them excuses, but explaining a loss with some context to it makes a world of difference over a broad statement. YOu say last years team was "absolutely loaded", and I'll disagree with that. The offense was still limited - there was no elite talent at QB (Speight played better than we all thought he would), WR, and RB. And the senior laden OL was above average because they were mostly seniors. Still couldn't do much of anything in space...
As far as "fire Harbaugh", you crapped on me to defend a guy that said exactly that if he didn't deliver a conf title next year. So yeah, you should own that. And yes, that groups you with a bunch of dipshits. If it doesn't fit, then don't defend those who want him fired (there are some...)
BTW, I do put that Iowa game on the coaches - that game plan sucked.
November 20th, 2017 at 2:00 PM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 2:19 PM ^
"Turn it around next year, as in win a god damn conference title, and I'm back on the optimist train."
--NuckyT
Those are his words - he demands a conf title, or else. Whatever. You feel to defend that shit, I'm not going to. However, I am sorry that you don't have it in you to see positives anywhere.
November 20th, 2017 at 2:20 PM ^
November 22nd, 2017 at 2:36 PM ^
Yet Harbaugh received zero credit for developing them. But, he gets alot of blame for the two subsequent fire tire classes. It's a double standard heralded by the trolls trumopeting the "facts".
November 20th, 2017 at 10:18 AM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 10:21 AM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 10:46 AM ^
"Turn it around next year, as in win a god damn conference title, and I'm back on the optimist train."
You didn't acknowledge anything, you demand a conference title, or bust. Stop changing your words because you can't edit them.
I get the frustration - I'm there, too. But I also recognize that the worst case scenario has played out for this team. From Spring on, we all said 8-4 to 10-2, and here we are. We've lost the starting - and backup - QB's, and the (now) 3rd stringer is not capable. (Assuming Peters is out, we'll be playing the 3rd string QB with te 4th string backing him up.) We've replaced the season starting RT for performance. We've lost the leading WR (Black), with nagging injuries for the other 2 of the top 3 (Perry and Schoenle, Crawford has been a letdown). Against UW, Higdon was nursing a sore ankel, and Isaac was out (that's 1.5 of the three RBs).
This is a worst case season, sorry you can't see that. But your words tell the world that you're a front runner.
November 20th, 2017 at 8:11 AM ^
What is most frustrating is that there are other teams with similar issues but end up playing well. Other teams have "young" and "inexperienced" FR or SO QBs but yet those QBS play well.
We have not seen that with Michigan in a LONG time. Sure, there was Denard but he wasn't exactly the polished QB, especially in throwing the football. 2011 was a good season but the last decade of Michigan football has been atrocious.
Putting kids into the NFL is a good thing but that doesn't justify the product we are seeing on the field on Saturdays.
So yeah, it has become all about "Next Year" when it comes to Michigan football. One can only hope "next year" will be that year.
November 20th, 2017 at 10:06 AM ^
Yes, but most of those "other teams" would likely be thrilled with an 8-win season and a chance at 9.
There aren't too many national title contenders with inexperienced QBs throwing to raw WRs behind shaky pass protection.
November 20th, 2017 at 7:12 AM ^
great write up.. and where the hell are my thumbs up emojis???
November 20th, 2017 at 7:24 AM ^
I personally didn’t expect him to walk into the big ten and supplant Urban or Dantonio or just win every game and big ten and national championship just because of who he is.
I think people are pissed tho because his resume is so stellar everywhere he’s been that now that is the expectation. San Diego. Stanford. 49ers. He is a victim of his own success. And half of our fan base is insufferable.
Everywhere he’s been he has turned a perennial loser into a perennial contender. And with our talent and resources people just though it was going to be automatic. I don’t care if Michigan hires Nick Saban tomorrow....it ain’t that easy folks.
I get it but people have to realize the culture change that has already taken place. Where we are now vs four years ago isn’t even close. The record may not indicate it, but if we are lucky enough to have Harbaugh and his staff around for 10 years..I truly believe we will be rewarded. With conference titles and probably even a national title.
Everyone is sick of the “next year” talk...but hitting the reset button every three years is just stupid.
November 20th, 2017 at 8:04 AM ^
So, what does it take? 2-3 more years of beating up on Rutgers and Maryland and losing to anybody good and almost losing to any team with a pulse?
Harbaugh's recruiting is great, Hoke's was similarly very good. Harbaugh has no offensive philosophy (he's a kitchen sink or buckshot kind of guy), Peters is not very good, our OL is awful, and Don Brown is way too aggressive (yet generates no turnovers).
I don't care what Harbaugh did at Stanford or with the 49ers (just like I don't care what RR did at WVU or he's doing at UA). Harbaugh needs to make serious changes on O or needs to be fired.
November 20th, 2017 at 8:50 AM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 8:57 AM ^
Seriously, reread your post. You present no facts or opinions, call me an arrogant fucktard and somehow try and come out as the voice of reason?
I maybe wrong here (and I hope I am, because I love M), but please present some facts, data, trends, fancystats... to convince me (and others).
November 20th, 2017 at 9:52 AM ^
out how moronic your post was. This team is doing exactly what everyone with a brain thought they would do this year. 9-3 was the baseline with 8-4 or 10-2 possible depening on bounces, luck,injuries, etc...
Brandon Peters is not very good? This is the statement that puts you in the overly emotional f&cktard category of M fans. Guy has had a 3 starts as a RS Freshman and was carving up a top 3 defense nationally on any play that he had even a moment to set himself. with no running game to take off the heat. I have seen with my own eyes Elvis Grbac, Tom Brady, Brian Griese and host of other future NFL QBs that were not nearly as good as Peters in their RS Freshman year.
He may or may not end up being a star but nothing that kid has done so far allows someone to say that he is not very good.
OL has been awful - not exactly a hot take. Yes they have struggled but you know what, so have about 98% of NCAA and NFL OLs over the past several years. There are about 10 team I can count that have good OLs and that includes the NFL. DL athletes are just overwhelming OL athletes right now - trend will eventually reverse as more top prospects see the NFL opportunities on the OL.
Complaining about Don Brown? Dude has led us to top 10 defenses his first 2 years including a year after sending 9 guys to the League. Defense looks like it is going to be a monster the next 2 years. Come to think of it, this comment was equally stupid to the Peters comment.
November 20th, 2017 at 11:32 AM ^
I'll dismantle your "logic" now.
1) Nobody thought Michigan would lose to all of our rivals (or any team that doesn't suck). Everybody expected "toss ups", which aside from the MSU game and assuming OSU wins big, none of our losses were even close
2) Peters is not good. If he were, he wouldn't be 3rd string behind JOK (who is awful too). You may be a QB Guru and note that he's better than Griese, Brady, Gerbac (lol) at this point, but he is not. He does not look like a college QB. Watch the plays when he was hit hard. No feel for the pass rush, no stepping aside, no moving his feet. Those are facts.
3) I never claimed a "hot take" on the OL, but they are bad. If 98% are bad, then how bad is Michigan's?
4) Don Brown is good/ great, but he's too aggressive and good teams take advantage of that. Our fancy stats are awesome on D, because we hold Rutgers and Maryland to 200 yards, but against good teams, Brown does not mix it up. Here's another thing, if Brown was the shit, why was he 60+ before getting his 1st big time DC job (BC is not big time)?
Come to think of it, some of us do not bow to our God Harbaugh and again, I hope and want him to turn things around, but there is no semblance of offensive strategy/ cohesion... Read some other blogs where people/ coaches give actual commentary on our play. Not good and no progression from Game 1.
November 20th, 2017 at 12:02 PM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 9:57 AM ^
was the fact that these overly negative posts have made the Board not fun. If sports are not fun, then there is truly no point to partaking.
I will continue to enjoy the Harbaugh renaissance and have fun following the team. If it stops being fun, I will do something else with the very little leisure time that I have available to me.
Last post of the day for me - too busy at work for this $hit.
